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The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poors 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

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El ETF Vanguard S&amp;P 500 sufre salidas millonarias pese a máximos históricos. ¿Qué está pasando con los inversores?

Salidas récord del ETF Vanguard S&amp;P 500: los inversores retiran fondos en máximos históricos

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Trump pausa aranceles, pero JPMorgan advierte riesgo de recesión. Conoce el impacto en el S&amp;P 500 y las oportunidades globales.

Qué dice JPMorgan sobre la pausa arancelaria de Trump y el futuro del S&amp;P 500

With the S&amp;P 500 trading above 6,200 points and U.S. equities cruising into the July 4 holiday at all-time highs, long-term valuation <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">metrics are sounding alarms. </a>
The so-called Buffett Indicator, a popular long-term valuation tool among traditional investors, has surged to its most extreme reading ever.
Yet, that doesn't mean it's time to panic and dump your stocks overnight.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Is The Buffett Indicator?</h2>
Named after Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, the indicator measures the total value of the U.S. stock market relative to the country's gross domestic product.
It provides a broad snapshot of how inflated equities may be versus the actual size of the economy.
As a legendary investor, Buffett helped popularize the indicator by endorsing it as a key gauge of stock market valuations. In a 2001 interview, he called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
As of July 3, the indicator shows a 207% ratio between the total U.S. stock market value and gross domestic product (GDP), according to the version tracking the Wilshire 5000 index, which covers nearly all publicly traded U.S. equities.
That means the market is worth more than double the size of the U.S. economy. A narrower version focused on the S&amp;P 500 vs. GDP stands at 176%, also hitting new record highs. 
In theory, valuations this rich should precede poor future returns, or even worse, sharp pullbacks.
It might sound worrisome, but here's why that's not the full story.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Buffett Indicator Says Sell, But Timing The Market Top Is A Different Game</h2>
This indicator has been flashing overvaluation for years, and yet markets have continued to rise. 
Since January 2017, the S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) – has gained nearly 170% –&nbsp;excluding dividends –&nbsp;despite the Buffett Indicator staying above 100% almost the entire time. 
Only during brief dips in December 2018 and March 2020 did it temporarily retreat below that mark.
Investors who exited the market based solely on this signal missed a powerful bull run fueled by low interest rates, strong corporate earnings and massive fiscal support.
Most strikingly, since October 2023, the S&amp;P 500's valuation relative to GDP has remained above 125%, yet the index has added an impressive 50% gain in less than two years.
So why does the Buffett Indicator seem to be losing influence? In today&#8217;s market environment, valuation metrics alone haven't been reliable sell signals.
Real interest rates remain historically low, keeping borrowing costs manageable and supporting risk assets. At the same time, persistent fiscal spending continues to inject demand and liquidity into the economy. 
The dominance of large-cap tech companies has led to greater earnings concentration, which in turn fuels stock valuations.
That said, dismissing the Buffett signal entirely could be just as risky. While it hasn't been reliable for short-term market timing, extreme valuations have historically led to longer-term mean reversion, even if it doesn't happen immediately.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: The Market Looks Expensive By Buffett's Standards – But That Hasn't Stopped The Rally Yet</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/03144551/image-48-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-972561" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/03144551/image-48-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/03144551/image-48-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/03144551/image-48-768x397.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/03144551/image-48-1536x794.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/03144551/image-48-2048x1059.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46251714/wall-street-today-stock-market-news-thursday-nvidia">Wall Street Soars To New Highs, Magnificent 7 Top $18 Trillion: What&#8217;s Moving Markets Thursday? </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Photo Agency On Shutterstock.com

Equities

This Indicator Made Warren Buffett Famous — But It's Been Wrong About The Market For Years

U.S. stocks surged to new record highs on Thursday, with Wall Street celebrating stronger-than-expected labor market data ahead <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/07/46244105/june-jobs-report-nonfarm-payroll-adp-data">of the July 4 holiday.</a>
The S&amp;P 500 was eyeing 6,300, while the Nasdaq 100 climbed to 22,860. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rallied, coming close to 44,900 — just shy of its January peak. Small caps joined the rally, with the Russell 2000 up nearly 1%.
Investor sentiment was boosted by June's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs — well above the 110,000 forecast. The data helped ease concerns stoked by a weak private payroll report just a day earlier.
Tech stocks led the charge, with the so-called Magnificent Seven reaching a combined market cap of $18.1 trillion. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) solidified its lead as the world's most valuable company, surpassing a $3.9 trillion valuation, ahead of Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NYSE">MSFT</a>) at $3.7 trillion.
Gains were broad-based across sectors, with only consumer staples slipping 0.1%. Technology and financials outperformed.
In bond markets, Treasury yields rose for a second straight session. The 30-year yield hit 4.85% as the U.S. Senate-passed "One Big Beautiful Bill" advanced to the House.
The upbeat jobs report also lifted the U.S. dollar. The DXY index gained 0.4%, with traders scaling back expectations for a rate cut in July — now pricing in just a 7% chance, down from 25% the day before.
Commodities came under pressure as the dollar strengthened. Gold fell 0.5%, oil slipped 1% and copper declined 1.1%.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) held steady near $109,700.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,867.69</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,281.57</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,864.37</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,244.57</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:50 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.9% to $575.03.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.9% to $448.52.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rallied 1% to $555.99.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 0.9% to $222.99.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 1.5%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, down 0.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Datadog Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DDOG#NASDAQ">DDOG</a>) stock was up 14.92% at $155.15 after news of its upcoming addition to the S&amp;P 500 and a Wedbush price target hike from $140 to $170.</li>
<li>Lennar Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>) fell 4.09% to $110.12 as stronger-than-expected jobs data dampened hopes for Fed rate cuts.</li>
</ul>
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</ul>

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$BTC

DDOG

MSFT

NVDA

Wall Street Soars To New Highs, Magnificent 7 Top $18 Trillion: What's Moving Markets Thursday?

The official U.S. jobs report for June delivered a surprisingly sharp turnaround from the gloom triggered by ADP private payroll data <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/07/46218795/labor-market-payrolls-june-interest-rates">just 24 hours earlier</a>.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, the strongest reading so far in 2025, up from an upwardly revised 144,000 in May and well above economists&#8217; expectations of 110,000. 
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, also beating forecasts for a rise to 4.3%. It marks the lowest unemployment rate since January 2025. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Government Hiring Leads The Way, Private Sector Growth Slows </h3>
The largest surprise came from government hiring, which contributed 73,000 new jobs—the highest since March 2024. State governments added 47,000 positions, mostly in education, while local government education continued to rise with a 23,000-job increase. 
The federal government, however, shed 7,000 positions and remains 69,000 jobs below its January 2025 peak.
Private sector hiring was less impressive, with payrolls rising by 74,000—well below expectations of 105,000 and down from May's upwardly revised 134,000. Still, it avoided contraction and stood in contrast to the ADP report, which had shown a 33,000 decline.
Healthcare remained a steady driver, adding 39,000 jobs in June, close to its 12-month average. 
Hospitals and nursing facilities added 16,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively. Social assistance roles also grew by 19,000, led by individual and family services.
One sign of cooling came from wages. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% on the month, down from 0.4% in May and below the 0.3% expected. Year-over-year wage growth eased from 3.8% to 3.7%, undershooting the 3.9% forecast.
Also released Thursday, weekly unemployment claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending June 28, down 4,000 from the prior week and below the 240,000 expected. Continuing claims were slightly above forecasts at 1.694 million. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h2>
The U.S. dollar jumped after June's stronger-than-expected jobs report, as traders dialed back bets on a July rate cut—just a day after those expectations surged on weak ADP data.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, while gold tumbled over 1% to 3,315 per ounce. Equity futures saw gains, with contracts on the S&amp;P 500 up 0.2% to 6,285 points. 
On Wednesday the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) closed at 570.29 points, setting new record highs. 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46240810/us-stocks-likely-to-open-higher-as-trump-announces-vietnam-trade-deal-sp-500s-golden-cross-reason-to-expect-better-than-average-returns-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Higher As Trump Announces Vietnam Trade Deal: S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Golden Cross &#8216;Reason To Expect Better Than Average Returns,&#8217; Says Expert</a></li>
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Image: Shutterstock

