iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

Últimas noticias sobre iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the Underlying Index), which measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years. As of February 29, 2024, there were 40 issues in the Underlying Index. The Underlying Index consists of publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have dollar 300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed). In addition, the securities in the Underlying Index must be fixed rate and denominated in U.S. dollars. Excluded from the Underlying Index are inflation-linked securities, Treasury bills, cash management bills, any government agency debt issued with or without a government guarantee and zero-coupon issues that have been stripped from coupon-paying bonds. The Underlying Index is market value weighted, and the securities in the Underlying Index are updated on the last business day of each month.

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Retail investors flooded the market with $4.1 billion in stock purchases during Monday morning&#8217;s selloff, with Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) attracting the largest inflows, according to JPMorgan data.
What Happened: &#8220;Congrats to those &#8216;buying the dip,'&#8221; wrote Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee on X Monday, responding to investor Amit Kukreja, who shared the retail buying figures.
The aggressive purchasing followed Moody&#8217;s decision Friday to strip the U.S. of its final AAA credit rating, citing persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt burdens. The downgrade aligns Moody&#8217;s with Fitch and S&amp;P, marking the first time all three major agencies have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">rated U.S. debt below the top tier</a>.
Tesla captured $675 million in retail inflows while Palantir drew $439 million, according to the data. Single stocks accounted for $2.5 billion of purchases, with exchange-traded funds comprising the remaining $1.5 billion.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/05/45510197/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-rally-as-senate-advances-key-crypto-bill-analyst-says-btc-could-touch-a-fresh-all-time-high-in-coming-days">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Rally As Senate Advances Key Crypto Bill: Analyst Says BTC Could Touch A Fresh All-Time High In Coming Days</a>
Why It Matters: The buying emerged as markets reacted defensively to the U.S. credit downgrade, with the S&amp;P 500 futures falling 1% and the Nasdaq 100 contracts dropping 1.5% in Monday&#8217;s premarket. High-growth tech stocks were hit particularly hard, with PLTR down up to 4.4% and TSLA declining 3.9% during <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">the regular trading session on Monday</a>.
Despite market jitters, many analysts view the rating cut as having <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">a limited long-term impact</a>. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Moody&#8217;s decision &#8220;a lagging indicator&#8221; on CNBC, noting the administration &#8220;inherited a 6.7% deficit-to-GDP ratio&#8221; and is &#8220;determined to bring spending down.&#8221;
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/05/45510198/scott-bessent-says-us-will-continue-trading-with-china-while-strategically-reshoring-semiconductors-steel-and-pharmaceuticals-to-protect-national-security">Scott Bessent Says US Will &#8216;Continue Trading With China&#8217; While Strategically Reshoring Semiconductors, Steel, and Pharmaceuticals To Protect National Security</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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Tom Lee Cheers On 'Buy The Dip' Crowd As Retail Investors Pour $4.1 Billion Into Stocks: Tesla, Palantir Lead Inflows

Investors poured billions into long-dated U.S. Treasury ETFs in the days leading up to Moody's credit rating downgrade—raising fresh doubts over whether that confidence can endure <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45500872/30-year-treasury-yields-hit-5-what-that-means-for-stocks">as debt risks deepen.</a>
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)—the world&#8217;s biggest fixed-income ETF—attracted $2.07 billion in inflows between May 12 and May 16, according to ETFdb.com flow data. This is the largest weekly haul since November 2024 and the second biggest since June 2024.
Other long-duration Treasury ETFs also recorded notable inflows last week:
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>)—which offers triple-leveraged exposure to 20-year Treasury bonds—attracted $470 million, its largest weekly inflow since November 2024, signaling a surge in leveraged bullish bets on long-term rates.
Meanwhile, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) pulled in $32.8 million, marking its strongest week of inflows since January 2025.
The timing is notable: the surge in demand preceded Friday's Moody's downgrade, which cut the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing chronic deficits, rising debt servicing costs, and a bleak fiscal outlook heading toward deficits near 9% of GDP by 2035, should the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act be extended.
Still, year-to-date long-dated Treasury ETFs have seen more outflows than inflows. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) witnessed $1.2 billion in outflows, positioning 2025 to potentially become the first year of net withdrawals since 2020. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariff Truce Sparked Optimism, Reduced Recession Odds </h3>
Part of the inflows into long-dated Treasuries may have been fueled by a major U.S.-China trade breakthrough, with both sides agreeing to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points—a move that sparked a rally in risk assets and lowered perceived recession risks.
Last week's economic tone was notably risk-on – bolstered by two cooler-than-expected inflation reports – and investors, anticipating stability in interest rates and soft-landing potential, re-entered duration trades in Treasury markets. Long bonds typically perform well when growth fears ease and the market sees room for rate cuts.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Moody's Downgrade Adds Tension—But No Panic</h3>
Despite the downgrade, the market response was measured on Monday. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly spiked above 5% on Monday before falling back to 4.92% as demand resurfaced.
The TLT ETF inched 0.3% lower, signaling that while sentiment slightly weakened, there was no panic selling.
"Friday&#8217;s U.S. sovereign downgrade by Moody&#8217;s is unlikely to result in forced selling but may worsen UST sentiment," said Bank of America analyst Mark Cabana in a note.
Yet, several analysts across Wall Street have largely downplayed the immediate impact of the downgrade. 
Further, regulatory frameworks—such as the Basel III capital standards—continue to treat U.S. Treasuries rated AAA to AA- as risk-free for capital requirement purposes. 
This means banks and institutional investors face no changes in how they treat U.S. government bonds, reinforcing the structural role Treasuries play as collateral and liquidity instruments globally.
The appetite for duration remains intact—for now—but whether investors continue pouring in as fiscal risks take center stage remains to be seen.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade? </a></li>
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Investors Piled Into Long-Term Treasury ETFs Ahead Of Moody's Downgrade: Will Confidence Hold?

U.S. stocks trimmed early-session losses by midday Monday, as investors showed limited concern after Moody's downgraded U.S. sovereign credit from Aaa to Aa1, effectively stripping the world's largest economy of its last <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">top-tier credit rating. </a>
The S&amp;P 500 index hovered near Friday's close. A green end to the session would mark the sixth consecutive daily gain. The Nasdaq 100 also traded flat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, and small caps lagged. 
Bond markets initially reacted sharply, with 30-year Treasury yields spiking above 5% following the downgrade. Yet, buying interest emerged during the session, pulling yields back to 4.95%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) still was down 0.6% on the day. 
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) weakened 0.6% to 100.40, reflecting moderate selling pressure on the greenback. Sector performance was muted overall, except for energy, which fell 1.5%. Crude oil slipped 0.4%, while natural gas dropped 6% amid oversupply concerns. 
Gold rose 1% to $3,235 per ounce, supported by safe-haven flows. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rallied 2%, climbing above the $105,000 mark.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,824.92</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,456.60</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,965.78</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,102.02</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:05 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade?</a></li>
</ul>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.1% up to $594.91.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.4% to $428.18.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;edged 0.1% higher to $522.01.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.5% to $208.80.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Health Care&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.7%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 1.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) jumped 8%, extending Friday's 6% surge, after several company executives bought shares <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45493652/700m-asset-manager-exits-unitedhealth-stock-says-medicare-advantage-is-facing-a-perfect-storm">during the recent selloff</a>.</li>
<li>New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFE#NASDAQ">NFE</a>) rallied 21%, following a nearly 60% decline last week amid lower-than-expected earnings. </li>
<li>Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVAX#NASDAQ">NVAX</a>) surged 18% after the FDA approved its Nuvaxovid COVID-19 vaccine <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45488265/novavax-wins-limited-fda-nod-for-covid-shot-cleared-only-for-seniors-high-risk-groups-amid-safety-scrutiny">for high-risk individuals</a>, including seniors over 65 and those aged 12–64 with underlying health conditions. Shares of Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>) rose 6.4%.</li>
</ul>
Now Read: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

