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La inflación en EE.UU. cae al 2,5% en agosto, la más baja desde 2021. Descubre cómo afectó al dólar, rendimientos del Tesoro y más.

Inflación en EE.UU. baja en agosto: Impacto en el dólar y el mercado

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La economía de EE.UU. crece un 3% en el segundo trimestre, impulsando al dólar y las tecnológicas. Descubre cómo los mercados reaccionaron.

La sorprendente revisión del PIB de EE.UU. impulsa al dólar y a las tecnológicas

Las nóminas no agrícolas en EE.UU. se revisan a la baja en 818.000 empleos, generando expectativas de recortes en las tasas de interés.

La economía de Estados Unidos añade 818.000 empleos menos de lo reportado

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's unexpectedly hawkish remarks on Thursday sent markets into a tailspin. Major U.S. equity indices closed in the red, and the dollar soared for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">a fifth consecutive session</a>.
In a speech to Dallas business leaders, Powell highlighted the remarkable strength of the U.S. economy, indicating that there's no need for the Fed to &#8220;be in a hurry to lower rates.&#8221;
He reiterated the central bank's commitment to reaching its 2% inflation target, stressing the need for careful decision-making as inflation remains above desired levels.
He highlighted productivity gains, which he said have &#8220;grown faster over the past five years than at any point in the two decades preceding the pandemic,&#8221; positioning the U.S. economy as &#8220;the best-performing among major economies.&#8221;
Addressing the October <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/41971830/producer-inflation-rises-more-than-expected-in-october-should-traders-rethink-interest-rate-cut-path">producer price index (PPI) uptick</a>, Powell labeled it &#8220;more than an upward bump&#8221; but maintained confidence in the trajectory toward the 2% inflation goal.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Reassess Interest Rate Path: Traders Are Less Confident On A December Cut</h3>
Powell&#8217;s comments impacted the interest-rate market, with fed futures now reflecting a reduced likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut in December. 
The CME FedWatch tool shows the odds of such a move dropped to 58%, sharply down from around 80% earlier in the day.
The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), closed down 0.6%, fully erasing gains from last week&#8217;s rate cut. Energy was the only sector in positive territory, rising 0.4%, while industrials and health care led declines, each down 0.7%.
Top performers in the S&amp;P 500 included Tapestry Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TPR#NYSE">TPR</a>), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WYNN#NASDAQ">WYNN</a>), and First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>), which rose 12.8%, 8.7%, and 7.2%, respectively. Among the laggards were Leidos Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LDOS#NYSE">LDOS</a>) and Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>), down 13.6% and 11.4%, respectively.
Tech stocks, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), declined 0.7%, marking a fourth consecutive loss. Blue chips followed by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) slipped 0.5%, while small caps in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) underperformed, falling 1.3%.
The dollar continued to attract liquidity, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) logging a fifth consecutive gain, reaching levels last seen in late October 2023.
Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.46%. Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), marked its fifth straight loss.
In crypto markets, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was 1.7% lower in the past 24 hours to $88,013 at 5:21 p.m. ET, on track for its worst day in November.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/41984852/trumps-red-wave-pushes-emerging-market-stocks-to-2-month-lows-volatility-expected-to-remain-elevated">Trump&#8217;s Red Wave Pushes Emerging Market Stocks To 2-Month Lows: Volatility &#8216;Expected To Remain Elevated&#8217; </a></li>
</ul>
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Powell's Hawkish Remarks Shake Markets: Stocks Fall, Dollar Rockets, Bitcoin Dips

Producer inflation in October came slightly higher than anticipated Thursday, casting doubts on whether the U.S. economy's broader disinflationary trend will hold through <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">the year&#8217;s final quarter.</a>
Compared to October 2023, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 2.4% last month, up from upwardly revised 1.9% and surpassing projections of 2.3% as tracked by TradingEconomics data. It marks the first increase in the annual PPI inflation rate after three straight months of declines. 
On a monthly basis, the PPI for final demand increased by 0.2%, accelerating the previous 0.1% reading and matching economic estimates of 0.2%. 
When excluding energy and food items, core PPI was up by 0.3% from a month earlier, accelerating from the previous 0.2% but matching estimates. On an annual basis, core PPI surged from 2.8% to 3.1%, topping expectations of 3%, marking the third straight month of gains. 
&#8220;Over one-third of the rise in the index for final demand services can be traced to prices for portfolio management, which advanced 3.6%,&#8221; the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. 
On Wednesday, consumer inflation data also showed an increase in October, matching expectations. 
Prior to Thursday&#8217;s PPI report, traders assigned a 79% of chance on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jobless Claims Below Expectations</h3>
Concurrently, unemployment claims rose by 217,000 in the week ending Nov. 9, down from the previous 221,000 and below estimates of 223,000.
Continuing claims fell to 1.873 million, down from 1.892 million and below the predicted 1.88 million.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Interest rate futures showed no major reactions following Thursday&#8217;s data releases, with speculators assigning a 77% chance of a 0.25% cut in December, as per CME FedWatch Tool. 
The higher-than-expected PPI report pushed Treasury yields slightly higher, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.48%. 
The dollar continued to hammer all other currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – strengthening to levels last seen in October 2023. The greenback is also on track for a fifth straight session of gains. 
U.S. equity futures were mostly flat at 8:50 a.m. in New York. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41955977/trump-ignites-investor-optimism-for-growth-small-caps-us-dollar-bank-of-america-survey">Trump Ignites Investor Optimism For Growth, Small Caps, US Dollar: Bank Of America Survey</a></li>
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Producer Inflation Rises More Than Expected In October: Should Traders Rethink Interest Rate Cut Path?

