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The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

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Manufactura en EEUU vuelve al crecimiento mientras servicios pierden impulso. La inflación y las políticas de Trump generan incertidumbre.

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Wall Street hit new records as Donald Trump began his second term <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/43085323/trump-sworn-in-as-47th-president-declares-golden-age-of-america-begins-right-now">as 47th U.S. president this week.</a>
The S&amp;P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — climbed above 6,100 points, surpassing its previous December peak and marking a second consecutive week of gains, fueled by a strong start to the fourth-quarter earnings season.
Tech stocks led the market again, driven by semiconductors&#8217; momentum and a surge in artificial intelligence investments. Trump launched <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43111153/nvidia-and-ai-stock-rises-as-trump-announces-500-billion-stargate-ai-infrastructure-venture">the Stargate project</a>, aligning OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>) to channel up to $500 billion over four years into AI infrastructure.
Shares of both Oracle and SoftBank-owned Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) jumped 15% this week in response to the announcement.
Speaking at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43170854/trump-outlines-economic-reset-at-davos-5-things-you-need-to-know">World Economic Forum</a> on Thursday, Trump vowed to make the U.S. the &#8220;world capital of artificial intelligence and crypto.&#8221; He also signed an executive order while fostering U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43177482/trump-signs-executive-order-on-crypto-bitcoin-reserve-to-be-evaluated">leadership in digital assets.</a> Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) soared to a record $109,000 at the start of the week, holding steady in a tight range thereafter.
Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>) emerged as the week&#8217;s top performer, skyrocketing 25% after securing a U.S. government contract to fast-track its bird <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/25/01/43117087/bird-flu-update-first-commercial-case-in-georgia-moderna-receives-590-million-to-develop-vaccine">flu vaccine development.</a> Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFLX#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>) followed suit with a 15% surge after <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43114866/netflix-q4-earnings-record-subscribers-nfl-squid-game-push-past-highest-expectations">blockbuster fourth-quarter results.</a>
In contrast, renewable energy stocks came under heavy selling pressure following the formal repeal of the Green New Deal and the removal of electric vehicle subsidies. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) took the brunt of the hit, tumbling double digits as investors priced in a policy-driven shift away from government-backed clean energy initiatives.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) was the big tech laggard of the week, missing out on the rally following analyst downgrades and warnings about weak <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43087992/apple-gets-rare-downgrade-from-jefferies-analyst-warns-on-slowing-revenue-growth-missed-forecasts-and-falling-iphone-demand">iPhone sales in China.</a>
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<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Hits Confidence</h1>
U.S. consumer confidence fell in January amid rising inflation worries linked to tariffs. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers opted to buy in advance to avoid future price pressures, sustaining strong <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43197024/consumer-confidence-declines-as-buying-in-advance-trends-grow">auto and retail sales.</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Risks Mount</h1>
Goldman Sachs warns that Trump&#8217;s potential tariff hikes could elevate consumer inflation expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate reduction plans. A universal 10% tariff might boost headline inflation by up to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43193866/trumps-tariff-hikes-could-stoke-consumer-inflation-jitters-challenge-fed-goldman-sachs-warns">1 percentage point, according to Goldman.</a>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43198272/us-stocks-hit-dot-com-era-valuations-vs-bonds-why-some-experts-remain-bullish">US Stocks Hit Dot-Com Era Valuations Vs. Bonds: Why Some Experts Remain Bullish</a></li>
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Photo: Ryan DeBerardinis via Shutterstock

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Trump Sparks Records On Wall Street, AI Stargate Project Lifts Chipmakers; Inflation, Tariff Jitters Arise: This Week In The Market

Bank Of America Spokesperson Says Co Will Be Engaging With Trump Administration And Congress On Extensive Regulations That Can Sometimes Result In Account Closures

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State Dept Says Secretary Of State Marco Rubio Spoke With Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi On Friday; Rubio Stressed U.sS. Commitment To Allies In Region As Well As 'Serious Concern Over China's Coercive Actions Against Taiwan And In The South China Sea'

