The probability of a U.S. recession has surged to its highest level in two years as JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. signals that President Donald Trump's trade policies could deliver a bigger <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">shock to business sentiment</a>, global supply chains and central bank flexibility than previously expected.



In a research <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability?source=cib_em_nl_Apr022025_slotA_btn&amp;mkt_tok=NzI2LUtaWS00MDIAAAGZlVmdz_lntA_bT2uwhpHqqMSQHL12vLgJp-Yl7kM3V_COKlZb9MaKn0YRZCNbqyj_-jkBJ3culZFszGSy1h6GGrcC5LiPz7XEOA7KoD1jhrc#top">note</a> published this week, JPMorgan's chief global economist Bruce Kasman said the bank now places the risk of a U.S. recession at 40%, up from 30%, largely due to the looming rollout of a fresh wave of tariffs.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs Represent A Triple Threat </h3>



"The administration's shift in the application of&nbsp;tariff policy&nbsp;and the potential impact on sentiment have contributed to this increased risk," said Kasman. 



According to the expert, the upcoming trade measures would lift the effective U.S. tariff rate to over 10%, slicing 0.5 percentage points off global and U.S. GDP in 2025. 



That headline number may appear modest, but the true risk lies beneath: "Our concern… is that three related impulses magnify the size of this drag," he said.



First, Trump's policies risk eroding investor confidence in a business-friendly regulatory environment. 



Second, potential restrictions on immigration and cross-border trade could ripple through supply chains. Third, rising inflation expectations might limit the Federal Reserve's ability to counteract the damage through monetary easing.



"Even after accounting for retaliatory actions, this drag is not large enough to threaten an expansion that stands on fundamentally solid ground," Kasman said. But if these three impulses kick in, he added, they could significantly worsen the economic impact.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Sentiment Cracks Are Already Visible</h3>



Business and consumer confidence are starting to wane. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44537936/consumer-inflation-expectations-skyrocket-in-march-hit-highest-levels-in-32-years">The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index</a> dropped to a three-year low in March, while recent Federal Reserve surveys show that capital expenditure intentions among U.S. firms have weakened.



Kasman noted that although sentiment hasn't yet driven a pullback in consumer spending, an inflation-driven erosion of purchasing power could become the tipping point. 



"The linkage between consumer confidence and spending has been weak during this expansion… the main near-term risk is the threat of an inflation-driven squeeze," he said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A US Slowdown Could Hit The World Economy Hard</h3>



JPMorgan warned that the global economy is tightly tethered to U.S. momentum. Their research finds that a negative shock to U.S. GDP tends to trigger a 1-to-1 response globally, meaning a U.S.-led downturn could reverberate sharply.



In Europe, the consequences could be especially severe. Kasman said that a global recession, sparked by U.S. policy and sentiment shocks, would likely have a nonlinear impact on the eurozone, dragging down growth across the Economic and Monetary Union through tighter financial conditions.



While JPMorgan's global manufacturing expectations index — a key measure of industrial outlook — has improved recently, the bank attributes that to a front-loaded recovery in global industry that is merely delaying a broader sentiment shock.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Does This Mean for Fed Policy?</h3>



JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025, likely in June and September, in line with the central bank's latest projections.



"The combination of higher inflation and weaker employment growth creates a dilemma for the Fed," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at the bank.



"We are sticking to our prior forecast for two cuts but can understand why the market looks for more."



The Fed's March projections saw core inflation for 2025 rising to 2.8%, up from 2.5%, and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%, from 4.3%. 



JPMorgan slightly trimmed its own 2025 growth estimate to 1.6%, and raised its peak unemployment forecast to 4.4%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from earlier expectations.



Read now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44589523/trumps-liberation-day-tariff-plan-could-ignite-global-trade-shakeup-betting-markets-price-in-the-pain">Trump Tariffs Could Ignite Global Trade Shakeup: Betting Markets Price In Pain</a></li>
</ul>



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JPMorgan Hikes Recession Odds As Tariffs Create 'A Dilemma For The Fed'

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) announced the details of its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/04/b44606521/tesla-first-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments" rel="noreferrer noopener">first-quarter production</a>, deliveries, and deployment on Wednesday. The stock fell after the disclosure.



The electric vehicle company produced 362,615 vehicles (including 345,454 Model 3/Y), down from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/04/38047077/tesla-stock-dives-as-q1-deliveries-disappoint-but-ev-giant-reclaims-top-spot-from-chinese-rival" rel="noreferrer noopener">433,371 a year ago</a>.



It delivered 336,681 vehicles (323,800 Model 3/Y), down from 386,810 vehicles a year ago.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44330619/tesla-bets-on-low-cost-evs-in-china-after-february-sales-hit-two-year-low" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla Bets On Low-Cost EVs in China After February Sales Hit Two-Year Low</a>



The company said that while the changeover of Model Y lines across all four of its factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in the first quarter, the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well.



Tesla also deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products.



Tesla stock has plunged 32% year-to-date. The company&#8217;s U.S. registrations dropped 11% in January, while rivals like Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) and Volkswagen (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VWAGY#OTC">VWAGY</a>) saw a 44% surge.



Tesla&#8217;s EU registrations <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44283118/tesla-loses-ground-in-us-ev-market-while-rivals-accelerate-ahead-in-january-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">halved in January</a> as brand sentiment and political backlash weigh on growth. Meanwhile, Musk&nbsp;announced that&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;would double its vehicle production in the U.S. within two years.



Additionally, President Donald Trump transformed the White House to showcase Tesla vehicles in solidarity with&nbsp;his senior advisor and de facto head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk and his company. Trump also&nbsp;purchased a Tesla Model S Plaid.



Musk has acknowledged the challenges of running his business while working with DOGE amid a massive decline in Tesla&#8217;s stock price.&nbsp;



Wedbush&nbsp;analyst Daniel Ives projected <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/03/44519930/tesla-turmoil-analyst-pins-hope-new-era-robotics-fsd" rel="noreferrer noopener">first-quarter deliveries</a> in the 355,000-360,000 range. That&#8217;s down ~7%, courtesy of demand softness in Europe, the U.S., and China.



Ives estimated that 30% of the very soft first-quarter delivery number is related to Tesla chief Elon Musk, the brand, and DOGE. About 70% is more timing and non-brand headwind issues.



Ives projected first-quarter revenue of $24.05 billion and EPS of 56 cents. He expects the first quarter to be the &#8220;low point.&#8221;



Tesla&#8217;s full self-driving technology, affordable vehicle launch, more Model 3/Y refreshes, and autonomous and robotics/Optimus technology improvements &#8220;set the stage for a new era of growth,&#8221; according to the analyst.



Price Action: TSLA stock is down 1.20% at $265.23 at the last check on Wednesday.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/04/44582215/chinas-xpeng-clocks-record-q1-ev-sales-deliveries-surge-3-6x" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">China&#8217;s XPeng Clocks Record Q1 EV Sales, Deliveries Surge 3.6X</a></li>
</ul>



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Tesla's Deliveries Slide In Q1 Amid Production Setbacks, Political Backlash

A filing from Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) registers millions of shares for sale as a primary offering and millions of shares that can be sold in a secondary offering,<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/09/40943414/donald-trump-can-cash-out-his-trump-media-technology-stock-keep-company-control-heres-how-ma"> including those belonging to</a> President Donald Trump.



What Happened: Trump Media &amp; Technology stock has<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/41760961/djt-stock-volatile-on-election-day-donald-trumps-media-company-reports-q3-earnings-growth-initiativ"> been highly volatile</a> since the 2024 presidential election, which co-founder Donald Trump won.



Shares may continue to be volatile in 2025, with a new offering announced this week via a company filing.



The S-3 registration <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2660/0001140361-25-011700.pdf">statement </a>registers a primary offering of up to 8,370,686 shares.



A secondary offering registers up to 134,078,598 shares for sale from time to time. Included in this total are 114,750,000 shares of common shares held by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust.



"The selling security holders may offer and sell, from time to time, any or all of the shares of common stock or warrants being offered for resale by this prospectus," the filing reads.



The secondary offering shares registered include the following:



<ul>
<li>30,147 placement shares</li>



<li>627,521 shares previously registered for resale</li>



<li>79,538 remaining unsold or unexercised shares issuable upon the exercise of placement warrants</li>



<li>114,750,000 President Trump shares</li>



<li>17,314,015 Yorkville shares</li>



<li>2,002 MZHCI shares</li>



<li>1,275,375 asset acquisition shares</li>



<li>79,538 warrants to purchase common stock</li>



<li>8,370,686 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of public warrants that were previously registered</li>
</ul>



The company said the shares registered to sell represent 60.8% of the company's total outstanding shares.



The secondary offering of registered shares includes stock owned by Attorney General Pam Bondi, who previously acquired DJT shares for consulting work on the SPAC merger of Trump Media &amp; Technology and Digital World Acquisition.



