El interés en corto de SPDR S&P 500 da a los inversores una idea del grado en que los inversores apuestan por la caída de las acciones de SPDR S&P 500. Los datos de interés en corto se actualizan cada dos semanas.

SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY), Informe de interés en corto

SPDR S&P 500

Technology

Financial Services

Healthcare

Consumer Cyclical

Industrials

Consumer Defensive

Energy

Communication Services

Real Estate

Utilities

Basic Materials

Other

The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

Apple Inc

Microsoft Corp

Nvidia Corp.

Amazon.Com Inc

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Alphabet Inc

Alphabet Holding Company Inc.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Cl. B

Broadcom Inc

Tesla, Inc.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Government

News

Regulations

Tech

Media

AMZN

GOOG

GOOGL

MSFT

NVDA

Nvidia podría exportar chips H200 de IA a Arabia Saudí mientras EE.UU. reconsidera las sanciones tecnológicas impuestas en 2024.

Nvidia podría llevar chips de IA a Arabia Saudí pese a sanciones de EE.UU.

Macro Economic Events

Econ #s

Economics

Markets

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

La inflación en EE.UU. cae al 2,5% en agosto, la más baja desde 2021. Descubre cómo afectó al dólar, rendimientos del Tesoro y más.

Inflación en EE.UU. baja en agosto: Impacto en el dólar y el mercado

Commodities

OILK

La OPEP+ retrasa el aumento de producción de crudo planificado debido a la caída en los precios del petróleo.

OPEP+ pospone aumento de producción de petróleo por caída de precios

SPDR S&P 400 US MID CAP ETF

Tradr 2X Long SPY Weekly ETF

Simplify Exchange Traded Funds Simplify US Equity PLUS Convexity ETF

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF

NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF

SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF

Tradr 2X Long SPY Monthly ETF

Tradr 2X Long SPY Quarterly ETF

SPYR Technologies

Tidal Trust II Defiance S&P 500 Target Income ETF

Bank Of Montreal MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETNs due October 30, 2043

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF

SPDR S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF

Federal Reserve

Fed Says Labor Market Conditions Have 'Generally Eased,' Unemployment Rate Has Moved Up But Remains Low; Economic Activity Has Continued To Expand At A Solid Pace; Says Will Continue Reducing Bond Holdings At Previously Announced Pace; Vote In Favor Of Policy Was Unanimous

Federal Reserve Cuts Key Overnight Interest Rate By A Quarter Percentage Point To 4.50-4.75%, Says Outlook Uncertain, Attentive To Risks On Both Sides Of Dual Mandate; Committee Judges Risks To Employment And Inflation Goals Are 'Roughly In Balance'; Statement Omits Reference To Having Gained Greater Confidence In Inflation Moving Sustainably Toward 2% Target; Inflation Has 'Made Progress' Toward 2%, But Remains Somewhat Elevated

<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241107a.htm">https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241107a.htm</a>
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.

Macro Notification

General

Federal Reserve Issues FOMC statement November 6-7, 2024 (Link In Body)