On Wednesday, November 13th, U.S. markets ended mixed. The Dow and S&amp;P 500 edged higher while the Nasdaq dipped. October CPI data met expectations, supporting bets on a December Fed rate cut. Core CPI rose 0.3%. Consumer discretionary stocks gained, driven by optimism over potential rate cuts.
According to economic data, the annual U.S. inflation rate increased to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September, matching market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.2% on a monthly basis in October.
Consumer discretionary, energy and real estate led S&amp;P 500 gains Wednesday, while tech and communication services stocks declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.11% and closed at 43,958.19, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.02% to 5,985.38, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26% to finish at 19,230.72.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.61% and ended the session at 38,504.00, led by losses in the Precision Instruments, Automobiles &amp; Parts, and Power sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 0.37% and ended the day at 8,224.00, led by gains in the IT, Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 0.02% at 23,555.50, and Nifty 500 was up 0.30% at 21,981.65, led by losses in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Healthcare, and Public Sector Undertakings sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite declined 1.73% to close at 3,379.84, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.73%, finishing the day at 4,039.62.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng slipped 1.96% and closed the session at 19,435.81.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 1.27%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 1.27%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.86%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.20%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.18% at $68.55/bbl, and Brent was up 0.19% at $72.44/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices steadied as a strong U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured the market.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.24% to $2.946.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 1.43% at $2,549.60, Silver declined 2.42% to $29.922, and Copper slipped 1.83% to $4.0088.</li>
<li>Gold fell to a two-month low as a stronger dollar and sticky U.S. inflation data weighed on prices. Copper hit a three-month low on weak Chinese stimulus and tariff concerns.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures increased 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.10% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.08%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index gained 0.52% to 107.03, the USD/JPY rose 0.45% to 156.16, and the USD/AUD rose 0.40% to 1.5481.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar reached a one-year high, driven by inflation data and Trump&#8217;s election win. Yen neared intervention levels as USD/JPY surged.</li>
</ul>
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Dollar Hits One-Year High; China Falls, Gold Hits Two-Month Low - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. dollar surged past 155.60 yen on Wednesday, hitting levels unseen <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/us-dollar">in nearly four months</a>.
What Happened: Investors piled back into yen-dollar carry trades. The speculation is that the incoming Trump administration will aggressively hike tariffs on imports.
Economists expect the planned tariffs to reshape currency markets and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">stoke U.S. inflationary pressures.</a>
The greenback&#8217;s strength against the yen in six of the past seven weeks reverses early August losses tied to weak U.S. jobs data. Bank of Japan interventions also triggered an abrupt unwind of yen-dollar carry trade positions.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Data As Expected, Dollar Momentum Unshaken</h3>
On Wednesday, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/41938762/october-inflation-rate-rises-to-2-6-as-expected-december-interest-rate-cut-remains-uncertain">U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report</a> showed inflation accelerating to 2.6% year-over-year in October 2024, meeting economists&#8217; expectations. Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 3.3% for the third straight month, also aligning with forecasts.
This in-line inflation data helped quell concerns that the Federal Reserve might consider an interest-rate pause in December. Instead, speculators are now heavily betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut. Market-implied probabilities are rising to over 80%, as per CME FedWatch.
Yet, even an in-line CPI report fueling rate-cut bets wasn't enough to hold back the dollar's momentum.
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), a trade-weighted gauge tracking the dollar, soared to its highest point in over a year as investors continued to flock to the greenback.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariff Speculation Drives Greenback Surge</h3>
Much of the dollar's recent strength can be attributed to Trump's proposed tariffs. During his campaign, Trump floated the idea of tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods. Additional hikes of 10% to 20% on imports from other countries are also expected.
Tariffs could curb U.S. demand for foreign goods, reducing the need for American companies to buy foreign currencies—a shift that would likely boost the dollar.
Additionally, tariffs might <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41545408/tariffs-are-inflationary-imf-deputy-chief-rejects-trumps-trade-policies-as-elections-loom">drive up domestic inflation</a>. That could prompt the Fed to rethink its dovish stance on rate cuts, adding even more fuel to the dollar&#8217;s rally.
George Vessey, a forex strategist at Convera, said, "Trump's policies of a trade war in which the U.S. is less exposed and more-fiscally stimulative policies are expected to boost U.S. near-term economic outperformance vs. its G10 peers further. Economic momentum has shifted back in favor of the U.S.&#8221;
As global investors recalibrate to the new political environment, expectations for the U.S. dollar have jumped.
In the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey conducted before the election, 31% of respondents expected the dollar to be a top performer in 2025, slightly behind the yen at 32%. 
After the election, the dollar shot up to the top spot, with 45% of respondents naming it as their favored currency for 2025, while the yen fell to 20%.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/11/41722178/if-trump-and-republicans-sweep-dollar-may-climb-7-but-harris-win-could-bring-5-drop-says-jpmorgan">JPMorgan's pre-election analysis</a> suggested that a "Republican sweep" scenario — a GOP majority in the House and Senate — would lead to substantial dollar gains. In this scenario, the trade-weighted dollar index is projected to gain 7.3%, with some of the biggest moves expected against the Swedish krona (SEK) at +10.8% and the euro (EUR) at +8.4%.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Election Scenario</th>
<th>USD TWI Change</th>
<th>USD vs. CNY</th>
<th>USD vs. EUR</th>
<th>USD vs. CAD</th>
<th>USD vs. CAD</th>
<th>USD vs. AUD</th>
<th>USD vs. SEK</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Republican Sweep</td>
<td>+7.3%</td>
<td>+4.4%</td>
<td>+8.4%</td>
<td>+4.7%</td>
<td>+6.1%</td>
<td>+7.9%</td>
<td>+10.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, highlighted the role of rising U.S. bond yields in supporting the dollar. "The jump in U.S. bond yields has been a major factor in the dollar's resurgence, as investors bet that the Trump presidency will, thanks to promises of tax cuts and deregulation, lead to increased economic growth. This should continue to surpass anything remotely achievable by the sclerotic economies across Europe and the UK," he said.
The prospect of new U.S. tariffs has European leaders on edge. French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted on Wednesday escalating risks for global supply chains if the U.S., Europe and China re-enter a trade war. 
American tariffs are likely to hit European exports of machinery and pharmaceuticals hard, creating potential economic headwinds for an already weak European economies.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41950023/us-stock-markets-equity-risk-premium-disappears-should-you-sell-now">US Stock Market&#8217;s Equity Risk Premium Disappears: Should You Sell Now?</a></li>
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Dollar Powers To 4-Month Highs Against Yen: Trump Tariff Expectations Spark Carry Trade Frenzy

Wall Street saw a modest rebound on Wednesday, spurred by an in-line inflation report that reinforced expectations for a December rate cut. The U.S. dollar continued to gain strength, buoyed by potential tariff tailwinds under <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">the new Trump administration.</a>
Bitcoin again captured headlines as it surged past $93,000, lifting its market capitalization to $1.8 trillion and fueling a wave of enthusiasm across crypto markets, with Dogecoin up over 12%.
The Consumer Price Index met expectations in October, with the annual headline rate increasing to 2.6% and the core <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/41938762/october-inflation-rate-rises-to-2-6-as-expected-december-interest-rate-cut-remains-uncertain">rate steady at 3.3%. </a>
The report alleviated concerns over a potential rate pause in December, driving market odds for a 25-basis-point cut from 58% to 82%, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Treasury yields eased slightly in response to the report.
By midday in New York, all major U.S. equity indices were in slightly positive territory, although with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperforming. Leading sectors included consumer discretionary and real estate, while utilities and health care lagged.
In political developments, U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) was elected as the new majority leader in a secret ballot.
The U.S. dollar, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), hit its highest level since November 2023, marking a fresh one-year high.
Gold dipped 0.6%, on track for a fourth consecutive loss.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,084.11</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,401.00</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,002.13</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,073.91</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent111224&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.3% to $598.42.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.4% to $440.97.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) flattened at $513.06.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) inched 0.3% higher to $238.1.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) outperformed, rising 1%. The&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) lagged, down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) rallied over 18% after the company announced a joint venture launch with Volkswagen valued at&nbsp;up to $5.8 billion.</li>
<li>Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALB#NYSE">ALB</a>) rose 6% after Berenberg raised the stock price target from $81 to $102.</li>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) fell 2.4% after the company announced a 4% cut to its global workforce.</li>
</ul>
Stocks reacting to earnings report were: 
<ul>
<li>Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>), up 12%</li>
<li>Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OXY#NYSE">OXY</a>), down 1.2%</li>
<li>Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLUT#NYSE">FLUT</a>), up 6.5%</li>
<li>Natera Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NTRA#NASDAQ">NTRA</a>), up 22%,</li>
<li>CAVA Group Inc., up 6.5%</li>
<li>CyberArk Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CYBR#NASDAQ">CYBR</a>), down 0.3%</li>
<li>Loar Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOAR#NYSE">LOAR</a>), down 6%</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/24/11/41940984/disney-bulls-await-earnings-for-streaming-growth-bob-iger-successor-clues">Disney Bulls Await Earnings For Streaming Growth, Bob Iger Successor Clues</a></li>
</ul>
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Stocks Edge Higher, Dollar Hits 1-Year Peak, Bitcoin Soars To $93,000: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