Read Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44564762/trump-media-to-begin-trading-on-nyse-texas-with-djt-ticker-amid-stock-slump"> Trump Media To Begin Trading On NYSE Texas With DJT Ticker Amid Stock Slump</a>



Why It's Important: The share registration does not mean that all shareholders listed will sell their stock. The filing registers shares that can now be sold in the future.



Trump has promised not to sell his stake in the media company he co-founded.



"No, I'm not selling. No, I love it," Trump said back in September <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/09/40860859/trump-media-technology-shares-surge-former-president-says-hes-not-selling-or-leaving-truth-s">during a campaign speech.</a>



The president said he uses Truth Social, owned by the media company he co-founded, to spread his message.



Trump also said he would not leave Truth Social for X in the same speech.



&#8220;I&#8217;m not leaving. I love it,&#8221; he reiterated.



In the speech, Trump highlighted how his stake was worth billions of dollars, but he wouldn't be selling.



&#8220;I&#8217;m not going to sell my shares. I don&#8217;t need money.&#8221;



Today, the DJT shares are worth $2.18 billion.



In November, Trump again confirmed he was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/24/11/41853221/trump-says-he-wont-sell-trump-media-stock">not planning on selling</a> his DJT shares and said that rumors and reports that he was were fake. 



Trump Media &amp; Technology highlighted its growth plans in the share filing, which include the recent rollout of Truth Social streaming apps <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/03/44398390/trump-media-launches-truth-on-roku-calling-it-the-singular-option-for-non-woke-tv">for home TV </a>and the launch of Truth.Fi financial services.



The company's main growth plans going forward are:



<ul>
<li>Grow Truth Social</li>



<li>Increase Product Offerings and Services</li>



<li>Pursue Strategic Acquisitions and/or Partnerships</li>
</ul>



DJT Price Action: Trump Media &amp; Technology stock is down 6.1% to $19.03 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $11.75 to $56.55. The stock is down 44.1% year-to-date in 2025 and down 63.1% over the last year.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/12/42447434/democratic-congressman-bought-djt-stock-after-2024-election-months-after-saying-donald-trump-unfit-to-serve">Democratic Congressman Bought DJT Stock After 2024 Election, Months After Saying Donald Trump &#8216;Unfit To Serve&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



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Trading Ideas

Trump Media & Technology Stock Drops On Share Registration: Will President Trump Sell His Stake?

Private sector job growth exceeded expectations in March, signaling a surprisingly resilient labor market even as U.S. businesses face growing uncertainty over <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">the potential impact of tariffs.</a>



U.S. private employers added 155,000 jobs in March, according to the latest Employment Report from Automatic Data Processing.



The figure represents a notable pickup from February's upwardly revised total of 84,000 and comes in well above the market forecast of 105,000.



&#8220;Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,&#8221; said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Where Did Jobs Grow In March?</h3>



The latest figures showed job gains across both service-providing and goods-producing sectors.



Goods-producing industries added 24,000 positions in March, with manufacturing contributing 13,000 new jobs. 



Meanwhile, service-providing sectors expanded by 132,000 jobs, led by professional and business services, which added 57,000 roles. However, trade, transportation, and utilities shed 6,000 positions.



The ADP report also pointed to a continued easing in wage growth. Annual pay increases stood at 4.6% for job stayers, while job changers saw a 6.5% rise.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>



The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>),&nbsp;fell by 0.2% after the report.



Futures on major U.S. indices were sharply lower during premarket trading in New York. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was 1.2% lower by 8:25 a.m. ET.



Gold – tracked by&nbsp;SPDR Gold Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) – traded at $3,120 per ounce, up 0.3%. 



Read now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/25/04/44596034/goldman-warns-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-could-spike-us-fuel-prices">Goldman Warns Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Liberation Day&#8217; Tariffs Could Spike US Fuel Prices</a></li>
</ul>



Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Private Employment Beats Expectations In March As Labor Market Shrugs Off Tariff Worries

In the lead-up to &#8216;Liberation Day&#8217;, car dealerships in the US are seeing a spike in footfalls, as consumers race to book their new vehicles to avoid the post-tariff sticker shock that, according to some estimates, could <a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/25/03/44556198/tesla-bull-says-there-are-no-winners-with-trumps-auto-tariffs-calls-it-pure-chaos-for-global-supply-chains">reach as high as $10,000 to $15,000</a> even for mid-range cars.



What Happened: The looming 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US is set to become a reality within a few short hours, and it&#8217;s not just on the cars that are imported, but also those that are made in the US, but use imported parts. Since there is no such thing as an &#8216;All-American Car,&#8217; pretty much every make and model will see prices spike in the coming days.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44578839/trumps-25-tariff-on-imported-vehicles-could-shatter-detroits-auto-economy-warns-business-leaders-it-will-hurt-hardworking-americans">Trump&#8217;s 25% Tariff On Imported Vehicles Could Shatter Detroit&#8217;s Auto Economy, Warns Business Leaders: &#8216;It Will Hurt Hardworking Americans&#8217;</a>



Erin Keating, an analyst at Cox Automotive, said in a note that after this spike, which will last several days, auto sales will crater for the next several months. Both used and new car prices will increase, and certain models will be eliminated from American markets.



Keating further adds, &#8220;We have seen this movie before. During COVID, supply became constrained, costs skyrocketed. While the increase in prices this time may be for completely different reasons, it still stands to reason that the market will not bear another significant increase,&#8221; highlighting the risks these tariffs pose to the auto industry.



Why It Matters: As a result, car makers and dealerships are expected to have a good first quarter, but that&#8217;s not necessarily the case for Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), which is set to report its deliveries during the quarter on Wednesday.



Analysts expect the company to report its worst quarterly growth in years with just under 410,000 deliveries, up by a mere 5% from the prior year. This was expected as the brand took a nosedive across several key markets in recent months, in response to Elon Musk&#8217;s increasing political involvement.



Tariffs are set to <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44507598/elon-musk-warns-of-significant-impact-on-tesla-due-to-trumps-auto-tariffs-the-cost-impact-is-not-trivial">hurt Tesla especially hard</a> since analysts estimate that they would add as much as $12,000 to the prices of most current EV models.



As you can expect, Tesla isn&#8217;t doing too well with all these issues, and according to Benzinga&#8217;s Edge Rankings, the stock is unfavorable in short, medium, and long-term. To see how the EV giant compares with its peers and competitors, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">check out Benzinga Edge Pro</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="168" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02061119/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-3.37.04-PM-1024x168.png" alt="" class="wp-image-852942" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02061119/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-3.37.04-PM-1024x168.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02061119/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-3.37.04-PM-300x49.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02061119/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-3.37.04-PM-768x126.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02061119/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-3.37.04-PM.png 1418w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



Read More:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44522387/japanese-automakers-face-29-billion-tariff-hit-nissan-mazda-subaru-most-at-risk-says-analyst">Japanese Automakers Face $29 Billion Tariff Hit, Nissan, Mazda, Subaru Most At Risk, Says Analyst</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

US Car Buyers Throng Dealerships As Trump's Tariff Threat Looms Over Prices

As markets brace for the impact of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44589523/trumps-liberation-day-tariff-plan-could-ignite-global-trade-shakeup-betting-markets-price-in-the-pain">President Trump&#8217;s tariff announcements</a>, experts point to regulatory clarity as bullish catalyst, while a looming correction in equities remains the most <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44598254/bitcoin-is-in-a-mini-bear-market-says-10x-research">prominent downside risk.</a>



What Happened Despite a global macro backdrop filled with uncertainties—from proposed sweeping U.S. tariffs to stubborn inflation and elevated rates—digital assets have shown remarkable resilience.



But analysts and industry leaders warn that the current rally may be masking deeper tensions.



Speaking with Benzinga, Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, a key contributor to the Pyth Network (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/">PYTH</a>), believes the optimism in markets is short-term in nature.



"Markets rallying into the tariff announcement reflect a classic case of short-term optimism winning out over long-term uncertainty," he said. 



For Cahill, the real story isn't about euphoria or complacency, but selective positioning by experienced traders. "Calling it ‘nothing ever happens' is premature," he added.



Cahill sees regulatory clarity, particularly around stablecoins and tokenized assets, as the clearest positive catalyst ahead. 



"That's the green light institutions are waiting for to go all in," he said. 



On the flip side, he warns that a macro shock, driven by high rates and escalating trade tensions, could rapidly sap liquidity and hurt sentiment across risk assets, including crypto.



Gadi Chait, Investment Manager at Xapo Bank, framed the recent market drop as part of a broader tug-of-war between long-term conviction and short-term anxiety.



"Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) investors have been bracing for today's announcement, so a price drop comes as no surprise," he said, referring to anticipated trade actions from the Trump administration. 



For Chait, Bitcoin remains a long-term bet on sovereignty and scarcity, unaffected by momentary volatility. "We've been here before, and we'll likely be here again, but Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains undeniable."



The price of Bitcoin has recently fluctuated between $76,600 and $94,500, stabilizing around $85,000 on Tuesday.