<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Artificial-intelligence/Japan-s-SoftBank-to-sound-out-Apollo-Brookfield-on-Stargate-funding">https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Artificial-intelligence/Japan-s-SoftBank-to-sound-out-Apollo-Brookfield-on-Stargate-funding</a>
 TOKYO -- Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group plans to contact big investment firms&nbsp;including Apollo Global Management about fundraising for a U.S. artificial intelligence project proposed by President Donald Trump, Nikkei has learned.
SoftBank and ChatGPT developer OpenAI each will invest $19 billion in the <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Artificial-intelligence/Trump-unveils-500bn-AI-investment-by-SoftBank-OpenAI-and-Oracle">Stargate Project</a>&nbsp;company, which&nbsp;aims to build data centers and the infrastructure to power them. That would give each of them a roughly 40% stake.

Financing

MSFT

SFTBY

'Japan's SoftBank To Sound Out Apollo, Brookfield On Stargate Funding' - Nikkei

'Big Banks Trying To Sell Up To $3B In X Debt They Hold From Elon Musk Deal; Morgan Stanley Bankers Calling Investors To Set Up X Debt Sale Next Week; Morgan Stanley, Other Lenders Hope To Sell Debt At 90c-95c On The Dollar, Sources Say'

Wall Street paused for a breather on Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 index hovering around the flatline at midday trading in New York after a five-day rally that pushed the market to fresh record highs this week. Meanwhile, investor attention shifted to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/forex">forex and gold markets.</a>
The greenback is experiencing its worst weekly performance since July 2023, as President Donald Trump refrained from imposing new tariffs during his first week and escalated pressure on the Federal Reserve, urging the central bank to lower interest rates. The U.S. dollar index – tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – dropped 0.7% on Friday, extending its weekly decline to 1.7%.
Adding to the dollar's downward momentum, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, in a move that broadly met expectations.
Gold capitalized on the dollar's weakness and rising tensions between the president and the central bank, marking another week of strong gains and approaching all-time highs. The bullion, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), was trading at $2,777 per ounce.
On the macro front, S&amp;P Global reported a slowdown in private sector growth in January, as the services sector faced an unexpected setback, despite manufacturing expanding for the first<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43195427/us-services-growth-slows-manufacturing-finally-expands-in-january-inflation-was-broad-based-expert-warns"> time in seven months.</a>
A warning came from the University of Michigan's consumer survey, which downwardly revised the January consumer confidence indicator and pointed to increasing trends of households making purchases in advance to avoid potential price hikes <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43197024/consumer-confidence-declines-as-buying-in-advance-trends-grow">linked to tariffs.</a>
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) climbed 2.5% following Trump's executive order signed on Thursday, aimed at strengthening U.S. leadership in digital assets. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,314.96</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,119.65</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,541.76</td>
<td>-0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,861.02</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent012425&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) eased 0.1% to $608.89.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.1% lower to $444.96.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) slipped 0.4% to $530.73.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) stalled at $229.40.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, up 0.9%; the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 0.4%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>American Express Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AXP#NYSE">AXP</a>) fell 2.4% after reporting fourth-quarter results. </li>
<li>Other stocks moving on quarterly results were Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VZ#NYSE">VZ</a>), up 1.3%, NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEE#NYSE">NEE</a>), up 4%, HCA Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCA#NYSE">HCA</a>), down 3.2%, First Citizens BancShares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCNCA#NASDAQ">FCNCA</a>), up 3.1%, Ericsson (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ERIC#NASDAQ">ERIC</a>), down 14.3%, Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRG#NASDAQ">ISRG</a>), down 3.6%, Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXN#NASDAQ">TXN</a>), down 7.1%, and CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CSX#NASDAQ">CSX</a>), down 2.8%. </li>
<li>Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) soared 8.1% after new weight loss drug amycretin showed strong trial results. </li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43198272/us-stocks-hit-dot-com-era-valuations-vs-bonds-why-some-experts-remain-bullish">US Stocks Hit Dot-Com Era Valuations Vs. Bonds: Why Some Experts Remain Bullish</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Stocks Stall, Gold Nears Record Highs As Dollar Faces Worst Week Since July 2023: What's Driving Markets Friday?