Federal Reserve Cuts Key Overnight Rate By 25 bps

After Wednesday&#8217;s &#8220;everything rally&#8221; spurred by the election results, investors took a less euphoric approach on Thursday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.5%-4.75%, following a previous 50-basis-point cut in September.
Yet, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s comments at 2:30 p.m. ET regarding the potential for future rate hikes and his views on inflation risks. Concerns from the market center on the possibility of a policy U-turn driven by higher fiscal deficits and price pressures from trade tariffs under a Trump administration.
Tech stocks led gains, with the Nasdaq 100 extending its record-breaking levels, surpassing 21,000 points and eyeing a third consecutive positive session. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones posted more modest gains, while the Russell 2000 paused after Wednesday&#8217;s 5.8% leap.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) remained a top performer among mega-cap stocks, bolstered by expectations of Elon Musk&#8216;s influence in the upcoming administration.
Treasury yields reversed a substantial portion of Wednesday's post-election increase, while the U.S. dollar dipped by 0.7%.
Metal commodities rebounded after Wednesday&#8217;s sharp losses, with gold rising 1.3%, silver up 2% and copper rallying over 4%.
Oil prices strengthened by 1%, with West Texas Intermediate trading around $72 per barrel.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose 0.8%, reaching $76,000 to extend its record highs, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) outperformed with a gain of over 4%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,050.78</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,968.27</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,748.20</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,389.10</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent110624&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.7% to $594.84.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;stalled at $437.25.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) soared 1.3% to $512.38.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) eased 0.3% to $236.67.</li>
<li>The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, rising 1.3%. The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) lagged, down 1.2%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
Some relevant reactions to earnings reports are:
<ul>
<li>Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>), up 0.1%, </li>
<li>Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GILD#NASDAQ">GILD</a>), up 6.2%, </li>
<li>MercadoLibre Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MELI#NASDAQ">MELI</a>), down 16%, </li>
<li>APPLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>), up 43%, </li>
<li>McKesson Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCK#NYSE">MCK</a>), up 11%, </li>
<li>Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTWO#NASDAQ">TTWO</a>), up 6.3%, </li>
<li>Transdigm Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TDG#NYSE">TDG</a>), down 4.4%</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41814589/why-trumps-boost-to-treasury-yields-inflation-expectations-may-weaken-feds-efforts-">Why Trump&#8217;s Boost To Treasury Yields, Inflation Expectations May Weaken Fed&#8217;s Efforts To Cut Interest Rates</a></li>
</ul>
This image was created using artificial intelligence.

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

Equities

Large Cap

Sector ETFs

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

ETFs

$BTC

$ETH

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

GILD

MELI

QCOM

TSLA

TTWO

XLRE

Nasdaq 100 Extends Record Levels Ahead Of Fed Meeting, Tesla Hits 26-Month Highs, Small Caps Stall: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-07_08h30_03.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bonds Fall On Trump Win</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fed-interest-rate-bonds-support-zone-tlt-mc-11072024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>After Trump's win, bonds are front and center.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the contrary Arora call was made that bonds would fall.&nbsp; That call was made at a time when everyone was predicting that bonds would rise.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Arora call was made about the election.&nbsp; We wrote in the <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/rising-yields-100824/">Morning Capsule on October 8</a>, "In the event of a one party sweep, TLT can potentially fall to the bottom support zone."</li>
<li>The chart shows that the second Arora call on bonds has proven accurate after Trump's win.</li>
<li>The chart shows when Trump won the election.</li>
<li>The chart shows that on Trump's win, TLT gapped down and opened close to the top and of the bottom support zone.&nbsp; Yesterday's bar does not show premarket data.&nbsp; In the premarket, TLT touched the top band of the support zone.&nbsp; On The Arora Report charts, premarket data is included on the current day, but not on the previous days.&nbsp; This methodology provides the most clarity.</li>
<li>The FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
<li>The consensus is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed could not possibly be happy about the large drop in bonds after the last rate cut.&nbsp; We will be paying careful attention to what Powell says about the drop in bonds in his press conference.&nbsp; If Powell says anything about this subject, it will be the most important new information that can be gleaned today.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Most institutional investors and many retail investors have suffered massive losses in bonds. &nbsp;It is important to remember that the largest amount of money is still managed using the 60/40 portfolio as a starting point.&nbsp; This means 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds.&nbsp; The Arora Report has long shown that following the protection band is heads and shoulders above following the 60/40 portfolio.&nbsp; Nonetheless, the dogma of 60/40 remains popular.&nbsp; This is the reason we publish information on 60/40 portfolios.&nbsp; For those following the 60/40 portfolio, The Arora Report call has been to limit the duration to less than five years.&nbsp; The Arora Report call on duration has been consistent at a time when a vast majority of money managers were significantly increasing duration. The longer the bond duration, the larger the losses investors have suffered.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, after Trump's election the Fed is faced with two important issues:
<ul>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, depending upon how Trump implements his tariff plan, it may add 0.5% &#8211; 1% to inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Trump's tax plans will increase the national deficit by $7.8T over the next 10 years.&nbsp; All of this deficit will have to be financed by borrowing.&nbsp; This will increase the supply of Treasuries.&nbsp; A higher supply of Treasuries will lead to higher interest rates on the long end, unless the Fed decides to manipulate it with quantitative easing or some other artificial method.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>At a time when the stock market is at an all time high and bonds are suffering major losses, there is not good news on the economic data front.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Unit labor costs are spiking.&nbsp; Q3 Unite Labor Costs &#8211; Preliminary came at 1.9% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
<li>As of this writing, the momo crowd is oblivious.  However, expect smart money to pay attention to this important, highly inflationary data. Also expect the Fed to pay attention to this data.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 221K vs. 222K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the employment picture remains strong, especially at the low end.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is another important question that the Fed will have to face.  Trump plans to deport undocumented immigrants.  According to the Department of Homeland Security, there are about 11M undocumented immigrants in the U.S. What happens to labor supply at the low end if 11M workers are taken out of the workforce?  What does it do to inflation?  What does it do to economic growth, and in turn the stock and bond markets? </li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">England</h3>
The Bank of England has cut interest rates.&nbsp; The key interest has been reduced to 4.75% from 5%.
This is the first cut by a major central bank after Trump's election. &nbsp; Investors should keep an eye on how the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan act after Trump's election.&nbsp; Remember, the U.S. economy is intertwined with the global economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

