iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

Últimas noticias sobre iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the Underlying Index), which measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years. As of February 29, 2024, there were 40 issues in the Underlying Index. The Underlying Index consists of publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have dollar 300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed). In addition, the securities in the Underlying Index must be fixed rate and denominated in U.S. dollars. Excluded from the Underlying Index are inflation-linked securities, Treasury bills, cash management bills, any government agency debt issued with or without a government guarantee and zero-coupon issues that have been stripped from coupon-paying bonds. The Underlying Index is market value weighted, and the securities in the Underlying Index are updated on the last business day of each month.

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Live On CNBC, Joe Terranova Announces Increased iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Position

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-04-23_08h09_14.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Walk Back From The Brink</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-trump-walks-back-tesla-earnings-tlt-mc-04232025">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;The chart shows that TLT was staying below zone 3.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent rally in bonds after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally did not even reach the top band of zone 3 before failing.&nbsp; This indicated high stress in the bond market.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds were back in the danger zone ahead of the all important $70B 5 year Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>In our analysis, without President Trump walking back from the brink, there was real danger for the auction today to go poorly and push bonds into zone 4 shown on the chart.</li>
<li>As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve as you knew that the bond market was President Trump's pain point.</li>
<li>President Trump walked back from the brink:
<ul>
<li>President Trump said he did not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell.</li>
<li>President Trump said soothing things about China.</li>
<li>Earlier in the day yesterday, Bessent had laid the groundwork, indicating that the situation with China should de-escalate over time.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Immediately after President Trump's comment about not firing Powell, extremely aggressive buying came in the markets.
<ul>
<li>Stocks sharply rose in the after hours.</li>
<li>Bonds rose.</li>
<li>Oil rose.</li>
<li>Dollar rose.</li>
<li>Yen fell.</li>
<li>Gold fell.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reason the yen and gold fell was because after President Trump's walk back, there is less need for safe havens.</li>
<li>Earlier in the afternoon, prior to President Trump's walk back, as full disclosure, We had given signals to take partial profits on gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Newmont Corporation (NEM).  With the benefit of hindsight, these calls now seem prescient, but only time will tell how good these calls were.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock is very popular among retail investors.  Moves in TSLA stock impact sentiment.  After hours, Tesla reported dismal earnings &#8211; the worst in a long time.  Aggressive buying came into TSLA stock when CEO Elon Musk said he would be spending less time on DOGE and more time on his businesses.  This comment from Musk energized Tesla bulls and added to the positive sentiment in the stock market that had started minutes earlier from President Trump's statement.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment is that India may consider zero tariffs on Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) bikes.  Musk is also thinking of expanding into India.</li>
<li>There was considerable Fed speak yesterday.&nbsp; Normally, we would have shared with you the important points from the Fed speak in this morning's Capsule.&nbsp; However, President Trump's comments have rendered the Fed speak meaningless.</li>
<li>Investors should pay careful attention to the results of the Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book will be released today at 2pm ET.</li>
<li>A 20% staff cut at a big company is draconian.  Yet, this is exactly what the new CEO at Intel Corp (INTC) is doing.  Investors love layoffs.  Unfazed by the misery of those who are laid off, investors are cold hearted.  Investors believe the bigger the layoff the better.   Money is flowing into INTC stock on the news.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment are good earnings from Boeing Co (BA), AT&amp;T Inc (T), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), and SAP SE (SAP).</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing aggressive buying.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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Markets

$BTC

The Real Reason Trump Walked Back From The Brink, Tesla Bulls Energized, Intel Cuts

Fears of the end of the U.S. exceptionalism trade have triggered a rare, simultaneous selloff across stocks, Treasuries and the dollar in recent weeks, as concerns over tariffs and the politicization of the Federal Reserve under President Donald <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Trump continue to mount.</a>
Since Trump's self-declared "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on U.S. trading partners, the market reaction has been swift and broadly negative. U.S. government bonds, traditionally a refuge during equity volatility, have failed to provide a safe haven.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Trump-Powell Tension Behind The Market Unwind</h3>
Market fragility was further exposed by Trump&#8217;s open attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 
First, he wrote last week on Truth Social, "Jerome Powell is always too late and wrong. His termination cannot come fast enough." 
Then, during a press conference with Italy's Giorgia Meloni, he pushed the issue further: "If I want him out. He&#8217;ll be out of there real fast. Believe me."
Confirmation from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett that the administration is "considering" removing Powell before his term ends in 2026, also added fuel to the fire.
On Monday, the Trump-Powell drama escalated again, sending shockwaves across currency markets, where central bank independence is viewed as a cornerstone of stability.
Trump posted on Truth Social, pushing for "preemptive" interest rate cuts. He wrote that with energy costs and food prices falling — sarcastically referencing Biden's "egg disaster" — inflation was virtually gone. The president warned of a slowing economy unless Powell, whom he labeled a "major loser," acted immediately.
He further accused Powell of political bias during the previous election cycle, claiming the Fed Chair only cut rates to help former President Joe Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House.
Betting markets currently assign a 23% chance on Powell no longer serving as Fed Chair by the end of the year. 
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/LEAVEPOWELL-25/markets/LEAVEPOWELL-25-DEC31?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Triple Threat: Stocks, Bonds, Dollar All Down</h3>
The market has responded decisively. Since April 2, 2025:
<ul>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has dropped more than 6%</li>
<li>The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), tracking the dollar index, has fallen 5.8%</li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) has tumbled over 8%</li>
</ul>
This rare triple selloff challenges a foundational assumption: that Treasuries typically gain when risk assets fall. 
The breakdown of this historical inverse correlation has led many to wonder: Are investors abandoning Treasuries?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What the Official Data Shows, And What It Doesn't</h2>
The latest U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, covering February, doesn&#8217;t show large-scale foreign divestment. 
According to Goldman Sachs, foreign investors actually net purchased long-term U.S. securities in February, including Treasuries, equities and corporate bonds.
Agency securities saw some selling, but overall the data point to continued interest from global buyers—even as market volatility ramps up.
That said, February is now outdated. 
With April&#8217;s turbulence unfolding post-TIC cutoff, the latest exchange-traded fund flows could offer more immediate clues about investor behavior.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Flows Reveal a More Nuanced Picture</h3>
According to data from ETFDB.com through April 18, there's no evidence of broad-based exodus from Treasury ETFs. 
Despite some rotation out of long-duration ETFs like TLT and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDV#NYSE">EDV</a>), short- and mid-duration Treasury ETFs have attracted strong inflows during the month. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name </th>
<th>April Flows</th>
<th>Trend Insight</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF </td>
<td>-$2.85 billion</td>
<td>Outflows have outweighed inflows since September 2024. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF</td>
<td>-$385 million</td>
<td>Worst monthly outflow since data began in 2015</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#NYSE">GOVT</a>)</td>
<td>+$78 million</td>
<td>Modest recovery after March's $2.95 billion outflow</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHY#NASDAQ">SHY</a>)</td>
<td>+$1.2 billion</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEI#NYSE">IEI</a>)</td>
<td>+$897 million</td>
<td>Highest inflows since July 2022</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHV#NASDAQ">SHV</a>)</td>
<td>+$2.94 billion</td>
<td>Best month since February 2023</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>+$230 million</td>
<td>Four straight months of inflows</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGIT#NASDAQ">VGIT</a>)</td>
<td>+$770 million</td>
<td>Strongest inflows since June 2024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGSH#NASDAQ">VGSH</a>)</td>
<td>+$505 million</td>
<td>On pace for fourth straight positive month</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>)</td>
<td>+$3.55 million</td>
<td>Minimal activity; flows remain stagnant since October 2024</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data as of April 18, 2025</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What About China?</h3>
There's also speculation that major foreign holders, especially China, could be reducing exposure to U.S. government debt in retaliation for tariffs. 
Yet, Goldman Sachs analysts see little evidence of that.
They indicated the recent dislocations are "more likely related to position unwinds by levered investors than significant real money (domestic or international) selling," a view also recently expressed by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/scott-bessent">U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent</a> during a Bloomberg interview. 
As Goldman highlighted, the dollar/yuan exchange rate behavior does not support the idea of major Chinese repatriation—
if Beijing were dumping Treasuries, USD/CNY would likely face sharp downward pressure, but the opposite has happened.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">No Sign Of A Treasury Crisis, Yet</h3>
The bottom line: while some repositioning out of longer-dated Treasuries has been repositioned, ETF flows suggest no broad investor flight from the Treasury market.
If anything, there is a tilt toward shorter maturities, likely reflecting a desire to hedge against both rate volatility and political uncertainty.
Until more recent TIC data is available in June, ETF flows remain the best window into investor sentiment and so far, they suggest the panic narrative may be premature.
Now Read: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44886209/if-you-had-bet-on-gold-after-the-1971-nixon-shock-youd-have-beaten-the-sp-500-unless-you-did-this-one-thing">If You Had Bet On Gold After The 1971 Nixon Shock, You&#8217;d Have Beaten The S&amp;P 500 — Unless You Did This One Thing</a></li>
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ZROZ