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Stocks Mixed, Treasury Bonds Slip On Moody's US Downgrade: What's Driving Markets Monday?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-19_08h10_29.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Take More Partial Profits On Tactical Trades</h4>
Consider continuing to take partial profits on tactical trades that were initiated near the April lows.
Out of an abundance of caution, our Protection Band is being raised.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Downgraded</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-us-downgrade-treasury-yields-tlt-mc-05192025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The chart shows Treasuries were almost out of the danger zone marked on the chart.</li>
<li>The chart shows Treasuries have fallen below the danger zone on Moody's downgrading U.S. debt.</li>
<li>The chart shows Treasuries are now in zone 4 (support).</li>
<li>The chart shows Treasuries have not been this low since Fall 2023.</li>
<li>Here is a historical perspective of what happened when Standard &amp; Poor's downgraded U.S. debt in August 2011. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The next trading session S&amp;P 500 fell 6.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.6%.</li>
<li>Over the following weeks, the market experienced heightened volatility with consecutive days with 4+% swings in either direction.</li>
<li>The stock market dropped more than 20%, technically entering a bear market for a short period.</li>
<li>By December 31, 2011, the market ended the year roughly flat.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In our analysis, the impact of the downgrade is likely to be muted and very different from 2011 for the following reasons:   
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Moody's is simply 14 years too late.&nbsp; Based on the data, Moody's should have downgraded U.S. debt in 2011.&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is no new information in Moody's downgrade.</li>
<li>In 2011, the S&amp;P 500 downgrade was a shock.  Now, there is nothing new here.</li>
<li>Stock market bulls are pinning their hopes on President Trump's "big beautiful bill."&nbsp; The House Budget Committee advanced the reconciliation bill.&nbsp; The bill includes both tax cuts and spending cuts and a debt ceiling increase.&nbsp; The House will likely vote later this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The momo crowd is now more powerful than ever.&nbsp; The momo crowd does not do any analysis and does not take risk into account.&nbsp; The momo crowd simply buys every stock market dip on hopium.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In the early trade, true to its pattern, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks, taking advantage of about a 1% dip in the stock market on the downgrade.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should pay attention to the latest University of Michigan data.&nbsp; Here are the key points: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Consumer sentiment fell to 50.8 vs. 55 consensus.&nbsp; As a reference, at the same time last year, the index was at 69.1.</li>
<li>Inflation expectations for the year ahead increased from 6.5% to 7.3%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In our analysis, this particular set of data on consumer sentiment is flawed because it was before President Trump gave China the greatest deal ever.  President Trump's action has reduced consumer anxiety about tariffs in the short term.  </li>
<li>Leading Indicators were released today at 10am ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin has been very volatile after the U.S. downgrade.  The Senate is likely to pass the stablecoin bill.  This will be the first big legislative win for the crypto industry after President Trump's re-election.  
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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14 Years Too Late - U.S. Downgrade Pushes Long Borrowing Costs Over 5%, Senate Likely To Pass Stablecoin Bill

<ul>
<li>UNH</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>BULL</li>
<li>RDDT</li>
<li>GOOGL</li>
<li>PLTR</li>
<li>CORN</li>
<li>TLT</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

BULL

CORN

GOOGL

NVDA

RDDT

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of May 19, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

Moody's Ratings has officially stripped the U.S. of its final AAA credit score — the highest mark of financial credibility — sparking political uproar and media alarm, yet market analysts and economists widely believe it will have limited impact on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">the broader financial system.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Did Moody's Decide About US Credit Rating?</h3>
Moody's cut the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, citing sustained fiscal deficits, rising debt burdens and growing interest costs. 
The agency criticized "successive U.S. administrations and Congress" for failing to implement a credible debt reduction strategy.
This move aligns Moody's with Fitch Ratings, which downgraded the U.S. in August 2023, and S&amp;P Global Ratings, which cut the rating back in 2011. 
For the first time, all three major credit agencies have the U.S. rated below AAA.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-regular"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>S&amp;P</th>
<th>Moody&#8217;s</th>
<th>Fitch</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>AA+</th>
<th>Aa1</th>
<th>AA+</th>
</tr>
</thead>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Do Markets Care This Time?</h3>
"This downgrade won't force anybody to do anything on Monday," said Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. 
He noted that after S&amp;P&#8217;s 2011 downgrade caused market disruption due to contract language requiring AAA-rated collateral, those rules were rewritten. "Now, these contracts reference ‘government securities,' not ratings," he said.
Bianco added, "So technically it didn't even change the US's overall credit rating because it was already split rated AA+. Now it's unanimous AA+. Nothing changed."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Debt Concerns Are Misguided</h3>
Macro analyst Alfonso Peccatiello also challenged the logic behind the downgrade. He indicated that U.S. debt in its own currency is not inherently dangerous. 
"Any government doing deficit spending and issuing bonds in its own currency—like the U.S.—isn't walking into an abyss of doom," Peccatiello said. "It's just choosing to stimulate the economy by printing money for the private sector."
Addressing concerns about the $1 trillion annual interest burden, he said this is simply money being transferred from the government to investors holding Treasury bonds. 
"For every dollar the U.S. pays in interest, there is an investor making that dollar," he said, framing it as a redistribution within the economy, not a red flag of insolvency.
Peccatiello explained that U.S. Treasuries continue functioning as high-quality liquid assets for banks under Basel regulations.
"The downgrade to AA+ wouldn't make any difference," he said, as government bonds rated between AAA and AA- carry the same 0% risk weighting under Basel's framework.
He said rising deficits only become problematic when they cause inflation or resource scarcity—not because of arbitrary credit score thresholds.
According to Peccatiello, long-term bond yields are already pricing in much of the fiscal outlook, making current levels—particularly 30-year Treasuries above 5.25%—increasingly attractive for accumulation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">More Politics Than Panic</h3>
Economist Mohamed El-Erian called the move "historic," but said it was unlikely to shake global markets. 
However, he added that the downgrade "amplifies the conversation about America&#8217;s political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt trajectory."
El-Erian&#8217;s view mirrors market action: U.S. Treasuries remain the most trusted collateral globally, and their deep liquidity shields them from dramatic dislocations.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Political Reactions And The Trump Administration's Position</h3>
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on CNBC, called Moody's decision "a lagging indicator." 
He said, "We inherited a 6.7% deficit-to-GDP ratio, the highest when we weren't in a recession or at war. We are determined to bring spending down."
Bessent added that foreign capital flows remain robust. "Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are pushing more and more money into the U.S., with 10-year investment plans," he said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Shakes On The Downgrade</h3>
Despite widespread commentary downplaying Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt, investors reacted defensively in Monday's premarket, with major equity futures sliding and high-growth tech stocks leading losses.
S&amp;P 500 futures fell 1%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 1.5%, signaling a risk-off tone ahead of the Wall Street open.
Among mega-cap stocks, the worst-hit names in premarket trading:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) declined 2%. </li>
<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) dropped 4.4%.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) declined 3.9%.</li>
<li>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) slipped 2.9%.</li>
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) lost 2.7%.</li>
<li>United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>) fell 2%.</li>
</ul>
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 5%, hitting its highest level since October 2023. The spike in yields reflects investor concerns over the long-term fiscal trajectory and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)—a popular proxy for long-dated U.S. bonds—fell 1.6% in premarket trading, continuing a trend of weakness in duration-sensitive assets.
Now Read:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45489038/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-after-moodys-downgrade-bear-market-isnt-fully-recovered-yet-but-it-is-close-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade: &#8216;Bear Market Isn&#8217;t Fully Recovered Yet, But It Is Close,&#8217; Says Expert</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