On Tuesday, November 12, U.S. markets ended lower as investors took profits after a post-election rally, anticipating upcoming inflation data. Worries over Trump&#8217;s inflationary policies, rising Treasury yields, and weak European markets intensified the decline.
According to economic data, U.S. consumer inflation expectations eased to 2.9% in October, down from 3% in the prior four months. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index jumped 13.4% in November to 53.2.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors declined, led by materials, health care, and real estate, while tech and communication services rose against the trend.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.86% and closed at 43,910.98, the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.29% to 5,984.00, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.09% to finish at 19,281.40.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 1.55% and ended the session at 38,740.50, led by losses in the Transportation Equipment, Shipbuilding, and Trading sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.75% and ended the day at 8,193.40, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Financials and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 1.36% at 23,559.05, and the Nifty 500 was down 1.67% at 21,957.50, led by losses in the Real Estate, Capital Goods and Metals sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 0.51% to close at 3,439.28, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.61%, finishing the day at 4,110.89.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng slipped 0.12% and closed the session at 19,823.45.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.08%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained0.12%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose0.10%.</li>
<li>U.K.'sU.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.12%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.88% at $68.70/bbl, and Brent was up 0.82% at $72.48/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose due to supply tightness but remained near two-week lows after OPEC cut its demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025, citing weakness in China.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.17% to $2.873.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.33% at $2,615.40, Silver gained 0.92% to $31.040, and Copper slipped 0.07% to $4.1338.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures decreased 0.12%, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.15%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index is up 0.02% to 105.97, the USD/JPY rose 0.22% to 154.94, and the USD/AUD rose 0.10% to 1.5321.
Image via Shutterstock

BOIL

Asia Markets Down, Europe Up, Dollar Makes 5-Month High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Monday, November 11th, U.S. markets closed higher, driven by stocks poised to benefit from Trump&#8217;s potential fiscal policies. Tesla surged, reaching a $1.1 trillion valuation, while crypto stocks rallied as Bitcoin hit a record $87,000. Traders are watching inflation data and potential Fed rate cuts closely.
Stocks approach year-end on strong gains, with the S&amp;P 500 up 26% YTD, boosted by AI optimism and Fed rate cuts. Traders await U.S. inflation data and Fed speakers, including Chair Powell, for insights on economic health and rate outlook.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while tech and real estate stocks declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.69% and closed at 44,293.13, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.10% to 6,001.35, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.06% to finish at 19,298.76.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.48% and ended the session at 39,350.50, led by losses in the Transportation Equipment, Shipbuilding, and Trading sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.13% and ended the day at 8,255.60, led by losses in the Gold, Energy and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 1.23% at 23,845.10, and Nifty 500 was down 1.33% at 22,290.05, led by losses in the Power, Public Sector Undertakings, and Capital Goods sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 1.39% to close at 3,421.97, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 slid 1.10%, finishing the day at 4,085.74.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng slipped 2.84% and closed the session at 19,846.88.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.88%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.82%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 1.16%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.95%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.91% at $68.65/bbl, and Brent was up 0.84% at $72.44/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.38% to $2.909.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.60% at $2,602.00, Silver fell 0.63% to $30.422, and Copper slipped 1.87% to $4.1493</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures decreased 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.15%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.25% to 105.81, the USD/JPY rose by 0.16% to 153.95, and the USD/AUD rose by 0.47% to 1.5282.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar hit a four-month high as investors bet on Trump&#8217;s pro-crypto and tariff-heavy agenda, lifting Bitcoin to a new peak.</li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Cool Off, Dollar Strengthens To 4-month High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Friday, November 8, U.S. markets rallied, with the S&amp;P 500 briefly surpassing the 6,000 mark and posting its most substantial weekly gain in a year. The surge was driven by Donald Trump&#8217;s election win, expectations of pro-business policies, and an anticipated Fed rate cut. Optimism over a potential Republican sweep in Congress boosted investor sentiment, pushing the Nasdaq to record highs and securing the S&amp;P&#8217;s 50th record close of the year.
According to economic data, the University of Michigan&#8217;s consumer sentiment index increased to 73 in November, marking its highest level in seven months. This figure surpassed both October&#8217;s reading of 70.5 and market expectations of 71.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors gained, led by consumer staples, utilities, and real estate, while materials and communication services lagged.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.59% and closed at 43,988.99, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.38% to 5,995.54, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.09% to finish at 19,286.78.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.18% and ended the session at 39,539.50, led by gains in the Shipbuilding, Railway &amp; Bus, and Services sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.35% and ended the day at 8,266.20, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Resources and Materials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 0.11% at 24,122.10 and Nifty 500 was down 0.32% at 22,572.70.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 0.51% to close at 3,470.07, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 0.66%, finishing the day at 4,131.13.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng fell 1.45% and closed the session at 20,426.93.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 1.24%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 1.37%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose1.20%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.90%.</li>
<li>European markets opened on a positive note, lifted by record highs on Wall Street and a recent Fed rate cut. Gains were seen across major indices, although political uncertainty lingers due to Trump&#8217;s reelection and instability within Germany&#8217;s coalition government.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.06% at $69.31/bbl, and Brent was down 1.29% at $72.92/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices remained steady as concerns over U.S. storm disruptions eased and China&#8217;s stimulus plan disappointed investors. Weak demand growth in China and expectations of increased U.S. output under Trump&#8217;s administration further weighed on the market outlook.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 6.18% to $2.834.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.71% at $2,675.60, Silver rose 0.36% to $31.562 and Copper slipped 0.24% to $4.2945</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures gained 0.37%, S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.27%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.22%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.26% to 105.27, the USD/JPY rose by 0.73% to 153.75, and the USD/AUD rose by 0.01% to 1.5180.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar strengthened to three-month high, continuing gains from Trump&#8217;s election win, which raised expectations of inflationary policies and slower Fed rate cuts. Despite a recent rate reduction, the dollar retained most of its gains, with the focus shifting to upcoming inflation data.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Mixed And Europe Up, Dollar Gains To 3-Month High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Thursday, November 8th, U.S. markets ended mixed after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, citing an eased job market and progress toward the 2% inflation target. Optimism over President-elect Donald Trump&#8217;s return lifted the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, with global markets rallying in response.
Financials led declines among S&amp;P sectors, reversing strong gains from the previous session as bank stocks fell sharply.
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25 points to a 4.5%-4.75% range, slowing the pace of easing from September&#8217;s 0.5% cut.
In economic data, U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 221,000 in late October, while Q3 nonfarm productivity increased by 2.2% and unit labor costs grew by 1.9%. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% in September, and natural gas stocks climbed by 69 billion cubic feet to 3.932 trillion.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat and closed at 43,729.34, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.74% to 5,973.10, and the Nasdaq Composite soared 1.51% to finish at 19,269.46.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.19% and ended the session at 39,468.50, led by gains in the Textile, Shipbuilding and Steel sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 0.84% and ended the day at 8,295.10, led by gains in the Gold, IT, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.     </li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 0.21% at 24,148.20, and Nifty 500 was down 0.70% at 22,645.65.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite slid 0.53% to close at 3,452.30, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 declined 1.00%, finishing the day at 4,104.05.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng fell 1.7% and closed the session at 20,728.19.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 1.09%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.99%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 1.13%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.72%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.64% at $71.19/bbl, and Brent was down 1.35% at $74.62/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices edged lower as Hurricane Rafael&#8217;s impact on U.S. output eased and markets assessed Trump&#8217;s potential policies on global supply.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.63% to $2.710.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.49% at $2,692.00, Silver fell 1.11% to $31.503, and Copper slipped 2.30% to $4.3290.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures slipped 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.14%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index declined 0.02% to 104.49, the USD/JPY was down 0.39% to 152.37, and the USD/AUD rose 0.68% to 1.5072.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar edged higher this week, buoyed by &#8220;Trump trades&#8221; but tempered by policy uncertainty. The yen rose, and the Australian dollar logged solid weekly gains.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe, Crude Oil, Gold And Dollar Cool Off - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Wednesday, November 6th, U.S. markets closed at record highs as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Investors anticipated lower taxes, deregulation, and Trump&#8217;s active stance on economic matters. The Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq surged, while bitcoin also reached new highs.
Tesla shares surged, fueled by CEO Elon Musk&#8217;s endorsement of Trump, alongside gains in Trump Media &amp; Technology Group. Treasury yields rose amid expectations that higher tariffs could drive up inflation and expand the U.S. deficit.
According to economic data, U.S. mortgage applications dropped 10.8% last week, while crude oil inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels, exceeding the forecast of 1.8 million.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, while consumer staples and real estate lagged.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3,57% to close at 43,729.93, the S&amp;P 500 rose 2.53% to 5,929.04, and the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.95% to finish at 18,983.47.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.09% and ended the session at 39,394.00, led by losses in the Fishery, Marine Transport, and Food sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 0.33% and ended the day at 8,226.30, led by gains in the Energy, Industrials and Financials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 1.18% at 24,194.60 and Nifty 500 was down 1.02% at 22,796.95, losses in the Metals, Power and Real Estate sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 2.57% to close at 3,470.66, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 soared 3.02%, finishing the day at 4,145.70.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng rose 2.02% and closed the session at 20,953.34.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.67%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 1.27%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.58%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.08%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.88% at $71.06/bbl, and Brent was down 0.71% at $74.41/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas slid 0.07% to $2.745</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.08% at $2,674.70, Silver fell 0.29% to $31.245, and Copper gained 2.28% to $4.3430.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05.45 AM ET
Dow futures climbed 0.22%, with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.19% and Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.21%.
Forex at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index declined 0.19% to 104.89, the USD/JPY was down 0.40% to 154.00, and the USD/AUD fell 0.89% to 1.5086.</li>
<li>Global stocks rose, led by optimism over potential U.S. fiscal expansion under Trump&#8217;s presidency and anticipated rate cuts from the Fed and other central banks. U.S. Treasury yields increased, while the dollar eased slightly after Wednesday&#8217;s surge.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