Don't Bury The US Labor Market Just Yet: June Jobs Report Beats Every Forecast

Even as U.S. stocks trade at all-time highs, JPMorgan's new mid-year outlook suggests a quiet storm may be forming under the surface—one that could see gold soar, the dollar weaken, and markets reset in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">second half of 2025.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 May Cool Off—But Not Crash</h3>
In a report shared Tuesday, the investment bank forecasted the S&amp;P 500 — as tracked by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) — to finish the year at 6,000, implying a modest 3.5% pullback from current levels around 6,220.
That would still mark a positive year overall, underpinned by a 12% increase in earnings, with further growth expected in 2026.
"The economy and consumers have shown resilience, and corporates delivered healthy pre-Liberation Day growth of 12% despite the implied aggregate tariff rate surpassing 20%," said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of Global Markets Strategy at JP Morgan.
Yet there are reasons for caution. "We remain open to the economy slowing in the second half of this year at a time when valuation is less supportive," he said, noting that the market may repeat the pattern seen in 2023–2024: narrow leadership and high concentration.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Growth Outlook Trimmed, Inflation Risks Rising</h3>
Inflation is expected to heat up again during the summer months. This could push the Fed's next rate cut to December, according to JPMorgan economists.
"We anticipate this [tariff] shock to generate a broad-based downshift in global growth and a rotation in inflation pressures toward the U.S.," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist. 
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46205961/bitcoin-vs-gold-which-is-better-in-2025">Gold Rarely Beats Bitcoin, But 2025 Could Be Another Blowout Year</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Rally Not Over—Could Hit $4,000 By 2026</h3>
Gold's bullish trend is far from over, with JPMorgan forecasting the metal to average $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 and potentially exceed $4,000 by the second half of 2026.
"For investors, we think gold remains one of the most optimal hedges for the unique combination of stagflation, recession, debasement and U.S. policy risks," said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy.
If JPMorgan&#8217;s gold forecast plays out, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) could climb another 10% by year-end and gain up to 20% more through mid-2026, tracking bullion's surge toward $4,000.
Meanwhile, oil prices are likely to stay subdued due to a growing supply surplus. Kaneva said JPMorgan sees Brent crude trading in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel through the end of the year, barring a severe Middle East escalation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Weaker Dollar Supports EM Currencies</h3>
JPMorgan remains bearish on the U.S. dollar amid shifting global dynamics. "The main anchors of our bearish USD view remain unchanged," said Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy.
Chandan pointed to fading U.S. growth exceptionalism, expensive valuations, and a buildup of liabilities relative to the rest of the world. 
"Several key conditions seem to define the onset of a USD bear cycle&#8230; Plus, past experience indicates that once initiated, dollar bear cycles can persist for a while," she said.
This environment supports emerging market currencies, which are expected to outperform in the second half. 
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Image: Shutterstock

Specialty ETFs

Something Big Is Brewing In Gold, Stocks, And The Dollar: JPMorgan's Half-Year 2025 Outlook

U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 setting fresh record highs after a surprise decline in private payrolls boosted expectations <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/07/46218795/labor-market-payrolls-june-interest-rates">of Federal Reserve rate cuts.</a>
The ADP National Employment Report showed private employers shed 33,000 jobs in June 2025 — the first monthly contraction since March 2023. The sharp miss reinforced market bets that the Fed may ease policy sooner than expected. Economists now expect Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report to show a slowdown from 139,000 to 110,000 jobs.
Rate cut odds rose sharply. Markets now see a 25% chance of a July cut and fully price in a reduction by September. A second cut by December is also fully priced in.
The S&amp;P 500 jumped above 6,200 points, notching new record highs. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8% to 22,650, nearing its all-time peak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average held steady around 44,500. Small-cap stocks outperformed for the second consecutive session.
On the trade front, President Donald Trump announced a new agreement with Vietnam. Under the terms, Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on all exports to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, while granting &#8220;total access&#8221; to U.S. companies seeking to enter its domestic market.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar rose 0.3%, breaking a long losing streak. Treasury yields climbed, with the 30-year yield rising 8 basis points to 4.85%.
Commodities strengthened across the board. Gold rose 0.5%, silver gained 1.2%, and WTI crude oil surged 1.9%.
Crypto markets rallied, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) climbing 3.5% to $109,550.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,216.07</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,650</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,222.44</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,500.39</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.3% to $569.44.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.1% down to $444.43.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;eased 0.7% to $550.61.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 0.9% to $219.94.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 0.9%; the&nbsp;Health Care&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
<li></li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) rallied over 5% after expecting about $14 billion in unrealized gains from Bitcoin in the second quarter. </li>
<li>Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) shares fell 4.1% to $376.11 after Rothschild &amp; Co Redburn downgraded the design software maker from Neutral to Sell and slashed its price target from $420 to $280.</li>
<li>Quantum computing stocks rallied after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with Overweight ratings on Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGTI#NASDAQ">RGTI</a>), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QBTS#NYSE">QBTS</a>), and IonQ Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IONQ#NYSE">IONQ</a>). Shares rose 8.7%, 0.9%, and 2.4%, respectively.</li>
<li>Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>) rose 4.5% despite posting weaker-than-expected earnings, as the company maintained its full-year 2025 guidance.</li>
<li>First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) surged 8% to after RBC Capital Markets said the new U.S.-Vietnam trade deal could positively impact the solar manufacturer. 

</li>
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S&P 500 Tops Record Highs, Bitcoin Rallies As Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets: What's Moving Markets Wednesday?

A Reddit user recently posted a simple question in <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/passive_income/comments/1lkamoo/what_is_that_one_thing_that_gave_you_the/">r/passive_income</a>: "Can someone kindly share the one thing that happened in their life that changed their finances for the rest of their life?"&nbsp;
The post titled, &#8216;What is that one thing that gave you the financial freedom you have today?&#8217; got wide-ranging, honest, and surprisingly relatable responses.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From Military Pensions To Vending Machines</h2>
For some, it was the structure and sacrifice of military life. One person wrote, "I decided to stay in the military till retirement. There are not a lot of jobs anymore that have a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/02/43432805/workers-long-for-the-day-pensions-make-a-comeback-83-say-everyone-deserves-a-pension-not-just-public-employees">guaranteed pension</a>. It was a long haul&#8230; but now I have a pension for life." Others echoed this, calling it "definitely worth it on the back end, minus all the aches and pains."
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Others found their turning point in investing. One person shared: "Getting a side hustle and constantly funneling my earnings into [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (Arca: VOO)] and just letting it compound." Another kept it simple: "I <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/investing-on-a-60000-salary">started investing</a>. Hard."
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Power Of Saving And Self-Discipline</h2>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/08/40465160/think-youre-saving-enough-heres-what-the-top-10-have-saved-for-retirement">Saving consistently</a> showed up as one of the most powerful forces behind financial freedom. One person said they saved 25% of every paycheck since their first job and invested it: "It's now worth over $400K. I still treat it like money I can't touch."
Another shared, "Save and invest as much as you can but still have fun sometimes. Time is the most valuable resource."
Journaling also came up in a surprising way. "I just started a journal about my financial situation," one person said. "From starting out to now, I've moved through two jobs seeing my income go from $60K to over $180K."
Trending: Invest early in CancerVax's breakthrough tech aiming to disrupt a $231B market. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/this-company-may-have-found-a-way-to-treat-cancer-by-tricking-the-bodys-immune-system-and-early-studies-show-some-promise-find-out-how-you-can-invest-in-the-future-of-cancer-treatment">Back a bold new approach to cancer treatment with high-growth potential.</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Taking Unusual Routes</h2>
A few users shared unconventional yet profitable paths. One started arbitrage betting and claimed to have made $120,000 since 2022. Another used their U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-va-loan-rates">loan</a> to buy a duplex, living on one side and renting the other short-term to cover the mortgage.
An entrepreneurial user started a vending machine business with just one machine in a bar. "Fast forward, I've got 75+ machines placed in nightlife spots and it became real income," they wrote.
One of the most unique stories came from someone who seized an opportunity during the pandemic: "I advertised, &#8216;Let me run your errand for only $3.&#8217; Next morning my phone was flooded with messages. Made over $5K."
See Also: GoSun's Breakthrough Rooftop EV Charger Already Has 2,000+ Units Reserved — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/meet-the-company-seeking-to-give-americans-energy-independence-and-learn-how-you-can-become-an-early-investor">Become an Investor in This $41.3M Clean Energy Brand Today</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Seeing Opportunity Everywhere</h2>
Shifting how people think about money was just as important as what they actually did with it. A top commenter explained, "I became financially secure once I changed my mindset and started thinking outside the box." They added that spotting a dryer repairman inspired them: "It was easy to do and can be learned watching a 5-minute YouTube vid. It's in demand, cheap to start, and high margin."
From fixing appliances to investing in cannabis stocks during the hype, the stories reflect different strategies but a similar realization: taking action matters more than waiting for the perfect plan.
Whether it was grinding through hard work or getting lucky once, the biggest lesson from the thread wasn&#8217;t about getting rich fast. It was that usually, there&#8217;s just one habit, decision, or mindset change that ends up making a big difference.
Read Next: Can you guess how many retire with a $5,000,000 nest egg? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/5mil-nest-egg-adv">The percentage may shock you</a>.
Image: Shutterstock