AMZN

AVGO

America's Credit Strength Just Got Cut Again: Should You Panic?

While Wall Street&#8217;s mood around solar stocks has generally been cool since President <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> took the oath again, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/george-soros">George Soros</a> is dialing up the wattage.
In a surprise move that bucks the broader sentiment, Soros Fund Management revealed a bold new bet on First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>), scooping up 1.6 million call options. The position, valued at over $202 million, now ranks as the second-largest holding in Soros' $6.7 billion portfolio, according to the firm's first quarter <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1029160/000090266425002391/xslForm13F_X02/primary_doc.xml">13F filing</a>.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44246100/trump-musk-slam-soros-linkedin-founder-hoffmann-over-tesla-boycotts-protests">Trump Joins Musk To Slam Soros, LinkedIn Co-Founder Over Tesla Boycotts, Protests</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Clean Energy Muted, Yet George Soros Is Bullish</h2>
Call options are inherently bullish, and this wager suggests Soros is expecting a serious upside in First Solar shares — even as many investors remain skeptical amid softening demand and policy uncertainty in the clean energy space.
This contrarian bet stands out especially given recent weakness across solar names, with FSLR stock trailing broader indexes and analysts reining in expectations. But Soros, who's never been shy about going against the grain, appears to see something others don't &#8211; perhaps a regulatory tailwind, earnings surprise, or sector re-rating on the horizon.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Other Bets: Long-Term Treasury, Defensive Plays</h2>
It&#8217;s not Soros' only forward-leaning move this quarter. 
The fund also added call positions in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) and continued to push into defensive plays like AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AZN#NASDAQ">AZN</a>) and American Electric Power Company Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEP#NASDAQ">AEP</a>). But First Solar is the crown jewel of first quarter activity &#8211; a new position, sized up fast, and sitting near the top of the portfolio.
Whether it's a signal of a clean energy comeback or just smart macro hedging, Soros' solar call is shining a spotlight on a sector many have left for dead.
And if history is any guide, it's worth asking: What does Soros know that the Street doesn't?
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/hedge-funds/25/05/45447966/ray-dalios-bridgewater-dumps-spy-trims-nvidia-meta-alphabet-bearish-vibes">Ray Dalio&#8217;s Bridgewater Dumps SPY, Trims Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet — Bearish Vibes?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Hedge Funds

FSLR

George Soros Loads Up On First Solar Calls: What Does He Know That Wall Street Doesn't?

JOET

Live On CNBC, Joe Terranova Announces Sold Entire iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Position

The chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump, Stephen Miran, reportedly struggled to reassure major bond and hedge fund investors during a meeting last week.
What Happened: Miran, who also heads the Council of Economic Advisers, met with representatives from top hedge funds and other significant investors at the White House on Friday. The meeting was organized amid a period of heightened market instability caused by Trump&#8217;s tariff policies, according to a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a815323b-ae2b-4586-aec2-39dec35726f0">Financial Times</a> report. The meeting, arranged by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), included representatives from hedge funds Balyasny, Tudor and Kenneth Griffin&#8216;s Citadel, as well as asset managers PGIM and BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>).
Several attendees expressed dissatisfaction with the meeting, describing Miran&#8217;s remarks on tariffs and markets as unclear or insufficient. Some even suggested that Miran was not up to the task. Some called him "incoherent"  while some said, he was &#8220;Out of his depth&#8221;. 
"When you're with an audience that knows a lot, the talking points are taken apart pretty quickly,&#8221; a source told Financial Times. 
However, one individual familiar with the meeting expressed optimism about the administration&#8217;s approach to deregulation and tax cuts. 
Earlier this month in a speech at the Hudson Institute, Miran proposed that countries either accept U.S. tariffs on their exports without retaliating or "write cheques to Treasury that help us finance global public goods" as potential solutions.
SEE ALSO: <a href="https://benzinga.com/news/25/04/45084963/joe-rogan-says-people-dont-realize-how-quickly-things-can-collapse-just-how-los-angeles-fell-apart-the-us-co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Joe Rogan Says People Don&#8217;t Realize How Quickly Things Can Collapse: &#8216;Just How Los Angeles Fell Apart The US Could Fall Apart Too&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: The Trump administration&#8217;s policies have led to significant fluctuations in U.S. equity and debt markets. U.S. government bonds experienced a sharp sell-off following the president&#8217;s announcement of steep tariffs on April 2.
Recently, hedge fund manager Spencer Hakimian <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/45031287/us-companies-earn-6x-more-in-china-than-they-export-heres-why-blowing-up-global-trade-would-be-economic-suicidesays-leading-fund-manager">criticized the ongoing</a> trade and tariff war, describing it as unprecedentedly &#8220;stupid&#8221;. He highlighted that S&amp;P 500 companies generate nearly $1.17 trillion in annual revenue from China. Meanwhile, some investors have managed to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44893887/greenlight-capitals-gold-investments-yield-high-returns-amidst-market-downturn">find success</a> amid the market downturn. Billionaire investor David Einhorn&#8216;s hedge fund, Greenlight Capital, reported an 8.2% return in the first quarter of 2025, significantly outperforming the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s loss of over 4% during the same period.
However, according to most investors, declining long-term bond prices and a weakening dollar indicate that the U.S.&#8217;s status as a safe haven in global markets is facing pressure.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) climbed 2.24% year-to-date, while iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 3% during the same period. 
<ul>
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://benzinga.com/news/25/04/45090231/elon-musk-says-will-come-as-a-surprise-to-most-as-chinas-economy-surpasses-us-and-eu-amid-rising-tariffs-and" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk Says Will Come As A &#8216;Surprise To Most&#8217; As China&#8217;s Economy Surpasses US And EU Amid Rising Tariffs And Growing Recession Fears</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Key Trump Adviser's Attempt To Reassure Investors Amid Market Turmoil Draws Criticism As Some Say He Was 'Out Of His Depth': 'When You're With An Audience That Knows A Lot...'