Are Investors Selling US Treasuries As Trump Attacks Powell? Here's What Latest ETF Flows Tell You

When stock market volatility erupts — as it has during global trade tensions, changing Fed policy, and fresh inflationary pressures — the bond market is meant to act as a financial lifeboat. And <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">recently, it ha</a>s. 
The biggest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">Treasury bond ETFs</a>, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), retained their footing and moved higher, reminding investors why bonds remain a cornerstone of portfolio stability.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44772011/gold-miners-go-parabolic-gdx-hits-2012-highs-newmont-soars-9">Gold Miners Go Parabolic: GDX Hits 2012 Highs, Newmont Soars 9%</a>
But it&#8217;s not only old-school buy-and-hold passive strategies that are in favor. Investors increasingly gravitate toward actively managed bond ETFs, wagering that clever managers can ride the rate rollercoaster more effectively than a fixed index.
While active stock pickers again struggled, active bond managers quietly won, writes a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2024.pdf">report </a>by S&amp;P Global&#8217;s SPIVA Scorecard. It discovered that most active bond funds beat their indexed counterparts in 11 of 16 fixed-income categories last year — a striking reversal of the long-standing narrative that active management doesn&#8217;t pay.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury ETFs Take Center Stage</h2>
During the latest round of market upheaval, Treasury bond ETFs attracted billions of dollars in flows as investors flocked to find shelter from the tempest. According to Morningstar:
<ul>
<li>The Bronze-rated iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) attracted $2.6 billion between April 3 and April 7</li>
<li>The shorter-duration SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPTI#NYSE">SPTI</a>) attracted $1.6 billion. </li>
</ul>
Investors preferred low credit-risk vehicles but were still on the fence about the amount of interest rate risk they were willing to endure.
The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) and the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) were also in hot demand. Unlike past bear markets, however, these passive giants were matched by flows into actively managed &#8220;enhanced core&#8221; bond funds — strategies that try to beat the likes of AGG, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/bonds-are-back-in-market-crash-what-investors-are-buying-changed.html">according </a>to CNBC. Active enhanced core funds attracted five times more money than their passive counterparts in the core bond space this year, ETFaction says.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44767888/how-intels-ceo-pick-could-jolt-chip-stocks-and-etfs">How Intel&#8217;s CEO Pick Could Jolt Chip Stocks And ETFs</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Emergence Of Ultrashort ETFs</h2>
Ultrashort bond ETFs were also front and center, serving as cash substitutes during the mayhem. 
According to Morningstar, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIL#NYSE">BIL</a>) received $3.5 billion in inflows from April 3 to 7. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOV#NYSE">SGOV</a>) took in another $1.1 billion. 
With modest yields and little risk, these funds are now the parking lots of choice for investors who want to hold capital without locking it up for a longer duration.
Still, not all parts of the ultrashort segment thrived. Riskier plays like the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JAAA#NYSE">JAAA</a>) — which had tripled in size in just 12 months — saw a reversal of fortune, bleeding over $1 billion recently as investors moved away from higher credit risk, per Morningstar report.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What&#8217;s Next?</h2>
The Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation, while policy confusion hurts the economic outlook. Yet, bond market forces are in transition. Rather than simply going into hiding — they&#8217;re getting more subtle in their approach. Passive ETFs remain in the picture, but the increasing demand for actively managed Treasury and core bond funds represents a new fixed-income era.
As Treasury ETFs provide a sound hedge and active bond managers are justifying their role, the new bond market playbook may not be so passive after all.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/04/44746774/smart-investors-are-watching-these-3-etfs-after-surprise-jobs-data-beat">Smart Investors Are Watching These 3 ETFs After Surprise Jobs Data Beat</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

JAAA

SGOV

SPTI

From Boring To Booming: How Treasury ETFs Are Beating The Bear

Wall Street ended the week on a strong note, with major indices posting their best weekly performance in years, as traders appeared confident that the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war — which led to triple-digit tariff increases on both sides — would be resolved in the near term.
Not even a shocking University of Michigan survey on consumer sentiment — revealing the most pronounced stagflation concerns in decades — nor fears of stress in the Treasury market were enough to curb the surge in dip-buying activity that emerged in the final <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44764554/consumer-sentiment-crashes-to-3-year-lows-as-inflation-expectations-spike-to-1981-highs">day of the week.</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Rallies, Treasury Stress Fades</h1>
The S&amp;P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), closed at 5,363, up 1.8% on the day and 5.7% for the week, marking its best weekly performance since October 2023.
From its lows earlier in the week, the index jumped 11% and now sits just four percentage points below the level it held prior to President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2.
The Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), also rose 1.8% on Friday, bringing weekly gains to 7.5% — its strongest performance since November 2022.
Since Monday's lows, tech stocks have surged 13% and are now about three percentage points below pre-tariff levels.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), rose 1.6%, extending weekly gains to 4.9%, the best week for blue chips since October 2023.
From the week's lows, the Dow has gained about 10%, and it currently trades nearly five percentage points below the level prior to the tariff news.
Materials were the best-performing sector on Friday, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) closing 3.5% higher, buoyed by strong rallies in mining stocks.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) jumped 5.7% on the day and nearly 20% for the week, reaching levels last seen in 2012, as gold prices continued to break record highs.
Tensions in the Treasury market, which had triggered concern in Washington earlier in the day as the 30-year yield hit 5% and the 10-year surpassed 4.5%, eased by the close. The 30-year yield retreated sharply to 4.85%, while the 10-year settled at 4.47%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) ended in the green, up 0.54%.
Oil prices rose 2.1% to $61.50 a barrel, and copper climbed 4.8%, signaling easing fears about global economic conditions.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) also reflected the improved risk sentiment, rising more than 5% to $83,850.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Top 5 Performers</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company Name </th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MPWR#NASDAQ">MPWR</a>)</td>
<td>+9.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>)</td>
<td>+7.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HII#NYSE">HII</a>)</td>
<td>+7.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>)</td>
<td>+6.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAST#NASDAQ">FAST</a>)</td>
<td>+6.42%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Nasdaq 100&#8217;s Top 5 Performers</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company Name </th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>)</td>
<td>+10.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fastenal Co.</td>
<td>+6.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>)</td>
<td>+5.49%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>)</td>
<td>+5.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>)</td>
<td>+4.83%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/25/04/44772209/3-big-brand-stocks-to-lean-on-during-tariff-troubles">3 Big Brand Stocks To Lean On During Tariff Troubles</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/BOY+Suttiphong">Sutthiphong Chandaeng</a> via Shutterstock