AAPL

Bonds And Fed Front And Center As Bonds Approach Bottom Support Zone After Trump Win

A federal agency has issued a directive to employees to reduce the use of their phones for work matters due to China's recent hack of U.S. telecommunications infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter.
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-agency-warns-employees-about-phone-use-amid-ongoing-china-hack-dd459273?mod=latest_headlines" title="https://www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-agency-warns-employees-about-phone-use-amid-ongoing-china-hack-dd459273?mod=latest_headlines">https://www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-agency-warns-employees-about-phone-use-amid-ongoing-china-hack-dd459273?mod=latest_headlines</a>

TMUS

'U.S. Agency Warns Employees About Phone Use Amid Ongoing China Hack' - WSJ

<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-is-likely-to-allow-fed-chair-to-serve-remainder-of-his-term-adviser-says/index.html" title="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-is-likely-to-allow-fed-chair-to-serve-remainder-of-his-term-adviser-says/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-is-likely-to-allow-fed-chair-to-serve-remainder-of-his-term-adviser-says/index.html</a>

Politics

'Trump is likely to allow Fed chair to serve remainder of his term, adviser says' -CNN

- Reuters Citing S&amp;P Global&nbsp;

S&P Global Says Tariffs Could Increase U.S. Inflation, Drag On Growth; Trump Unlikely To Impose 10% Blanket Tariff And 60% Tariff On Chinese Goods; Policy Impacting Deficits And Debt Could Affect U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating, Projections Assume Deficit Will Remain Around Current Levels

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OmadYAynL4" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OmadYAynL4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OmadYAynL4</a>

'LIVE: Biden delivers speech after Trump's win' -AP

<a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/07/WS672c9a2fa310f1265a1cc1b4.html">https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/07/WS672c9a2fa310f1265a1cc1b4.html</a>
Law enforcement agencies in China and the United States recently collaborated to tackle a transnational telecommunications fraud, recovering more than $1.7 million for a company in Zhejiang province and its US partner, China's Ministry of Public Security said on Thursday.
The case was handled jointly by China's Ministry of Public Security and the US Department of Homeland Security, according to the ministry's statement. Both countries' law enforcement departments are continuing to investigate the case actively, it added.
With telecommunications fraud increasing globally, the ministry noted, these types of crimes pose common challenges across borders.
Chinese public security authorities remain committed to a strict, law-based approach to combatting transnational telecommunications fraud, and are deepening cooperation with law enforcement agencies in other countries, the ministry said.