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Major indexes are lower amid a drop in chip stocks.

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Pulls Back, Texas Instruments Stock Falls On Soft Guidance, Bitcoin Rises

Legendary investor Warren Buffett has helped Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>) (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>) outperform the S&amp;P 500 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/25/01/42832123/warren-buffett-beats-sp-500-in-2024-how-oracle-of-omahas-returns-compare-over-past-20-years">on many occasions.</a>
A large position in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) helped Berkshire in recent years, but Buffett has been selling the stock and could sell more in future quarters.
What Happened: Buffett's third-quarter holdings report revealed that the investor known as the Oracle of Omaha <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41993666/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-slashes-apple-bofa-holdings-adds-dominos-pizza-in-q3">reduced his stake</a> in Apple by 25%, selling 100 million of the 400 million shares owned.
With 300 million shares still owned, Apple remains a large weighting in the value of Berkshire Hathaway, and investors are keeping a close eye on whether Buffett will continue to trim his position.
Apple had many years of outperforming the stock market, but in recent months has struggled. The company lost market share and sales in China.
A <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/43042851/apple-shares-dip-as-iphone-sales-in-china-decline-sharply-in-2024-whats-going-on">recent report revealed</a> Apple saw a 17% year-over-year sales decline in China for its iPhones, marking its largest single-year drop in the key country. This was the biggest annual drop for iPhones in China since 2016, leaving questions as to what Apple's future in the region looks like.
Apple fell behind the Chinese smartphone companies Vivo and Huawei in terms of market share in the country. Apple's 15% trailed the 17% and 16% of Vivo and Huawei, respectively.
The concerning iPhone sales are one of the reasons Apple stock has fallen 13.5% in the last month compared to a 1.4% gain for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500. Over the last year, Apple&#8217;s 14.8% gain has also trailed the +25.6% gain for the SPY. 
Benzinga recently polled readers to see what they think will happen next.
"Will Warren Buffett sell his Apple stock after the company lost $510 billion in market cap and saw declining iPhone sales in China?" Benzinga asked.
The results were:
<ul>
<li>No, he'll hold on for the long term: 56%</li>
<li>Yes, he'll start reducing his position soon: 44%</li>
</ul>
The poll saw a near even split between respondents, with a majority saying Buffett isn't going to sell more Apple stock in the near term.
<ul>
<li>You may not be a billionaire like Warren Buffett, but you can uncover hidden gems in the stock market using our proprietary data and pattern recognition — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42927075/benzingas-stock-whisper-index-5-stocks-investors-secretly-monitor-but-dont-talk-about-yet">check out five stocks flying under the radar that deserve your attention.</a></li>
</ul>
 Why It's Important: With Apple's declining stock price, the company was recently passed by Nvidia for the title of the world's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43150661/apples-510-billion-market-cap-drop-opens-door-for-nvidia-to-reclaim-worlds-largest-company-title-amid-iphone-makers-china-struggles">most valuable company</a>. At the time of writing, Nvidia was valued at $3.566 trillion, and Apple ranked second at $3.355 trillion.
Apple is offering discounts on iPhone 16 models to try to win back customers after declining sales. The company also sees strong iPhone sales in other regions, which could make Chinese concerns overblown.
Buffett <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/24/10/41188299/if-you-invested-1-000-in-apple-stock-when-warren-buffett-bought-shares-heres-how-much-youd-have">previously called Apple</a> "probably the best business" he knew in the world, and it has remained a key investment for the Oracle of Omaha since he first took a stake of 9.8 million shares in 2016.
&#8220;I don&#8217;t think of Apple as a stock. I think of it as a third business,&#8221; Buffett once said in reference to Berkshire&#8217;s insurance and railroad interests being two large business segments.
While Buffett has bought more Apple shares since that initial purchase and also sold on several occasions, the stock continues to be his largest holding and a key to the valuation of Berkshire Hathaway.
Buffett's next 13F filing, expected in February, will reveal whether he further reduced his Apple holdings in the fourth quarter.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/12/42706002/warren-buffett-said-selling-disney-was-a-huge-mistake-legendary-investor-should-have-been-buying">Warren Buffett Said Selling Disney &#8216;Was A Huge Mistake&#8217;: Legendary Investor &#8216;Should Have Been Buying&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Jan. 22, 2025 through Jan. 23, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 115 adults.
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Exclusives