Personal Finance

'What's That One Thing That Got You Financial Freedom You Have Today?' A Simple Question In Passive Income Group Unleashed Unexpected Truths

A mixed trading session took shape Tuesday on Wall Street, as investors rotated out of high-flying tech stocks <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">and into lagging sectors.</a>
By midday in New York, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% to 22,500 points, while small caps in the Russell 2000 jumped 1.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%, reflecting strength in blue-chip and small-cap names. The S&amp;P 500 was flat at 6,200 points.
Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>) fell 4% despite a lack of major news, as investors appeared willing to take some profits following a year-to-date rally of over 70%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Powell Keeps July Rate Cut On the Table</h1>
Speaking at the European Central Bank's symposium in Sintra, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that most officials still expect to cut interest rates later this year. 
Notably, Powell rejected the speculation that a July rate cut is off the table, reaffirming the Fed's data-dependent stance. 
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate approved President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill. 
The U.S. dollar index held steady as the greenback attempted to snap a nine-day losing streak against the euro — the longest stretch of declines since 2003. Treasury yields edged slightly higher, with the 10-year note rising three basis points to 4.26%.
On the sector front, materials outperformed, breaking above their 200-day moving average for the first time in 2025. Technology lagged. 
In industry highlights, solar stocks rallied after the Senate approved a tax-and-spending bill that scrapped a proposed excise tax on renewable energy projects. Upward momentum was seen from Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RUN#NASDAQ">RUN</a>), up 10%; SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEDG#NASDAQ">SEDG</a>), up 9.7% and Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>), up 4%, while the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TAN#NYSE">TAN</a>) surged 5.4%.
Commodities advanced broadly, with gold gaining 1% to $3,340 per ounce and silver rising 0.5% to $36.20. Copper edged up 0.2%, reaching its highest level since late March, while oil climbed 1% to $65.71 a barrel.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) softened 1% to $106,000.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,209.86</td>
<td>+1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,532.74</td>
<td>+1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,203.82</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,530.87</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) edged 0.1% up to $568.25.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.9% to $444.24.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;eased 0.7% to $547.62.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 1.2% to $218.26.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Materials&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) outperformed, up 3%; the&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
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</ul>

Eurozone

Movers

ENPH

PLTR

SEDG

Palantir Stumbles, Solar Stocks Rally As Senate Approves Tax Bill: What's Moving Markets Tuesday?

U.S. equities opened higher on the final trading day of the first half, with tech-heavy indexes extending record highs by midday <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">trading in New York.</a>
Risk appetite remained firm as geopolitical tensions eased and hopes grew that upcoming U.S. trade talks could yield tangible progress. Market sentiment was further supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with Fed futures currently assigning a 93% chance of a rate cut in September.
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed nearly 200 points, breaking above the 44,000 mark.
President Donald Trump signaled openness to extending the July 9 deadline for reinstating reciprocal tariffs, adding that he remained optimistic about reaching key agreements in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Canada's withdrawal of its digital services tax helped improve the outlook for U.S. tech firms and reignited momentum in trade negotiations with Washington.
In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index is set for its fifth consecutive monthly decline, marking its longest losing streak since 2017 and its worst half-year performance since 1991, with a 10.5% drop year-to-date.
Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield dipping to 4.25% and the 30-year yield retreating to 4.80%, snapping a three-month streak of increases.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) slipped 1% to $107,330, consolidating after a strong second-quarter rally of 30%.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/forex/25/06/46175116/weaker-dollar-stocks-beneficiaries-foreign-revenue">Dollar&#8217;s Biggest Crash In Decades: These 7 Stocks Could Win Big</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,668.63</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,027.78</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,196.12</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,173.65</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:40 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.4% to $617.00.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.5% to $440.00.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;soared 0.5% to $550.93.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) inched 0.2% higher $215.86.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 0.8%; the&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) lagged, down 0.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPE#NYSE">HPE</a>) shares jumped 13% after reaching a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over its $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNPR#NYSE">JNPR</a>), pending final court approval.</li>
<li>First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) shares rose 9% to $163 after the U.S. Senate advanced a bill preserving solar leasing tax credits.</li>
<li>Other solar stocks also rallied, with SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEDG#NASDAQ">SEDG</a>), up 5% and SunRun Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RUN#NASDAQ">RUN</a>), up 15%. Read now:</li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46171994/emerging-markets-stocks-dollar-outlook">A Weaker Dollar Just Unlocked A Surprise 2025 Winner — And Smart Money Is Moving In</a> Photo: khunkornStudio via Shutterstock</li>
</ul>

JNPR

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Wall Street Extends Record Highs, Dow Jones Hits 44,000: What's Driving Markets Monday?

A historic inflow streak into the world&#8217;s biggest exchange traded fund has come to a sudden end in June, with the S&amp;P 500 benchmark fund losing billions even as Wall Street <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46163999/us-stocks-likely-to-open-higher-continuing-record-setting-advances-june-has-never-seen-an-all-time-high-since-1950-highlights-expert">celebrated fresh record highs. </a>
The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) saw $5.69 billion in outflows during the month, marking its first monthly net redemption since December 2022 and the second-largest outflow since the fund's launch in 2015.
The redemptions signal a notable divergence between market performance and investor behavior. The S&amp;P 500 reached new all-time highs in late June, yet large swaths of institutional and retail investors opted to take profits and reduce exposure.
Over the three years leading up to June 2025, the VOO ETF attracted $250 billion in inflows, overtaking the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) to become the world's largest ETF.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/30083412/image-437-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-966892" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/30083412/image-437-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/30083412/image-437-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/30083412/image-437-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/30083412/image-437-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/30083412/image-437-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Broad-Based Redemptions Across Some Large-Cap ETFs</h3>
The outflows from Vanguard's S&amp;P 500 ETF were far from an isolated case, as other major large-cap funds also saw significant investor withdrawals.
The Invesco Equal-Weight S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSP#NYSE">RSP</a>) shed $1.6 billion in June, marking its steepest monthly outflow since March 2020. 
Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) posted $1.7 billion in redemptions, its largest since December 2020. 
Even the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (CBOE: MAGS), a relatively new fund focused on mega-cap tech names, saw $102 million in outflows—only the second monthly decline in assets since its debut in November 2023.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Investors Pulling Back Amid Record Highs?</h3>
Veteran Market strategist Ed Yardeni said investor sentiment remains cautious, despite easing geopolitical concerns and progress on trade policy under President Donald Trump.
"Though the stock market is back on record-high ground after a couple of big worries have dissipated, investors remain wary, sentiment readings show," Yardeni said in a note on Monday.
Yardeni highlighted the ceasefire in the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran and improved outlooks regarding Trump&#8217;s proposed trade policies, yet noted that traditional sentiment indicators like the AAII Bull-Bear Ratio and Investor Intelligence surveys remain subdued.
"Stock investors always find something to worry about," Yardeni said. 
In Yardeni's view, the disconnect between price action and sentiment could suggest that a large portion of the current rally is being driven by passive or algorithmic flows, rather than broad-based investor enthusiasm. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Technical Strength vs. Macro Uncertainty</h3>
On the technical front, Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, recently indicated that historical patterns suggest momentum tends to continue after a market reaches new highs.
According to Turnquist&#8217;s analysis, after reaching new highs, the S&amp;P 500 posted average and median 12-month returns of 9.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Notably, 74% of those occurrences led to positive performance over the following year.
Still, Turnquist flagged macro risks that could limit further gains.
 "A lot of good news is arguably priced into the market," he said.
Further upside in equities, Turnquist added, will likely hinge on several variables aligning: upside earnings surprises, lower-than-expected tariff levels, passage of Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" with limited market disruptions, and ideally, a moderation in interest rates on the longer end of the yield curve.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46166058/elon-musk-birthday-trump-tax-bill-economy">Elon Musk&#8217;s Birthday Wish: Kill The Bill Before It Kills The Economy</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