Legal

'China, US Jointly Recover $1.7M In Transnational Fraud Case' - ChinaDaily

USA Natural Gas Storage 69B Vs 67B Est.; 78B Prior

USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) For September -0.2% Vs -0.1% Est.; -0.1% Prior

The U.S. stock market erupted with gains following Donald Trump&#8216;s victory in the 2024 presidential election and a potential Republican sweep of Congress. This sets the stage for what some analysts call <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color">a new &#8220;Roaring 2020s.&#8221;</a>
The S&amp;P 500 — tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — jumped 2.5% to fresh record highs on Wednesday, marking its best one-day performance in nearly two years and the strongest ever in a post-Election day.
Analysts and investors speculate that Trump&#8217;s planned corporate tax cuts and deregulation could fuel a prolonged rally in the stock market.
Notably, small-cap stocks, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), surged 5.8%, reflecting investor optimism that domestic-focused companies could benefit most from protectionist policies expected under Trump&#8217;s administration.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Small Caps Jump Nearly 6% After Election Day</h4>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="501" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/07074522/image-74-1024x501.png" alt="" class="wp-image-635109" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/07074522/image-74-1024x501.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/07074522/image-74-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/07074522/image-74-768x376.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/07074522/image-74-1536x752.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/07074522/image-74.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41431485/goldman-sachs-predicts-bleak-long-term-s-p-500-returns-as-market-concentration-hits">Goldman Sachs Predicts Bleak Long-Term S&amp;P 500 Returns As Market Concentration Hits &#8216;Highest Level In 100 Years&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A ‘Roaring 2020s' Market Rally?</h3>
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni described this post-election surge as &#8220;consistent with a Roaring 2020s scenario.&#8221; Yardeni believes that Trump&#8217;s policies could increase the odds of robust economic growth, strong corporate earnings, and an extended bull market.
&#8220;Stocks soared today on the widespread perception that Trump 2.0 will include a cut in the corporate tax rate and reductions in business regulations,&#8221; Yardeni wrote in a note on Thursday.
According to Yardeni, the conditions are shaping up for an economic boom similar to the 1920s — a period of rapid economic growth, technological advancement, and soaring stock prices. 
But the economic boom of the 1920s eventually led to a stock market crash in 1929 and the onset of the Great Depression.
Yardeni draws a parallel, quoting Mark Twain: &#8220;History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.&#8221;
The expert assigns a 50% probability to the "Roaring 2020s" scenario, a 20% probability to a &#8220;1990s-style stock market meltup,&#8221; and a 30% chance of a "1970s-style geopolitical crisis with a possible U.S. debt crisis." 
Yardeni also indicates that he is considering increasing the probability of the Roaring 2020s scenario, given the likelihood of a more business-friendly environment under Trump.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How High Could The S&amp;P 500 Go?</h3>
Yardeni has bold projections for the S&amp;P 500 if the "Roaring 2020s" scenario materializes.
He estimates an average annual return of around 11% for the S&amp;P 500, including reinvested dividends. 
This forecast sharply contrasts with the one presented by Goldman Sachs last month, where analysts at the investment bank predicted a decade of modest gains for stocks, with the S&amp;P 500 averaging just 3% annually over the next 10 years.
In Yardeni&#8217;s view, stocks remain the best hedge against inflation, as companies can often pass on higher costs to consumers. 
Under his &#8220;Roaring 2020s&#8221; scenario, strong productivity growth and stable inflation rates could bolster corporate profits and sustain the market&#8217;s upward trajectory.
Yardeni expects the S&amp;P 500 could climb to 8,000 by the end of the decade, driven largely by rising corporate earnings rather than inflated valuation multiples.
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/24/11/41788181/regional-bank-stocks-notch-strongest-day-in-4-years-why-analysts-expect-several-tailwinds-from-t">Regional Bank Stocks Notch Strongest Day In 4 Years: Why Analysts Expect &#8216;Several Tailwinds&#8217; From Trump Policies</a></li>
</ul>

Analyst Color

Small Cap

Trump Election Raises Odds Of 'Roaring 2020s Scenario,' Veteran Wall Street Investor Says: How High Could US Stock Market Rise?