US Futures, European Stocks Rally Post-Trump Victory While Crude Oil And Gold Decline - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recorded its sharpest one-day rally in over eight years on Wednesday as Donald Trump secured victory in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/41772701/trumps-historic-return-7-ways-his-second-term-could-impact-the-us-economy">the 2024 presidential election. </a>
This currency-weighted gauge of the dollar – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – jumped nearly 1.8% in early New York trading, marking the steepest rise since June 24, 2016, when the British pound plummeted following the Brexit referendum, sparking a similar dollar spike.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="501" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/06083511/image-50-1024x501.png" alt="" class="wp-image-632773" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/06083511/image-50-1024x501.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/06083511/image-50-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/06083511/image-50-768x376.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/06083511/image-50-1536x752.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/06083511/image-50.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Global Forex Markets Face Wild Moves As Trump Return To White House</h3>
The dollar surged across the board, with notable gains against the euro, Chinese yuan and Mexican peso amid market concerns over potential U.S. trade tariffs under the Trump administration.
The euro, tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXE#NYSE">FXE</a>), fell below $1.07, down over 2.1% in its worst session since March 2020. 
Last week, JPMorgan had projected that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/11/41741466/if-trump-and-republicans-sweep-dollar-may-climb-7-but-harris-win-could-bring-5-drop-says-jpmorgan">a Republican clean sweep could weaken the euro</a> by as much as 8.4%, with analysts citing a potential widening in the U.S.-EU monetary policy gap. Higher inflation in the U.S. may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or hike interest rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB) could face pressure to cut rates, analysts said.
The Chinese yuan also took a hit, declining 1.2%, hitting 7.1960 — its largest drop in two years. Trump's promise to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports fueled concerns of escalating trade tensions.
&#8220;The 7.2000 level is a critical psychological threshold, which, if breached, could prompt intervention by Chinese monetary authorities," highlighted Luca Cigognini, market strategist at Banca IMI.
The Mexican peso was another major losers, slumping 2.7% to its lowest level since August 2022. 
"We anticipate that some pragmatism will prevail, with partial reversals in the medium term," said Alejandro Cuadrado, chief market strategist at BBVA.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar, though down 0.8% against the greenback, outperformed other major currencies. 
"A Republican clean sweep bodes well for U.S. economic growth and Canadian exporters," said Francesco Pesole, foreign exchange analyst at ING Group, adding that Canada's currency remains relatively insulated from U.S.-China tariff dynamics and geopolitical risks under a Trump presidency.
Below is a snapshot of U.S. dollar movements against major currencies as of Wednesday morning:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>USD vs.</td>
<td>Last</td>
<td>1-day chg (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexican Peso (MXN)</td>
<td>20.62843</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Euro (EUR)</td>
<td>0.9339</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Japanese Yen (JPY)</td>
<td>154.201</td>
<td>1.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Swiss Franc (CHF)</td>
<td>0.87582</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>British Pound (GBP)</td>
<td>0.77760</td>
<td>1.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chinese Yuan (CNH)</td>
<td>7.193730</td>
<td>1.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Australian Dollar (AUD)</td>
<td>1.5230</td>
<td>1.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>New Zealand Dollar (NZD)</td>
<td>1.6818</td>
<td>1.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brazilian Real (BRL)</td>
<td>5.7947</td>
<td>0.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Canadian Dollar (CAD)</td>
<td>1.39276</td>
<td>0.75%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 9:15 a.m. ET </figcaption></figure>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/41769412/dow-nasdaq-futures-race-higher-as-trump-wins-white-house-djt-tesla-shares-surge-veteran-investor-pr">Dow, Nasdaq Futures Race Higher As Trump Wins White House: DJT, Tesla Shares Surge — Veteran Investor Predicts US Economy Could &#8216;Take Off&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Dollar Index Sees Biggest 1-Day Rally Since Brexit On Trump Victory