Commodities

AMAT

AVGO

FAST

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

MPWR

MRNA

MSTR

Stocks Notch Best Week In Years As Dip Buying On Tariff Crisis Gathers Momentum

Back-to-back weaker-than-expected inflation reports are failing to calm the U.S. Treasury market, with bond yields climbing again on Friday and fueling speculation that a policy misalignment may soon <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">force the Fed's hand.</a>
In a Friday report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index, or PPI—a key gauge of wholesale prices—fell 0.4% month-over-month in March, marking the largest decline since 2023. On an annual basis, producer inflation slowed to 2.7%, well below economists' estimates of 3.3% and down from 3.2% in February.
Stripping out volatile food and energy components, core producer prices fell 0.1% in the month and increased 3.3% on an annual basis, again undercutting forecasts.
Some of the sharpest PPI price declines in March included:
<ul>
<li>Eggs for fresh use: -21.3%</li>
<li>Fresh and dry vegetables: -13.0%</li>
<li>Fruits and melons: -12.2%</li>
<li>Gasoline: -11.7%</li>
<li>Diesel fuel: -6.5%</li>
</ul>
The data followed Thursday's cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed slowing price <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/04/44733390/march-inflation-rate-cools-far-more-than-expected-raises-hopes-for-near-term-fed-rate-cuts">pressures at the consumer level. </a>
Despite this cooling inflation backdrop, Treasury yields are rising. The 10-year yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.50%, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.92%, up 5 bps. Both have jumped around 50 basis points this week alone.
The popular 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has fallen 7% since President Donald Trump&#8216;s tariff announcement on April 2. 
"These are numbers you only see in recession," posted the account @FrogNews on X. "With this kind of print, your Fed should be WAY more worried about deflation than inflation."
"Producer price pressures are easing faster than expected — a welcome sign for the Fed and markets hunting for disinflation proof," said Neem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
Some analysts see recent tariff-related behaviors distorting the data. Charles V Payne noted that &#8220;tariff talk influenced the tick higher in February CPI and PPI data because demand was pulled forward. So it&#8217;s very curious that such demand faded in March.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Vigilantes Aren&#8217;t Buying The Disinflation Story</h3>
Despite back-to-back disinflationary prints, Treasury yields have surged roughly 50 basis points over the week. That's counterintuitive. Typically, falling inflation would pull yields lower as traders anticipate looser monetary policy.
But the bond market isn't buying it—not yet. 
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, said the bond market reaction "is not overly impressed by the PPI report" and noted that while inflation is easing, market attention has shifted toward policy uncertainty and broader macro risks.
That theory gained traction as PPI components related to goods, especially airfares, posted stark declines. 
Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noted that components that matter most for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – saw a softness, indicating another upcoming benign inflation reading.
PPI Elements That Feed Into PCE:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Airline passenger services</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Portfolio management</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Physician care</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Home health, hospice care</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hospital outpatient care</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hospital inpatient care</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nursing home care</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
The odds of a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's May 7 meeting remain low, with markets assigning just a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, according to CME FedWatch data.
However, the recent turbulence in Treasury markets and growing concerns over the dollar's stability may be early signals pushing the Federal Reserve to step in and ensure market liquidity.
The key question now is whether policymakers will respond to lagging inflation data or turn their attention to looming economic risks and uncertainties tied to trade policy and tariffs.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44760533/jpmorgan-kicks-off-earnings-season-strong-investment-banking-wealth-management-lead-revenue-surge">&#8216;Economy Is Facing Considerable Turbulence:&#8217; JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon Cautions About &#8216;Negatives Of Tariffs And Trade Wars&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Inflation Cools, Yields Continue To Climb: Why Markets Aren't Ruling Out A May Rate Cut

Despite a surprisingly soft inflation report and President Donald Trump&#8216;s temporary trade truce, U.S. Treasury yields rose Thursday, suggesting that bond investors remain skeptical of a near-term Fed pivot and are bracing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for prolonged policy uncertainty.</a>
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose 8 basis points to 4.81%, retracing roughly half of the sharp decline sparked by Trump's unexpected 90-day tariff pause the day before. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield ticked up 3 basis points to 4.35%, signaling persistent investor wariness despite improving macroeconomic signals.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 1.5% at the open.
While falling inflation typically softens yields by boosting rate-cut hopes, bond investors are clearly holding their breath, waiting for a more decisive signal — the so-called &#8220;Fed Put&#8221; — from the central bank.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Cools Sharply, But the Fed Stays Quiet</h3>
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped more than expected in March 2025, reviving hopes that the Federal Reserve might pivot to rate cuts sooner than anticipated. 
Annual inflation fell to 2.4%, the lowest since September 2024, down from 2.8% in February and well below the 2.6% consensus forecast.
Even more striking, monthly inflation contracted by 0.1%, marking the first negative reading since May 2020. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 2.8% year-over-year, its lowest level since March 2021.
Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear he's in no hurry. In his latest remarks, Powell reiterated that the economy remains in a &#8220;good place&#8221; and emphasized patience in adjusting monetary policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Market Vigilantes Are Back</h3>
This cautious stance has left room for the return of what some economists call the &#8220;bond vigilantes&#8221; — investors who push yields higher to impose market discipline when they sense monetary or fiscal authorities are falling behind the curve.
&#8220;Bond investors are the economy&#8217;s bond vigilantes&#8230; if the fiscal and monetary authorities won't regulate the economy, the bond investors will,&#8221; said Ed Yardeni, recalling his now-famous quote first uttered in 1983. 
&#8220;The Trump administration may be playing with liquid nitro,&#8221; Yardeni added, warning of unpredictable consequences if markets lose faith.
According to Yardeni, the Fed Put — a market belief that the Fed will step in during turmoil — might reappear swiftly if financial stress deepens.
Echoing this view, economist Nouriel Roubini framed the current climate as a tense standoff.
&#8220;In this three-way game of chicken between Trump, Powell, and Xi Jinping, Powell did not blink,&#8221; Roubini said. 
&#8220;Instead, market discipline forced Trump to backtrack — not equities alone, but soaring bond yields, widening credit spreads, and fears of a disorderly dollar collapse led to the 90-day tariff pause.&#8221;
Roubini believes that while the pause eases tensions, Trump feels emboldened, and Xi can't afford to lose face. A true de-escalation may only come through backchannel diplomacy, not economic signals alone.
Even Trump admitted on Wednesday: &#8220;I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky… But if you look at it now it&#8217;s beautiful.&#8221;
On Thursday, he announced that a &#8220;Big, Beautiful, Bill&#8221; on tax cuts is on the way.
But bond markets aren't buying it — not yet.
Despite the White House&#8217;s softer rhetoric and a clear disinflationary trend, yields are under upward pressure, hinting that large foreign holders may be offloading long-dated Treasuries to repatriate funds amid global uncertainties.
Adding to the complexity, the U.S. dollar index dropped 1.2% on Thursday, on pace for its lowest close since early October 2024. Since Trump's inauguration in January, the greenback has lost nearly 8%, reflecting investor unease over both trade and fiscal policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Speakers On Deck</h3>
Later today, markets will closely monitor remarks from a slate of Federal Reserve officials, including:
<ul>
<li>Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, at a North American trade and immigration conference.</li>
<li>Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, on monetary policy and the economy.</li>
<li>Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee for her nomination as vice chair for supervision.</li>
<li>Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, in a Q&amp;A with the Economic Club of New York.</li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44731044/jim-cramer-says-pre-market-slide-driven-by-profit-takers-shorts-are-trying-to-figure-whether-to-operate-on-nvidia-avgo-aapl">Jim Cramer Says Pre-Market Slide Driven By Profit-Takers: &#8216;Shorts Are Trying To Figure Whether To Operate On Nvidia, AVGO, AAPL&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Treasury Yields Rise Despite Cooling Inflation Data As 'Bond Vigilantes' Test Fed Resolve