Live On CNBC, Joe Terranova Announces Increased iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Position

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-04-23_08h09_14.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Walk Back From The Brink</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-trump-walks-back-tesla-earnings-tlt-mc-04232025">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;The chart shows that TLT was staying below zone 3.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent rally in bonds after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally did not even reach the top band of zone 3 before failing.&nbsp; This indicated high stress in the bond market.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds were back in the danger zone ahead of the all important $70B 5 year Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>In our analysis, without President Trump walking back from the brink, there was real danger for the auction today to go poorly and push bonds into zone 4 shown on the chart.</li>
<li>As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve as you knew that the bond market was President Trump's pain point.</li>
<li>President Trump walked back from the brink:
<ul>
<li>President Trump said he did not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell.</li>
<li>President Trump said soothing things about China.</li>
<li>Earlier in the day yesterday, Bessent had laid the groundwork, indicating that the situation with China should de-escalate over time.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Immediately after President Trump's comment about not firing Powell, extremely aggressive buying came in the markets.
<ul>
<li>Stocks sharply rose in the after hours.</li>
<li>Bonds rose.</li>
<li>Oil rose.</li>
<li>Dollar rose.</li>
<li>Yen fell.</li>
<li>Gold fell.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reason the yen and gold fell was because after President Trump's walk back, there is less need for safe havens.</li>
<li>Earlier in the afternoon, prior to President Trump's walk back, as full disclosure, We had given signals to take partial profits on gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Newmont Corporation (NEM).  With the benefit of hindsight, these calls now seem prescient, but only time will tell how good these calls were.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock is very popular among retail investors.  Moves in TSLA stock impact sentiment.  After hours, Tesla reported dismal earnings &#8211; the worst in a long time.  Aggressive buying came into TSLA stock when CEO Elon Musk said he would be spending less time on DOGE and more time on his businesses.  This comment from Musk energized Tesla bulls and added to the positive sentiment in the stock market that had started minutes earlier from President Trump's statement.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment is that India may consider zero tariffs on Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) bikes.  Musk is also thinking of expanding into India.</li>
<li>There was considerable Fed speak yesterday.&nbsp; Normally, we would have shared with you the important points from the Fed speak in this morning's Capsule.&nbsp; However, President Trump's comments have rendered the Fed speak meaningless.</li>
<li>Investors should pay careful attention to the results of the Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book will be released today at 2pm ET.</li>
<li>A 20% staff cut at a big company is draconian.  Yet, this is exactly what the new CEO at Intel Corp (INTC) is doing.  Investors love layoffs.  Unfazed by the misery of those who are laid off, investors are cold hearted.  Investors believe the bigger the layoff the better.   Money is flowing into INTC stock on the news.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment are good earnings from Boeing Co (BA), AT&amp;T Inc (T), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), and SAP SE (SAP).</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing aggressive buying.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

The Real Reason Trump Walked Back From The Brink, Tesla Bulls Energized, Intel Cuts

Fears of the end of the U.S. exceptionalism trade have triggered a rare, simultaneous selloff across stocks, Treasuries and the dollar in recent weeks, as concerns over tariffs and the politicization of the Federal Reserve under President Donald <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Trump continue to mount.</a>
Since Trump's self-declared "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on U.S. trading partners, the market reaction has been swift and broadly negative. U.S. government bonds, traditionally a refuge during equity volatility, have failed to provide a safe haven.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Trump-Powell Tension Behind The Market Unwind</h3>
Market fragility was further exposed by Trump&#8217;s open attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 
First, he wrote last week on Truth Social, "Jerome Powell is always too late and wrong. His termination cannot come fast enough." 
Then, during a press conference with Italy's Giorgia Meloni, he pushed the issue further: "If I want him out. He&#8217;ll be out of there real fast. Believe me."
Confirmation from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett that the administration is "considering" removing Powell before his term ends in 2026, also added fuel to the fire.
On Monday, the Trump-Powell drama escalated again, sending shockwaves across currency markets, where central bank independence is viewed as a cornerstone of stability.
Trump posted on Truth Social, pushing for "preemptive" interest rate cuts. He wrote that with energy costs and food prices falling — sarcastically referencing Biden's "egg disaster" — inflation was virtually gone. The president warned of a slowing economy unless Powell, whom he labeled a "major loser," acted immediately.
He further accused Powell of political bias during the previous election cycle, claiming the Fed Chair only cut rates to help former President Joe Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House.
Betting markets currently assign a 23% chance on Powell no longer serving as Fed Chair by the end of the year. 
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/LEAVEPOWELL-25/markets/LEAVEPOWELL-25-DEC31?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Triple Threat: Stocks, Bonds, Dollar All Down</h3>
The market has responded decisively. Since April 2, 2025:
<ul>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has dropped more than 6%</li>
<li>The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), tracking the dollar index, has fallen 5.8%</li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) has tumbled over 8%</li>
</ul>
This rare triple selloff challenges a foundational assumption: that Treasuries typically gain when risk assets fall. 
The breakdown of this historical inverse correlation has led many to wonder: Are investors abandoning Treasuries?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What the Official Data Shows, And What It Doesn't</h2>
The latest U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, covering February, doesn&#8217;t show large-scale foreign divestment. 
According to Goldman Sachs, foreign investors actually net purchased long-term U.S. securities in February, including Treasuries, equities and corporate bonds.
Agency securities saw some selling, but overall the data point to continued interest from global buyers—even as market volatility ramps up.
That said, February is now outdated. 
With April&#8217;s turbulence unfolding post-TIC cutoff, the latest exchange-traded fund flows could offer more immediate clues about investor behavior.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Flows Reveal a More Nuanced Picture</h3>
According to data from ETFDB.com through April 18, there's no evidence of broad-based exodus from Treasury ETFs. 
Despite some rotation out of long-duration ETFs like TLT and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDV#NYSE">EDV</a>), short- and mid-duration Treasury ETFs have attracted strong inflows during the month. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name </th>
<th>April Flows</th>
<th>Trend Insight</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF </td>
<td>-$2.85 billion</td>
<td>Outflows have outweighed inflows since September 2024. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF</td>
<td>-$385 million</td>
<td>Worst monthly outflow since data began in 2015</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#NYSE">GOVT</a>)</td>
<td>+$78 million</td>
<td>Modest recovery after March's $2.95 billion outflow</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHY#NASDAQ">SHY</a>)</td>
<td>+$1.2 billion</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEI#NYSE">IEI</a>)</td>
<td>+$897 million</td>
<td>Highest inflows since July 2022</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHV#NASDAQ">SHV</a>)</td>
<td>+$2.94 billion</td>
<td>Best month since February 2023</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>+$230 million</td>
<td>Four straight months of inflows</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGIT#NASDAQ">VGIT</a>)</td>
<td>+$770 million</td>
<td>Strongest inflows since June 2024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGSH#NASDAQ">VGSH</a>)</td>
<td>+$505 million</td>
<td>On pace for fourth straight positive month</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>)</td>
<td>+$3.55 million</td>
<td>Minimal activity; flows remain stagnant since October 2024</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data as of April 18, 2025</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What About China?</h3>
There's also speculation that major foreign holders, especially China, could be reducing exposure to U.S. government debt in retaliation for tariffs. 
Yet, Goldman Sachs analysts see little evidence of that.
They indicated the recent dislocations are "more likely related to position unwinds by levered investors than significant real money (domestic or international) selling," a view also recently expressed by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/scott-bessent">U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent</a> during a Bloomberg interview. 
As Goldman highlighted, the dollar/yuan exchange rate behavior does not support the idea of major Chinese repatriation—
if Beijing were dumping Treasuries, USD/CNY would likely face sharp downward pressure, but the opposite has happened.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">No Sign Of A Treasury Crisis, Yet</h3>
The bottom line: while some repositioning out of longer-dated Treasuries has been repositioned, ETF flows suggest no broad investor flight from the Treasury market.
If anything, there is a tilt toward shorter maturities, likely reflecting a desire to hedge against both rate volatility and political uncertainty.
Until more recent TIC data is available in June, ETF flows remain the best window into investor sentiment and so far, they suggest the panic narrative may be premature.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44886209/if-you-had-bet-on-gold-after-the-1971-nixon-shock-youd-have-beaten-the-sp-500-unless-you-did-this-one-thing">If You Had Bet On Gold After The 1971 Nixon Shock, You&#8217;d Have Beaten The S&amp;P 500 — Unless You Did This One Thing</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