US Continuing Jobless Claims 1.892M vs 1.88M Est.; Prior 1.853M

Initial Jobless Claims 221K Vs 223K Est.; 218K Prior

USA Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) 1.9% Vs 1.1% Est.; 2.4% Prior

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 2.2% vs 2.6% Est.

U.S. stocks could open in the green on Thursday after a strong post-election rally on Wednesday that saw former President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election">emerge victorious</a> after a long-drawn battle with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Futures of all three major indices edged up on Thursday, pointing to positive sentiment on Wall Street.
Shares of Trump's social media company, Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) will remain in focus once again on Thursday after surging nearly 6% on Wednesday.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Futures</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>0.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>0.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>R2K</td>
<td>0.35%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
In premarket trading on Thursday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) gained 0.22% to $592.42 and the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose 0.26% to $506.87, according to <a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/lxquj26b2sag">Benzinga Pro data</a>.
Cues From Last Session:
All three major indices registered strong surges as election results poured in on Wednesday, ending the session with major gains. The wider Dow Jones index surged by over 1,500 points, closing the day with 3.6% gains.
Oil prices continued to ease as Trump's win increased expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar.
Treasury yields continued to gain after <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41765345/treasury-yields-pop-on-trump-victory-chances-10-year-benchmark-reaches-4-month-high">popping on Wednesday at the prospect</a> of a Trump victory.
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Thursday as investors await signals on the path for rate decisions going forward.
Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a positive note, with consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials stocks recording the biggest gains on Wednesday.
However, consumer staples and real estate stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
<td>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq Composite</td>
<td>2.95%</td>
<td>18,983.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>2.53%</td>
<td>5,929.04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>43,729.93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>5.84%</td>
<td>2,392.92</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
It's not just equities that surged—top cryptocurrency Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) continued to gain momentum, scaling a new all-time high of $76,460.15. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $74,967.38, up by 1.48% in the last 24 hours.
Insights From Analysts:
Veteran investor Mark Mobius, chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/">told</a> CNBC that a Trump victory would not just be good for the U.S. economy, but also for emerging ones.
A decisive Trump victory would lead to "lots of deregulation," according to Mobius, which would also be "very good" for emerging countries.
"One of the things [I observe] as I travel around the world, is the incredible impact of U.S. regulations on these countries regarding the transfer of funds, know your customer… hopefully, that will go down the drain and there will be much freer trade and much freer movement of currencies."
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, highlighted that the U.S. equity markets have already hit new all-time highs 48 times in 2024, with nearly two months still to go.
Per Detrick's analysis, this could mean the U.S. markets could witness 56 all-time highs in 2024, which would make it the fifth most in history.
He is also bullish on the impact of a potential Fed rate cut on U.S. equities. He noted that when the Fed cut rates at a time when the S&amp;P 500 was near an all-time high, it resulted in stocks being higher a year later.
"They&#8217;ve done this 20 other times and a year later stocks were higher 20 times. As we&#8217;ve been saying all year, the Fed is a tailwind."
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Tomorrow the Fed will cut rates with the S&amp;P 500 near an all-time high. They&#39;ve done this 20 other times and a year later stocks were higher 20 times. As we&#39;ve been saying all year, the Fed is a tailwind. <a href="https://t.co/YgfF3WJ4B3">pic.twitter.com/YgfF3WJ4B3</a>
&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1854350014425788872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently anticipating a 100% chance of a rate cut. Powell's remarks in the press conference will be worth looking out for, though, as investors look for guidance on the future trajectory of rate action.
On the economic data front, U.S. mortgage applications fell by 10.8% from the previous week in the week ended Nov. 1.
U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.149 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 1, compared to market estimates of a 1.8 million gain.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">How To Trade Futures</a>
Upcoming Economic Data
While Powell and Fed will be the stars of Thursday's economic calendar, here's all the activity investors will be watching today:
<ul>
<li>Initial jobless claims data and preliminary productivity numbers will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>Wholesale inventories data will be released at 10 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET.</li>
<li>Fed Chair Powell will address a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</li>
</ul>
Stocks In Focus:
<ul>
<li>Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) shares plunged nearly 20% in premarket trading on Thursday.</li>
<li>Lyft Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LYFT#NASDAQ">LYFT</a>) shares <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41799780/why-lyft-shares-are-trading-higher-by-over-21-here-are-20-stocks-moving-premarket">popped over 22% </a>after the company raised its outlook amid a surge in sales and ridership.</li>
<li>Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>) beat Street expectations and extended its share buyback program. Qualcomm shares rose over 7% in premarket trading.</li>
<li>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) shares are in focus after Baird downgraded the lender's stock from neutral to sell.</li>
<li>Investors are awaiting earnings results from The Hershey Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HSY#NYSE">HSY</a>), Halliburton Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HAL#NYSE">HAL</a>), and Block, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SQ#NYSE">SQ</a>) today.</li>
</ul>
Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures eased in the early New York session, falling by 0.92% as Trump's return to the White House has led to a stronger U.S. dollar.
The 10-year Treasury note yield surged to 4.433%.
Most Asian markets ended Thursday on a positive note, but Japan's Nikkei 225 index ended the day 0.25% lower. European stocks showed strength in early trading.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41798981/jim-cramer-calls-trumps-return-to-white-house-a-huge-win-for-the-stock-market">Jim Cramer Calls Trump&#8217;s Return To White House A &#8216;Huge Win For The Stock Market&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