EXCLUSIVE: Will Warren Buffett Sell More Apple Stock After iPhone Sales Drop In China? 56% Say This

Imagine you could park your money in a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and earn a safe 4.65% annual return. Now, compare that to the S&amp;P 500, where the forward earnings yield sits at 3.9%, meaning stocks aren't offering any extra <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">compensation for their risk. </a>
What would you choose?
This rare market dynamic is raising eyebrows on Wall Street, as one of the most-watched valuation measures—the equity risk premium—has turned negative, hitting levels last seen at the heights of the dot-com bubble.
A <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f8b6dbb5-eb9b-4639-b72a-e7c9b2925bb3">piece </a>published Friday by the Financial Times is sparking debates among financial experts about whether this signals a major red flag for U.S. equity valuations.
While some argue stocks remain extremely overvalued, others actually expect echoes of the late 1990s, when a similar scenario preceded a historic bull run.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The S&amp;P 500 forward earnings yield currently stands at 3.9%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.65%. The difference between the two—which serves as a measure of the equity risk premium—has fallen negative, essentially indicating that investors are willing to hold equities with no… <a href="https://t.co/p83GhTWhMV">pic.twitter.com/p83GhTWhMV</a>
&mdash; AlphaPicks (@AlphaPicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlphaPicks/status/1882717619649921310?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Is The Fed Model Saying?</h3>
The Federal Reserve model, a widely followed valuation metric introduced by economist Ed Yardeni in 1998, compares the S&amp;P 500's forward earnings yield with the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond. When the difference is positive, stocks appear undervalued relative to bonds; when it's negative, equities could be overpriced.
Right now, with the S&amp;P 500's forward earnings yield at 3.9% and 10-year Treasuries yielding 4.65%, the spread is negative—meaning stocks are more expensive than risk-free bonds on a relative basis.
Analyst Daniel Fang, CFA and CAIA, recently highlighted in a CFA Institute blog post that &#8220;the intuition is that stocks and bonds are competing assets; therefore, buying riskier stocks only makes sense when stocks can out-earn risk-free U.S. Treasuries.&#8221;
Yet, Fang also highlighted ongoing criticism of the model for its &#8220;lack of theoretical foundation.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks Keep Climbing: Yardeni Eyes S&amp;P 500 At 7,000 By Year End</h3>
Despite valuation concerns, U.S. stocks keep pushing to new records. The S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) –&nbsp;surged past 6,100 following Donald Trump's inauguration this week, setting fresh all-time highs.
Yardeni, speaking on CNBC on Thursday, stood by his bullish outlook: &#8220;I still think [the S&amp;P 500] is going to 7,000 by end of the year. That's probably the highest on the Street in terms of what the S&amp;P 500 can accomplish, and thinking maybe that number's conservative or maybe I'll raise it because so far, it looks like the fourth quarter of 2024 is coming in better than expected.&#8221;
He now expects fourth-quarter earnings to rise 12% year-over-year, adding that concerns about bond yields at 5% &#8220;melted away&#8221; after a Federal Reserve official suggested rate cuts could exceed two times, potentially three or four cuts in 2025.
Lower rates typically boost stock valuations as they reduce the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Could The Market Repeat The Late ‘90s Rally?</h3>
Guilherme Tavares, CEO at i3invest, cheered on the fact that the equity risk premium reached levels similar to 1997.
&#8220;Back then, there was a massive three-year rally before the market reached its peak; imagine that! If we apply the same analogy, we could potentially see another strong rally of about 60%,&#8221; he wrote on X.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The Equity Risk Premium (S&amp;P 500 earnings yield minus the US 10Y Yield) doesn&#39;t look attractive from a long-term perspective right now. However, the current level matches that of 1997. Back then, there was a massive 3-year rally before the market reached its peak; imagine that!… <a href="https://t.co/9LnWvUWnAY">pic.twitter.com/9LnWvUWnAY</a>
&mdash; Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) <a href="https://twitter.com/i3_invest/status/1882441911602192828?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2025</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
Macro trader Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, echoed this perspective in a post published earlier this month. 
He highlighted that while the equity risk premium is an important valuation tool, &#8220;it's by no means infallible. ERP was negative for basically all of the 1990s. And the 1990s was the best decade for equity returns ever.&#8221;
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The Equity Risk Premium is important to know and keep an eye on. But it's by no means infallible. ERP (S&amp;P Earnings Yield &#8211; 10Y UST) was negative for basically all of the 1990s. And the 1990s was the best decade for equity returns ever. <a href="https://t.co/SgKRbKVtIA">pic.twitter.com/SgKRbKVtIA</a>
&mdash; Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1878524457859301742?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 12, 2025</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bottom Line</h3>
The stock market's latest valuation signal is unsettling, but history suggests it may not be an immediate reason for panic. 
While bonds currently offer better risk-adjusted returns, the broader market remains bullish, especially with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43193866/trumps-tariff-hikes-could-stoke-consumer-inflation-jitters-challenge-fed-goldman-sachs-warns">Trump&#8217;s Tariff Hikes Could Stoke Consumer Inflation Jitters, Challenge Fed, Goldman Sachs Warns</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