Donald Trump has won in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, making him the 47th president and the first to secure a non-consecutive second term since Grover Cleveland <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election">in the late 1800s. </a>
The Republican Party also regained control of the Senate and holds a lead in the House of Representatives, with 198 seats to the Democrats&#8217; 180 as of early Wednesday morning.
Trump's victory paves the way for a significant shift in U.S. economic policy, highlighting the stark contrast between his and Kamala Harris's proposed approaches during the campaign. Trump&#8217;s policy direction includes ambitious tax cuts, higher trade tariffs, and potential rollbacks in climate initiatives, which could have significant economic implications for everything from inflation to the national debt.
Here's a breakdown of the seven key economic areas affected by the election outcome — and what was at stake had the results gone the other way.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1) Taxes</h2>
Tax policy was a major dividing line in the 2024 election.
Trump campaigned on a promise to extend and expand his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with additional reductions for corporations and the restoration of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Trump also proposed exempting some forms of income from taxation and repealing green energy tax credits, aiming to attract more business investment and spur economic growth.
&#8220;Trump's plan to lower corporate taxes is likely to give a boost to the economy at the expense of a greater budget deficit. The U.S. economy certainly doesn't seem to need it at this point, and there's a risk of overheating,&#8221; said ABN Amro senior economist Rogier Quaedvlieg.
By contrast, Harris supported tax increases targeting corporations and high-income households.
Harris's proposals included raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and increasing the top individual income tax rate to 39.6% on income above $400,000 for single filers and $450,000 for joint filers. 
Harris also advocated taxing long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at 28% for incomes above $1 million and introducing a tax on unrealized capital gains at death above a $5 million threshold.
According to the Tax Foundation, Harris's tax plan could raise approximately $4.1 trillion in revenue over the next decade but could reduce long-term GDP by 2% and cost the economy about 786,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2) Trade Policy</h2>
The two candidates presented vastly different visions for trade. 
Trump campaigned on a promise to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a universal 10% tariff on all imports. His rationale was to protect American manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports, especially from China.
However, economists have warned that such aggressive tariffs could raise consumer prices and provoke retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trade partners.
"A full-scale implementation of Trump's tariffs will increase inflation and put the U.S. in a recession," Quaedvlieg said.
Erica York, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, highlighted that "tariffs are a particularly distortive way to raise revenue, especially as they invite foreign retaliation."
&#8220;Trade policy is the main channel by which the U.S. election could generate a global common shock,&#8221; wrote JPMorgan in a recent report.
In contrast, Harris supported a more moderate approach, which would involve targeted tariffs on specific industries to protect U.S. strategic interests, similar to the policies followed under the Biden administration.
Harris's plan focused on preserving trade relations with key U.S. allies while using tariffs selectively to support American industries. Analysts expected this approach to mitigate inflationary pressures and maintain a more stable global trade environment.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3) National Debt</h2>
The election outcome also set the tone for U.S. fiscal policy, particularly around the national debt. 
Trump's fiscal plans, which include extending tax cuts and potentially increasing defense and infrastructure spending, are projected to add significantly to the national debt burden.
According to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Trump's proposals would increase the federal deficit by around $7.75 trillion in a baseline scenario between 2026 and 2035, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio from its current level of 102% to 143%, which is 18% of GDP above current law projections.
In a high-deficit scenario, the deficit could rise to $15.55 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 157%. 
Compared to Trump, Harris's fiscal plans took a more restrained approach to debt. In a baseline scenario, their proposals would have added $3.95 trillion to the national debt. This would increase the debt-to-GDP ratio to about 134% by 2035, a lower increase than Trump's plan.
In a high-deficit scenario, Kamala Harris would raise the deficit by $8.3 trillion over the same period, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 144%.
"Fiscal policy is likely to be tighter under divided government than under single-party control," highlighted Goldman Sachs analyst Alex Phillips, suggesting that the elected president&#8217;s plan could face more checks and balances restricting high-deficit policies.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41611073/trump-vs-harris-how-their-fiscal-plans-could-add-trillions-to-the-us-national-debt">Trump Vs. Harris: How Their Fiscal Plans Could Add Trillions To The US National Debt</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4) Inflation</h2>
Inflation was a central issue in the election, with economists projecting starkly different impacts from Trump's and Harris's policies.
Analysts broadly agreed that Trump's proposed tariffs — especially a 60% levy on Chinese imports and a 10% universal tariff — could drive up consumer prices in the U.S.
Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, stated in October that &#8220;tariffs are inflationary.&#8221;
JPMorgan analysts estimate that such measures could increase inflation by as much as 2.4% in a worst-case scenario. ABN Amro also warned that Trump's tariff-driven trade policy could push inflation up by 1.7 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius projected a "sizable 1.1pp boost to U.S. inflation" under Trump's policies. 
By comparison, Harris's strategy of targeted tariffs on specific industries was intended to avoid widespread inflationary pressure, maintaining a more balanced approach to trade that would limit price increases for consumers. 
Economists saw Harris's approach as less disruptive to the broader supply chain. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5) Interest Rates &amp; Fed Independence</h2>
The election result will also shape the Federal Reserve's role in monetary policy.
"The resurgence of inflation would force the Fed to raise rates again, or at least keep rates higher for longer," said Quaedvlieg.
Goldman Sachs&#8217; chief economist Hatzius suggested that Trump's policies could keep core inflation above 3% in 2025, rather than closer to the Fed's 2% target. This, Hatzius highlighted, &#8220;might well be a reason to delay cuts that might otherwise occur more quickly.&#8221;
Regarding the central bank independence role, Trump has a history of pressuring the Fed for lower interest rates, even suggesting negative rates at one point during his previous term. 
Analysts at the Brookings Institution expected that Trump's presidency could put the Fed under renewed pressure to align with his economic agenda.
Harris, in contrast, emphasized respect for the Fed's independence. "The Fed is an independent entity and as president, I would never interfere in the decisions that the Fed makes," Harris said during the campaign.
Economists indicated that Harris's stance would allow the Fed to focus on managing inflation and employment without political interference, potentially leading to a more stable and predictable monetary policy.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">6) US Dollar</h2>
The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen under a Trump presidency, as higher inflationary pressures could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance.
A recent JPMorgan report suggests that a Republican sweep could boost the greenback by up to 7.3% within the first two quarters, while a Harris presidency with a divided Congress might lead to a decline of more than 5% in the dollar's trade-weighted index (TWI), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>). 
The table below provides JPMorgan's projections for currency movements over the next one to two quarters based on different 2024 election outcomes.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Election Scenario</th>
<th>USD TWI Change</th>
<th>USD&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;CNY</th>
<th>USD vs.&nbsp;EUR</th>
<th>USD vs. CAD</th>
<th>USD vs. CAD</th>
<th>USD vs. AUD</th>
<th>USD vs. SEK</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Republican Sweep</td>
<td>+7.3%</td>
<td>+4.4%</td>
<td>+8.4%</td>
<td>+4.7%</td>
<td>+6.1%</td>
<td>+7.9%</td>
<td>+10.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Trump w/ Split Congress</td>
<td>+3.3%</td>
<td>+3.0%</td>
<td>+4.3%</td>
<td>+3.3%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>+4.6%</td>
<td>+5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harris w/ Split Congress</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Democratic Sweep</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-4.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/11/41722178/if-trump-and-republicans-sweep-dollar-may-climb-7-but-harris-win-could-bring-5-drop-says-jpmorgan">If Trump And Republicans Sweep, Dollar May Climb 7% — But Harris Win Could Bring 5% Drop, Says JPMorgan</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">7) Foreign policy</h2>
The election outcome also has sharp implications for foreign policy, particularly around climate, energy sanctions and defense spending.
Trump pledged to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and scale back climate commitments made under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
ABN Amro analysts warn that these rollbacks could harm long-term sustainability goals and impede the transition to a green economy. 
Harris, in contrast, pledged to uphold the U.S.'s climate commitments, supporting the Paris Agreement and clean energy goals set by the IRA.
According to S&amp;P Global, Trump also suggested he may relax sanctions on Russia to boost oil supply, while keeping a hard line on Iran and Venezuela.
Harris committed to maintaining sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, aligning with the current administration's stance on energy security.
In defense, Trump emphasized shifting more responsibility to European allies. 
&#8220;A second Trump term would likely entail renewed defense and security pressures for Europe. Trump has stressed that he expects European countries to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, as required by NATO members,&#8221; wrote Goldman Sachs economist James Moberly. 
Trump even proposed ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine, effectively transferring that burden to Europe.
In contrast, Harris indicated continued support for Ukraine and a collaborative approach with NATO allies, without reducing U.S. military commitments.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41756882/magnificent-7-basket-notches-over-200-gain-since-bidens-election-how-did-tech-giants-perform-und">Magnificent 7 Basket Notches Over 200% Gain Since Biden&#8217;s Election: How Did Tech Giants Perform Under Trump?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Shutterstock.com