GOVT

iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

iShares Trust Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

VGIT

VGSH

Are Investors Selling US Treasuries As Trump Attacks Powell? Here's What Latest ETF Flows Tell You

When stock market volatility erupts — as it has during global trade tensions, changing Fed policy, and fresh inflationary pressures — the bond market is meant to act as a financial lifeboat. And <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">recently, it ha</a>s. 
The biggest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">Treasury bond ETFs</a>, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), retained their footing and moved higher, reminding investors why bonds remain a cornerstone of portfolio stability.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44772011/gold-miners-go-parabolic-gdx-hits-2012-highs-newmont-soars-9">Gold Miners Go Parabolic: GDX Hits 2012 Highs, Newmont Soars 9%</a>
But it&#8217;s not only old-school buy-and-hold passive strategies that are in favor. Investors increasingly gravitate toward actively managed bond ETFs, wagering that clever managers can ride the rate rollercoaster more effectively than a fixed index.
While active stock pickers again struggled, active bond managers quietly won, writes a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2024.pdf">report </a>by S&amp;P Global&#8217;s SPIVA Scorecard. It discovered that most active bond funds beat their indexed counterparts in 11 of 16 fixed-income categories last year — a striking reversal of the long-standing narrative that active management doesn&#8217;t pay.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury ETFs Take Center Stage</h2>
During the latest round of market upheaval, Treasury bond ETFs attracted billions of dollars in flows as investors flocked to find shelter from the tempest. According to Morningstar:
<ul>
<li>The Bronze-rated iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) attracted $2.6 billion between April 3 and April 7</li>
<li>The shorter-duration SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPTI#NYSE">SPTI</a>) attracted $1.6 billion. </li>
</ul>
Investors preferred low credit-risk vehicles but were still on the fence about the amount of interest rate risk they were willing to endure.
The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) and the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) were also in hot demand. Unlike past bear markets, however, these passive giants were matched by flows into actively managed &#8220;enhanced core&#8221; bond funds — strategies that try to beat the likes of AGG, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/bonds-are-back-in-market-crash-what-investors-are-buying-changed.html">according </a>to CNBC. Active enhanced core funds attracted five times more money than their passive counterparts in the core bond space this year, ETFaction says.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44767888/how-intels-ceo-pick-could-jolt-chip-stocks-and-etfs">How Intel&#8217;s CEO Pick Could Jolt Chip Stocks And ETFs</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Emergence Of Ultrashort ETFs</h2>
Ultrashort bond ETFs were also front and center, serving as cash substitutes during the mayhem. 
According to Morningstar, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIL#NYSE">BIL</a>) received $3.5 billion in inflows from April 3 to 7. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOV#NYSE">SGOV</a>) took in another $1.1 billion. 
With modest yields and little risk, these funds are now the parking lots of choice for investors who want to hold capital without locking it up for a longer duration.
Still, not all parts of the ultrashort segment thrived. Riskier plays like the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JAAA#NYSE">JAAA</a>) — which had tripled in size in just 12 months — saw a reversal of fortune, bleeding over $1 billion recently as investors moved away from higher credit risk, per Morningstar report.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What&#8217;s Next?</h2>
The Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation, while policy confusion hurts the economic outlook. Yet, bond market forces are in transition. Rather than simply going into hiding — they&#8217;re getting more subtle in their approach. Passive ETFs remain in the picture, but the increasing demand for actively managed Treasury and core bond funds represents a new fixed-income era.
As Treasury ETFs provide a sound hedge and active bond managers are justifying their role, the new bond market playbook may not be so passive after all.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/04/44746774/smart-investors-are-watching-these-3-etfs-after-surprise-jobs-data-beat">Smart Investors Are Watching These 3 ETFs After Surprise Jobs Data Beat</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

JAAA

SGOV

SPTI

From Boring To Booming: How Treasury ETFs Are Beating The Bear

Wall Street ended the week on a strong note, with major indices posting their best weekly performance in years, as traders appeared confident that the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war — which led to triple-digit tariff increases on both sides — would be resolved in the near term.
Not even a shocking University of Michigan survey on consumer sentiment — revealing the most pronounced stagflation concerns in decades — nor fears of stress in the Treasury market were enough to curb the surge in dip-buying activity that emerged in the final <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44764554/consumer-sentiment-crashes-to-3-year-lows-as-inflation-expectations-spike-to-1981-highs">day of the week.</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Rallies, Treasury Stress Fades</h1>
The S&amp;P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), closed at 5,363, up 1.8% on the day and 5.7% for the week, marking its best weekly performance since October 2023.
From its lows earlier in the week, the index jumped 11% and now sits just four percentage points below the level it held prior to President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2.
The Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), also rose 1.8% on Friday, bringing weekly gains to 7.5% — its strongest performance since November 2022.
Since Monday's lows, tech stocks have surged 13% and are now about three percentage points below pre-tariff levels.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), rose 1.6%, extending weekly gains to 4.9%, the best week for blue chips since October 2023.
From the week's lows, the Dow has gained about 10%, and it currently trades nearly five percentage points below the level prior to the tariff news.
Materials were the best-performing sector on Friday, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) closing 3.5% higher, buoyed by strong rallies in mining stocks.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) jumped 5.7% on the day and nearly 20% for the week, reaching levels last seen in 2012, as gold prices continued to break record highs.
Tensions in the Treasury market, which had triggered concern in Washington earlier in the day as the 30-year yield hit 5% and the 10-year surpassed 4.5%, eased by the close. The 30-year yield retreated sharply to 4.85%, while the 10-year settled at 4.47%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) ended in the green, up 0.54%.
Oil prices rose 2.1% to $61.50 a barrel, and copper climbed 4.8%, signaling easing fears about global economic conditions.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) also reflected the improved risk sentiment, rising more than 5% to $83,850.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Top 5 Performers</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company Name </th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MPWR#NASDAQ">MPWR</a>)</td>
<td>+9.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>)</td>
<td>+7.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HII#NYSE">HII</a>)</td>
<td>+7.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>)</td>
<td>+6.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAST#NASDAQ">FAST</a>)</td>
<td>+6.42%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Nasdaq 100&#8217;s Top 5 Performers</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company Name </th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>)</td>
<td>+10.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fastenal Co.</td>
<td>+6.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>)</td>
<td>+5.49%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>)</td>
<td>+5.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>)</td>
<td>+4.83%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/25/04/44772209/3-big-brand-stocks-to-lean-on-during-tariff-troubles">3 Big Brand Stocks To Lean On During Tariff Troubles</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/BOY+Suttiphong">Sutthiphong Chandaeng</a> via Shutterstock