US Stocks Hit Dot-Com Era Valuations Vs. Bonds: Why Some Experts Remain Bullish

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="574" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/24163942/image-1-1024x574.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-4932" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/24163942/image-1-1024x574.jpeg 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/24163942/image-1-300x168.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/24163942/image-1-768x431.jpeg 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/24163942/image-1.jpeg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Replacing Humans With AI Agents</h4>
An enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the market is breaking out above the micro resistance zone.</li>
<li>The trigger for the breakout was Trump's speech for Davos.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout is tenuous. A stronger breakout would have been more convincing.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows the volume was low indicating a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the market is very overbought.&nbsp; Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable to a pull back.&nbsp;</li>
<li>So far, since the inauguration of a new president, S&amp;P 500 is having its best start since 1985.&nbsp; In 1985 Ronald Reagan was inaugurated.&nbsp; When Ronald Reagan was elected, there were a lot of concerns about his conservative and somewhat radical policies.&nbsp; Historians tell us that Reagan went on to become one of the most successful presidents in US history.&nbsp; The stock market under Reagan did extremely well, even though it included the 1987 stock market crash.&nbsp; In the 1987 crash, the stock market lost 20.47% in one day.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the future course of the market will depend on Trump's statements.&nbsp; This morning there is relief that Trump has changed his stance and is now saying he would rather not impose tariffs on China.&nbsp; It is not only Trump's statements but also the rumors about what Trump may say that are moving the market.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that at this time when China and other nations are making great strides in developing digital currencies controlled by their central banks, Trump has issued an executive order to ban digital dollar.&nbsp; Presumably, the objective is to benefit cryptos at the expense of the dollar.
<ul>
<li>Please be extra careful, if you are trading new cryptos.&nbsp; Since Trump's inauguration there has been a flood of fake cryptos that have achieved very large valuations.&nbsp; Such cryptos are worth zero.&nbsp; Manipulators and pumpers are having a heyday.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Artificial intelligence is taking another step forward.&nbsp; OpenAI has introduced Operator.&nbsp; Operator is an AI agent that has its own browser and can perform web related tasks autonomously.&nbsp; This is a big step forward to replace a large number of humans doing such tasks at present with AI agents.&nbsp; AI agents present numerous investing opportunities both from the long side and the short side.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h4>
Bank of Japan (BOJ) has announced the biggest rate hike in 18 years.&nbsp; You may recall the big drop in the stock market in August of 2024 when the carry trade blew up in anticipation of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.&nbsp; This time, at least for the short term, it is all calm due to the Trump effect.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc, Tesla Inc, and Alphabet Inc Class C.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta Platforms Inc, Amazon.com, Inc., NVIDIA Corp, and Microsoft Corp.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust.  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Trump has announced a working group to evaluate buying cryptos as a strategic reserve.&nbsp; Initially, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell on disappointment that Trump did not announce a strategic reserve — to bitcoin bulls, there is nothing to evaluate.&nbsp; The dip was aggressively bought.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AI Agents To Replace Humans, Best Market Start For A New President Since 1985, Trump Bans Digital Dollar, Biggest Hike In Japan In 18 Years