Chait cautioned that a break below $76,600 could shift sentiment decisively, but until then, the broader range remains intact.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/25/04/44590297/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-advocates-for-stablecoins-consumers-deserve-a-bigger-piece-of-the-pie">Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Advocates For Stablecoins: &#8216;Consumers Deserve A Bigger Piece Of The Pie&#8217;</a>



Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, emphasized that geopolitical tension could actually amplify Bitcoin's appeal. 



"Trump's proposed tariffs potentially supercharge Bitcoin's appeal by shaking confidence in fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar," he said. 



Lee also noted that stagflation risk—rising prices without accompanying growth—might drive more traders toward decentralized assets as traditional safe havens falter. 



"We'd expect a spike in Bitcoin demand—perfect for our users to ride the wave using spot, futures, or our staking options," Lee added.



Why It Matters: Still, not all analysts are interpreting the current moment as a full-blown crypto bull run.



Xia Yumin, CTO at Galxe, noted that gains in the space have largely been isolated to Bitcoin, with Ethereum and most altcoins lagging. 



"If we examine the market at a micro level, the significant gains are mainly concentrated in Bitcoin," Yumin observed. 



While Bitcoin may challenge prior highs in the coming quarter, Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>), he said, will need more technical or sentiment-driven momentum to break out.



Looking ahead, Yumin identified macroeconomic policy—specifically U.S. interest rates—as a defining force for crypto valuations. 



"Interest rate cuts as anticipated during each FOMC meeting will continue to elevate BTC's valuation as a scarce asset," he said.



He also pointed to a clear and present risk: a downturn in U.S. equities. "In a crypto market that currently lacks its own independent narrative, any downturn in equities will likely drag crypto down with it."



As traders await more details on the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs," estimated to impact nearly $3 trillion in imports, the financial markets <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44591699/eric-trump-hails-bitcoin-as-one-of-the-greatest-stores-of-value">are sending mixed signals.</a> 



U.S. bond yields remain elevated, and expectations for a Fed rate cut remain tepid. 



The CME FedWatch tool currently shows markets pricing in an 85.5% chance of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44602347/us-stock-futures-slip-ahead-of-liberation-day-tariffs-announcement-more-uncertainty-means-higher-risk-premia-says-analyst">Fed holding rates steady through May.</a>



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44587813/titandex-ceo-chris-chung-advocates-social-consensus-for-crypto-ethics-sees-bright-future-for-defi">Crypto Industry Needs To Enforce Ethical Norms, TitanDex CEO Chris Chung Says</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Cryptocurrency

$BTC

$ETH

$PYTH

Bitcoin Braces For Trump Tariff Announcement: 'Short-Term Optimism' Has The Upper Hand, Experts Say

U.S. stock futures slipped on Wednesday after a mixed session on Tuesday. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower in premarket trading.



As the &#8220;Liberation Day&#8221; has arrived, traders will look for cues from President Donald Trump&#8217;s &#8220;reciprocal tariffs&#8221; scheduled to be announced later today.



The administration is reportedly considering a widespread 20% tariff that would affect a large portion of the $3 trillion in yearly imports, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/01/trump-tariffs-draft-recession-projection/">a</a> Washington Post report.



The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.17% and the two-year bond was at 3.88%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a> shows markets pricing in an 85.5% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates through its May meeting.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.17%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.22%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>-0.29%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.30%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, dropped in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.25% to $559.58, while the QQQ declined 0.34% to $471.10, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Driven by gains in consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology, the S&amp;P 500 closed slightly higher on Tuesday, though overall U.S. stocks settled mixed.



Conversely, the health care and financial sectors experienced declines. This sector divergence occurred as investors anticipated the Trump administration&#8217;s upcoming tariff announcements.



Meanwhile, broader market indices reflected significant losses for March and the first quarter of the year: the S&amp;P 500 saw its largest monthly drop since December 2022, falling 5.8%, while the Nasdaq and Dow tumbled 8.2% and 4.2% respectively. Quarterly, the Nasdaq declined 10.4%, the Dow 1.3%, and the S&amp;P 500 also recorded a loss.



Economic data revealed a decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI, an increase in construction spending, and a decrease in job openings.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.67%</td><td>17,449.89</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.38%</td><td>5,633.07</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.028%</td><td>41,989.96</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>0.016%</td><td>2,012.24</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



As investors await further direction on the economy&#8217;s outlook after Trump&#8217;s tariffs, Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, in his <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/study-contrasts-week-33125-jurrien-timmer-gjkwe/">recent note</a> said that &#8220;More uncertainty means higher risk premia.&#8221;



Th refers to the additional return investors expect to receive for taking on a riskier investment compared to a risk-free investment. It&#8217;s essentially the reward for bearing greater uncertainty.



He observes a significant shift in market sentiment, moving from confidence to doubt. He notes, &#8220;Markets continue to price in a possible left tail,&#8221; with the S&amp;P 500 hovering at the -10% correction threshold.



Timmer distinguishes between sharp, swift drawdowns, like the 1998 LTCM crisis, and potential recession-driven corrections. &#8220;Market cycles that are priced for recessions that don't happen are the ones we want to rebalance into.&#8221; However, he cautions that if fiscal austerity and trade tensions trigger a recession, &#8220;we are likely not done correcting.&#8221; The core-PCE inflation rate near 3% further complicates matters, potentially limiting the Fed&#8217;s support.



While acknowledging the difficulty of predicting market movements in real time, he emphasizes the importance of analyzing &#8220;the tape, sentiment, valuation, earnings estimates, and credit.&#8221; While the market appears &#8220;moderately oversold&#8221; and sentiment is cautious, it doesn&#8217;t indicate recessionary pricing, warranting &#8220;further patience.&#8221;



Regarding diversification, Timmer points to the performance of international equities, Treasuries, and gold. He also poses the crucial question: &#8220;whether the rotation out of the Mag 7 is a bump along the road to continued AI and mega cap dominance, or the BIG one.&#8221; He stresses that if a new secular regime is emerging, &#8220;the game going forward will be all about the alpha instead of the beta,&#8221; necessitating a wider asset allocation and lower equity return expectations.



Timmer also notes the historical occurrence of 10% drawdowns, stating &#8220;The odds of being in a 10% drawdown have been around 40% for the S&amp;P 500,&#8221; and that there is no clear historical pattern of what happens after a 10% decline. He also notes a similarity between the current market and the 1998 LTCM crisis, both catalyzed by an unwinding of crowded trades.



According to Eugenia Mykuliak, the founder and executive director at B2PRIME Group, tariffs can cause a disruption in global supply chains, which will lead businesses to reassess their supply routes.



A recalibration of the supply chain will lead to &#8220;Capital outflows from emerging markets and increased market volatility,&#8221; said Mykuliak.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Wednesday:



<ul>
<li>March&#8217;s ADP employment data will be out by 8:15 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>February&#8217;s factory orders data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at 4:30 p.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul>
<li>UniFirst Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNF#NYSE">UNF</a>) was up 0.36% in premarket on Wednesday ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $1.34 per share on revenue of $602.80 million.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>BlackBerry Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BB#NYSE">BB</a>) advanced 3.22% as Wall Street expects it to report a quarterly earnings of 1 cent per share on revenue of $132.83 million before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>) rose 2.07% ahead of its earnings after the closing bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share on revenue of $829.56 million.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Sportsman&#8217;s Warehouse Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPWH#NASDAQ">SPWH</a>) jumped 31.61% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and sales results for its fourth quarter on Tuesday.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>nCino Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCNO#NASDAQ">NCNO</a>) plunged 31.33%, reporting weaker-than-expected earnings for its fourth quarter, while sales topped estimates. The company also said it sees first-quarter total revenue of $138.75 million to $140.75 million and adjusted earnings of 15 cents to 16 cents per share.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) was 0.45% lower after completing its $4.9 billion acquisition of data-center equipment designer ZT Systems.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Syra Health Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SYRA#NASDAQ">SYRA</a>) slumped 59.24% after it announced a voluntary delisting from the Nasdaq Capital Market.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Seritage Growth Properties (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SRG#NYSE">SRG</a>) declined 29.29% after it generated $61.8 million in asset sales, but reported a $158.4 million net loss for the year.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Sunshine Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBFM#NASDAQ">SBFM</a>) surged 54.77% after its 2024 revenue surged to $34.9 million from $24.1 million in the year-ago period.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Antelope Enterprise Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEHL#NASDAQ">AEHL</a>) plummeted 30.05% after announcing a 1-for-40 reverse stock split.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.13% to hover around $71.11 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar advanced 0.30% to hover around $3,133.45 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,149.03 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.11% at the 104.144 level.



Asian markets closed on a mixed note on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's ASX 200 index advanced. Whereas China&#8217;s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi index fell. European markets were also mixed in early trade.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44601482/gold-holds-above-3100-mark-price-surge-reflects-growing-economic-uncertainty-here-are-some">Gold Holds Above $3,100 Mark Amid Growing Economic Uncertainty: Here Are Some ETFs To Capitalize On The Golden Rush</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Equities

Market Summary

Futures

Commodities

Forex

Treasuries

Pre-Market Outlook

Markets

AEHL

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SBFM

SPWH

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US Stock Futures Slip Ahead Of 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Announcement: Expert Points To Uncertainty Amid Higher Risk Premia

In a move to bolster its AI data-center offerings, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) completed its $4.9 billion acquisition of data-center equipment designer ZT Systems on Monday.