Commodities

AMAT

FAST

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

MPWR

MSTR

Stocks Notch Best Week In Years As Dip Buying On Tariff Crisis Gathers Momentum

Back-to-back weaker-than-expected inflation reports are failing to calm the U.S. Treasury market, with bond yields climbing again on Friday and fueling speculation that a policy misalignment may soon <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">force the Fed's hand.</a>
In a Friday report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index, or PPI—a key gauge of wholesale prices—fell 0.4% month-over-month in March, marking the largest decline since 2023. On an annual basis, producer inflation slowed to 2.7%, well below economists' estimates of 3.3% and down from 3.2% in February.
Stripping out volatile food and energy components, core producer prices fell 0.1% in the month and increased 3.3% on an annual basis, again undercutting forecasts.
Some of the sharpest PPI price declines in March included:
<ul>
<li>Eggs for fresh use: -21.3%</li>
<li>Fresh and dry vegetables: -13.0%</li>
<li>Fruits and melons: -12.2%</li>
<li>Gasoline: -11.7%</li>
<li>Diesel fuel: -6.5%</li>
</ul>
The data followed Thursday's cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed slowing price <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/04/44733390/march-inflation-rate-cools-far-more-than-expected-raises-hopes-for-near-term-fed-rate-cuts">pressures at the consumer level. </a>
Despite this cooling inflation backdrop, Treasury yields are rising. The 10-year yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.50%, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.92%, up 5 bps. Both have jumped around 50 basis points this week alone.
The popular 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has fallen 7% since President Donald Trump&#8216;s tariff announcement on April 2. 
"These are numbers you only see in recession," posted the account @FrogNews on X. "With this kind of print, your Fed should be WAY more worried about deflation than inflation."
"Producer price pressures are easing faster than expected — a welcome sign for the Fed and markets hunting for disinflation proof," said Neem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Some analysts see recent tariff-related behaviors distorting the data. Charles V Payne noted that &#8220;tariff talk influenced the tick higher in February CPI and PPI data because demand was pulled forward. So it&#8217;s very curious that such demand faded in March.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Vigilantes Aren&#8217;t Buying The Disinflation Story</h3>
Despite back-to-back disinflationary prints, Treasury yields have surged roughly 50 basis points over the week. That's counterintuitive. Typically, falling inflation would pull yields lower as traders anticipate looser monetary policy.
But the bond market isn't buying it—not yet. 
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, said the bond market reaction "is not overly impressed by the PPI report" and noted that while inflation is easing, market attention has shifted toward policy uncertainty and broader macro risks.
That theory gained traction as PPI components related to goods, especially airfares, posted stark declines. 
Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noted that components that matter most for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – saw a softness, indicating another upcoming benign inflation reading.
PPI Elements That Feed Into PCE:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Airline passenger services</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Portfolio management</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Physician care</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Home health, hospice care</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hospital outpatient care</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hospital inpatient care</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nursing home care</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
The odds of a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's May 7 meeting remain low, with markets assigning just a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, according to CME FedWatch data.
However, the recent turbulence in Treasury markets and growing concerns over the dollar's stability may be early signals pushing the Federal Reserve to step in and ensure market liquidity.
The key question now is whether policymakers will respond to lagging inflation data or turn their attention to looming economic risks and uncertainties tied to trade policy and tariffs.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44760533/jpmorgan-kicks-off-earnings-season-strong-investment-banking-wealth-management-lead-revenue-surge">&#8216;Economy Is Facing Considerable Turbulence:&#8217; JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon Cautions About &#8216;Negatives Of Tariffs And Trade Wars&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Inflation Cools, Yields Continue To Climb: Why Markets Aren't Ruling Out A May Rate Cut

Despite a surprisingly soft inflation report and President Donald Trump&#8216;s temporary trade truce, U.S. Treasury yields rose Thursday, suggesting that bond investors remain skeptical of a near-term Fed pivot and are bracing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for prolonged policy uncertainty.</a>
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose 8 basis points to 4.81%, retracing roughly half of the sharp decline sparked by Trump's unexpected 90-day tariff pause the day before. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield ticked up 3 basis points to 4.35%, signaling persistent investor wariness despite improving macroeconomic signals.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 1.5% at the open.
While falling inflation typically softens yields by boosting rate-cut hopes, bond investors are clearly holding their breath, waiting for a more decisive signal — the so-called &#8220;Fed Put&#8221; — from the central bank.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Cools Sharply, But the Fed Stays Quiet</h3>
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped more than expected in March 2025, reviving hopes that the Federal Reserve might pivot to rate cuts sooner than anticipated. 
Annual inflation fell to 2.4%, the lowest since September 2024, down from 2.8% in February and well below the 2.6% consensus forecast.
Even more striking, monthly inflation contracted by 0.1%, marking the first negative reading since May 2020. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 2.8% year-over-year, its lowest level since March 2021.
Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear he's in no hurry. In his latest remarks, Powell reiterated that the economy remains in a &#8220;good place&#8221; and emphasized patience in adjusting monetary policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Market Vigilantes Are Back</h3>
This cautious stance has left room for the return of what some economists call the &#8220;bond vigilantes&#8221; — investors who push yields higher to impose market discipline when they sense monetary or fiscal authorities are falling behind the curve.
&#8220;Bond investors are the economy&#8217;s bond vigilantes&#8230; if the fiscal and monetary authorities won't regulate the economy, the bond investors will,&#8221; said Ed Yardeni, recalling his now-famous quote first uttered in 1983. 
&#8220;The Trump administration may be playing with liquid nitro,&#8221; Yardeni added, warning of unpredictable consequences if markets lose faith.
According to Yardeni, the Fed Put — a market belief that the Fed will step in during turmoil — might reappear swiftly if financial stress deepens.
Echoing this view, economist Nouriel Roubini framed the current climate as a tense standoff.
&#8220;In this three-way game of chicken between Trump, Powell, and Xi Jinping, Powell did not blink,&#8221; Roubini said. 
&#8220;Instead, market discipline forced Trump to backtrack — not equities alone, but soaring bond yields, widening credit spreads, and fears of a disorderly dollar collapse led to the 90-day tariff pause.&#8221;
Roubini believes that while the pause eases tensions, Trump feels emboldened, and Xi can't afford to lose face. A true de-escalation may only come through backchannel diplomacy, not economic signals alone.
Even Trump admitted on Wednesday: &#8220;I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky… But if you look at it now it&#8217;s beautiful.&#8221;
On Thursday, he announced that a &#8220;Big, Beautiful, Bill&#8221; on tax cuts is on the way.
But bond markets aren't buying it — not yet.
Despite the White House&#8217;s softer rhetoric and a clear disinflationary trend, yields are under upward pressure, hinting that large foreign holders may be offloading long-dated Treasuries to repatriate funds amid global uncertainties.
Adding to the complexity, the U.S. dollar index dropped 1.2% on Thursday, on pace for its lowest close since early October 2024. Since Trump's inauguration in January, the greenback has lost nearly 8%, reflecting investor unease over both trade and fiscal policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Speakers On Deck</h3>
Later today, markets will closely monitor remarks from a slate of Federal Reserve officials, including:
<ul>
<li>Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, at a North American trade and immigration conference.</li>
<li>Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, on monetary policy and the economy.</li>
<li>Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee for her nomination as vice chair for supervision.</li>
<li>Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, in a Q&amp;A with the Economic Club of New York.</li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44731044/jim-cramer-says-pre-market-slide-driven-by-profit-takers-shorts-are-trying-to-figure-whether-to-operate-on-nvidia-avgo-aapl">Jim Cramer Says Pre-Market Slide Driven By Profit-Takers: &#8216;Shorts Are Trying To Figure Whether To Operate On Nvidia, AVGO, AAPL&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Treasury Yields Rise Despite Cooling Inflation Data As 'Bond Vigilantes' Test Fed Resolve

