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Expertos analizan si el S&amp;P 500 podría enfrentar una corrección tras recientes caídas y altas valoraciones. ¿Es momento de actuar?

Corrección del mercado bursátil: Lo que los expertos predicen para el S&amp;P 500 en 2025

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Los futuros caen ante la &#34;Triple Brujería&#34; y nuevos datos de inflación. ¿Qué dicen los analistas sobre el mercado?

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In a December meeting that will be remembered for its seismic impact on markets, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut Wednesday, bringing the target <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">range to 4.25%-4.5%.</a>
Yet, it wasn't the rate cut itself that shocked Wall Street: it was the Fed&#8217;s revised economic forecasts and Chair Jerome Powell's stance that crushed expectations for deeper rate cuts in 2025.
In its December economic forecasts, the Fed raised inflation projections for 2025, signaling that only two rate cuts might be on the table for the year. This marked a dramatic shift from the expectations that had fueled investor optimism in recent weeks.
Powell cemented this hawkish tone during the press conference, stating that after a 100-basis-point reduction in 2024, the Fed would enter a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">&#8220;new phase&#8221; of monetary policy</a>. With rates nearing neutral levels, Powell emphasized the importance of a cautious approach, erasing any lingering hopes for aggressive easing.
In true Grinch fashion, Powell's message drained investor hopes for a Santa Claus Rally, a seasonal market trend that sees equities showing strong gains in the second half of December.
The S&amp;P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — tumbled 3%, recording its worst single-day drop since September 2022, while the U.S. Dollar Index surged to a two-year high as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42564807/powell-triggers-market-carnage-vix-spikes-58-stocks-plummet-dollar-hits-2-year-highs-bitcoin-nosedives">investors recalibrated their expectations</a>.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) demonstrated significant sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, dropping below $100,000 after reaching a record high of $108,388 one day prior to the Federal Reserve meeting.
Friday brought a brief reprieve as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for November came <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42619788/market-volatility-halts-on-soft-inflation-data-yet-traders-remain-wary-of-fighting-the-fed-10-etfs-moving-friday">in lower than expected.</a> Yet the Fed's sting has left lingering wounds that only sustained progress in disinflation can heal.
The focus now shifts to 2025. Investors are bracing for the fiscal policies of the incoming Trump administration, the potential for a government shutdown and the broader implications of Fed monetary policy.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">ChargePoint-GM Collaboration</h1>
ChargePoint Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CHPT#NYSE">CHPT</a>) and General Motors Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) partnered to deploy ultra-fast EV charging ports at key locations across the U.S. This strategic move aims to enhance electric vehicle infrastructure and accelerate <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42553394/chargepoint-inks-pact-with-general-motors-eyes-installing-ultra-fast-charging-ports-at-key-locations">EV adoption nationwide</a>.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Palantir Defies Gravity</h1>
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>)&#8217;s stock surged Friday after securing a key U.S. Army deal and joining the Nasdaq-100 index. The stock's year-to-date <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/24/12/42620067/palantir-defies-gravity-army-deal-nasdaq-100-spotlight-fuel-rally">gains now top 340%.</a>
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Major indexes are higher following November PCE data.