This S&P 500 ETF Saw A 30-Month Buying Spree — Now It's Over

Risk appetite surged at the end of the trading week, with the S&amp;P 500 breaking above 6,190 and the Nasdaq 100 extending all-time highs, as investors responded to easing trade tensions and geopolitical <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">risks with robust buying.</a>
President Donald Trump said the U.S. is in the process of finalizing multiple trade agreements, suggesting that four to five deals are either completed or close to completion ahead of a key July 9 deadline. Sentiment was further lifted after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a new U.S.-China trade accord that includes tariff reductions and safeguards for rare earth imports.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Dow Eyes 44,000 As Blue Chips Shine</h1>
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed steadily near the 44,000 mark, outperforming other major indexes on the back of major gains among blue-chip names.
Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) jumped 18%, marking its best trading day ever, after reporting quarterly earnings that crushed Wall Street expectations. Boeing Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) advanced 4% following a bullish analyst note from RedBurn Atlantic.
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) extended its leadership role in the AI sector and beyond, pushing past a $3.8 trillion market capitalization and reinforcing its position as the world's most valuable company.
GE Aerospace (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>) gained 3.5%, reaching its highest level in 17 years. 
Nearly every S&amp;P sector closed in the green except for energy, which lagged sharply as oil prices headed for their worst weekly drop since March 2023. The easing of military tensions in the Middle East helped pull crude lower, capping a volatile stretch for commodities.
Gold also saw selling pressure, dropping 1.6% to $3,270 per ounce, as traders rotated into risk assets and shrugged off traditional safe havens.
The U.S. dollar extended its losing streak to a seventh straight session, dragging the U.S. Dollar Index to its lowest level since February 2022 — just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The dollar is now on track for its worst first half of a year since 1991, weighed down by dovish Fed expectations and U.S. fiscal uncertainties.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,979.04</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,190.09</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,188.84</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,582.46</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:45 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.7% to $567.88.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 1.2% to $439.25.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.5% higher to $548.91.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 0.7% to $216.94.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) outperformed, up 1.4%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
Read Now:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/46146713/trump-dollar-outlook-tariffs-debt">Trump Presidency Ushers In Dollar&#8217;s Worst Six-Month Slide In 34 Years </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Wall Street Hits Record Highs, Nike Jumps 18%: What's Moving Markets Friday?