Earnings

Futures

Pre-Market Outlook

Movers

Trading Ideas

LYFT

US Stocks Likely To Open Higher, Extending Post-Election Rally: Fed's Rate Decision On Investors' Radar As Expert Highlights Markets Scaling 48 All-Time Highs This Year

On Wednesday, November 6th, U.S. markets closed at record highs as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Investors anticipated lower taxes, deregulation, and Trump&#8217;s active stance on economic matters. The Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq surged, while bitcoin also reached new highs.
Tesla shares surged, fueled by CEO Elon Musk&#8217;s endorsement of Trump, alongside gains in Trump Media &amp; Technology Group. Treasury yields rose amid expectations that higher tariffs could drive up inflation and expand the U.S. deficit.
According to economic data, U.S. mortgage applications dropped 10.8% last week, while crude oil inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels, exceeding the forecast of 1.8 million.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, while consumer staples and real estate lagged.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3,57% to close at 43,729.93, the S&amp;P 500 rose 2.53% to 5,929.04, and the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.95% to finish at 18,983.47.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.09% and ended the session at 39,394.00, led by losses in the Fishery, Marine Transport, and Food sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 0.33% and ended the day at 8,226.30, led by gains in the Energy, Industrials and Financials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded lower by 1.18% at 24,194.60 and Nifty 500 was down 1.02% at 22,796.95, losses in the Metals, Power and Real Estate sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 2.57% to close at 3,470.66, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 soared 3.02%, finishing the day at 4,145.70.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng rose 2.02% and closed the session at 20,953.34.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.67%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 1.27%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.58%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.08%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.88% at $71.06/bbl, and Brent was down 0.71% at $74.41/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas slid 0.07% to $2.745</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.08% at $2,674.70, Silver fell 0.29% to $31.245, and Copper gained 2.28% to $4.3430.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05.45 AM ET
Dow futures climbed 0.22%, with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.19% and Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.21%.
Forex at 05.45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index declined 0.19% to 104.89, the USD/JPY was down 0.40% to 154.00, and the USD/AUD fell 0.89% to 1.5086.</li>
<li>Global stocks rose, led by optimism over potential U.S. fiscal expansion under Trump&#8217;s presidency and anticipated rate cuts from the Fed and other central banks. U.S. Treasury yields increased, while the dollar eased slightly after Wednesday&#8217;s surge.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

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CQQQ

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EEMA

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IEMG

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KDIV

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USDU

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