U.S. consumer confidence took an unexpected step back in January as renewed inflation worries and growing fears of rising unemployment clouded the economic outlook <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for the year ahead.</a>
The sobering data comes from the final report released by the University of Michigan on Friday, which showed consumer sentiment falling from 74.0 in December 2024 to 71.1 in January 2024, marking a 3.9% monthly decline and a 10% drop year-over-year.
This is the first decline in U.S. consumer confidence in six months and a downward revision from preliminary estimates that had projected sentiment at 73.2.
While the subindex for consumer expectations saw only a marginal downward revision from 70.2 to 69.3, still remaining below December&#8217;s 73.3, the more pronounced deterioration occurred in the current conditions indicator.
The gauge measuring current economic conditions fell sharply from a preliminary estimate of 77.9 to 74.0.
&#8220;While assessments of personal finances inched up for the fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back,&#8221; the University of Michigan stated in its report.
Despite consumers reporting higher incomes this month, concerns over unemployment surged, with 47% of respondents expecting joblessness to rise in the coming year, the highest level of pessimism since the pandemic-induced recession.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Expectations Remain A Major Concern</h3>
Inflation expectations remained unchanged from initial estimates.
Short-term inflation expectations jumped from 2.8% in December to 3.3% in January, reaching their highest level since May 2024 and exceeding the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years before the pandemic. Similarly, long-term inflation expectations increased from 3.0% to 3.2%, matching November's reading.
These inflation expectations are a growing cause for concern.
&#8220;Worries about the future trajectory of inflation were evident throughout consumer interviews and were often linked to anticipated policy changes, such as tariffs,&#8221; said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers.
&#8220;Consumers continued to express motivations for buying in advance to avoid future price increases, and robust auto and retail sales data suggest they are indeed acting on these concerns,&#8221; she added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Wall Street Rally Stalls</h3>
Friday's trading session on Wall Street started on a cautious note, and the consumer sentiment report did little to improve investor confidence.
By 11:20 a.m. ET, the S&amp;P 500 Index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – was down 0.1%, following five consecutive days of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 also traded slightly in the red.
Meanwhile, bond yields edged lower, and gold – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) – climbed to $2,777 per ounce, hovering near record highs.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43193866/trumps-tariff-hikes-could-stoke-consumer-inflation-jitters-challenge-fed-goldman-sachs-warns">Trump&#8217;s Tariff Hikes Could Stoke Consumer Inflation Jitters, Challenge Fed, Goldman Sachs Warns</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Bonds

Consumer Confidence Declines As 'Buying In Advance' Trends Grow

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/trump-freezes-energy-agency-spending-loans-as-part-of-review?srnd=phx-green" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/trump-freezes-energy-agency-spending-loans-as-part-of-review?srnd=phx-green">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/trump-freezes-energy-agency-spending-loans-as-part-of-review?srnd=phx-green</a>

'Trump Freezes Energy Department Spending, Loans; Order Essentially Freezes Agency With About $50B Budget; Trump Has Vowed To Unravel Biden's Climate-Friendly Policies' - Bloomberg News