This options trading expert says "We took advantage of the rally to add short exposure, including on Apple (AAPL)." Here's why...<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="582" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-1024x582.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-10182" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-1024x582.jpg 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-300x171.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear-768x436.jpg 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09224703/Bull-and-bear.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Did You Enjoy That Face-Ripping Rally?</h2>
As ZaStocks pointed out on X, it was the second-biggest single day gain in Nasdaq history. The other two happened during bear markets.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Today marked the second largest single day gain in NASDAQ history. The top three spots? 1. 1/3/2001, +14.17% 2. 4/9/2025, +12% 3. 10/13/2008, +11.81% In both other instances, the NASDAQ ended up making a new low.
&mdash; Za (@ZaStocks) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZaStocks/status/1910062009904964049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The first one, on 1/3/2021, happened during the bear market that started in March of 2000, when the dot-com bubble popped. That bear market didn&#8217;t bottom until October 9th, 2002.&nbsp;
The third biggest one-day rally, on 10/13/2008, happened during the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. That one didn&#8217;t bottom out until March 9th, 2009.&nbsp;
Any long-only investor who dived back in after those face-ripping rallies lost a lot of money over the next several months.&nbsp;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What We Did Instead&nbsp;</h2>
We <a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-monster-rally">took advantage of the rally</a> to add short exposure, including on Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>). 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/boQlTVjpHh">https://t.co/boQlTVjpHh</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1910043393482457131?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Did it make sense for Apple shares to rally more than 15% on news of President Trump&#8217;s 90-day pause on tariffs excluding China? 90% of Apple&#8217;s products are still made in China. That rally seemed irrational to us, so we faded it.&nbsp;
We also placed a couple of bullish bets made attractive by the liquidity drought due to the unwinding of the basis trade.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/X2FqTQOzMv">https://t.co/X2FqTQOzMv</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1909873302077649189?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
One of those was a call spread on iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>), and the other was a calendar spread on Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>). 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What To Do Now&nbsp;</h2>
We keep telling you to take advantage of rallies to hedge. You should consider doing so.&nbsp;

As a reminder, you&nbsp;can download the Portfolio Armor optimal hedging app by aiming your iPhone camera at the QR code below (or by&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-armor/id394951144">tapping here</a>, if you&#8217;re reading this on your phone). Our app can help you find the least expensive hedges given your risk tolerance and time frame.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-armor/id394951144"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="200" height="197" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09225502/QR-Code-4.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-10183" /></a></figure>
And if you want to follow us next time we zig when the market zags, feel free to subscribe to&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/">our trading Substack</a>/occasional email list below.&nbsp;
If you&#8217;d like to stay in touch
You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and&nbsp;create hedged portfolios&nbsp;on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.com/">our website</a>.&nbsp;You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/portfolioarmor">here</a>, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we&#8217;re using that for our occasional emails now).
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="581" height="372" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09225822/Widget-4.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-10184" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09225822/Widget-4.jpg 581w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09225822/Widget-4-300x192.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 581px) 100vw, 581px" /></a></figure>

Technicals

Options

Signals

AAPL

Why We're Fading Apple's 15% Rally

JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Wednesday that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have significantly increased the risk of a recession after President Donald Trump's tariff policies <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44710975/wall-streets-american-exceptionalism-trade-falters-as-dollar-stocks-bonds-all-slide">destabilized financial markets. </a>
The Details: During a Fox Business interview, Dimon attributed the growing recession risk to the cascading effects of Trump's trade policies and China's<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44708618/china-retaliates-with-massive-84-tariff-hike-on-us-goods-amid-escalating-trade-war"> retaliatory tariffs</a>. 
JPMorgan economists recently raised their recession probability to 60% and anticipate a 0.3% GDP contraction this year. 
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44695907/elon-musk-calls-trump-trade-advisor-peter-navarro-dumber-than-sack-of-bricks-defends-tesla-as-the-most-american-made-cars">Elon Musk Calls Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navarro &#8216;Dumber Than Sack Of Bricks,&#8217; Defends Tesla As &#8216;Most American-Made Cars&#8217;&nbsp;</a>
When asked if he expects a recession, Dimon replied, "I think that's a likely outcome."&nbsp;
"A 2,000-point Dow decline creates a self-reinforcing cycle – people see losses in retirement accounts and pensions, leading to spending cuts," he said.&nbsp;
The 69-year-old CEO noted that markets are "pricing in uncertainty at both macro and company level." Bond yields are spiking, and initial public offerings, mergers, and acquisitions are stalling amid the volatility. 
Though Dimon acknowledged that markets don't always predict accurately, he said, "This time they're right in pricing macro/micro-level uncertainties and consumer sentiment impacts." He also expects "more credit challenges than people have seen in a long time" due to sticky inflation and widening credit spreads. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) is on the edge of a bear market. It&#8217;s down nearly 20% from its recent peak. 
Bond prices are also falling sharply. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>) is down more than 5% over the past five days. 
"Take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals,&#8221; Dimon urged the Trump administration. &#8220;It could get worse if we don't make progress.&#8221;
It&#8217;s worth noting that Dimon isn't always spot-on with his predictions. In late 2022, he warned that an <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/22/10/29208975/jamie-dimon-warns-of-u-s-recession-in-6-9-months-says-jp-morgan-preparing-for-economic-hurricane" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">economic "hurricane"</a> was coming in mid-2023. It never happened, and Dimon walked back those comments.
"I shouldn&#8217;t ever use the word hurricane, but … there were storm clouds," Dimon <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/01/30358567/i-shouldnt-ever-use-the-word-hurricane-jamie-dimon-says-storm-clouds-remain-but-the-consumer-is-roll" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> in a 2023 interview.
And in an interview with CNBC last year, Dimon said, &#8220;We would be okay&#8221; <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40241448/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-skeptical-of-feds-ability-to-achieve-2-inflation-target-estimates-35-to-40">in a recession</a>. 
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44667862/oil-crashes-to-60-per-barrel-as-recession-fears-grow">Oil Crashes To $60 Per Barrel As Global Recession Fears Grow&nbsp;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Management