What Happened: The acquisition, first announced in August, is a strategic move by AMD to strengthen its data-center systems offerings and position itself as a strong contender against Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>). This acquisition will allow AMD to provide alternatives to Nvidia&#8217;s dominant chips and servers to key clients such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).



AMD&#8217;s CEO, Lisa Su, highlighted the increasing complexity of hardware integration with the rise of AI, stating, &#8220;You&nbsp;really have to put the&nbsp;entire system together.&#8221;



See Also: <a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44593554/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-dogecoin-surge-as-trader-eyes-88000-for-btc-to-touch-new-higher-high" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Surge As Trader Eyes $88,000 For BTC To Touch &#8216;New Higher High&#8217;</a>



AMD&#8217;s acquisition of ZT is aimed at securing a share of the &#8220;AI factory,&#8221; a concept associated with Nvidia&#8217;s strategy of providing a one-stop solution for all key data center components. AMD sets itself apart by offering an open-source ecosystem, allowing customers to select their preferred components.



AMD has also incorporated ZT Systems&#8217;&nbsp;1,000 design engineers, who focus on hardware and server design, into the AMD Data Center Solutions division. 



Frank Zhang, Former ZT Systems Founder and CEO, joins AMD as senior vice president of ZT Manufacturing, while Former President Doug Huang joins as senior vice president of Data Center Platform Engineering



Why It Matters: The acquisition of ZT Systems by AMD marked a significant expansion of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/24/08/40438854/amd-expands-ai-capabilities-acquires-zt-systems-in-major-4-9b-deal">AMD&#8217;s AI capabilities</a>. The deal is seen as a major step towards enhancing AMD&#8217;s position in the AI infrastructure market.



ZT Systems, a privately held company based in Secaucus, N.J., had over $10 billion in annual revenue when the deal was announced. AMD is now in the process of selling ZT's manufacturing unit. 



During the past years, AMD has acquired other companies to strengthen its data center capabilities. In 2022, AMD acquired Xilinx and Pensando to strengthen its data-center offerings.



AMD&#8217;s strategy to strengthen its data-center offerings was further highlighted recently when the company announced that its fifth-generation AMD EPYC <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44568964/amd-powers-oracle-cloud-with-new-epyc-chips-promising-major-boost-in-performance">processors would </a>power the Oracle Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>) Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Compute E6 Standard shapes. This move promised a significant boost in performance, with up to a 2 times increase in cost-to-performance compared to the previous E5 instance generation.



AMD holds a momentum rating of 12.93% and a growth rating of 66.54%, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AMD" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga's Proprietary Edge Rankings</a>. For an in-depth report on more stocks and insights into growth opportunities,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/screener/top-momentum-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">sign</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/screener/top-momentum-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">up for Benzinga Edge.</a>



<ul>
<li>Read Next: <a href="https://benzinga.com/tech/25/03/44487389/sundar-pichai-shows-off-googles-most-intelligent-ai-ever-with-a-dinosaur-video-game-that-even-you-could-make-with-a-simple-prompt" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Sundar Pichai Shows Off Google&#8217;s &#8216;Most Intelligent AI&#8217; Ever With A Dinosaur Video Game That Even You Could Make With A Simple Prompt</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

GOOGL

MSFT

NVDA

ORCL

Nvidia Rival AMD Completes $4.9B Acquisition Of ZT Systems To Strengthen AI And Data Center Dominance

Tesla Inc.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) sales in key European markets continued their downward trend in March, extending losses for a third consecutive month in multiple countries as the electric vehicle maker faces mounting challenges from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44599196/gene-munster-warns-teslas-q1-deliveries-will-be-ugly-expects-june-to-be-worse-before-gradual-recovery">Chinese competition and backlash</a> against CEO Elon Musk&#8216;s political activities.



What Happened: New Tesla registrations in France dropped 36.8%, Sweden fell 63.9%, and Norway slipped 1% compared to March 2024, according to official data. 



Denmark and the Netherlands saw even steeper declines of 65.6% and 61%, respectively, reported Reuters. First-quarter sales were down across all these markets, with quarterly declines ranging from 12.5% in Norway to 55.3% in both Sweden and Denmark.



Musk&#8217;s increasingly visible political activities, including support for far-right parties in Europe and his close alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump, appear to be alienating potential customers. 



This political stance has made Tesla vehicles and showrooms targets for vandalism, with <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44555726/chamath-palihapitiya-claims-tesla-attacks-part-of-organized-effort-against-elon-musks-doge-role">cars burned and dealerships spray-painted</a> in Rome, Berlin, and Stockholm in recent days.



&#8220;We&#8217;re all embarrassed,&#8221; said Luca Del Bo, president of Italy&#8217;s Tesla owners club. &#8220;We&#8217;d all be happy of course if Musk just went back to just being a CEO.&#8221;



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/04/44599257/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-edge-higher-as-market-braces-for-trumps-liberation-day-why-arthur-hayes-still-sees-btc-hitting-250000-by-year-end">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Edge Higher As Market Braces For Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Liberation Day:&#8217; Why Arthur Hayes Still Sees BTC Hitting $250,000 By Year-End</a>



Why It Matters: Analysts expect Tesla to announce disappointing first-quarter global deliveries on Wednesday. Deepwater Asset Management&#8216;s Gene Munster predicts <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44599196/gene-munster-warns-teslas-q1-deliveries-will-be-ugly-expects-june-to-be-worse-before-gradual-recovery">approximately 355,000 deliveries</a>, down about 8% year-over-year and below the analyst consensus of 377,592. Prediction markets on Kalshi give just a 56% probability of Tesla exceeding 350,000 deliveries.



The company&#8217;s European market share has declined, with brands like BYD (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BYDDY#OTC">BYDDY</a>) (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BYDDF#OTC">BYDDF</a>) and other Chinese EV makers gaining ground.



Price Action: Tesla Inc. closed at $268.46 on Tuesday, gaining 3.59% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock edged down 0.14% to $268.08. Year to date, Tesla has fallen 29.22%.



Tesla stock has outperformed rivals Nio Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NIO#NYSE">NIO</a>) and Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>) but trails Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) in short- to long-term price trends, according to Benzinga Edge Stock Ranking. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">Sign up to learn more</a>.



Read Next: 



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44601019/as-uncle-sam-tightens-purse-strings-palantir-is-feeling-the-squeeze">Elon Musk&#8217;s DOGE, Tightening Purse Strings Spell Trouble For Palantir: Here&#8217;s Why The AI Darling Is Facing The Heat</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

BYDDY

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Tesla's European Sales Decline For 3rd Consecutive Month Amid China Competition, CEO Elon Musk's Political Controversies

Leading cryptocurrencies spiked Tuesday ahead of President Donald Trump's tariff rollout on the symbolic "Liberation Day."



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 8:45 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>+2.84%</td><td>$85,045.33</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+3.82%</td><td>$1,893.14</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+3.45%</td><td>$0.1726</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: Bitcoin reclaimed and consolidated in the $85,000 zone, triggering a leg up for other large-cap coins like Ethereum and Dogecoin.



The second-largest cryptocurrency, however, failed to capitalize on the surge, dropping below $1,900 overnight.&nbsp;



Bitcoin's dominance rose further to 61.8%, its highest since February 2021.



Over $256 million was liquidated from the market in the last 24 hours, with short positions accounting for the majority of the losses.



Bitcoin's Open Interest, or the dollars locked in its unsettled futures contracts, rose by 5.25% in the last 24 hours, suggesting an influx of new money into the market.



The Long/Short Ratio was over 1 as of this writing, indicating a higher number of traders positioned bullish on the apex cryptocurrency.



The market remained gripped in "Fear," according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.



Top Gainers (24-Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 8:45 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)</td><td>+13.99%</td><td>$0.5161</td></tr><tr><td>Eos (EOS)</td><td>+12.39%</td><td>$0.6823</td></tr><tr><td>Bonk (BONK)</td><td>+11.05%</td><td>$0.00001257</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.74 trillion, following a spike of 2.48% in the last 24 hours.



Stocks began the new quarter on a high. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.38% to close at 42,001.76. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite gained 0.87%, ending at 17,449.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, retreated narrowly by 0.03% to close at 41,989.96.



Investors parsed <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44588076/us-manufacturing-slips-into-contraction-as-tariff-driven-costs-hit-near-3-year-high">weak manufacturing data</a> for March, as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index fell back into contraction territory after two months of marginal growth.



The market was on tenterhooks ahead of Trump's "Liberation Day," which would see <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44575292/trump-to-target-dirty-15-countries-with-tariffs-which-countries-could-be-included">"reciprocal" </a>tariffs on countries accused of having unfair trade barriers against U.S. goods.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Popular blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant drew attention to the sharp decline in selling pressure by the cohort holding Bitcoin for over a month but less than three months.