A shift in the pace of U.S. private sector expansion marked the start of 2025, with the services sector unexpectedly cooling from its December highs while manufacturing rebounded into growth territory for the first <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">time in seven months. </a>
However, as optimism builds among manufacturers ahead of the new administration's policies, inflationary pressures resurface, raising concerns over potential Federal Reserve action.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Services Sector Surprises With Slower Growth, Yet Weather Disruptions Weighed In</h3>
The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 52.8 in January, down from 56.8 in December, marking a nine-month low and falling short of analysts' expectations of 56.6, as tracked by TradingEconomics. 
Some companies reported adverse weather as a factor dampening current activity, as sentiment remained relatively strong.
"Service sector confidence lost some of the shine from December's one-and-a-half-year high but remained the second-highest recorded over the past year," S&amp;P Global wrote on Friday. 
Despite the softer growth in business activity, service sector hiring surged, with job creation accelerating at the fastest pace in 30 months, a sign that firms remain optimistic about future demand.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Manufacturing Returns To Expansion</h3>
While services lost momentum, the manufacturing sector saw a long-awaited turnaround. 
The Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 in January, up from 49.4 in December, surpassing expectations of 49.7 and hitting a seven-month high. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, making this the sector's first growth since mid-2024.
Optimism among manufacturers has strengthened, with businesses citing expectations of looser regulations, lower taxes and heightened protectionism under the Trump administration.
Many firms expressed confidence that these factors, alongside broader improvements in economic conditions, would support growth in the year ahead.
&#8220;Rising optimism is most notable in the manufacturing sector, where expectations of growth over the coming year have surged higher as factories await support from the new policies of the Trump administration, though service providers are also entering 2025 in good spirits,&#8221; said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Overall Business Activity Slows Amid Rising Inflationary Threats</h3>
The Composite PMI Index, which combines services and manufacturing data, fell from 55.4 in December to 52.4 in January, hitting a nine-month low and indicating a softening private-sector expansion. 
According to S&amp;P Global, some companies are concerned that policies like tariffs could disrupt supply chains, impact sales, or fuel inflation.
Other respondents highlighted concerns over a strong dollar, elevated costs and the risk of a more hawkish stance on interest rates than previously expected.
&#8220;Higher input cost and selling price inflation was broad-based across goods and services and, if sustained, could add to worries that a combination of robust economic growth, a strong job market, and higher inflation could encourage a more hawkish policy approach from the Fed,&#8221; Williamson added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction: Dollar Slumps, Stocks Pause</h3>
January's PMI data had an immediate impact on markets, with the U.S. dollar extending its weekly declines while equities and bonds remained largely flat.
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), which tracks the U.S. dollar index, dropped 0.5% on Friday, extending its weekly losses to 1.7%, on pace for its worst weekly performance since November 2023.
U.S. equities took a breather, as investors weighed rising inflation risks. By 10:05 a.m. ET Friday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.1%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) eased 0.3%.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/25/01/43187095/novo-nordisks-weekly-amycretin-delivers-up-to-22-weight-loss-in-study-stock-soars">Novo Nordisk&#8217;s Weekly Amycretin Delivers Up to 22% Weight Loss in Study, Stock Soars</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

US Services Growth Slows, Manufacturing Finally Expands In January: 'Inflation Was Broad-Based,' Expert Warns

Politics

'Trump Said German Leaders Wouldn't Be Invited To Inauguration; Trump Criticized Germany's Trade Practices'