This options trading expert says "We took advantage of the rally to add short exposure, including on Apple (AAPL)." Here's why...<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="582" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-1024x582.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-10182" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-1024x582.jpg 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-300x171.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-768x436.jpg 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Did You Enjoy That Face-Ripping Rally?</h2>
As ZaStocks pointed out on X, it was the second-biggest single day gain in Nasdaq history. The other two happened during bear markets.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Today marked the second largest single day gain in NASDAQ history. The top three spots? 1. 1/3/2001, +14.17% 2. 4/9/2025, +12% 3. 10/13/2008, +11.81% In both other instances, the NASDAQ ended up making a new low.
&mdash; Za (@ZaStocks) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZaStocks/status/1910062009904964049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The first one, on 1/3/2021, happened during the bear market that started in March of 2000, when the dot-com bubble popped. That bear market didn&#8217;t bottom until October 9th, 2002.&nbsp;
The third biggest one-day rally, on 10/13/2008, happened during the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. That one didn&#8217;t bottom out until March 9th, 2009.&nbsp;
Any long-only investor who dived back in after those face-ripping rallies lost a lot of money over the next several months.&nbsp;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What We Did Instead&nbsp;</h2>
We <a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-monster-rally">took advantage of the rally</a> to add short exposure, including on Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>). 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/boQlTVjpHh">https://t.co/boQlTVjpHh</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1910043393482457131?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Did it make sense for Apple shares to rally more than 15% on news of President Trump&#8217;s 90-day pause on tariffs excluding China? 90% of Apple&#8217;s products are still made in China. That rally seemed irrational to us, so we faded it.&nbsp;
We also placed a couple of bullish bets made attractive by the liquidity drought due to the unwinding of the basis trade.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/X2FqTQOzMv">https://t.co/X2FqTQOzMv</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1909873302077649189?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
One of those was a call spread on iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>), and the other was a calendar spread on Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>). 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What To Do Now&nbsp;</h2>
We keep telling you to take advantage of rallies to hedge. You should consider doing so.&nbsp;

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Technicals

Options

Signals

AAPL

Why We're Fading Apple's 15% Rally

JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Wednesday that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have significantly increased the risk of a recession after President Donald Trump's tariff policies <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44710975/wall-streets-american-exceptionalism-trade-falters-as-dollar-stocks-bonds-all-slide">destabilized financial markets. </a>
The Details: During a Fox Business interview, Dimon attributed the growing recession risk to the cascading effects of Trump's trade policies and China's<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44708618/china-retaliates-with-massive-84-tariff-hike-on-us-goods-amid-escalating-trade-war"> retaliatory tariffs</a>. 
JPMorgan economists recently raised their recession probability to 60% and anticipate a 0.3% GDP contraction this year. 
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44695907/elon-musk-calls-trump-trade-advisor-peter-navarro-dumber-than-sack-of-bricks-defends-tesla-as-the-most-american-made-cars">Elon Musk Calls Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navarro &#8216;Dumber Than Sack Of Bricks,&#8217; Defends Tesla As &#8216;Most American-Made Cars&#8217;&nbsp;</a>
When asked if he expects a recession, Dimon replied, "I think that's a likely outcome."&nbsp;
"A 2,000-point Dow decline creates a self-reinforcing cycle – people see losses in retirement accounts and pensions, leading to spending cuts," he said.&nbsp;
The 69-year-old CEO noted that markets are "pricing in uncertainty at both macro and company level." Bond yields are spiking, and initial public offerings, mergers, and acquisitions are stalling amid the volatility. 
Though Dimon acknowledged that markets don't always predict accurately, he said, "This time they're right in pricing macro/micro-level uncertainties and consumer sentiment impacts." He also expects "more credit challenges than people have seen in a long time" due to sticky inflation and widening credit spreads. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) is on the edge of a bear market. It&#8217;s down nearly 20% from its recent peak. 
Bond prices are also falling sharply. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>) is down more than 5% over the past five days. 
"Take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals,&#8221; Dimon urged the Trump administration. &#8220;It could get worse if we don't make progress.&#8221;
It&#8217;s worth noting that Dimon isn't always spot-on with his predictions. In late 2022, he warned that an <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/22/10/29208975/jamie-dimon-warns-of-u-s-recession-in-6-9-months-says-jp-morgan-preparing-for-economic-hurricane" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">economic "hurricane"</a> was coming in mid-2023. It never happened, and Dimon walked back those comments.
"I shouldn&#8217;t ever use the word hurricane, but … there were storm clouds," Dimon <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/01/30358567/i-shouldnt-ever-use-the-word-hurricane-jamie-dimon-says-storm-clouds-remain-but-the-consumer-is-roll" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> in a 2023 interview.
And in an interview with CNBC last year, Dimon said, &#8220;We would be okay&#8221; <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40241448/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-skeptical-of-feds-ability-to-achieve-2-inflation-target-estimates-35-to-40">in a recession</a>. 
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44667862/oil-crashes-to-60-per-barrel-as-recession-fears-grow">Oil Crashes To $60 Per Barrel As Global Recession Fears Grow&nbsp;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Management

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon Warns Recession Now 'Likely Outcome'