Trump's Historic Return: 7 Ways His Second Term Could Impact The US Economy

A second Donald Trump mandate could lead to marked shifts in global commodity prices, spurred by his pro-fossil fuel policies, potential tariffs, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump" rel="noreferrer noopener">aggressive trade stances</a>.
Oxford Economics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/trump-presidency-could-alter-the-trajectory-for-commodity-prices/" rel="noreferrer noopener">noted</a> that Trump has campaigned to "unleash a new ear for fossil fuels," as deregulation of the U.S. energy sector could increase the production of oil, coal, and natural gas.
They expect that accelerating the current expansion in the domestic production of energy commodities would "lower the prices and, in turn, outweigh greater demand for diesel and gas through the repeal of tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act."
"Trump has pledged to roll back restrictions on drilling and permitting which were implemented under the Biden administration, as well as to streamline deregulation and end any [electric vehicle] mandates or green energy incentives," UK-based Gibson Shipbrokers stated, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/102924-us-elections-trump-presidency-seen-as-bullish-for-tanker-rates-in-us-middle-east-russia-wild-card" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> S&amp;P Global's report.
Industrial metals and agricultural goods, including steel and soybeans, will likely feel the impact of renewed tariffs, especially in a trade showdown with China. While China sought to reduce its exposure to U.S. soybean imports by importing more from Brazil and Argentina, it still buys a notable amount of U.S. oilseed.
Futures prices reacted accordingly to the election results, with the November 2024 deliveries declining 2.01% on the CME exchange, while Soybean oil prices rose 0.42% for the same period.
Trump's proposed tariff of up to 60% would likely weaken demand for industrial commodities like copper, steel, and iron ore, all essential to China's manufacturing.
"If Trump wins, I expect we'll see a serious slowdown in demand for metals. China, the largest consumer of these resources, would be facing the toughest constraints," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/commodities-under-pressure-likely-trump-win-us-presidential-race-2024-11-06/" rel="noreferrer noopener">told</a> Reuters.
Such a shift could weigh on commodity-exporting nations like Australia, making it more challenging to maintain export revenues.
Matthew Durban, a former Australian Trade and Investment Commission economist, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/increasingly-unstable-expert-claims-trump-win-would-be-calamitous-for-aussie-economy/news-story/c9e258889a0135c1f1cbbc80e3f1b234" rel="noreferrer noopener">highlighted</a> the risk for News.com.au, stating that Australia's economy would face "calamitous" consequences from reduced Chinese demand, which currently accounts for 35% of the country's exports. Tariffs would disrupt Chinese industrial activity, leading to lower demand for Australian commodities that fuel Chinese manufacturing, such as coal and iron ore.
That situation would put the country in strategic tension as it balances its close alliance with the U.S. and its economic reliance on China.
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Donald Trump's Victory Could Disrupt Commodities, Put Australia In Precarious Position

Election 2024 Update: Donald Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election" rel="noreferrer noopener">won the 2024 election</a> over his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, the Associated Press declared. In his victory speech before the election was officially called, he praised running mate JD Vance and Elon Musk&#8217;s support.
Calling it &#8220;the greatest political movement,&#8221; Trump vowed to &#8220;fix everything about our country.&#8221;
On Tuesday, November 5th, U.S. markets closed higher, led by broad gains across sectors, as economic data signaled resilience in the services sector. Investors remain wary, however, with volatility anticipated due to the tight presidential race between Trump and Harris, which will impact both bond and currency markets.
In economic data, the September U.S. trade deficit expanded to $84.4 billion, marking its highest level since April 2022 and exceeding market expectations of $84.1 billion. ISM services PMI climbed to 56 in October, its strongest level since August 2022.
The S&amp;P 500 majority sectors ended in positive territory, led by notable gains in consumer discretionary, industrial, and utilities stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.02% to close at 42,221.88, the S&amp;P 500 rose 1.23% to 5,782.76, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.43% to finish at 18,439.17.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 2.16% and ended the session at 39,428.50, led by gains in the Glass, Transportation Equipment, and Banking sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 0.83% and ended the day at 8,199.50, led by gains in the IT, Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded higher by 1.16% at 24,493.90 and Nifty 500 was up 1.61% at 23,043.90, led by gains in the Technology, Oil &amp; Gas and Capital Goods sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite declined 0.09% to close at 3,383.81, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 slid 0.50%, finishing the day at 4,024.28.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng fell 2.23% and closed the session at 20,538.38.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s markets fell as Trump&#8217;s U.S. election victory raised concerns about renewed trade and tech tensions. Investors remain cautious, hedging against potential tariffs and sanctions affecting Chinese assets.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05.30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 1.06%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 1.18%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 1.75%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 1.42%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 6.00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.17% at $71.11/bbl, and Brent was down 1.28% at $74.60/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices dropped as the dollar surged amid Trump&#8217;s projected election win and a larger-than-expected U.S. crude stock rise.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 0.11% to $2.673</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.55% at $2,734.40, Silver fell 1.30% to $32.350 and Copper slipped 2.68% to $4.3558.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 6.00 AM ET
Dow futures climbed 2.87%, with S&amp;P 500 futures up 2.29% and Nasdaq 100 futures rising 1.75%.
Forex at 6.00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index gained 1.38% to 104.85, the USD/JPY rose 1.58% to 154.10, and the USD/AUD rose 0.74% to 1.5176.</li>
<li>U.S. and European <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41763731/bitcoin-past-73k-dollar-gold-stock-futures-rise-as-trump-harris-results-trickle-in" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">stock futures, the dollar, and bitcoin surged</a> after Trump&#8217;s projected election victory, stirring inflation concerns and lifting Treasury.</li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Donald Trump Wins 47th Presidency -US Futures Up, Europe Up, Asia Mixed, Crude Falls And Dollar Strengthens

The U.S. services sector's economic momentum is firing at all cylinders, with business activity in October reaching its strongest level <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">in over two years.</a>
According to the Institute for Supply Management, the Services PMI surged to 56% in October 2024, up from 54.9% in September, defying expectations of a dip to 53.8%.
This result marks the fastest pace of expansion in the U.S. services sector since August 2022. The ISM Services PMI has shown growth in 20 of the past 22 months since January 2023, with October's reading standing 3.7 percentage points above the 2024 average of 52.3%.
&#8220;The increase in the Services PMI&nbsp;in October was driven by boosts of more than 4 percentage points for both the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes. The Business Activity and New Orders indexes both dropped by at least 2 percentage points. Each of the four subindexes are now above their averages for 2024,&#8221; stated Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ISM Services PMI For October: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The subindex for Business Activity eased from 59.9% to 57.2% in October.</li>
<li>The subindex for New Orders eased from 59.4% to 57.4% in October. </li>
<li>The subindex for Prices eased from 59.4% to 58.1%. </li>
<li>The subindex for Employment rose from 48.1% to 53%, well above the expected 48%. The outcome marked the highest level in employment index since September 2023. </li>
</ul>
&#8220;Concerns over political uncertainty were again more prevalent than the previous month. Impacts from hurricanes and ports labor turbulence were mentioned frequently, although several panelists mentioned that the longshoremen's strike had less of an impact than feared due to its short duration,&#8221; Miller added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
On Tuesday, U.S. stocks rebounded as investors reacted positively to the latest ISM Services PMI data, alleviating earlier political concerns as Americans headed to the polls to elect the 47th president.
The S&amp;P 500, represented by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), rose 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), rallied nearly 1%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) edged 0.6% higher.
Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rose 7 basis points to 4.36%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 0.5%. 
The U.S. dollar index — as tracked by the  Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — weakened 0.5%.
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</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