"These holders, who form an essential part of short-term investors, appear to show reduced activity in the market after taking profits from their short-term trades of 1-3 months," CryptoQuant said.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Decrease in selling pressure by 1-3 month holders "These holders appear to show reduced activity in the market after taking profits from their short-term trades." – By <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoOnchain?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CryptoOnchain</a> Read more &#x2935;&#xFE0F;<a href="https://t.co/ThyGe7pjPO">https://t.co/ThyGe7pjPO</a> <a href="https://t.co/0minPLfiWM">pic.twitter.com/0minPLfiWM</a>&mdash; CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href="https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1907084785408717268?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, reiterated his $250,000 BTC price target by year-end, citing the Federal Reserve's pivot from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing.



"The Fed will flood the market with dollars," Hayes said in an <a href="https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-bbc">essay</a> published Tuesday.



Photo by CMP_NZ on Shutterstock



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44595027/bitcoin-etfs-see-768-million-outflow-in-march-as-price-slips-crowd-sentiment-turns-cautious">Bitcoin ETFs See $768 Million Outflow In March As Price Slips, Crowd Sentiment Turns Cautious</a></li>
</ul>

$DOGE

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Edge Higher As Market Braces For Trump's 'Liberation Day:' Why Arthur Hayes Still Sees BTC Hitting $250,000 By Year-End

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed almost no change in the overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the &#8220;Extreme Fear&#8221; zone on Tuesday.



U.S. stocks settled mixed on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 closing slightly higher during the session as investors awaited details on the tariff plans expected from the Trump administration on Wednesday.



On Tuesday, a Washington Post report suggested the administration is considering a sweeping 20% tariff on most of the $3 trillion in annual imports.



The S&amp;P 500 declined 5.8% in March, recording its biggest monthly decline since December 2022. The Nasdaq dipped 8.2%, while the Dow tumbled 4.2% last month. For the quarter, the S&amp;P 500 dropped, while the Nasdaq dipped 10.4%. The Dow lost 1.3% during the first three months of the year.



On the economic data front, the ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 49 in March compared to a reading of 50.3 in February, and also missing market estimates of 49.5. U.S. construction spending increased 0.7% month-over-month in February following a revised 0.5% fall in January. The number of job openings fell by 194,000 to 7.568 million in February compared to a revised 7.762 million in the previous month.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a positive note, with consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology stocks recording the biggest gains on Tuesday. However, health care and financial stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.



The Dow Jones closed lower by around 12 points to 41,989.96 on Tuesday. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.38% to 5,633.07, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.87% to 17,449.89 during Tuesday's session.



Investors are awaiting earnings results from UniFirst Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNF#NYSE">UNF</a>), BlackBerry Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BB#NYSE">BB</a>), and RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>) today.



What is CNN Business Fear &amp; Greed Index?



At a current reading of 19.3, the index remained in the &#8220;Extreme Fear&#8221; zone on Tuesday, versus a prior reading of 19.3.



The Fear &amp; Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/04/44584246/wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts-give-their-take-on-3-consumer-stocks-delivering-high-dividend-yields-6">Wall Street&#8217;s Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Consumer Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields</a> </li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock

Earnings

S&P 500 Settles Higher Ahead Of Tariff Day: Greed Index Remains In 'Extreme Fear' Zone

Deepwater Asset Management&#8216;s Gene Munster is bracing for disappointing Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) delivery numbers when the electric vehicle maker reports first-quarter figures on Wednesday, warning investors that the coming months could be even more challenging.



What Happened: &#8220;The March number is likely going to be ugly. The June will likely be worse. Then things begin to slowly improve,&#8221; Munster wrote Tuesday on X, signaling a dramatic reversal for a company that once projected 20-30% growth.



The Tesla bull anticipates first-quarter deliveries around 355,000 units, down approximately 8% year-over-year, significantly below analyst consensus estimates of 377,592. His projection aligns with prediction markets, where Kalshi traders give only a 56% probability of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/25/04/44593138/tesla-q1-deliveries-preview-analysts-forecast-377k-but-kalshi-traders-predict-a-miss">Tesla exceeding 350,000 deliveries</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Final thoughts going into tomorrow's <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24TSLA&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$TSLA</a> numbers. &#x27a1;&#xFE0F; The March number is likely going to be ugly. The June will likely be worse. Then things begin to slowly improve. <a href="https://t.co/UYrHByjVKf">https://t.co/UYrHByjVKf</a>&mdash; Gene Munster (@munster_gene) <a href="https://twitter.com/munster_gene/status/1907171731413819636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



&#8220;I feel 35% less wealthy over the past few months since the Tesla numbers started to come down,&#8221; Munster told CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Closing Bell,&#8221; characterizing 2025 as a &#8220;throwaway year&#8221; for the automaker.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/04/44598279/hillary-clinton-barack-obama-join-bluesky-posts-take-aim-at-elon-musks-efforts-in-wisconsin-here-are-the-top-10-most-followed-accounts">Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama Join Bluesky, Posts Take Aim At Elon Musk&#8217;s Efforts In Wisconsin: Here Are The Top 10 Most Followed Accounts</a>



Why It Matters: Despite the near-term pessimism, Munster maintains his long-term optimism, citing Tesla&#8217;s &#8220;physical AI&#8221; competitive advantage through initiatives like Optimus robots and robotaxis. &#8220;Ultimately, I think investors are going to get behind that,&#8221; he said, noting Tesla&#8217;s $37 billion <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43321103/tesla-q4-earnings-highlights-revenue-miss-eps-miss-ev-updates-automaker-says-2025-will-be-a-seminal-year">cash position provides ample runway</a>.



The anticipated delivery decline comes amid concerns about CEO Elon Musk&#8216;s increasing political involvement affecting brand perception. A recent Benzinga poll revealed 53% of respondents would &#8220;never own a Tesla,&#8221; highlighting potential demand challenges as the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/25/04/44593138/tesla-q1-deliveries-preview-analysts-forecast-377k-but-kalshi-traders-predict-a-miss">company looks toward recovery later this year</a>.



Price Action: Tesla Inc. closed at $268.46 on Tuesday, up 3.59% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped 0.14% to $268.08. Year to date, Tesla&#8217;s stock has declined by 29.22%.



Tesla stock has shown strong momentum compared to rivals Nio Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NIO#NYSE">NIO</a>) and Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>). However, it lags behind Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) in short- to long-term price trends, according to Benzinga Edge Stock Ranking. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">Sign up to learn more</a>.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/25/04/44596034/goldman-warns-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-could-spike-us-fuel-prices">Goldman Warns Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Liberation Day&#8217; Tariffs Could Spike US Fuel Prices</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Gene Munster Warns Tesla's March Delivery Number Will Be 'Ugly' But June Will Be Uglier

Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) is reportedly gearing up to release an over $1,000 version of its smart glasses to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/06/39449125/apple-glass-potential-competitor-to-ray-ban-meta-smart-glasses-may-take-longer-to-develop-report">further challenge</a> Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) AR ambitions.



What Happened: The new version of Meta's smart glasses will come with a built-in screen, hand-gesture controls, and a price tag ranging from $1,000 to $1,400, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/how-meta-s-upcoming-1000-smart-glasses-with-a-screen-will-work">reported</a> Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter.



The device, code-named Hypernova, could feature a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42659936/meta-plans-display-equipped-ray-ban-glasses-by-2025-aiming-to-replace-smartphones">monocular display</a> in the lower-right quadrant of the right lens.



They are expected to offer an immersive AR experience that goes beyond the company's current Ray-Ban Meta Glasses, which start at $299. Last year, it was reported that&nbsp;Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses have become the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41458752/metas-smart-glasses-dominate-ray-ban-stores-ai-features-still-missing">best-selling item in 60%</a> of Ray-Ban stores across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/03/44577187/sam-altman-led-openai-releases-open-weight-ai-model-with-reasoning-capabilities-as-deepseek-and-meta-taste-success">Sam Altman-Led OpenAI Releases Open-Weight AI Model With Reasoning Capabilities As DeepSeek And Meta Taste Success</a>



Why It Matters: Previously, it was reported that Apple might be considering a new <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39747111/apples-vision-pro-struggles-to-find-its-killer-app-to-justify-3-500-price-tag-just-not-quite-hit-the">lightweight glasses design</a> following the lukewarm response to its first-generation mixed reality headset, Vision Pro.



Alphabet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) subsidiary Google is also reportedly in the final stages of negotiations to acquire AdHawk Microsystems Inc. as part of its <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44267530/while-apple-reportedly-mulls-over-ar-glasses-google-bets-big-on-eye-tracking-tech-with-115-million-adhawk-acquisition-report">renewed focus on headsets</a> and smart glasses.



Subscribe to the&nbsp;<a href="https://bztechtrends.beehiiv.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Tech Trends newsletter</a>&nbsp;to get all the latest tech developments delivered to your inbox.