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon Warns Recession Now 'Likely Outcome'

Wall Street saw a tentative tech rebound early Wednesday, as investors begin to shrug off escalating U.S.-China trade tensions following <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">a steep market selloff.</a>
After the Trump administration announced a dramatic hike in tariffs on Chinese goods to 104% starting Wednesday, Beijing retaliated with an 84% tariff on American products. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the aggressive trade stance, claiming the impact would ultimately backfire on China.
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social, writing, &#8220;BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!&#8221; 
He encouraged investors by stating, &#8220;this is a great time to buy, DJT,&#8221; likely referring to Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>), rather than the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which has dropped 18% since the tariff news broke.
Yet, broader risk sentiment remains subdued, with investors awaiting either a softer tone from the White House or a signal from the Federal Reserve—though both hopes appear to be fading.
By mid-morning in New York, tech stocks staged a rebound, lifting the Nasdaq 100 by 0.9%. Yet, the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat, while the Russell 2000 continued to underperform.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries were failing to provide their traditional safe-haven support amid heightened uncertainty and volatility.
The 10-year Treasury yield surged 10 basis points to 4.40%, triggering a sharp selloff in medium- and long-dated bonds. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.8%, extending its three-day slide to 6.6%—its worst performance since March 2020.
Gold prices, on the other hand, soared over 3% to $3,075 per ounce, on track for their strongest daily gain since October 2023.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) also advanced, rising 1.4% to $77,289.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,243.25</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>4,980.40</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>37,576.14</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1,744.85</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 11:25 a.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.3% up to $498.23.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.1% up to $376.72.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 1% to $420.50.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.9% to $173.58</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 1.6%; the&nbsp;Utilities&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) lagged, down 1.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Top 5 Performers</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Last</th>
<th>Chg %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>)</td>
<td>38.43</td>
<td>7.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>)</td>
<td>82.60</td>
<td>5.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>)</td>
<td>18.97</td>
<td>4.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>231.56</td>
<td>4.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWKS#NASDAQ">SWKS</a>)</td>
<td>51.35</td>
<td>4.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)</td>
<td>179.89</td>
<td>4.33%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Worst 5 Losers</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Last</th>
<th>Chg %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMY#NYSE">BMY</a>)</td>
<td>50.29</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABBV#NYSE">ABBV</a>)</td>
<td>167.51</td>
<td>-4.64%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARE#NYSE">ARE</a>)</td>
<td>73.55</td>
<td>-4.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>)</td>
<td>33.49</td>
<td>-4.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INCY#NASDAQ">INCY</a>)</td>
<td>54.50</td>
<td>-4.34%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44710975/wall-streets-american-exceptionalism-trade-falters-as-dollar-stocks-bonds-all-slide">Wall Street&#8217;s &#8216;American Exceptionalism&#8217; Trade Falters As Dollar, Stocks, Bonds All Slide</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Ryan DeBerardinis/Shutterstock

ABBV

INCY

SWKS

TSLA

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Tech Stocks Rebound As US Treasuries Tumble: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on Fox Business Wednesday to praise President Donald Trump's aggressive trade stance and decry China's latest move to hike tariffs on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44708618/china-retaliates-with-massive-84-tariff-hike-on-us-goods-amid-escalating-trade-war">U.S. goods to 84%</a>.
What Happened: "They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world," Bessent said, referring to Beijing. "They can raise their tariffs, but so what? Their exports to the U.S. are five times ours to them. This escalation is a loser for them."
Bessent warns that China's economy is already in a deep structural slowdown, weighed down by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/05/38643079/chinas-new-homes-market-is-in-a-state-of-freefall">a real estate crisis</a> and weak consumer demand.
Meanwhile, Trump's tariff-induced sell-off has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/04/44679299/trump-tariffs-triggers-historic-equity-wipeout-outpacing-covid-lehman-crashes-with-no-bond-rally-to-cushion-the-blow-says-lawrence-mcdonald">wiped out $9 trillion</a> in equity capital over six weeks. It rivals the $9 trillion lost during the COVID crash in 2020 over one month. It also surpasses the $8 trillion erased during the 12 months following the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. Also, U.S. consumer confidence is at its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44475192/consumer-confidence-falls-to-lowest-since-2022-as-inflation-tariff-worries-grow">lowest level since late 2022</a>.
But Bessent insists that the trade war is compounding China's economic problems. Any attempt by Beijing to manipulate its currency to offset tariffs would damage its own economy, he argues.
"They're going from bad to terrible," Bessent said. "If China tries to devalue their way out of this, then that's a tax on the rest of the world."
Bessent added that such a move would likely trigger a global chain reaction, forcing other countries like Japan, South Korea, and the European Union to raise tariffs in response to a weaker yuan. He claims that would further isolate China economically.
"Everyone is coming to the table. Basically, China is surrounded," Bessent said, referring to growing trade cooperation between the U.S. and key Asian allies like Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
Bessent also tied the tariff push to national security, pointing to China's role in the fentanyl epidemic that continues to ravage the U.S. population. He said that addressing the flow of precursor chemicals from China should be a top priority in any negotiations.
"Distributing drugs in China is punishable by death. Why don't they apply the same standard to the people who are exporting these chemicals to the U.S.?" Bessent asked.
He said the original trigger for Trump's tariff escalation was China's failure to stop fentanyl exports. This, he says, remains a valid reason to maintain pressure.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44710975/wall-streets-american-exceptionalism-trade-falters-as-dollar-stocks-bonds-all-slide">Wall Street&#8217;s &#8216;American Exceptionalism&#8217; Trade Falters As Dollar, Stocks, Bonds All Slide</a>
Why It Matters: Bessent says China's retaliatory tariff action in response to the U.S. imposing a 104% tariff on Chinese goods will hurt its own fragile economy far more than it impacts the U.S.
Chinese officials disagree. "As the world's second-largest economy and the second-largest consumer market, China will only continue to open its doors wider, regardless of the changing international landscape," China's Foreign Ministry said in a <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202504/t20250405_11588935.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">statement</a> on April 5.
Markets remain in turmoil, with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) nearing bear market territory. Pressure is now extending to Treasuries as well.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) plunging 6.5% over four sessions. But Bessent played down fears of a systemic crisis, characterizing the selloff in Treasuries as a normal market shakeout.
"This is an uncomfortable but normal deleveraging. Some large leverage players are experiencing losses and being forced to reduce exposure," Bessent said.
As leverage comes down, the bond market will stabilize, he said. Bank deregulation will also create new, more durable demand for Treasuries, he added.
What&#8217;s Next: Bessent says the White House is moving to pass a tax extension package and roll out further deregulation measures aimed at reigniting private sector investment.
He called the negotiations "substantial" and said Trump's direct involvement is accelerating momentum on Capitol Hill. Deregulation, he noted, takes time to show results, but will be "powerful" once implemented.
"We are going to releverage the private sector through smart, safe and sound bank deregulation," Bessent said. "Part of that includes changing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio so banks can buy more Treasuries without a big capital charge."
Bessent said Trump's economic plan is about reversing trends from the previous administration. 
It&#8217;s worth noting that, under the Biden administration, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.4% at one point. The last time it was that low <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/05/32369714/its-been-70-years-since-a-president-with-unemployment-at-3-4-had-approval-ratings-as-low-as-bide">was in 1969</a>.
"We're reprivatizing the economy," Bessent said. &#8220;As we get the budget under control and inflation under control, energy prices will come down, and then the private sector will have room to grow.&#8221;
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44711174/how-to-trade-spy-as-china-spews-retaliatory-tariffs-technical-analysis">How To Trade SPY As China Spews Retaliatory Tariffs: Technical Analysis</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