US Services Sector Gauge Rises More Than Expected To Over 2-Year Highs As Employment Index Defies Hurricane Shocks

On Monday, November 4th, U.S. markets closed lower after a volatile session as investors braced for a pivotal week with the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy announcement. A poll showing Kamala Harris leading in Iowa impacted &#8220;Trump trades,&#8221; adding market uncertainty amid expectations of delayed election results.
Economic data showed that U.S. factory orders dropped by 0.5% in September, reaching $584.2 billion, following a revised 0.8% decrease in August.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed lower, led by losses in utilities, communication services, and financials, while energy and real estate stocks rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.61% to close at 41,794.60, the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.28% to 5,712.69, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.33% to finish at 18,179.98.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 1.42% and ended the session at 38,595.50, led by gains in the Glass, Transportation Equipment, and Banking sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.40% and ended the day at 8,131.80, led by losses in the Gold, Utilities, and Financial sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded higher by 0.85% at 24,199.05, and Nifty 500 was up 0.63% at 22,661.00, led by gains in the Metals, Banking, and Oil &amp; Gas sectors shares.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 2.32% to close at 3,386.99, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 2.53%, finishing the day at 4,044.57.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng climbed 2.14% and closed the session at 21,006.97.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05.30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.05%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.01%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.04%.</li>
<li>U.K.'sU.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.25%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05.30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.35% at $71.73/bbl, and Brent was up 0.36% at $75.33/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices stayed within a narrow range as markets awaited the U.S. presidential election, following a 2% rise after OPEC+ delayed a planned December production increase.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.36% to $2.771.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.10% at $2,748.80, Silver gained 0.48% to $32.767, and Copper rose 0.85% to $4.4688.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05.30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.27%.
Forex at 05.30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.12% to 103.77, the USD/JPY was up 0.05% to 152.20, and the USD/AUD declined 0.49% to 1.5110.</li>
<li>The dollar softened as election volatility spiked while traders awaited the Fed&#8217;s rate decision.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

On US Election Day, Asia Mostly In Green, Europe Mixed, Dollar Softens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. analysts indicate that the fate of the U.S. dollar could swing dramatically depending on the outcome of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">the upcoming presidential elections. </a>
A Donald Trump victory with Republicans gaining full control of Congress could drive the dollar up by as much as 7.3%, while a victory of Kamala Harris with a divided Congress might lead to a drop of over 5% in the dollar's trade-weighted index (TWI), according to a report released last week.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The impact of a Trump victory on the dollar</h3>
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, JPMorgan predicts a series of aggressive trade policies that could propel the dollar.
In particular, Trump has already threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% and suggested the possibility of introducing a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports. 
The return of Trump's protectionist trade policies would likely lead to a tariff-heavy approach that, according to JPMorgan's estimates, could bolster the dollar significantly.
&#8220;There is precedent for what the combination of fiscal stimulus and tariffs can do for FX; it is well known that the dollar benefited from both of these channels throughout 2018- 2019,&#8221; JPMorgan wrote. 
In a "Republican sweep" scenario, the dollar is expected to rally significantly, with the trade-weighted dollar index—tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>)—projected to gain 7.3%. In this case, the greenback could see its strongest gains against the Swedish krona (SEK), rising by 10.8%, and the euro (EUR), with an anticipated increase of 8.4%.
Conversely, if Harris wins with a split Congress, JPMorgan expects the dollar to experience its steepest decline, with the trade-weighted dollar index potentially dropping by 5.4%. This outcome would likely lead to a weaker dollar as trade tensions ease and economic priorities shift.
The table below highlights JPMorgan&#8217;s projected currency movements over the next one to two quarters under various election outcomes, providing forex traders with insights into how the 2024 U.S. election could shape the dollar&#8217;s trajectory.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Election Scenario</th>
<th>USD TWI Change</th>
<th>USD vs. CNY</th>
<th>USD vs. EUR</th>
<th>USD vs. CAD</th>
<th>USD vs. CAD</th>
<th>USD vs. AUD</th>
<th>USD vs. SEK</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Republican Sweep</td>
<td>+7.3%</td>
<td>+4.4%</td>
<td>+8.4%</td>
<td>+4.7%</td>
<td>+6.1%</td>
<td>+7.9%</td>
<td>+10.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Trump w/ Split Congress</td>
<td>+3.3%</td>
<td>+3.0%</td>
<td>+4.3%</td>
<td>+3.3%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>+4.6%</td>
<td>+5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harris w/ Split Congress</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Democratic Sweep</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-4.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why could Trump&#8217;s tariffs trigger a dollar rally?</h3>
Economists at JPMorgan, the world's largest investment bank, estimate that the tariffs imposed during Trump's first term raised inflation by about 0.3% and shaved 0.4% off GDP growth. 
However, analysts at JPMorgan warn that a second Trump administration could cause even greater economic disruptions if tariffs are ramped up further.
"In the event of a Trump 2.0 administration, the impact from a tariff war 2.0 could be much higher," the JPMorgan team stated. 
They project that a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports would raise U.S. consumer prices by 1.1%, while a universal 10% tariff on all imports could push inflation up by as much as 1.5%.
In a worst-case scenario—where both a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% universal tariff are imposed—inflation could spike by 2.4%, putting significant pressure on American consumers and businesses.
This inflationary surge would likely force the Federal Reserve to shift back to a more hawkish stance, reversing any plans to ease monetary policy. 
Higher interest rates would be necessary to counteract the inflationary impact of tariffs, which could create a stronger monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other economies.
For the dollar, this scenario would represent a tailwind. Rising interest rates make U.S. assets, like Treasuries, more attractive to foreign investors due to their higher yields. This increased demand for U.S. assets, driven by yield differentials, would boost demand for dollars, strengthening the greenback further in the face of escalating trade tensions.
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If Trump And Republicans Sweep, Dollar May Climb 7% — But Harris Win Could Bring 5% Drop, Says JPMorgan