Wall Street saw a tentative tech rebound early Wednesday, as investors begin to shrug off escalating U.S.-China trade tensions following <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">a steep market selloff.</a>
After the Trump administration announced a dramatic hike in tariffs on Chinese goods to 104% starting Wednesday, Beijing retaliated with an 84% tariff on American products. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the aggressive trade stance, claiming the impact would ultimately backfire on China.
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social, writing, &#8220;BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!&#8221; 
He encouraged investors by stating, &#8220;this is a great time to buy, DJT,&#8221; likely referring to Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>), rather than the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which has dropped 18% since the tariff news broke.
Yet, broader risk sentiment remains subdued, with investors awaiting either a softer tone from the White House or a signal from the Federal Reserve—though both hopes appear to be fading.
By mid-morning in New York, tech stocks staged a rebound, lifting the Nasdaq 100 by 0.9%. Yet, the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat, while the Russell 2000 continued to underperform.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries were failing to provide their traditional safe-haven support amid heightened uncertainty and volatility.
The 10-year Treasury yield surged 10 basis points to 4.40%, triggering a sharp selloff in medium- and long-dated bonds. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.8%, extending its three-day slide to 6.6%—its worst performance since March 2020.
Gold prices, on the other hand, soared over 3% to $3,075 per ounce, on track for their strongest daily gain since October 2023.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) also advanced, rising 1.4% to $77,289.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,243.25</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>4,980.40</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>37,576.14</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1,744.85</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 11:25 a.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.3% up to $498.23.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.1% up to $376.72.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 1% to $420.50.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.9% to $173.58</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 1.6%; the&nbsp;Utilities&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) lagged, down 1.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Top 5 Performers</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Last</th>
<th>Chg %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>)</td>
<td>38.43</td>
<td>7.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>)</td>
<td>82.60</td>
<td>5.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>)</td>
<td>18.97</td>
<td>4.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>231.56</td>
<td>4.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWKS#NASDAQ">SWKS</a>)</td>
<td>51.35</td>
<td>4.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)</td>
<td>179.89</td>
<td>4.33%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Worst 5 Losers</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Last</th>
<th>Chg %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMY#NYSE">BMY</a>)</td>
<td>50.29</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABBV#NYSE">ABBV</a>)</td>
<td>167.51</td>
<td>-4.64%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARE#NYSE">ARE</a>)</td>
<td>73.55</td>
<td>-4.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>)</td>
<td>33.49</td>
<td>-4.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INCY#NASDAQ">INCY</a>)</td>
<td>54.50</td>
<td>-4.34%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44710975/wall-streets-american-exceptionalism-trade-falters-as-dollar-stocks-bonds-all-slide">Wall Street&#8217;s &#8216;American Exceptionalism&#8217; Trade Falters As Dollar, Stocks, Bonds All Slide</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Ryan DeBerardinis/Shutterstock

ABBV

INCY

SWKS

Tech Stocks Rebound As US Treasuries Tumble: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on Fox Business Wednesday to praise President Donald Trump's aggressive trade stance and decry China's latest move to hike tariffs on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44708618/china-retaliates-with-massive-84-tariff-hike-on-us-goods-amid-escalating-trade-war">U.S. goods to 84%</a>.
What Happened: "They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world," Bessent said, referring to Beijing. "They can raise their tariffs, but so what? Their exports to the U.S. are five times ours to them. This escalation is a loser for them."
Bessent warns that China's economy is already in a deep structural slowdown, weighed down by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/05/38643079/chinas-new-homes-market-is-in-a-state-of-freefall">a real estate crisis</a> and weak consumer demand.
Meanwhile, Trump's tariff-induced sell-off has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/04/44679299/trump-tariffs-triggers-historic-equity-wipeout-outpacing-covid-lehman-crashes-with-no-bond-rally-to-cushion-the-blow-says-lawrence-mcdonald">wiped out $9 trillion</a> in equity capital over six weeks. It rivals the $9 trillion lost during the COVID crash in 2020 over one month. It also surpasses the $8 trillion erased during the 12 months following the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. Also, U.S. consumer confidence is at its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44475192/consumer-confidence-falls-to-lowest-since-2022-as-inflation-tariff-worries-grow">lowest level since late 2022</a>.
But Bessent insists that the trade war is compounding China's economic problems. Any attempt by Beijing to manipulate its currency to offset tariffs would damage its own economy, he argues.
"They're going from bad to terrible," Bessent said. "If China tries to devalue their way out of this, then that's a tax on the rest of the world."
Bessent added that such a move would likely trigger a global chain reaction, forcing other countries like Japan, South Korea, and the European Union to raise tariffs in response to a weaker yuan. He claims that would further isolate China economically.
"Everyone is coming to the table. Basically, China is surrounded," Bessent said, referring to growing trade cooperation between the U.S. and key Asian allies like Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
Bessent also tied the tariff push to national security, pointing to China's role in the fentanyl epidemic that continues to ravage the U.S. population. He said that addressing the flow of precursor chemicals from China should be a top priority in any negotiations.
"Distributing drugs in China is punishable by death. Why don't they apply the same standard to the people who are exporting these chemicals to the U.S.?" Bessent asked.
He said the original trigger for Trump's tariff escalation was China's failure to stop fentanyl exports. This, he says, remains a valid reason to maintain pressure.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44710975/wall-streets-american-exceptionalism-trade-falters-as-dollar-stocks-bonds-all-slide">Wall Street&#8217;s &#8216;American Exceptionalism&#8217; Trade Falters As Dollar, Stocks, Bonds All Slide</a>
Why It Matters: Bessent says China's retaliatory tariff action in response to the U.S. imposing a 104% tariff on Chinese goods will hurt its own fragile economy far more than it impacts the U.S.
Chinese officials disagree. "As the world's second-largest economy and the second-largest consumer market, China will only continue to open its doors wider, regardless of the changing international landscape," China's Foreign Ministry said in a <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202504/t20250405_11588935.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">statement</a> on April 5.
Markets remain in turmoil, with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) nearing bear market territory. Pressure is now extending to Treasuries as well.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) plunging 6.5% over four sessions. But Bessent played down fears of a systemic crisis, characterizing the selloff in Treasuries as a normal market shakeout.
"This is an uncomfortable but normal deleveraging. Some large leverage players are experiencing losses and being forced to reduce exposure," Bessent said.
As leverage comes down, the bond market will stabilize, he said. Bank deregulation will also create new, more durable demand for Treasuries, he added.
What&#8217;s Next: Bessent says the White House is moving to pass a tax extension package and roll out further deregulation measures aimed at reigniting private sector investment.
He called the negotiations "substantial" and said Trump's direct involvement is accelerating momentum on Capitol Hill. Deregulation, he noted, takes time to show results, but will be "powerful" once implemented.
"We are going to releverage the private sector through smart, safe and sound bank deregulation," Bessent said. "Part of that includes changing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio so banks can buy more Treasuries without a big capital charge."
Bessent said Trump's economic plan is about reversing trends from the previous administration. 
It&#8217;s worth noting that, under the Biden administration, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.4% at one point. The last time it was that low <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/05/32369714/its-been-70-years-since-a-president-with-unemployment-at-3-4-had-approval-ratings-as-low-as-bide">was in 1969</a>.
"We're reprivatizing the economy," Bessent said. &#8220;As we get the budget under control and inflation under control, energy prices will come down, and then the private sector will have room to grow.&#8221;
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44711174/how-to-trade-spy-as-china-spews-retaliatory-tariffs-technical-analysis">How To Trade SPY As China Spews Retaliatory Tariffs: Technical Analysis</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

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