The steep price hike for Meta's new model Hypernova is primarily due to the screen, the report noted.



While giving his review of Vision Pro in February 2024, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg admitted that Apple's headset <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/24/02/37116135/mark-zuckerberg-finally-tries-apples-vision-pro-and-says-metas-quest-3-is-the-better-produc">offers a higher screen resolution</a> than Quest. However, he also expressed surprise at the compromises made in device quality, comfort, and ergonomics to achieve it.



Price Action: Meta stock closed 1.67% higher at $586 on Tuesday. However, year-to-date, the company&#8217;s shares have dropped 2.21%, <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">according to Benzinga Pro</a>.



Image via Shutterstock



Check out more of Benzinga's Consumer Tech coverage by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/consumer-tech" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">following this link</a>.



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<li><a href="https://benzinga.com/25/03/44554189/openai-and-microsoft-back-mcp-standard-in-major-shift-toward-interoperable-ai-agents-that-can-think-click-and-navigate-the-web-but-google-ceo-sundar-pichai-appears-to-be-mulling-over-it-in-shakespearean-fashion-to-mcp-or-not-to-mcp" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">OpenAI And Microsoft Back MCP Standard For Web-Surfing AI Agents; Google's Sundar Pichai Asks A Shakespearean Question</a></li>
</ul>

AAPL

GOOG

Meta Planning To Drop $1,000 Smart Glasses With Hand Gesture Control As It Takes On Apple: Report

With what President Donald Trump is calling "Liberation Day" set for tomorrow, Goldman Sachs is warning that proposed reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration could significantly inflate U.S. refined product prices, while offering only modest support to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities">light crude oil prices.</a>



In a research note published Tuesday, Goldman Sachs commodities analyst Callum Bruce outlined two tariff scenarios and their potential effects on U.S. oil markets.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs In Focus: Oil Exemptions Unclear</h3>



Goldman's economists anticipate a 15% reciprocal tariff across U.S. trading partners, though exclusions could reduce the effective rate to around 9 percentage points. 



At present, the firm does not include oil tariffs in its base-case forecasts, but acknowledges the historical precedent of partial exemptions, such as those applied during the Canadian tariff episode.



Still, the lack of clarity on whether crude oil and refined products will be exempt has prompted Goldman to sketch out potential outcomes—ranging from mild market shifts to significant price disruptions.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Scenario 1: 10% Universal Tariff On Oil Imports</h3>



In this case, Goldman expects that "heavy crude barrels from Canada and Latin America would largely discount and continue to flow," due to both export constraints on Canadian oil and the fact that U.S. refiners are tailored to process heavier grades.



Yet, refined products would see an immediate price impact. 



Bruce estimates that U.S. benchmark margins for gasoline – as tracked by the United States Gasoline Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UGA#NYSE">UGA</a>) – and diesel in New York Harbor could rise by $6 per barrel, particularly on the coasts, where the lack of domestic refining capacity and limited access to discounted imports amplify price pressure.



On crude prices, the impact would be marginal. "No clear boost to domestic U.S. crude oil prices and U.S. production" is expected, Bruce said, given the mismatch between the light oil the U.S. produces and the heavy crude most U.S. refineries require.



Despite the policy shock, light U.S. crude prices like WTI would see limited gains, as the U.S. produces more light sweet crude than its refineries can efficiently process. This structural mismatch reduces the demand pull on domestic producers, capping any significant upside.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Scenario 2: Tariffs Above 10% Drive Global Market Disruptions</h3>



A more aggressive tariff rate could catalyze deeper changes. 



"A larger tariff than 10% on oil U.S. imports may increasingly incentivize heavy oil barrels&#8230;to find new homes outside of the U.S.," the analyst said.



This shift would lead to "significantly higher refined product prices, especially in the U.S.," as the refining system globally becomes constrained by less-than-optimal crude slates.



Goldman estimates a $2-per-barrel widening of light-to-medium crude spreads for each 1 million barrels per day of medium crude replaced by light crude in U.S. refineries. However, most of that adjustment would likely occur via heavy crude discounts, not light sweet premiums.



The firm identifies 1.2 million barrels per day of seaborne heavy crude at risk of redirection, and an additional 1 million barrels per day of Canadian pipeline crude that could be re-exported through the U.S. Gulf Coast—if infrastructure allows.



Despite the looming tariff announcement, Goldman sees little evidence that markets are pricing in oil tariff risks. 



"Current market prices of New York Harbour refined products and Canadian locational crude oil differentials both suggest minimal current risk premia for potential U.S. import tariffs without widespread oil exemptions or oil tariff rate reductions," Bruce said.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44589523/trumps-liberation-day-tariff-plan-could-ignite-global-trade-shakeup-betting-markets-price-in-the-pain">Trump Tariffs Could Ignite Global Trade Shakeup: Betting Markets Price In Pain</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Goldman Warns Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Could Spike US Fuel Prices

First-quarter delivery figures from Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) could be more anticipated than usual, given intense concerns for demand amid boycotts and lower sales reported in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/03/44128646/tesla-sales-drop-in-europe-in-february-some-countries-down-over-40-is-musks-political-push-hurting-ev-company">regions in Europe.</a>



Here's a look at key estimates before Tesla reports first-quarter deliveries this week.



What Happened: President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/25/03/44289061/why-trumps-new-tesla-wont-be-hitting-the-open-road">purchased a Tesla vehicle</a> in the first quarter of 2025. Now, investors and analysts are closely watching for official delivery figures to see how many thousands of customers worldwide also received their Teslas during the quarter.



Consensus estimates from analysts compiled by Tesla are for first-quarter deliveries of 377,592 units, as reported by Teslarati. This figure comprises 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 deliveries of other Tesla models.



Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt recently conducted a <a href="https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1906740457050181944">poll </a>of followers on X for their predictions on how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in the first quarter. Here are the results from over 10,000 X users:



<ul>
<li>Under 350,000: 37.3%</li>



<li>350,000 to 360,000: 31.4%</li>



<li>360,000 to 370,000: 11.9%</li>



<li>More than 370,000: 19.4%</li>
</ul>



The under 350,000 option was the leading vote getter at 37.3% followed by the 350,000 to 360,000 range at 31.4%. In total, 68.7% of respondents see Tesla reporting 360,000 or less deliveries in the first quarter.



Troy Teslike, who predicts Tesla deliveries and production figures, <a href="https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1906829878592524446">shared </a>his final prediction for the quarter on X. Teslike predicts Tesla will have deliveries of 355,000 units in the first quarter.



On the prediction platform Kalshi, users can wager on Tesla's delivery totals by trading in binary markets—each representing a specific delivery range. Traders buy "Yes" or "No" contracts, with each correct prediction paying out $1.



<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXTESLA-25-Q1?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=medium&#038;variant=a&#038;ids=KXTESLA-25-Q1-270000&#038;ids=KXTESLA-25-Q1-310000&#038;ids=KXTESLA-25-Q1-330000" width="488px" height="196px" style="border:0"></iframe>



On Kalshi, the odds of 310,000 deliveries or more and 330,000 deliveries or more have odds of 95% and 94%, respectively. After that,t the odds slide significantly. For 340,000 deliveries, 86% of bettors see this figure as likely to happen, or the equivalent of an 86 cent bet on yes, which would pay out $1 if it is right. For 350,000 deliveries or more, the odds are 56%, paying out a profit of 44 cents on a yes bet of $1 if the company can pass that figure.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/interview/25/03/44539183/exclusive-tesla-protest-organizer-says-elon-musk-seems-to-have-purchased-the-american-government">EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Protest Organizer Says &#8216;Elon Musk Seems To Have Purchased The American Government&#8217;</a>



Why It's Important: Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 386,810 last year. The electric vehicle company is likely to come under that figure to start 2025 and below analyst estimates, which could be in part due to the political push by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. 



The company said it expects its vehicle business to return to growth in 2025, but it could start off on the wrong foot and be counting on a strong second half of the year with catalysts ahead.



Reports of lower-than-expected sales of Tesla vehicles in regions in Europe have likely led to lower estimates. In China, Tesla registrations could be picking up, according to a report from <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-registrations-highest-q1-final-week/">Teslarati</a>.



The week of March 24 through March 30 had 20,700 Tesla vehicles registered in China, the highest reported figure for the quarter, according to reports. The strong delivery figures come after January and February, which had low deliveries before a rebound in late February and early March, helped by the introduction of the new Model Y in the country.



Musk's push into politics has hurt the brand value of Tesla and led to polls showing people are less likely to buy Tesla vehicles in the future. While this could mean weak first-quarter sales, it could become an even bigger storyline into the rest of 2025.



Benzinga <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44360899/exclusive-trumps-tesla-purchase-unlikely-to-boost-sales-as-53-say-never">recently polled readers </a>on if they would buy a Tesla vehicle.



"Donald Trump recently bought a Tesla. How does this affect your view of Tesla?" Benzinga asked.