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect that the S&amp;P 500 surpassed its previous closing high during intraday trading.
The S&amp;P 500 pushed into record territory on Thursday, topping its previous all-time closing high from February 19, as the U.S. stock market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">continued its rebound.</a>
That's a major comeback considering how things looked just a few months ago.
On April 7, stocks were in a state of panic. Fears over Trump&#8217;s tariffs and a potential recession sparked a steep selloff, with the S&amp;P tumbling 21% from its February highs.
However, since then, the market has rebounded by a stunning 27%, driven by easing trade tensions, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and receding recession fears.
Now, investors are turning their attention to what comes next, and if history is any guide, the rally may just be getting started.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Golden Cross Is Coming: Why It Matters</h2>
The S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) – is close to flashing what traders call a golden cross. 
That's when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average—a sign that momentum is picking up and a new leg higher could be underway.
While it may sound like a niche signal, the golden cross has proven to be a historically reliable indicator of bull markets.
Since World War II, the golden cross signal has appeared 37 times on the S&amp;P 500, and nearly three out of four times, it has led to gains.
A simple strategy of buying the index at the golden cross and selling at the following death cross – when the 50-day crosses below the 200-day average – would have shown: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Average gain per trade: +14.7%</li>
<li>Winning ratio: 73% (27 out of 37 trades ended in profit)</li>
<li>Average trade duration: 565 days</li>
</ul>
The strongest signal on record occurred in 1994, resulting in a remarkable 120.9% gain over a four-year period.
And looking at more recent history—since 1995—the results still shine.
On average, each trade delivered a 15.5% total return, and 10 out of 13 trades were profitable, for a win rate of 77%.
The strongest performance occurred during the 2012–2015 period, with a 51.4% gain, while the briefest and worst-performing signal resulted in a 4.7% loss over just 21 days in early 2016.
Most recently, the 2023–2025 golden-cross trade posted a solid 30.8% gain.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Golden Cross Strategy On The S&amp;P 500</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Date Entry</th>
<th>Date Exit</th>
<th>Length (Days)</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Price at Buy</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Price at Sell</th>
<th>Performance</th>
<th>Annualized Gain</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1998-12-09</td>
<td>1999-11-05</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>1,181.38</td>
<td>1,363.55</td>
<td>+15.42%</td>
<td>+17.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1999-11-12</td>
<td>2000-10-31</td>
<td>355</td>
<td>1,383.04</td>
<td>1,401.18</td>
<td>+1.31%</td>
<td>+1.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2003-05-15</td>
<td>2004-08-19</td>
<td>462</td>
<td>940.47</td>
<td>1,094.99</td>
<td>+16.43%</td>
<td>+12.51%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2004-11-08</td>
<td>2006-07-20</td>
<td>619</td>
<td>1,166.17</td>
<td>1,260.21</td>
<td>+8.06%</td>
<td>+4.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2006-09-13</td>
<td>2007-12-24</td>
<td>467</td>
<td>1,312.33</td>
<td>1,484.55</td>
<td>+13.12%</td>
<td>+9.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009-06-24</td>
<td>2010-07-06</td>
<td>377</td>
<td>896.31</td>
<td>1,028.09</td>
<td>+14.70%</td>
<td>+13.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010-10-25</td>
<td>2011-08-15</td>
<td>294</td>
<td>1,184.74</td>
<td>1,178.86</td>
<td>-0.50%</td>
<td>-0.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012-02-01</td>
<td>2015-08-31</td>
<td>1,308</td>
<td>1,312.45</td>
<td>1,986.73</td>
<td>+51.38%</td>
<td>+13.26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015-12-22</td>
<td>2016-01-12</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>2,023.15</td>
<td>1,927.83</td>
<td>-4.71%</td>
<td>-53.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016-04-26</td>
<td>2018-12-10</td>
<td>958</td>
<td>2,089.84</td>
<td>2,630.86</td>
<td>+25.89%</td>
<td>+9.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019-04-02</td>
<td>2020-03-31</td>
<td>364</td>
<td>2,868.24</td>
<td>2,614.69</td>
<td>-8.84%</td>
<td>-8.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020-07-10</td>
<td>2022-03-15</td>
<td>613</td>
<td>3,152.47</td>
<td>4,188.82</td>
<td>+32.87%</td>
<td>+17.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023-02-03</td>
<td>2025-04-15</td>
<td>802</td>
<td>4,136.69</td>
<td>5,411.99</td>
<td>+30.83%</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>578</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>+15.5%</td>
<td>+6.9%</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView</figcaption></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Will Seasonality Boost US Stocks In July?</h2>
Beyond technicals, calendar gains may also help. Seasonal trends show that late June through the end of July has historically been a strong period for the S&amp;P 500.
Analyzing the S&amp;P 500's performance between June 26 and July 31 – or the nearest trading days – over the past 15 years, Seasonax data reveals an average return of +3.46% during this period, with 14 out of 15 years finishing in the green.
The strongest July stretch came in 2016, when the index gained 8.51%. The only loss occurred in 2014, with a modest decline of 1.36%.
In fact, if you had bought the index around June 26 and held it through July 31 for the last 15 years, you would have made money 14 times out of 15.
The average return during that window? 3.46%.
In 2016 and 2020, the index jumped more than 8%. The only time it dropped was in 2014, and even then, the decline was only 1.36%. Most years didn't see big pullbacks either, meaning the risk has been relatively low during this midsummer stretch.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 Enters Strong Seasonal Window: More Gains To Come?</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Start Date</th>
<th>End Date</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Start Price</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 End Price</th>
<th>Profit (Pts)</th>
<th>% Gain</th>
<th>Max Rise</th>
<th>Max Drawdown</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>28 Jun 2010</td>
<td>02 Aug 2010</td>
<td>1,074.57</td>
<td>1,125.86</td>
<td>+51.29</td>
<td>+4.77%</td>
<td>+4.77%</td>
<td>-4.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27 Jun 2011</td>
<td>01 Aug 2011</td>
<td>1,280.10</td>
<td>1,286.94</td>
<td>+6.84</td>
<td>+0.53%</td>
<td>+5.71%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2012</td>
<td>31 Jul 2012</td>
<td>1,319.99</td>
<td>1,379.32</td>
<td>+59.33</td>
<td>+4.49%</td>
<td>+5.00%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2013</td>
<td>31 Jul 2013</td>
<td>1,603.26</td>
<td>1,685.73</td>
<td>+82.47</td>
<td>+5.14%</td>
<td>+5.76%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2014</td>
<td>31 Jul 2014</td>
<td>1,957.22</td>
<td>1,930.67</td>
<td>-26.55</td>
<td>-1.36%</td>
<td>+1.57%</td>
<td>-1.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2015</td>
<td>31 Jul 2015</td>
<td>2,101.49</td>
<td>2,103.84</td>
<td>+2.35</td>
<td>+0.11%</td>
<td>+1.27%</td>
<td>-2.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27 Jun 2016</td>
<td>01 Aug 2016</td>
<td>2,000.54</td>
<td>2,170.84</td>
<td>+170.30</td>
<td>+8.51%</td>
<td>+8.72%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2017</td>
<td>31 Jul 2017</td>
<td>2,439.07</td>
<td>2,470.30</td>
<td>+31.23</td>
<td>+1.28%</td>
<td>+1.59%</td>
<td>-1.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2018</td>
<td>31 Jul 2018</td>
<td>2,723.06</td>
<td>2,816.29</td>
<td>+93.23</td>
<td>+3.42%</td>
<td>+4.52%</td>
<td>-0.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2019</td>
<td>31 Jul 2019</td>
<td>2,913.78</td>
<td>2,980.38</td>
<td>+66.60</td>
<td>+2.29%</td>
<td>+3.85%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2020</td>
<td>31 Jul 2020</td>
<td>3,009.05</td>
<td>3,271.12</td>
<td>+262.07</td>
<td>+8.71%</td>
<td>+8.87%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28 Jun 2021</td>
<td>02 Aug 2021</td>
<td>4,290.61</td>
<td>4,387.16</td>
<td>+96.55</td>
<td>+2.25%</td>
<td>+3.07%</td>
<td>-0.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27 Jun 2022</td>
<td>01 Aug 2022</td>
<td>3,900.11</td>
<td>4,118.63</td>
<td>+218.52</td>
<td>+5.60%</td>
<td>+5.90%</td>
<td>-2.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2023</td>
<td>31 Jul 2023</td>
<td>4,328.82</td>
<td>4,588.96</td>
<td>+260.14</td>
<td>+6.01%</td>
<td>+6.01%</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26 Jun 2024</td>
<td>31 Jul 2024</td>
<td>5,477.90</td>
<td>5,522.30</td>
<td>+44.40</td>
<td>+0.81%</td>
<td>+3.46%</td>
<td>-1.44%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: Seasonax</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">So, What's the Bottom Line?</h3>
The S&amp;P 500 is breaking records again. A golden cross is forming. And seasonality is in the market's favor. 
Nothing in markets is guaranteed—but history suggests the path ahead could be smoother, and maybe even profitable, for those who stay in.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46096528/nasdaq-100-record-highs-rally-historical-performance">Nasdaq 100 Hits Record Highs After 30% Rally: History Suggests It&#8217;s Not Done Yet</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

News

S&P 500 Trades At Record Highs—And History Says The Best Is Yet To Come (UPDATED)

Wall Street entered full rally mode on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 extending its record-setting climb and the S&amp;P 500 approaching its February peak, as easing geopolitical fears and renewed hopes for a dovish Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Reserve lifted investor sentiment.</a>
By midday in New York, the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.7% to 6,136, just nine points shy of its all-time high of 6,145. The Nasdaq 100 rose another 0.7% to 22,400, marking yet another intraday record.
Meanwhile, small caps surged, with the Russell 2000 jumping 1%, outperforming the broader market.
On the macro front, the first-quarter GDP was revised downward to -0.5% from the previous -0.2% figure, primarily due to a widening goods trade deficit linked to weaker exports. Yet, other data released Thursday painted a more positive picture.
Factory orders in May soared by 16.4% month-over-month to $343.6 billion, marking the biggest increase since July 2014. That followed a revised 6.6% drop in April and smashed market expectations of an 8.5% gain. Weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000 in the week ending June 21, while economists had forecast no change — another sign of labor market resilience.
Currency markets added fuel to the equity rally. The U.S. dollar index fell to 97, its lowest level since February 2022, as traders increasingly bet that the next Fed chair nominee — with a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/piero-cingari">shortlist reportedly down to four or five names</a> — will favor a dovish stance, potentially setting the stage for deeper rate cuts in 2026.
All S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the green, except real estate. Energy stocks outperformed, rebounding after sharp down days as crude oil prices rose 2% to $66 per barrel.
Other commodities — especially metals — also rose, fueled by dollar weakness. Silver rose 1.2%, while palladium and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/46120819/platinum-miners-forecasts-stocks">platinum</a> spiked 6.1% and 4.3%, respectively. Copper rose 2.8% hitting a three-month high, while gold held steady at $3,330 per ounce.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was unchanged at $107,220. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices </td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>% Chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,158.05</td>
<td>+1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,355.44</td>
<td>+0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,403.44</td>
<td>+0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,136.45</td>
<td>+0.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.66% to $563.41.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.8% to $433.26.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;soared 0.7% to $544.72.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 1% to $214.05.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 1.5%; the&nbsp;Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) surged past $155 per share to hit record highs, becoming the world's most valuable company at $3.8 trillion.</li>
<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) slipped 1.1%, even after delivering <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/46121658/micron-impresses-wall-street-with-strong-q3-earnings-continued-strength-in-ai-data-center">stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings</a>.</li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Acuity Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>), up 7.1%; McCormick Company Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>), up 5.2% and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), up 0.8%.</li>
<li>Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) jumped 8%, lifted by rising metal prices, with industry peers Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCCO#NYSE">SCCO</a>), Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALB#NYSE">ALB</a>), and Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) all rallying between 7% and 8%.</li>
<li>Equinix Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQIX#NASDAQ">EQIX</a>) sank 8% after unveiling a long-term growth outlook that underwhelmed investors.</li>
<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) will report earnings after the close. </li>
</ul>
Read Now:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/46120819/platinum-miners-forecasts-stocks">Platinum&#8217;s Biggest Rally In 40 Years: These 6 Mining Stocks Could Be Top Gainers </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