Benzinga readers pick which Magnificent 7 stock could have the best performance if there is a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/santa-claus-rally"> Santa Claus rally</a> to close 2024 and kickstart 2025.
What Happened: The majority of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/magnificent-seven">Magnificent 7 stocks </a>have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 year-to-date in 2024. With a limited number of trading days left to close out the year, one last question on the mind of investors is whether there will be a Santa Claus rally.
The term &#8220;Santa Claus rally&#8221; was first used by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader's Almanac. The term is associated with the last five trading days of a year and the first two days of the following year.
Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/24/12/42625025/santa-claus-rally-in-2024-poll-shows-investors-split-on-end-of-year-returns-57-say-this">Santa Claus Rally In 2024? Poll Shows Investors Split On End Of Year Returns, 57% Say This…</a>
Combine the Santa Claus rally potential and the Magnificent 7 outperformance in 2024, and you have the latest Benzinga poll.
"Which Magnificent 7 stock will do the best if there's a Santa Rally?" Benzinga asked.
The results were:
<ul>
<li>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>): 28%</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>): 25%</li>
<li>Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>): 17%</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>)(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>): 9%</li>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>): 9%</li>
<li>Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>): 7%</li>
<li>Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>): 5%</li>
</ul>
Nvidia was the winner of the poll with more than one-fourth of the vote, which comes as the stock is the top performer among the Mag 7 stocks for year-to-date and five-year gains. Trailing Nvidia was Tesla, with exactly one-fourth of the vote.
Amazon also received a double-digit percentage ranking third at 17%. The other Mag 7 stocks had much smaller percentages in the poll.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/11/42143676/which-magnificent-7-stock-should-doj-target-next-benzinga-poll-finds-over-50-say">Which Magnificent 7 Stock Should DOJ Target Next? Benzinga Poll Finds Over 50% Say&#8230;</a>
Why It's Important: The expectation for a Santa Claus Rally comes with major stock market indexes enjoying a strong 2024 and could add to their year-to-date gains.
Here are the current year-to-date returns of three of the largest market index ETFs.
<ul>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>): +23.8%</li>
<li>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>): +28.1%</li>
<li>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>): +12.7%</li>
</ul>
For comparison, here are the year-to-date returns of the Magnificent 7 stocks:
<ul>
<li>Nvidia: +177.8%</li>
<li>Tesla: +77.4%</li>
<li>Meta Platforms: +72.9%</li>
<li>Amazon: +49.8%</li>
<li>Alphabet: +38.3%</li>
<li>Apple: +35.8%</li>
<li>Microsoft: +18.7%</li>
</ul>
Nvidia has significantly outperformed the S&amp;P 500 and other major indexes and also the other Magnificent 7 stocks. The Benzinga poll shows that readers think Nvidia could go out on a high note in 2024 and kick 2025 off with a bang if there is a Santa Claus rally.
Only Microsoft trails the S&amp;P 500 and Invesco QQQ Trust year-to-date returns in 2024, showing the strength of the Magnificent 7 stocks this year. 
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/11/42121665/could-another-magnificent-7-stock-beat-nvidia-in-2025-poll-says-not-likely-27-pick-this-potential-winner">A recent Benzinga poll</a> asked if any Magnificent 7 stocks could beat Nvidia for stock returns in 2025. The results were:
<ul>
<li>None – Nvidia will dominate: 48%</li>
<li>Tesla: 27%</li>
<li>Amazon: 8%</li>
<li>Meta: 7%</li>
<li>Alphabet: 6%</li>
<li>Microsoft: 3%</li>
<li>Apple: 2%</li>
</ul>
The poll found the near-majority predicting Nvidia will have the strongest growth in 2025 and dominate the Magnificent 7 stocks once again.
Based on the recent polls, Benzinga readers don't expect the gains for Nvidia to stop anytime soon and a Santa Claus rally could accelerate the company's potential 2025 gains.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42352997/santa-rally-here-are-10-sp-500-stocks-that-historically-outperformed-in-decembers-second-half">Santa Rally: 10 S&amp;P 500 Stocks That Outperform In December&#8217;s Second Half</a></li>
</ul>
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Dec. 18 through Dec. 19, 2024, and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 169 adults.
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Which Magnificent 7 Stock Will Do Best In Santa Claus Rally? Tesla Edged Out As 28% Select…