Here were the results:



<ul>
<li>I will never own a Tesla: 53%</li>



<li>I'm more likely to buy a Tesla:&nbsp;23%</li>



<li>I'm less likely to buy a Tesla: 14%</li>



<li>I already own a Tesla: 10%</li>
</ul>



The poll may have some bad news for Tesla fans and investors with the majority saying they will never own a Tesla vehicle.



The good news is that of undecided non-Tesla owners, 23% said they are more likely to buy a Tesla, while 14% said they are less likely to buy a Tesla on account of Trump's purchase and sales pitch for the EV company.



A low delivery figure reported this week could amplify concerns about the demand for Tesla vehicles and lead to lower shares and analysts cutting their price targets.



TSLA Price Action: Tesla is up 3.7% to $268.82 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 27.5% year-to-date in 2025 and up 56.9% over the last year.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43321103/tesla-q4-earnings-highlights-revenue-miss-eps-miss-ev-updates-automaker-says-2025-will-be-a-seminal-year">Tesla Q4 Earnings Highlights: Revenue Miss, EPS Miss, EV Updates, Automaker Says &#8216;2025 Will Be A Seminal Year&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Previews

Tesla Q1 Deliveries Preview: Analysts Forecast 377K, But Kalshi Traders Predict A Miss

At first glance, the narrative for financial technology platform PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PYPL#NASDAQ">PYPL</a>) appears rather suspect. Consumer sentiment <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44537936/consumer-inflation-expectations-skyrocket-in-march-hit-highest-levels-in-32-years">sank to its lowest reading</a> since November 2022 while inflation expectations skyrocketed, reflecting the dour environment for discretionary spending. Throw in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44101132/tech-sector-hammered-as-trumps-tariff-plans-spark-market-selloff-nvidia-arm-super-micro-lead-tech-bloodbath">tariffs</a> President Donald Trump announced last month and the pessimism only exacerbates.



Nevertheless, it's also fair to point out that because of the subsequent volatility in PayPal stock — which is down almost 23% on a year-to-date basis — the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/pypl/key-statistics">valuation</a> looks more attractive. Currently, PayPal shares trade at 2.13-times trailing-12-month (TTM) sales. However, based on analysts' <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/pypl/analysis">projected</a> fiscal 2025 revenue of $33.06 billion, the security is trading at a multiple of 1.98.



It's worth pointing out that currently, the analysts' <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PYPL/analyst-ratings">rating score</a> for PayPal stock is only 3.1, which is the equivalent of a Hold. However, the latest individual changes were both upgrades issued in December last year. This may indicate a gradual shift in tone.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44593274/trump-gets-fawning-praise-from-pro-cannabis-pac-but-hes-not-returning-the-sentiment">Trump Gets Fawning Praise From Pro-Cannabis PAC But He&#8217;s Not Returning The Sentiment</a>



Fundamentally, the upgrades reflect <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/01/36697045/the-rise-of-buy-now-pay-later-in-2024">booming demand</a> for Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services. According to the Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology, younger consumers — particularly Millennials and Gen Z — have embraced BNPL for their holiday spending.



Put another way, while financial pressures certainly cloud the broader economy, modern consumers are finding ways to adapt. PayPal represents one of the leading brands facilitating this adaptation, making the company&#8217;s stock a counterintuitive prospect.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Smart Money Sweeps Into Stock Options</h2>



Effectively a market within a market, the options arena provides valuable intelligence to retail investors — even if they're not interested in trading these derivative contracts. Since mostly sophisticated market participants utilize options, unusual activity is always worth monitoring. And within this category, sweeps are especially significant.



By definition, sweeps are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/what-options-sweeps">large orders designed to be executed immediately</a>. Further, these orders are split across multiple exchanges simultaneously to access the best available prices. The takeaway with sweeps is that they are market orders, not limit orders. In other words, the emphasis is on urgency and getting into position quickly rather than negotiating for the best entry point.



Notably, the whales appear to be sensing an opportunity with PayPal. For example, on March 27, Benzinga's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/insights/options/25/03/44520821/10-financials-stocks-whale-activity-in-todays-session">options scanner</a> identified net neutral sentiment sweeps for the $78 call. On Monday, the stock saw <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/insights/options/25/03/44569323/spotlight-on-paypal-holdings-analyzing-the-surge-in-options-activity">unusual options activity</a>, particularly for bought $65 calls and sold $64 puts, both for the April 11 expiration date.



Stated simply, institutional players appear to be betting that PayPal&#8217;s stock will rise materially above $65. At the same time, they're also collecting income — through the proceeds of the sold puts — assuming that share prices will not materially fall below $64.



Now, one area of concern is in the statistical realm. Using pricing data from January 2019 onward, PayPal only carries a neutral bias. A long position held for any given eight-week period only has a 49.53% chance of being profitable.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01150442/PYPL-stock-probability-gambit-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-851942" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01150442/PYPL-stock-probability-gambit-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01150442/PYPL-stock-probability-gambit-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01150442/PYPL-stock-probability-gambit-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/01150442/PYPL-stock-probability-gambit.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>



Investors typically shy away from the dips. That's significant because PayPal is currently losing roughly 8% over the trailing five sessions. Still, with the smart money moving in, it's possible that a recovery could materialize.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Tempting Trade On Tap</h2>



In the aforementioned call sweep, the trader (or traders) bought the $65 calls expiring April 11 at a premium (ask) of $1.26. By logical deduction, PYPL stock must reach $66.26 at expiration for this transaction to break even. Of course, nobody trades with the intention of walking away with a draw. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that speculators anticipate that shares will end up higher than the intrinsic breakeven point.



As such, aggressive followers of the smart money may consider the 66/67 bull call spread for the options chain expiring April 11. This transaction involves buying the $66 call (at a time-of-writing ask of $158) and simultaneously selling the $67 call (at a bid of $109). The proceeds from the short call partially offset the debit paid for the long call, resulting in a net cash outlay of $49.



Should the stock hit or exceed the short strike price of $67 at expiration, the maximum reward is the difference between the strike prices (multiplied by 100 shares) minus the cash outlay or $51. This translates to a handsome payout of just over 104%.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/25/04/44593138/tesla-q1-deliveries-preview-analysts-forecast-377k-but-kalshi-traders-predict-a-miss">Tesla Q1 Deliveries Preview: Analysts Forecast 377K, But Kalshi Traders Predict A Miss</a></li>
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Long Ideas

Options

PYPL

Options Corner: PayPal Bulls Are Aiming To Buy Now, Pop Later

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) shares are down 9% over the last month, but WestPark Capital analyst Curtis Shauger sees a buying opportunity in the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/initiation/25/04/44582231/this-amazon-com-analyst-begins-coverage-on-a-bullish-note-here-are-top-5-initiations-for-tuesday"> stock's recent pullback.&nbsp;</a>



Expert Ideas: Shauger initiated coverage on Amazon stock with a Buy rating and $280 price target based on the company's dominance in e-commerce and Amazon Web Services' top position in the "infrastructure as a service" market.&nbsp;



The firm estimates Amazon's general merchandise value to be nearly $1.3 trillion in 2024, nearly four times the size of Shopify's and 13 times the size of Walmart's GMV.&nbsp;



Read Next:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44517885/trump-slaps-25-tariffs-on-autos-what-it-means-for-your-next-car-purchase"> Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Autos: What It Means For Your Next Car Purchase</a>&nbsp;



Shauger also pointed to AWS revenue growth of 20% in 2024 and 36% EBIT margins as top of the class in the IAAS market. WestPark estimates AWS is nearly double the size of Microsoft's Azure and nearly triple the size of Alphabet's Google Cloud Platform.&nbsp;



Amazon's recent pullback offers a "unique opportunity" as the stock now trades at valuation multiples near all-time lows, approximately 12 times EBITDA basis, the analyst said. 



Shauger sees the multiple improving with continued improvement in e-commerce margins, moderation in capital expenditures or an improvement in growth.&nbsp;



The firm's $280 price target is based on a 15 times multiple and an EBITDA estimate of $205 billion.&nbsp;



"We believe AMZN will trade up to the mid point of its recent historical range as the inherent profitability of its model continues to show through," Shauger said.&nbsp;



Read More:&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44575292/trump-to-target-dirty-15-countries-with-tariffs-which-countries-could-be-included">Trump To Target &#8216;Dirty 15&#8217; Countries With Tariffs: Which Countries Could Be Included?</a>&nbsp;</li>
</ul>



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Large Cap

Initiation

AMZN

Amazon Stock's Recent Pullback Offers 'Unique Opportunity': Analyst

The brief revival in U.S. factory activity vanished in March as input prices shot up at the fastest pace since mid-2022, raising red flags about eroding profit margins, cost pass-through risks and strained supply chains as the U.S. economy braces for the impact <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/04/44585626/trump-aides-draft-sweeping-20-tariffs-on-at-least-most-imports-report">of &#8220;reciprocal trade tariffs.&#8221;</a>



On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management revealed its closely watched Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped back into contraction territory after two months of marginal expansions, slipping from 50.3% in February to 49% in March. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Demand Drops, Costs Spike</h3>



The ISM's March data showed a troubling divergence, further bolstering the risk of entering a stagflation environment: while demand indicators weakened, input costs surged.