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Stocks Rally To New Highs, Dollar Tumbles To 40-Month Lows: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

Tech stocks climbed to new highs early Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 briefly touching 22,329 points after the opening bell, surpassing its previous <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46096528/nasdaq-100-record-highs-rally-historical-performance">peak from February 19.</a> 
Yet, by midday trading, the rally lost steam, with major indices giving back early gains. By 12:30 p.m. ET, the Nasdaq 100 was trading at 22,234, up 0.2% on the day. Other large-cap benchmarks hovered near the flatline, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.7%, reflecting weakness in small-cap names.
At a NATO meeting in the Netherlands, President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in place and that the United States will continue exerting pressure on Tehran. He clarified that while sanctions remain, Iran is currently allowed to sell oil to China.
Trump also renewed his call for NATO allies to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP, more than double the current 2% guideline, arguing that Europe must carry a larger share of the military burden.
In day two of his testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that evolving trade conditions could influence monetary policy decisions, suggesting that future trade agreements might create room for interest rate cuts—though no timing was provided.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) led chipmaker gains, rising 3.1% and reaching its highest level since early December 2024. The stock is tracking toward its strongest monthly performance since May 2023.
The broader chip sector is also rallying. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) is up 15% month-to-date, on track for its best monthly return since November 2023.
Bond markets were steady, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.31%, showing little reaction to Powell's testimony or geopolitical headlines.
In commodities, oil prices rebounded 2% to $66 per barrel, after falling more than 12% over the previous two sessions. In industry news, Shell plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>) is reportedly in early-stage talks to acquire rival BP plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BP#NYSE">BP</a>), though no formal offer has been made yet.
Gold was unchanged at $3,328 per ounce, while silver gained 0.5% to $36.
In crypto markets, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) advanced 1.2%, trading just above $107,000. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,234.43</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,097.13</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,038.39</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,145.84</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) flattened at $559.54.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.2% lower to $429.91.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;edged 0.2% up to $540.48.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.7% to $212.93.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 0.6%; the&nbsp;Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, down 1.2%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>FedEx Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) fell 2% despite beating earnings estimates as the outlook was less optimistic than expected. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAYX#NASDAQ">PAYX</a>), down 9%, and General Mills Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GIS#NYSE">GIS</a>), down 3.7%. </li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) tumbled 4.5% after new car sales recorded a 27% year-over-year decline in Europe. </li>
<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), the 2025&#8217;s top-performing chipmaker company as of late June, will report earnings after the close. </li>
</ul>
Read now:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/46099022/best-ai-stocks-nvidia-semiconductors-top-performers">The AI Rally Just Flipped—These Stocks Are Now Outgunning Nvidia </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

PAYX

SHEL

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

TSLA

Tech Stocks Notch New Highs As Chipmakers Power The Rally: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

The world&#8217;s biggest hedge funds are making some eyebrow-raising moves and they&#8217;re laser-obsessed with one thing: Big Tech. Based on the most recent 13F filings, institutional investors and hedge funds poured billions into big <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/technology-stocks">tech stocks</a> such as Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Amazon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Tesla (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and Apple (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) during the last quarter. Even <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs themselves</a>, like the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>), experienced big inflows of more than $21 billion.
So what does it all mean for average investors? Two things:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The pros remain highly optimistic about tech.</li>
<li>By investing in the right ETFs, individual investors can achieve similar exposure without the hedge fund-sized balance sheet.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Follow The Smart Money</h2>
While the headlines tend to flow to the likes of BlackRock, Vanguard or Millennium Management, individual investors have access to the same mega-cap tech surge through ETFs. 
Here&#8217;s a rundown of some of those top stocks against recent fund inflows:
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Stock</th>
<th>Top Hedge Fund Buyers</th>
<th>Total Value Bought</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Microsoft</td>
<td>Geode, Vanguard, BlackRock</td>
<td>$23.49B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon </td>
<td>BlackRock, Vanguard, Arrowstreet</td>
<td>$17.75B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apple </td>
<td>BlackRock, Geode, Vanguard</td>
<td>$15.77B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia </td>
<td>Vanguard, Geode, BlackRock</td>
<td>$14.91B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alphabet </td>
<td>Vanguard, BlackRock, Geode</td>
<td>$12.97B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Meta Platforms </td>
<td>BlackRock, Viking Global</td>
<td>$12.17B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla</td>
<td>Capstone Investment, Vanguard, BlackRock</td>
<td>$10.12B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: HedgeFollow</figcaption></figure>
 In the meantime, IVV, an S&amp;P 500 exchange-traded fund, was one of the largest, gaining more than $21.36 billion with Capula Management and Millennium taking the lead.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs That Follow The Hedge Fund Tech Bounce</h2>
Here are a few ETFs individual investors can look to access the same themes:
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">IVV, VOO, SPY – Timeless S&amp;P 500 Exposure</h3>
Apart from IVV, the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) are filled with the same big-name tech stocks that hedge funds adore. Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>), and Meta (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) comprise the heaviest weightings. Notably, VOO has garnered <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/46060843/vanguard-etfs-lead-2025-with-150-billion-inflows-challenging-wall-streets-old-guard">$82 billion in inflows this year</a> as of May 18, indicating strong demand.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">QQQ, QQQM – Growth-Oriented &amp; Technology-Laden</h3>
Following the Nasdaq-100, Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQM#NASDAQ">QQQM</a>) provide leveraged exposure to the largest names in tech, including the leaders of the AI revolution.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">XLK, VGT &#8211; Technology-Sector Focused </h3>
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) and Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGT#NYSE">VGT</a>). These sector-specific ETFs are best for those seeking a cleaner play in the space. XLK, for example, has more than 40% of its assets in MSFT and AAPL combined.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why The Sprint?</h2>
A number of tailwinds are driving this hedge fund tech wave:
AI Arms Race: Hedge funds are wagering big that the AI revolution is only just beginning.
Earnings Resilience: Big Tech has shown remarkable stability and earnings growth amid rate hikes.
Cloud &amp; Infrastructure Demand: Enterprise spending is ramping back up in areas dominated by Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet.
Even ETFs like IVV, typically seen as broad-market plays, are riding this trend thanks to their tech-heavy weightings.
Hedge funds weren&#8217;t hoarding Big Tech with deep pockets, so retail investors don&#8217;t have to watch from the sidelines. One can create a diversified, tech-heavy portfolio with a few clicks using ETFs, and a lot less cash.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46081799/3-cybersecurity-etfs-go-malware-free-china-gets-bolder">3 Cybersecurity ETFs To Gain Ground As Threats Go Malware-Free, China Gets Bolder</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

QQQM

Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla Among Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Piling Into — Here's How ETFs Like IVV, SPY, VOO Are Riding The Wave