'From Bad To Terrible': Treasury Secretary Slams Beijing's Retaliatory Tariffs As Trump Trade Agenda Wipes Trillions

At the start of 2025, exposure to the U.S. dollar and American assets like equities and Treasuries was a staple in global investment portfolios, riding high on the back of a resilient economy and a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">dominant U.S. exceptionalism narrative. </a>
For years, the global investment narrative leaned heavily on American dominance. Strong tech innovation, high productivity and relatively better demographics helped maintain a performance gap between U.S. equities and their global peers.
That conviction, however, is unraveling just four months later, as escalating trade tensions—spurred by President Donald Trump&#8216;s aggressive tariff push—have dramatically altered the outlook for the world&#8217;s largest economy.
The U.S. dollar and American assets, including both stocks and bonds, are experiencing a broad selloff, raising concerns among investors and challenging assumptions about the stability of U.S. markets.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Investors Perceive The US Isn't Safe Anymore</h3>
After several days of carnage on Wall Street, investor sentiment remains deeply negative, but the market reaction is beginning to signal something more concerning than just an equity selloff. 
The U.S. Treasury market, traditionally a safe haven during periods of market stress, is no longer playing its usual role.
Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked by 17 basis points during Wednesday's morning session, reaching 4.45%. That move — occurring in tandem with steep equity losses — is counterintuitive. 
Typically, bonds rally and yields fall as investors seek safety when stocks tumble. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) is now teetering on the brink of a bear market, down nearly 20% from its recent peak, yet Treasuries are offering no refuge.
Instead, bond prices are falling sharply. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has declined 3.5% over the last three trading sessions and slid another 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday. 
This marks the worst four-day stretch since 2022, when Treasuries plunged amid the Federal Reserve's rapid-fire rate hikes to combat soaring inflation.
Unlike in 2022, the current bond selloff appears to be driven less by inflation or rate expectations and more by growing concerns about the broader appeal of U.S. assets.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investors Are Liquidating Everything, Even Risk-Free Treasuries</h3>
Worryingly, it suggests that investors are liquidating even high-quality, dollar-denominated holdings to raise cash, as noted by a Citi research report published this week.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Citi on yesterday&#39;s &quot;mysterious rise&quot; in Treasury yields: &quot;This could be an early sign that investors are looking to liquidate positions even in high-quality assets to raise cash.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/8DGVyzq1DG">pic.twitter.com/8DGVyzq1DG</a>
&mdash; Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) <a href="https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1909575344908026297?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
&#8220;Much of the recent focus has been on the anomalous positive correlation between USD and US stocks,&#8221; Bank of America Global Rates and Currencies team wrote in a note Wednesday. 
"The correlation shifts are consistent with rising U.S. risk premium, ‘peak U.S. exceptionalism,'" said Bank of America. The note advised watching official data and Treasury auctions to assess the changing nature of foreign demand, particularly from unhedged buyers.
"The backdrop of U.S. exceptionalism in recent years has leaned against FX-hedging U.S. equities from a foreign investor perspective," wrote Goldman Sachs analysts. "In a few short months, those conclusions have flipped."
Goldman's FX strategist Michael Cahill said that if tariffs continue to erode corporate margins and reduce real consumer incomes, the central pillar of a strong dollar may crack. The dollar index is already showing signs of strain after months of bullishness.
&#8220;80 days ago in Davos, most common phrase was &#8220;American exceptionalism.&#8221; You heard everywhere. I would say probably every meeting I went to, everyone is focusing on how to do more in the United States. And obviously that&#8217;s been thrown out right now,&#8221; said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink during an event at the Economic Club of New York. 
Jefferies strategist Chris Woods also believes that the U.S. has likely peaked in terms of its share of global stock market capitalization. He sees limited upside for U.S. equities amid high valuations and slowing growth, and said that emerging market equities could begin to outperform if the dollar weakens further.
According to DataTrek Research, the so-called "American exceptionalism trade" relied on a virtuous cycle: rising stock prices drove capital allocation and underpinned economic policy that reinforced financial markets.
This self-sustaining loop has endured for 15 years, but a prolonged bout of volatility could cause lasting damage.
"A few weeks of turmoil does not necessarily threaten it. A few months of ever-lower stock prices, however, risks permanently damaging investors' confidence in its foundations," DataTrek said.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">1/2 The bedrock of the "American exceptionalism" trade over the last 15 years has been the virtuous circle connecting stock prices, the allocation of corporate/societal capital, and the US government's economic policies&#8230;
&mdash; Nick Colas &amp; Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) <a href="https://twitter.com/DataTrekMB/status/1909333119456387303?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The sharp selloff in U.S. Treasuries is not indicative of systemic trouble, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, calling the move a typical market dislocation driven by leveraged investors unwinding positions — not a sign of deeper instability.
While downplaying domestic risks, Bessent did strike a more hawkish tone on China, suggesting that Beijing could provoke broader global instability if it retaliates against tariffs by weakening its currency.
The U.S. imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese imports, with the impact beginning overnight, while Beijing fired back by raising tariffs on American goods to 84%.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44708618/china-retaliates-with-massive-84-tariff-hike-on-us-goods-amid-escalating-trade-war">Xi Jinping Hits Back: China Raises Tariffs On US Goods To 84%, Doubling Down On Trade War</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: FOTOGRIN/Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Wall Street's 'American Exceptionalism' Trade Falters As Dollar, Stocks, Bonds All Slide

<ul>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>COAL</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>TLT</li>
<li>MSTR</li>
<li>BABA</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>AMZN</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

AMZN

BABA

COAL

NVDA

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of April 9, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