Risk sentiment returned to Wall Street on Friday, revitalized by softer-than-expected November inflation data leading to a strong market rebound following the selloff triggered by the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief">Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent meeting.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, falling short of the 2.5% increase forecasted. The core PCE, a key gauge closely watched by the Fed, also missed expectations, rising 2.8% compared to the anticipated 2.9%.
By midday Friday, all major indices were in rally mode, with broad-based gains across sectors. In the S&amp;P 500, 480 companies traded higher, and every sector advanced as investors welcomed the reprieve in inflationary pressures.
The real estate sector led the charge, rebounding sharply after being hit hardest in the aftermath of the Fed meeting. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 also posted robust gains, powered by a strong recovery in regional banks.
The travel industry soared, driven by upbeat earnings and optimistic guidance from Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>), which fueled enthusiasm across the sector. The cruise line rose by 6%, eyeing the highest close since October 2021. 
In the bond market, yields dropped by approximately 5 basis points across the curve, boosting Treasury prices. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained nearly 1%, recovering some ground after a 3% slide over the previous two sessions. The dollar softened, declining 0.6%, while gold gained over 1%. 
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) attracted dip buyers after plunging to $92,118. Although the cryptocurrency pared its daily losses, it remains on track for its worst weekly performance in four months.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,853.53</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,934.51</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,246.04</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,339.90</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent121924&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 1.1% to $592.31.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 1.2% to $429.61.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) edged 1.4% higher to $521.53.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) soared 1.2% to $222.59.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) outperformed, up by 2.3%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) lagged, up 0.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<ul>
<li>Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) plummeted 17%, marking its worst single-day drop since April 2002. after disappointing weight-loss trial data for<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/12/42623343/exclusive-weight-loss-market-experts-scoop-up-novo-nordisk-stock-after-worst-drop-since-2002-following-drug-trial-miss"> its obesity drug, CagriSema.</a></li>
<li>Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>) rallied over 8% as analysts at OTR Research raised the stock rating from Negative to Mixed.</li>
<li>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) also rallied over 6% in reaction to Carnival Cruise&#8217;s upbeat results. Other travel-related companies seeing strong gains Friday included Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABNB#NASDAQ">ABNB</a>), up 3.9%, Hyatt Hotels Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/H#NYSE">H</a>), up 3.4%, and Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>), up 3.6%.</li>
<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) fell 1.2% in reaction to its latest quarterly results and FedEx Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) inched 0.6% higher. </li>
</ul>
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With a limited number of trading days left to close out the 2024 year, one last question on the mind of investors is whether there will be a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42547783/santa-claus-rally-is-facing-some-indigestion-says-ubs-expert-the-market-is-basically-taking-a-little-bit-of-a-probably-well-needed-pause">Santa Claus rally.</a>
Here's a look at what Benzinga readers said in a new poll.
What Happened: The term<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/santa-claus-rally"> Santa Claus rally </a>was first used by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader's Almanac.
The term is <a href="https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/Alert/20220104.aspx">associated </a>with the last five trading days of a year and the first two days of the following year and often see higher prices for numerous reasons.
This time of the year includes year-end portfolio rebalancing, holiday sales data and optimism for the new year ahead, which can often lead to strong returns for major stock market indexes.
"Do you think there will be a Santa Rally this year," Benzinga recently asked readers.
The results were:
<ul>
<li>Yes, I expect a rally: 57%</li>
<li>No, I don't think so: 43%</li>
</ul>
The poll was fairly evenly split with the majority saying they expect a Santa Claus rally to end 2024 and kick-start 2025.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/12/42259188/tech-stocks-set-for-strong-santa-rally-as-wall-street-looks-for-an-end-to-regulatory-spider-web-in-the-trump-era-says-dan-ives">Tech Stocks Set For Strong Santa Rally As Wall Street Looks For An End To &#8216;Regulatory Spider Web&#8217; In The Trump Era, Says Dan Ives</a>
Why It's Important: The expectation for a Santa Claus rally comes with major stock market indexes enjoying a strong 2024 and could add to their year-to-date gains.
Here are the current year-to-date returns of three of the largest market index ETFs.
<ul>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>): +23.8%</li>
<li>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>): +28.1%</li>
<li>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>): +12.7%</li>
</ul>
Data from the Stock Trader's Almanac found that from 1950 through 2022 a Santa Claus rally occurred 58 times, or 79.4% of the time. The average gain in the S&amp;P 500 during the Santa Clause rally those years was 1.4%.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42352997/santa-rally-here-are-10-sp-500-stocks-that-historically-outperformed-in-decembers-second-half">Benzinga recently shared</a> that data from LPL Financial showed that December is the second-best month for S&amp;P 500 returns since 1950, with an average return of 1.6%. December trails only November since 1950, with an average S&amp;P 500 return of 1.8%. The strong December returns are often weighted to the second half of the month. 
While many people will get presents to celebrate the Christmas holiday, investors could get the gift of higher stock prices based on historical returns and the Benzinga reader poll.
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The study was conducted by Benzinga from Dec. 18 through Dec. 19, 2024, and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 241 adults.

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Education

Santa Claus Rally In 2024? Poll Shows Investors Split On End Of Year Returns, 57% Say This…

<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/us-plans-to-blacklist-company-that-ordered-tsmc-chip-found-in-huawei-processor/articleshow/116510709.cms?from=mdr" title="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/us-plans-to-blacklist-company-that-ordered-tsmc-chip-found-in-huawei-processor/articleshow/116510709.cms?from=mdr">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/us-plans-to-blacklist-company-that-ordered-tsmc-chip-found-in-huawei-processor/articleshow/116510709.cms?from=mdr</a>

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The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in cooler-than-expected on Friday. PCE inflation growth reached 2.4% in November, up from 2.3% in October, but came in below<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief"> economist forecasts of 2.5%.&nbsp;</a>
Expert Ideas: Economists are weighing in on November's cool PCE data and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve and markets heading into 2025.&nbsp;
"Sticky inflation appeared to be a little less stuck this morning," Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade Morgan Stanley, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/pce-inflation-november-2024-.html">told </a>CNBC. 
"The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in lower than expected, which may take some of the sting out of the market's disappointment with the Fed's interest rate announcement on Wednesday," Larkin said.&nbsp;
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Markets do appear to be celebrating the report with all major indices in the green. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), tracking the S&amp;P 500, is up 1.7% at $594.40 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, is up 1.8% at $523.54 at the time of publication. 
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, sees it as "increasingly likely" that the economy accelerated in the current quarter, which would lead to concerns about inflation accelerating and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. 
"Given the fact that we are almost certain to see an increase in service prices and rents at the turn of the year expect more cautious language at the Fed which clearly thinks policy has shifted into a new phase that is going to focus on price stability over employment in 2025," Brusuelas said.&nbsp;
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Image: Shutterstock

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Weekly Technical Update: S&P 500 - Sunday, Dec. 22

Sure XLRE, XLU got a boost, but look at where XLF, KRE were able to reach Friday and this IWM underperformance makes sense, because - yields.

Short Squeeze Vs. New Upleg

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