U.S. equities rallied Tuesday morning as investor sentiment improved following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, confirmed by both President Donald Trump and Israeli <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46072859/trump-says-israel-is-not-going-to-attack-iran-after-ceasefire-violation-turn-around-and-head-home">Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu</a>. 
The Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6% to 22,200 by 12:45 p.m. ET, putting its February all-time high of 22,222 within striking distance. 
The tech-heavy index also formed a golden cross—a bullish chart pattern where the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day, often seen as a signal of sustained upward momentum.
All major indexes posted gains of more than 1%. The S&amp;P 500 climbed to 6,100, nearing its record high of 6,147, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced to 43,120.
Oil prices plunged 5% to $64 a barrel, extending Monday's 7.2% drop and echoing the steep two-day declines observed in early April.
Sector performance was broadly positive, with technology and communication services leading the rally. Energy and consumer staples were the only sectors in negative territory.
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) rose 1.8% to a record $247.26. Within the Magnificent Seven, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) surged 2.5%, outpacing peers.
Semiconductor stocks rebounded sharply, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) rallying 3.7%, recovering to levels last seen before the January selloff triggered by DeepSeek-related concerns.
Gold prices fell 1.5% to $3,320 per ounce, as investor demand for safe-haven assets weakened amid reduced geopolitical risk.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) edged up 0.5% to $106,000, following a 4.3% rally on Monday. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>22,199.49</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,160.13</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,117.36</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,095.41</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:45 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 1.2% to $559.39.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 1.2% to $430.75.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rallied 1.5% to $539.43.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) edged up by 1.2% to $214.36.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, up 1.9%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 1.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Carnival plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>) rallied 7% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly results. </li>
<li>Other cruise and travel stocks rose, with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) up 4.5%, Royal Caribbean Cruised Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>), up 2.2% and Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKNG#NASDAQ">BKNG</a>) up 2.8%. </li>
<li>Uber Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UBER#NASDAQ">UBER</a>) rallied over 8% after launching its autonomous ride-hailing service in Atlanta in partnership with Waymo, covering a 65-square-mile area.</li>
<li>Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) soared over 10% after the Senate passed the stablecoin bill. </li>
<li>Shares of defense contractors tumbled following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOC#NYSE">NOC</a>) and RTX Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>) each fell by about 3%. </li>
</ul>
Now Read: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/46077396/powell-interest-rates-trump-inflation-tariffs">Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2025? Powell Says It All Depends On Tariffs </a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

BKNG

COIN

NCLH

UBER

Tech Stocks Eye Record Highs, Crude Drops To $64 On Iran-Israel Truce: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

In a year dominated by ongoing market volatility, increasing geopolitical risks, and a highly unpredictable rate environment, one constant has remained in the investment world: Vanguard&#8217;s dominant presence in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETF space</a>. 
The company has attracted over $150 billion in ETF inflows during the year to date (as of May 18), per FactSet data cited by Etf.com, headed by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), which alone accounted for $82 billion. This figure not only tops all other ETFs industry-wide but also underscores a growing divergence in investor behavior: a decisive shift toward low-cost, rules-based strategies.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/46060008/why-active-fixed-income-etfs-quietly-dominate-in-2025">Why Active Fixed-Income ETFs Quietly Dominate In 2025</a>
As asset managers grapple with fee pressures, intensifying competition, and an increasingly discerning investor base, Vanguard&#8217;s ascent is proving to be a cautionary tale for traditional fund houses.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fee Discipline Meets Market Discipline</h2>
The secret to Vanguard&#8217;s success lies in a framework prioritizing cost minimization and index tracking above tactical play and thematic story. In an environment where returns are increasingly hard to forecast, investors are seeking out funds such as VOO and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>) for their reliability, scale, and economies of scale.
VOO, with a mere 0.03% expense ratio, offers the same underlying index as SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) (with expense ratio of 0.09%) but at a materially lower cost. This compounds over time, especially for long-term investors, and makes Vanguard&#8217;s ETFs a compelling vehicle for buy-and-hold investors.
Outside of VOO, vehicles like VTI, Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VO#NYSE">VO</a>), and Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>) have each attracted billions of new assets. Combined, Vanguard&#8217;s equity ETFs collectively have secured more inflows than some entire ETF families have in total assets managed.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Global Diversification And The Rebalancing Trend</h2>
Though U.S. large-cap equities are still the focal point, Vanguard&#8217;s international and fixed-income ETFs are also coming back into favor. To date, the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VXUS#NASDAQ">VXUS</a>) and Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGK#NYSE">VGK</a>) have attracted $6.6 billion and $5.2 billion, respectively.
In fixed income, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>), the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NASDAQ">VCIT</a>) and the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NASDAQ">BNDX</a>) show increased reallocation into bonds as investors rebalance and position for a changing interest rate cycle.
The inclusion of five non-U.S. equity or bond ETFs in Vanguard&#8217;s top 10 by inflows for 2025 indicates a mature investor base that is increasingly looking to diversify across regions and asset classes.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Structural Advantage In The ETF Arms Race</h2>
Vanguard&#8217;s dominance also reflects structural advantages. While some rival ETFs have more than one share class, Vanguard funds exist under a patented mutual fund–based share class design, which creates more tax efficiency, a feature that has become particularly valuable for taxable accounts and long-term investors.
Meanwhile, rival issuers like BlackRock&#8217;s iShares and State Street&#8217;s SPDRs have had a checkered record in 2025. Even with advances in active ETFs and thematic strategies, a number of these products have failed to keep pace with Vanguard&#8217;s capacity to command sticky, long-duration capital.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Implications For Fund Management</h2>
Vanguard&#8217;s 2025 ETF flows reflect a wider, structural shift towards transforming the future of fund management: 
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Fee compression is a permanent fixture.</li>
<li>Passive investing remains on the rise even as active ETFs increase in count.</li>
<li>Scale, brand credibility, and price leadership increasingly propel asset capture.</li>
</ol>
Legacy asset managers dependent on high-fee products must take away a blunt message: the market no longer compensates for complexity or exclusivity. It is paying for accessibility, transparency, and discipline.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46056666/how-a-strait-of-hormuz-shock-could-ignite-a-surge-in-energy-and-defense-etfs">How A Strait Of Hormuz Shock Could Ignite A Surge In Energy And Defense ETFs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

BNDX

VCIT

VXUS

Vanguard ETFs Lead 2025 With $150 Billion Inflows, Challenging Wall Street's Old Guard

Wall Street showed unexpected resilience Monday as investors looked past a sharp escalation in the Middle East, where Iran fired missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq — just 48 hours after American strikes <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/iran">targeted Iranian nuclear facilities.</a>
According to Axios, citing Israeli officials, Iran launched six ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military presence in the Middle East. Another missile was reportedly fired at a U.S. base in Iraq. 
Despite the rising geopolitical risks, U.S. equity markets held firm. By midday trading in New York, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% to 21,755, the S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% to 5,990, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 0.3% higher to 42,321. Small caps underperformed, with the Russell 2000 down 0.1% to 2,107.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security team at 1 p.m. ET at the White House to assess the evolving threat landscape.
Monday's session defied expectations in energy markets. West Texas Intermediate crude fell over 5% to below $70 a barrel, on track for its worst one-day drop since early April and its lowest level in a week.
Gold rose 0.6% to $3,387 per ounce. The day&#8217;s standout gainer was the U.S. bond market, with yields falling across major maturities. 
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained nearly 1%, surging to levels last seen in May 8. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,755.49</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,988.77</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,321.51</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,107.04</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:20 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.5% to $550.39.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.4% up to $423.40.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.5% to $529.89.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) held steady at $209.28.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) outperformed, up 1.5%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 2.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDS#NYSE">FDS</a>) gained 3.4% despite missing earnings expectations, buoyed by stronger-than-expected forward guidance.</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) said Monday it has terminated its partnership with Hims &amp; Hers Health Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HIMS#NYSE">HIMS</a>) for selling weight-loss drugs, including Wegovy. Shares of Novo fell 6%, while Hims &amp; Hers plunged 33%.</li>
<li>
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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) surged nearly 10% after CEO Elon Musk touted the "successful" weekend rollout of the company's robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas. Read Now:</li>
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Bonds

Treasuries

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Class A Common Stock

HIMS

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Stocks Rise, Oil Tumbles Despite Iran's Strikes On US Bases: What's Driving Markets Monday?