Wall Street's sell-off shows no signs of easing into the week's close, in what's shaping up to be the worst week for U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">equities since March 2020</a>.
The market's bleeding is now visible across the board: the Dow Jones has slipped into correction territory, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has entered a bear market after falling more than 20% from its highs.
Tech and semiconductor stocks have taken the brunt of the damage, following China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods — a tit-for-tat move matching the rate once imposed by President Donald Trump.
The VIX index — also known as the &#8220;market fear gauge&#8221;&nbsp;— spiked 35% to 40 levels, heading for the highest daily close since October 2020.
Other countries are threatening retaliation, fueling fears of a broader global trade war that could disrupt supply chains and weigh heavily on the global economy.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NYSE">SOXX</a>) — a key proxy for the U.S. chipmaking industry — has plunged 16% this week, on track for its worst performance since September 2001 at the height of the dot-com crash.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) extended its losses by another 4.7% on Friday, heading toward its steepest two-day decline since 2013, as investors brace for potential revenue hits from the new Chinese tariffs.
Even <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44645518/strong-jobs-report-offers-hope-but-will-it-be-enough-to-counter-tariff-turmoil">a strong U.S. jobs report</a> — with 228,000 payrolls added in March, far above the expected 135,000 — did little to soothe nerves.
Hopes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might strike a more dovish tone were dashed. He <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44648681/powell-cites-tariff-driven-inflation-risks-shrugs-off-trumps-call-for-perfect-time-to-cut-rates">offered no signs of urgency to cut </a>rates, reiterating that the Fed is in no rush, and flagged inflation risks tied to tariffs. Powell stressed the importance of monitoring inflation expectations closely. 
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump continued posting on Truth Social, touting the &#8220;great jobs numbers&#8221; and warning China against behavior it &#8220;cannot afford to do.&#8221; He again pressed Powell to cut rates, saying it's the "perfect time," but his words seem to be losing sway on Wall Street.
As stocks slumped, bonds notched their best day of the year thus far. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 2.1%. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note were down by 10 basis points to 3.94%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance On Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,924.16</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,616.59</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,130.61</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1,809.22</td>
<td colspan="2">-5.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:55 p.m. </figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) sunk 4.6% to $512.41.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) fell 3.9% to $389.56.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;plummeted 4.8% to $428.85.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) nosedived 5.4% to 179.40.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) recorded the heaviest losses, down 7.3% and 6.1%, respectively. </li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Biggest Declines Within Large-Cap Stocks</h1>
<ul>
<li>SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNDK#NASDAQ">SNDK</a>) plunged 24.66%.</li>
<li>AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>) fell 18.14%.</li>
<li>New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFE#NASDAQ">NFE</a>) dropped 18.01%.</li>
<li>Civitas Resources, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CIVI#NYSE">CIVI</a>) sank 15.11%.</li>
<li>Weatherford International plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFRD#NASDAQ">WFRD</a>) declined 14.76%.</li>
<li>TechnipFMC plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FTI#NYSE">FTI</a>) fell 14.34%.</li>
<li>Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OVV#NYSE">OVV</a>) lost 13.62%. </li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Top Gains</h1>
<ul>
<li>Rocket Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RKT#NYSE">RKT</a>) surged 7.57%.</li>
<li>Gap Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GAP#NYSE">GAP</a>) rose 7.00%.</li>
<li>TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLD#NYSE">BLD</a>) jumped 6.49%.</li>
<li>GameStop Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GME#NYSE">GME</a>) climbed 6.08%.</li>
<li>NVR, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVR#NYSE">NVR</a>) advanced 5.86%.</li>
<li>D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>) gained 6.09%.</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44645681/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60-as-largest-us-tax-hike-in-60-years-hits-global-economy">JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk To 60% As &#8216;Largest US Tax Hike&#8217; In 60 Years Hits Global Economy</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/RasyidArt">RasyidArt</a> via Shutterstock

CIVI

SNDK

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

WFRD

Wall Street Massacre Rages On, Chipmakers Eye Worst Week Since Dot-Com Burst, Bonds Rally: What's Driving Markets Friday?

The 10-year Treasury just notched its best week since August, as a market flight to safety sent <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/treasury-yields">yields tumbling below 4%</a>. 
Investors rushing out of risk assets have piled into government bonds, pushing Treasury prices higher and handing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) a solid boost.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">A Bullish Run With Caution Signs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0404"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="631" height="489" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04102320/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-7.49.49-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-857708" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04102320/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-7.49.49-PM.png 631w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04102320/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-7.49.49-PM-300x232.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 631px) 100vw, 631px" /></a></figure>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0404" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart created using Benzinga Pro</a>
TLT is riding the wave, up 6.53% year-to-date and 2.03% in the past month. Technically, it&#8217;s looking strong — trading above its five-, 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages, flashing bullish signals. Its eight-day, 20-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages all confirm bullish momentum.
But, the RSI (relative strength index) at 67.88, nearly overbought, flags a potential sell-off risk ahead.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44572838/treasury-bonds-have-lost-50-in-5-years-yet-reversal-signals-emerge-in-q1-could-tariffs-actually-push-tlt-higher">Treasury Bonds Have Lost 50% In 5 Years, Yet Reversal Signals Emerge In Q1: Could Tariffs Actually Push TLT Higher?</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Treasuries Are Hot Again</h1>
Trump's latest round of tariffs has jolted markets, sending stocks and the dollar reeling. &#8220;U.S. Treasury yields have been falling sharply as investors rotate out of risk assets into safe havens,&#8221; notes Nicolas Trindade of AXA Investment Managers, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/25e49d20-27e0-4850-9235-a98bb0adf9c9">reported</a> the Financial Times. The shift marks a return to a traditional risk-off trade, where bond demand surges when stocks struggle.
Fraser Lundie of Aviva Investors sees this as a welcome reset, saying, &#8220;The return of a negative correlation between bonds and risk assets is a sign traditional relationships are reasserting themselves.&#8221; That's a major shift from 2022, when both bonds and stocks crashed in tandem.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">TLT: A Trend To Watch</h1>
With Treasuries rallying and TLT gaining ground, the momentum is clear. But with selling pressure building and economic uncertainty swirling, investors should keep a close eye on technical levels. 
If bond yields reverse, TLT could find itself in a turbulence zone just as fast as it took off.
For now, though, bond bulls are enjoying the ride.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44569760/peter-schiff-sounds-the-alarm-same-mistake-again-could-trigger-economic-firestorm">Peter Schiff Sounds The Alarm: &#8216;Same Mistake Again&#8217; Could Trigger Economic Firestorm</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: William Potter via Shutterstock

Treasuries Are Hot Again: 10-Year Records Best Week Since August, What Bond ETF Is Bullish?

Dip-buying remained absent in early Friday trading in New York, with Wall Street deep in the red as global trade war fears continued to escalate, despite the March jobs report showed continued signs of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44645518/strong-jobs-report-offers-hope-but-will-it-be-enough-to-counter-tariff-turmoil">U.S. labor market resilience. </a>
The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March—the strongest gain since December 2024—sharply beating expectations of 135,000, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Still, the report did little to calm nerves. Investors fear it may be the last strong print for a while, with the economic impact of rising tariffs expected to seep into the data in the coming months.
The unemployment rate ticked up just 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, remaining low by historical standards, while wage growth broadly aligned with forecasts. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.
Wall Street remained deep in the red after China announced a retaliatory 34% tariff on U.S. goods—matching the rate imposed by President Donald Trump on Wednesday—intensifying fears of a full-blown trade war.
Trump took to Truth Social on Friday. "Great job numbers, far better than expected. It's already working. Hang tough, we can't lose!"
He added. "China played it wrong, they panicked," and reassured investors: "This is a great time to get rich—richer than ever before!"
Investors are now on edge, awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 11:25 a.m. ET on Friday, hoping for any hint of a dovish shift in policy tone.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street In Bloodbath: Could Powell Halt The Bleeding? </h3>
Here's how the key benchmarks moved at the open:
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was down 2.9% by 9:55 a.m. in New York.</li>
<li>Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), fell 2.6%, officially entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its late-2024 peak.</li>
<li>Nasdaq-100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), fell 2.9%, hitting a 20% decline from all-time highs, entering a bear market. </li>
<li>Russell 2000, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), fell 4.1%. </li>
</ul>
Every sector traded in the red, with heaviest losses concentrated in Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>), down 5%, and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>), down 4%. 
While stocks continued to slump, bonds attracted haven flows. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell by 10 basis points to 3.94%. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 1.5%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Top Performers Among Mega-Caps</h3>
<ul>
<li>American Tower Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMT#NYSE">AMT</a>) rose 1.80% to $232.30.</li>
<li>Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DUK#NYSE">DUK</a>) gained 1.25%, trading at $125.59.</li>
<li>Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMGN#NASDAQ">AMGN</a>) advanced 1.18% to $313.50.</li>
</ul>
The biggest underperformers included:
<ul>
<li>Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>) dropped 7.63% to $58.24.</li>
<li>Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COF#NYSE">COF</a>) fell 6.75% to $152.97.</li>
<li>The Boeing Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) declined 6.67%, closing at $140.84.</li>
<li>Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) slid 6.47% to $20.98.</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44645681/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60-as-largest-us-tax-hike-in-60-years-hits-global-economy">JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk To 60% As &#8216;Largest US Tax Hike&#8217; In 60 Years Hits Global Economy</a></li>
</ul>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534;WATCH LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell &#x7C; Economic Outlook &#x7C; Apr 4, 2025" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wuhf8mg4C6k?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
Photo: Shuttertock