The Prices Index rose sharply to 69.4% from 62.4% in February, its highest level since June 2022. The acceleration was primarily attributed to increased tariffs, which companies are rushing to circumvent.



"Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth," said Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.



Meanwhile, new orders—a proxy for demand—sank to 45.2% from 48.6%, the lowest reading since August 2024. 



The employment index dropped to 44.7%, the weakest since September 2024, and production fell to 48.3% from 50.7%.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Input Prices Rising This Fast?</h3>



The spike in input costs is largely driven by firms stockpiling inventories to avoid future tariffs. All four components of ISM's inputs measure—prices, supplier deliveries, inventories and imports—registered expansion in March, a rare occurrence when demand is simultaneously falling.



Fiore said inventories are rising not from optimism, but from a "temporary move to avoid tariffs" and are expected to decline once the trade environment stabilizes.



The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.5% from 46.8%, indicating companies are burning through old orders without replenishment. Meanwhile, the Imports Index barely stayed in growth territory at 50.1%, down from 52.6%, reflecting reduced sourcing activity.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Are Businesses Losing Confidence?</h3>



The contraction in ISM's March data contrasts with the slightly more upbeat tone of S&amp;P Global's manufacturing PMI, which was revised up to 50.2 from 49.8, signaling tepid expansion. Yet, beneath the surface, the cracks are also evident in that survey.



"The strong start to the year for U.S. manufacturers has faltered in March," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. He said the early-year boost from improved optimism and tariff-front-running is fading, as production and order books deteriorate.



Williamson noted that "tariffs were the most cited cause of factory input costs rising in March," and the current pace of cost inflation is the highest since August 2022. 



He flagged a sharp deterioration in supply chains, with delivery delays now the worst since October 2022.



"A key concern among manufacturers is the degree to which heightened uncertainty resulting from government policy changes, notably in relation to tariffs, causes customers to cancel or delay spending, and the extent to which costs are rising and supply chains deteriorating in this environment,&#8221; he said.



"Data in the coming months will provide important insights into how the inflationary aspects of policies such as tariffs balance out against any benefits to U.S. producers,&#8221; he added.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>



The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) flipped to losses on Tuesday, down 0.8% by 10:20 a.m. ET. 



The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 – tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) – slipped 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%, weighed down by declines in blue-chip names across healthcare, financials and industrials.



Among mega-cap stocks, Johnson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>) plunged more than 4% after a judge blocked its proposed $10 billion settlement tied to talc-related lawsuits, prompting the company to unwind $7 billion in previously set aside reserves.



In fixed income markets, bond yields fell as demand for Treasuries picked up, reflecting a risk-off shift. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped 8 basis points to 4.1%.



Gold prices inched 0.2% higher, further extending record highs. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was up by 0.5%. 



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US Manufacturing Slips Into Contraction As Tariff-Driven Costs Hit Near 3-Year High

Following the worst quarterly performance for U.S. stocks in over two years, caution dominated Wall Street as investors awaited details on the tariff plans expected from the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">Trump administration on Wednesday.</a>



On Tuesday, a Washington Post report suggested the administration is considering a sweeping 20% tariff on most of the $3 trillion in annual imports.



Survey data showed that goods-producing businesses had been front-loading purchases ahead of the expected tariffs by the end of first quarter, with inventory levels rising and input cost pressures<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44588076/us-manufacturing-slips-into-contraction-as-tariff-driven-costs-hit-near-3-year-high"> hitting a three-year high.</a>



Major indexes showed little movement by midday in New York, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting modest gains.



Notably, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>), and Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>) each jumped around 6% as investors viewed them as potential winners from auto-related tariffs. 



Reports last week highlighted that all three manufacture vehicles entirely in the U.S., giving them a competitive edge over peers like Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) and General Motors Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>).



Treasuries climbed as yields fell, and gold took a breather after hitting a record $3,122 per ounce. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose more than 3% to over $85,000, marking its strongest session in three weeks.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices</td><td>Price</td><td>1-day %chg</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>19,398.82</td><td>0.6%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>5,625.05</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,015.97</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>42,051.95</td><td>0.1 %</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.3% up to $560.83.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) eased 0.1% to $419.37.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.5% to $471.29.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) inched 0.1% higher to 199.82.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) outperformed, up 1.3%; the&nbsp;Health Care&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, down 1.2%.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>



<ul>
<li>Johnson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>) fell over 5%, on track for the worst day since late March 2020. The decline followed a ruling from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, which rejected the proposed prepackaged bankruptcy plan of its subsidiary, Red River Talc.</li>



<li>American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) fell to the lowest level since late August, after Jefferies downgraded the stock from &#8216;Buy&#8217; to &#8216;Hold&#8217; and reduced its price target from $20.00 to $12.00.</li>



<li>IAC Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAC#NASDAQ">IAC</a>) rallied 26.5% after completing the spin-off of Angi Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANGI#NASDAQ">ANGI</a>). </li>
</ul>



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Photo: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

ANGI

Wall Street Inches Up Ahead Of Tariff Day: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

Ed Yardeni, the veteran Wall Street strategist known for his bullish &#8216;Roaring 2020s&#8217; thesis, is dialing back optimism and raising stagflation alarms as a new wave of U.S. tariffs threatens to throttle corporate margins <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">and push inflation higher.</a>



In his latest Yardeni&#8217;s quicktake, the analyst reduced the odds of his Roaring 2020s scenario for the decade from 65% to 55%, while raising the probability of a stagflationary outcome—defined as slowing growth coupled with elevated inflation—to 45%.



That shift, Yardeni said, stems from President Donald Trump's newly announced 25% tariff on imported autos and parts, effective April 3, adding to the burden of earlier tariffs on steel and aluminum. 



The latest tariff salvo—soon to be followed by a likely 20% blanket duty on all imported goods—is expected to raise input costs for businesses across sectors, with consumers likely to face rising prices. 



Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/03/44458099/us-economy-faces-fork-in-the-road-is-yardenis-roaring-2020s-still-possible">US Economy Faces &#8216;Fork In The Road&#8217;: Is Yardeni&#8217;s &#8216;Roaring 2020s&#8217; Still Possible?</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Tariffs Are Fueling Inflation Fears</h3>



Yardeni now sees the 2025 inflation rate, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator – the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – rising to 3.0%-4.0%, up from the prior 2.0%-3.0% estimate.



While supercore inflation—which strips out volatile components like housing—has been trending lower, that progress may stall, according to the expert. 



Durable goods prices, which had been in deflation, are now expected to rise again in the second quarter, while nondurable goods inflation could top 1.5% year-over-year.



"The end of goods deflation combined with sticky and too-high services inflation risk sending inflation expectations—and therefore actual inflation—climbing out of control," Yardeni said.



&#8220;A happy outcome would be that the U.S. would negotiate tariff reductions, but that won&#8217;t happen if the U.S. slaps a 20% tariff on all imports across-the-board just because Peter Navarro has convinced the President that tariffs will bring $6 trillion in revenue over the next 10 years,&#8221; he added.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Profit Margins Under Pressure</h3>



While revenue expectations remain unchanged for now, Yardeni said he's trimming his 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts for the S&amp;P 500 index. 



This year's earnings per share estimate was cut from $275 to $260, and the 2026 projection was lowered from $320 to $300, reflecting &#8220;squeezed profit margins&#8221; from rising costs.



Yardeni's S&amp;P 500 price targets have adjusted accordingly. He now expects the index to land between 5100 and 6000 by year-end, with a modest move higher to 5950–7000 in 2026. 



The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – ended the first quarter of the year with a contraction of 4.6%, notching the worst quarterly performance since mid-2022. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Will The Fed Move? Yardeni Says No</h3>



The Federal Reserve's next steps remain a wild card. Tariffs add complexity to an already delicate balancing act: fighting inflation without crippling growth. 



Some observers fear that unanchored inflation expectations—when households and firms begin acting as if inflation will stay high—could create a self-fulfilling feedback loop.



Yardeni, however, doesn't see the Fed reacting aggressively. He's sticking with a "none-and-done" view for 2025—meaning no further rate cuts. That contrasts with growing market chatter about a potential pivot in response to slowing growth.



Currently, market-based interest rate forecasts – as tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool – are fully pricing in three rate cuts by year end.



&#8220;Inflation expectations is likely to be one of the Federal Reserve's phrases of the year,&#8221; Yardeni said, noting that people's expectations about future inflation are critical to how high inflation actually climbs.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44572838/treasury-bonds-have-lost-50-in-5-years-yet-reversal-signals-emerge-in-q1-could-tariffs-actually-push-tlt-higher">Treasury Bonds Have Lost 50% In 5 Years, Yet Reversal Signals Emerge In Q1: Could Tariffs Actually Push TLT Higher?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Veteran Investor Warns Of Rising Stagflation Risk As Tariffs Loom, Anticipates 'Squeezed Profit Margins' For US Businesses

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