U.S. bonds are on track to log ten straight six-month periods of underperformance relative to stocks, a record-breaking stretch of underperformance since 2020 that&#8217;s rippling through markets and shaking <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/stories-that-matter">up traditional investor portfolios.</a>
The streak spans five years and reflects a regime shift in global markets—one driven by rising interest rates, an overstretched fiscal backdrop, and a tech-driven equity boom.
Yet with geopolitical tensions escalating in Iran, some may wonder whether the prolonged cycle of bond underperformance compared to stocks might finally turn.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46055156/sp500-oil-crisis-performance-iran">War, Oil, And S&amp;P 500: Here&#8217;s How The Stock Market Behaves In Energy Crises</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Market Underperformance</h3>
A way to assess the relative performance of the bond market compared to the stock market is by tracking the ratio between the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>); below is a table showing this dynamic over the past 10 consecutive half-year periods.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Period</th>
<th>TLT/VOO Ratio</th>
<th>TLT Return</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2020 H2</td>
<td>-20.65%</td>
<td>-3.80%</td>
<td>+21.30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021 H1</td>
<td>-20.07%</td>
<td>-8.48%</td>
<td>+14.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021 H2</td>
<td>-7.46%</td>
<td>+2.70%</td>
<td>+10.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 H1</td>
<td>-2.44%</td>
<td>-22.48%</td>
<td>-20.54%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 H2</td>
<td>-14.43%</td>
<td>-13.33%</td>
<td>+1.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 H1</td>
<td>-10.81%</td>
<td>+3.39%</td>
<td>+15.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 H2</td>
<td>-10.44%</td>
<td>-3.94%</td>
<td>+7.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 H1</td>
<td>-18.93%</td>
<td>-7.18%</td>
<td>+14.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 H2</td>
<td>-11.68%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
<td>+7.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 H1 (thru June 23)</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-0.10%</td>
<td>+2.05%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: TLT vs. VOO – A 70% Underperformance Over Five Years</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-958379" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Have Bonds Struggled?</h3>
It all started with the 2020 pandemic recovery, when a "risk-on" mood emerged.
As stimulus measures boosted economic growth, investors fled safe-haven Treasuries and flocked to risk-on assets like equities.
The real damage accelerated in 2022, when the Federal Reserve launched its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades. Bond prices collapsed as yields surged, marking the end of a four-decade bull run fueled by low inflation and near-zero interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis.
Even in the first half of 2022, as the S&amp;P 500 plunged 20.5%, long-duration Treasuries fell even harder—down 22.5%—highlighting how vulnerable bonds had become in a rising-rate environment.
The contrast grew starker in 2023 and 2024, when stocks entered a blistering bull market—posting back-to-back annual gains of 24% and 23%, the strongest two-year stretch since 1998. Bonds, meanwhile, remained under pressure as yields stayed elevated.
Behind the scenes, U.S. fiscal conditions worsened. Since the pandemic, the federal deficit has hovered near 6%-7% of GDP, far above historical norms. In 2025, credit rating agency Moody's stripped the U.S. of its last AAA rating, citing runaway spending and debt accumulation. Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds escalated at or near 5%. 
Adding fuel to the fire, President Donald Trump's sweeping fiscal package has pushed long-term projections deeper into the red. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is expected to add $2.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
Together, these forces have created a toxic mix for bonds: rising rates, sticky inflation, surging deficits and a loss of investor confidence in U.S. fiscal sustainability.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Will War Shift The Bond-Stock Balance?</h3>
With geopolitical risk surging after the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear facility on June 21, investors are asking a key question: Could a major war or energy crisis finally reverse bonds' historic underperformance versus equities?
According to Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America, the relationship between conflict and Treasury yields isn't straightforward. 
"UST yields often don&#8217;t decline with higher geopolitical risks, especially if oil prices are rising," he said in a note shared Monday.
The critical factor, Cabana added, is whether the event materially damages the U.S. economy. 
"Our analysis of prior geopolitical events suggests an inconsistent response of USTs; we conclude that USTs often do not rally amidst geopolitical tensions and the directional move correlates with oil prices."
Bank of America's historical study, which includes major geopolitical flashpoints from the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait onward, found that Treasury yields actually rose about half the time in the month following such events. 
Often, these periods were accompanied by oil price spikes, which fueled inflation concerns and pushed yields higher—not lower.
Put simply, the bond market doesn't behave like a risk-off hedge when oil is surging.
That's why even a significant military escalation in the Middle East may not be enough to snap the bond market's underperformance streak versus equities.
Now Read
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46055156/sp500-oil-crisis-performance-iran">War, Oil, And S&amp;P 500: Here&#8217;s How The Stock Market Behaves In Energy Crises </a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

US Bonds Trailed S&P 500 For 5 Straight Years — Will Iran Shock Snap The Streak?

The U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facility on June 21 has raised the specter of a new oil crisis, reviving investor fears of energy-driven inflation and testing whether the stock market can <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/iran">withstand another geopolitical shock.</a>
Historical precedent offers a guide to how the S&amp;P 500 index responds to energy-driven geopolitical upheaval—and the record shows that outcomes vary sharply depending on the broader economic context.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Did The S&amp;P 500 React To Past Oil Crises?</h3>
In the first major oil shock in October 1973, triggered by the Arab oil embargo, the S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) – plunged 11.3% within a month and was down 41% one year later. 
The second oil shock in January 1978, tied to the start of the Iranian revolution, saw a more minor short-term hit—down 6.2% over a month—but the index recovered 5.3% over 12 months.
During the first Gulf War in August 1990, the S&amp;P 500 fell 9.4% in a month but rebounded 8.6% over the following year. In contrast, the 2003 Iraq invasion saw modest gains of 0.8% in one month and a strong 35% surge over 12 months.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine brought an initial 3.7% gain in the S&amp;P 500, but the index declined 12.4% a year later amid inflation and interest rate concerns.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Crisis Event</th>
<th>Start Date</th>
<th>1-Month S&amp;P 500 Return</th>
<th>12-Month S&amp;P 500 Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>First Oil Shock (Arab oil embargo)</td>
<td>Oct 1973</td>
<td>-11.3%</td>
<td>-41.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Second Oil Shock (Iranian Revolution)</td>
<td>Jan 1978</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>+5.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>First Gulf War</td>
<td>Aug 1990</td>
<td>-9.4%</td>
<td>+8.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Second Gulf War (Iraq Invasion)</td>
<td>Mar 2003</td>
<td>+0.8%</td>
<td>+35.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russia-Ukraine War</td>
<td>Feb 2022</td>
<td>+3.7%</td>
<td>-12.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Real Market Damage May Come After The Oil Shock</h3>
While oil prices tend to surge during geopolitical shocks, history shows that the stock market pain often arrives later, when elevated energy costs start fueling inflation and central banks are forced to act by raising interest rates, thus reducing economic growth.
Prices peaked in January 1974 in the wake of the 1973 oil shock. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March of that year.
As borrowing costs rose, the S&amp;P 500 extended its decline, falling another 25% until it bottomed in October 1974. The oil shock initially triggered volatility, but the real equity damage came after monetary tightening.
A similar pattern followed the 1979 oil crisis. Oil peaked in May 1980, then fell 30% over the next three years. 
However, the S&amp;P 500 didn't bottom until July 1982, after falling 25% between November 1980 and mid-1982. This period coincided with Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raising interest rates to a record 20%, keeping them in double-digit territory until August 1982 to crush inflation.
The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war followed the same blueprint. Oil surged to $130 per barrel in March, then slid to $80 by October. The S&amp;P 500 suffered a 20% drawdown from March to October 2022 as the Federal Reserve began lifting interest rates, then accelerated the pace of hikes through the summer.
These episodes reveal a consistent pattern: initial oil shocks may trigger a knee-jerk reaction in markets, but the most damaging effects emerge as inflation lingers, central banks raise rates, and growth weakens.
Bottom line, oil spikes alone don't always sink equities.
But when prices stay high for months, the inflationary pressure builds, forcing central banks like the Federal Reserve to respond with tighter monetary policy.
That's when the real trouble begins.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46051051/oil-prices-iran-strait-of-hormuz-risk-us-attack">Oil At $110? Goldman Flags Major Risk If Iran Disrupts Strait Of Hormuz Shipping </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Mohamad Reza Jamei/Shutterstock

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