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/sec-revokes-unpopular-banking-rule-that-blocked-wall-street-banks-from-adopting-crypto.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/sec-revokes-unpopular-banking-rule-that-blocked-wall-street-banks-from-adopting-crypto.html</a>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rescinded an accounting rule that forced banks to treat bitcoin and other tokens as a liability on their balance sheets.</li>
<li>The guidance was a major deterrent to Wall Street banks owning bitcoin.</li>
<li>The rule was introduced in 2022 and subjected digital assets to strict capital requirements, significantly raising the financial and regulatory risks of offering crypto custody services.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
After years of lobbying by the crypto industry, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rescinded an accounting rule that forced banks to treat <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=/">bitcoin</a> and other tokens as a liability on their balance sheets.
The guidance was a major deterrent to Wall Street banks owning bitcoin — and was the latest in a string of actions taken by the new Trump administration to make it easier for U.S. companies and financial firms to deal in virtual, decentralized currencies.
&nbsp;
The guidance, known as Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, or SAB 121, was introduced in 2022 and subjected digital assets to strict capital requirements. The measure, which significantly raised the financial and regulatory risks of offering crypto custody services, boosted operational costs for financial institutions and ultimately discouraged broader participation by Wall Street in crypto markets.
Efforts to overturn SAB 121 gained bipartisan support in Congress last year. But&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/joe-biden/">then-President Joe Biden</a>&nbsp;vetoed the proposed legislation, leaving the rule intact and further discouraging banks from adopting digital assets. Banks have been largely forbidden from expanding their crypto offerings beyond derivatives trading and offering ETFs to wealth management clients.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/trumps-sec-launching-crypto-task-force-to-develop-clear-regulations-for-industry.html">on Tuesday</a> was tapped to lead a new "crypto task force" within the agency aimed at "developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets," praised the announcement.
"Bye, bye SAB 121! It's not been fun," she wrote in a <a href="https://x.com/HesterPeirce/status/1882562977985114185">post on X</a> late Thursday night following the decision.
The SEC's decision to revoke the rule was announced in a <a href="https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/staff-guidance/staff-accounting-bulletins/staff-accounting-bulletin-122">public notice</a>, just days after Gary Gensler, a former SEC Chair and vocal supporter of the measure, stepped down from his role. Gensler had defended the rule as necessary to protect investors in the event of crypto firm bankruptcies.
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/trump-crypto-plans-have-wall-street-ceos-excited-about-digital-assets.html">This week</a> in Davos, Switzerland, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GS/">Goldman Sachs</a>&nbsp;CEO David Solomon told CNBC that from a regulatory perspective, the bank couldn't own bitcoin and that it would revisit the issue if the rules changed. The CEOs of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MS/">Morgan Stanley</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BAC/">Bank of America</a> also weighed in from the World Economic Forum on how President <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/donald-trump/">Donald Trump</a>'s pro-crypto tone could reshape their plans and potentially lead to expanded digital offerings.
&nbsp;

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

$ETH

'SEC Revokes Unpopular Banking Rule That Blocked Wall Street Banks From Adopting Crypto' - CNBC

US Existing Home Sales (Dec) 4.24M vs 4.19M Est.

Macro Notification

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) 71.1 vs 73.2 Est.

S&P Global Services PMI 52.8 Vs 56.4 Est.; 56.8 Prior

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.1 Vs 49.8 Est.; 49.4 Prior

10 Stocks I'm Buying As A New Government Takes Power

Donald Trump in heated phone call with Danish Prime Minister over Greenland: report

Now's the time to invest beyond U.S. stocks and bonds: Morgan Stanley's top wealth manager

Trump trade, earnings drive Wall Street's weekly advance, first record close of 2025

In this video, I review the most recent trading session and discuss the mixed messages being delivered by the markets.

V-Ramp Blowoff Top Incoming?

I recently mentioned that markets like to end the week on a high ahead of a national holiday. The weekend before Martin Luther King Jr. Day and the Presidential Inauguration was no exception, as all the indices we follow closed in the green.

A New Dawn For Politics And Markets

JPMorgan sees Trump's 25% tariff threat on Canada and Mexico as a 'bargaining chip'

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday, January 30, than they were on Friday, January 24. 

Technical Market Report For January 25, 2025

Inauguration Sends Confidence Surging Higher

Trump called for lower rates not just in the US but globally. This is unlikely to be the last time he will try to jawbone the central bank into looser monetary policy.  Markets are likely to puke should Fed independence get compromised.

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