On Friday, November 1st, U.S. markets closed higher, rebounding from Thursday&#8217;s drop as Amazon&#8217;s strong earnings provided a boost despite weak October job growth in the U.S.
Amazon&#8217;s solid retail sales helped offset investor worries, while Apple faced pressure due to declining China sales. Other tech giants, including Meta and Microsoft, had reported earnings with caution over AI infrastructure costs, impacting the Nasdaq earlier.
Economic data showed that the U.S. economy added 2,000 jobs, a notable drop from the revised 223,000 positions added in September and falling short of the anticipated 113,000. Average hourly wages rose by 0.4% to $35.46, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors ended down Friday, led by losses in utilities, energy, and real estate, while consumer discretionary and tech stocks closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.69% to close at 42,052.19, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.41% to 5,728.80, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.80% to finish at 18,239.92.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>Japan Markets closed for the Culture Day holiday.</li>
<li>On Monday, Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.56% and ended the day at 8,164.60, led by gains in the IT, Utilities, and Telecoms Services sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 1.29% at 23,989.65, and the Nifty 500 was down 1.38% at 22,508.65.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 1.17% to close at 3,310.21, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 1.41%, finishing the day at 3,944.76.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng gained 0.30% and closed the session at 20,567.52.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.27%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.15%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.40%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.63%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.33% at $71.10/bbl, and Brent was up 2.19% at $74.70/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose as OPEC+ postponed its planned output increase, signaling support amid weak demand. This gain occurs as markets prepare for a significant week, with the U.S. presidential election, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and key economic decisions from China&#8217;s Congress.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.01% at $2.636.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.07% at $2,751.15, Silver gained 0.65% to $32.883, and Copper rose 0.87% to $4.4095.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05.45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.09%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.21%.
Forex at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.54% to 103.72, the USD/JPY was down 0.76% to 151.82, and the USD/AUD gained 0.30% to 1.5169.</li>
<li>The dollar fell as markets reacted to a surprise poll showing Kamala Harris leading, boosting investor sentiment for continuity. Uncertainty surrounding the close U.S. election and potential Fed rate cut also contributed to caution in currency markets.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Mixed, Europe Market Gains In US Election Week; Crude Oil Up 2% - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Thursday, October 31st, U.S. markets closed lower as Microsoft and Meta highlighted rising AI-related costs that could affect future earnings, dampening optimism for megacap stocks that have driven this year&#8217;s rally. Meta and Microsoft shares both slipped despite beating earnings estimates, while Amazon and Apple reported strong quarterly results after market close, bolstered by growth in cloud services and iPhone sales, respectively.
According to economic data, U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 216,000 for the week ending October 26th, while the personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 0.2% in September, up from a 0.1% increase in August.
S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, and real estate, while utilities and energy stocks closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.90% to close at 41,763.46, the S&amp;P 500 declined 1.86% to 5,705.45, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.76% to finish at 18,095.15.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed lower by 2.79% at 38,009.50, led by losses in the Transportation Equipment, Rubber, and Pharmaceutical Industry sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.50% and ended the day at 8,118.80, led by losses in the Transportation Equipment, Rubber, and Pharmaceutical Industry sectors.</li>
<li>India markets are closed for the Diwali Holiday.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 0.22% to close at 3,272.57, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 slid 0.03%, finishing the day at 3,890.90.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng gained 0.93% and closed the session at 20,506.43.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06.00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.59%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.56%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.52%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.56%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06.00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.63% at $71.08/bbl, and Brent was up 2.40% at $74.56/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose over +2% amid reports of Iran preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq. The increase was also supported by expectations that OPEC+ might delay planned production hikes.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 0.07% at $2.792.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.34% at $2,758.65, Silver gained 0.41% to $32.935, and Copper rose 0.60% to $4.3660.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 06.00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.27%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.40%.
Forex at 06.00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index rose 0.16% to 104.15, the USD/JPY rose 0.48% to 152.77, and the USD/AUD gained 0.26% to 1.5235.</li>
<li>The dollar steadied after its strongest month in two years as investors awaited U.S. jobs data. The yen softened, giving up recent gains ahead of Japan&#8217;s three-day weekend and key risk events.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia In Red, Europe Markets Gain; Crude Oil Rises 2.5% - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Editor&#8217;s note: This story has been updated with additional details. 
Traders faced an unwelcome Halloween threat on Thursday as the Federal Reserve&#8217;s favored inflation measure accelerated, raising some concerns on the likelihood of back-to-back interest rate cuts going into the final two monetary policy <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/economics">meetings of the year</a>. 
The PCE price index rose 2.1% year-over-year, in line with analyst forecasts. Yet the core PCE index — which strips out volatile food and energy prices and gives a better indication of underlying price pressures — rose 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%.
The latter stronger-than-expected inflation figure could keep the Fed on alert as it weighs its next policy moves. While a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week's Fed meeting is widely seen as a done deal as per the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations for another cut in December could face some setbacks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Personal Income And Outlays Report For September: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in September, matching the predicted 0.2% and accelerating from the previous 0.1%. </li>
<li>The core PCE price index rose 0.3% from the previous month, accelerating from 0.1% and matching estimates. </li>
<li>On an annual basis, the headline PCE price index surged 2.1%, down from August&#8217;s upwardly revised 2.3%. </li>
<li>The core PCE price index held at 2.7% year-over-year, as in August. </li>
<li>Personal income increased by $71.6 billion, or 0.3%, in September, matching expectations of 0.3% and above the previous month&#8217;s 0.2% growth. </li>
<li>Personal saving&nbsp;rate eased from 4.8% to 4.6%, with personal savings down from $1.05 trillion to $1 trillion in September.</li>
<li>Personal spending increased by $105.8 billion, or 0.5%, surpassing estimates of 0.4% and accelerating from the previous 0.2%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Markets showed minimal reaction to the latest PCE inflation report, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), largely maintaining its morning losses of 0.2%.
Treasury yields were steady, with the two-year yield, sensitive to rate changes, holding at 4.17%.
As of 8:50 a.m. in New York, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.6%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts also dipped by 0.6%. Yet, both held broadly steady after the inflation data release. 
On Wednesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.3%, ending a two-day winning streak. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41649350/as-microsoft-meta-slide-after-earnings-calls-jim-cramer-says-hyperscalers-are-not-w">As Microsoft, Meta Slide After Earnings Calls, Jim Cramer Says &#8216;Hyperscalers Are Not Warning About Worsening AI Losses&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Fed's Favorite Inflation Metric Accelerates In September, Personal Income Rises More Than Expected (UPDATED)

Gold recovers some ground on Thursday yet remains trading below its opening price for the fifth consecutive day, undermined by the Greenback's advance for its own fifth consecutive day.

Gold Slips On Powell Remarks Of No Rush To Lower Rates

The USD/CAD pair trades flat near 1.4060 amid the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Friday. The US October Retail Sales will be in the spotlight on Friday along with the Fedspeak. 

USD/CAD Holds Steady Above 1.4050, US Retail Sales Data In Focus

Consumer Price Index: Inflation Edges Up To 2.6% In October

EUR/USD briefly tested fresh year-long lows on Thursday, piercing the 1.0500 handle for the first time in 54 weeks.

EUR/USD Taps 1.05 For The First Time In Over A Year

Stocks finished the day lower, following hotter-than-expected PPI data and some commentary from Jay Powell that caused traders to pare back bets on December and January rate cuts.

A Dollar Breakout Could Lead To Equity Market Carnage

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Thursday, November 14.

Financial Markets Report For Thursday, Nov 14

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its decline for the sixth consecutive session on Friday, hovering near three-month lows against the US Dollar (USD).

Australian Dollar Continues To Face Downward Pressure Following China Key Data

The Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to gain ground around $2,570 on Friday after bouncing off a two-month low in the previous session.

Gold Price Extends Decline On Bullish US Dollar, Investors Brace For US PPI Data

CPI Prints In Line And Validates Bullish Market View

The U.S. dollar continues to flex its muscles, turbocharged by President-elect Donald Trump's bold return to the global stage.

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