Nasdaq 100 Enters Bear Market, Dow In Correction Territory, Traders Await Fed Chair Powell's Remarks

Wall Street extends gains on Wednesday, as investors remain resilient in their risk appetite despite the looming announcement of sweeping trade tariffs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">by President Donald Trump.</a>
The president is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/wgmKYg-zK9o">scheduled to speak at 4 p.m. ET</a> on what he dubbed "Liberation Day," with expectations pointing to the imposition of tariffs around 20% on a broad range of goods.
The S&amp;P 500 is up 0.8%, aiming for what could become its third consecutive positive session. The Nasdaq 100 is also rebounding strongly, rising 1.1%, while small-cap stocks outperform large caps, with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.5%.
Nearly all sectors are in the green, except defensive consumer staples. Consumer discretionary and tech lead the way in performance.
Treasury yields are on the rise, with the 30-year yield hitting 4.57%, up 5 basis points, dragging the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down by 0.7%.
The latest ADP Employment Report showed a stronger-than-expected pace of private payroll growth in March, reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite the tariff-related uncertainties.
In corporate news, The New York Times reported that Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) submitted a last-ditch bid to acquire TikTok, the popular video app, as it nears an April deadline to separate from its Chinese owner or face a potential U.S. ban. Shares of the e-commerce giant rallied 2.4%.
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3%, while gold and oil prices both gained 0.6%. Crypto sentiment remained positive, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) surging 2.5% to trade above $87,000.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices </td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,042.86</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,650.79</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,321.94</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,675.71</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.9% to $566.04.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.8% to $422.89.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rallied 1.2% to $478.34.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 1.6% to 202.75.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) outperformed, up 2.2%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) rallied over 4% despite reporting <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/04/44607859/teslas-deliveries-slide-in-q1-amid-production-setbacks-political-backlash">the worst quarterly deliveries in over two years</a> and missing analyst estimates. Investors appear to be betting on the EV giant as a potential beneficiary of trade tariffs, given its entirely U.S.-based production.</li>
<li>GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>) rose 5.9% after Susquehanna initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and $411 price target.</li>
<li>Shares of Rocket Companies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RKT#NYSE">RKT</a>) surged 12% after receiving upgrades from both Keefe Bruyette &amp; Woods and Deutsche Bank.</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44603859/bitcoin-braces-for-trump-tariff-announcement-short-term-optimism-has-the-upper-hand-experts-say">Bitcoin Braces For Trump Tariff Announcement: &#8216;Short-Term Optimism&#8217; Has The Upper Hand, Experts Say</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Mid Cap

Small Cap

Wall Street Rebounds Ahead Of Tariff Announcement, Small Caps Rally, Bitcoin Hits $87,000: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

For most of the past five years, bonds have been in a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">brutal bear market</a>. 
Since peaking on March 9, 2020, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) — the world&#8217;s largest fixed-income ETF — has lost nearly 50%, battered by tight monetary policy, strong economic <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">growth and persistent inflation.</a>
Yet, fresh reversal signals have started emerging as the first quarter of 2025 draws close.
The gauge tracking longer-dated Treasury securities jumped 4.2% in the first quarter. In contrast, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), a benchmark for U.S. stocks, fell 5% over the same period. 
That 9% performance gap favoring bonds over stocks is the largest in a single quarter since April 2020.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">TLT Notched Strongest Outperformance Over S&amp;P 500 Since Q1 2020</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-849965" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-1536x793.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Bonds Suddenly Back?</h3>
Kent Thune, a CFP and investment advisor for ETF.com, believes the answer may lie in the shifting consumer confidence. 
"Weren't bond prices supposed to fall amid the inflationary potential of tariffs, tax cuts and deportations? What explains TLT's unexpected performance? The short answer is consumer confidence," Thune said.
Indeed, consumer sentiment is deteriorating rapidly. This signals that households may begin to reduce spending. That&#8217;s a troubling sign for a U.S. economy where consumption accounts for 70% of gross domestic product.
The University of Michigan&#8217;s final consumer sentiment index for March dropped sharply to 57.0, down from 64.7 in February. This is the lowest reading since November 2022. 
"Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading and fell for the third straight month, plummeting 12% from February," said Joanne Hsu, director of the university's Surveys of Consumers.
This souring sentiment comes as longer-term inflation expectations—shaping behaviors like wage negotiations and mortgage demand—jumped to 4.1%, the highest since 1993.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its June meeting.
The Atlanta&#8217;s Fed GDPNow model estimates a 2.8% economic contraction for the year&#8217;s first quarter.
These signs of economic strain have driven investors toward bonds in a flight to safety, even as inflation concerns continue to cloud the outlook.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Not Everyone Is Buying The Recession Narrative</h3>
What if the U.S. economy avoids a recession altogether and remains resilient? After all, on Wall Street, not everyone seems rattled by soft consumer sentiment data or slowing GDP estimates.
Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44344560/horrific-report-economists-warn-consumer-confidence-collapse-signals-economic-trouble">University of Michigan's sentiment survey</a> as an "outlier." 
Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni remains skeptical the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. 
"We've been predicting none-and-done for Fed rate-cutting this year because of better-than-expected GDP growth," Yardeni said. "Now we are predicting that the Fed won't be able to ease even if the economy stagnates because higher inflation will force the Fed to stay put. The Fed Put will remain on hold."
Yardeni expects the 10-year Treasury yield to stay anchored in the 4.25%-4.75% range. That would likely cap further upside for long-duration bonds. If yields remain flat—or rise—bond performance could turn negative again.
Bravos Research highlighted in an email that Treasury yields are back to where they were in late 2022, suggesting relative stability rather than turmoil. 
"Over the last few months, bond yields have been essentially flat, not reflecting major recession concerns from bond investors," the firm said.
That's a stark contrast from past recessions like 2008 and 2001, when yields plunged sharply in anticipation of economic pain. Today, the bond market is projecting calm, not crisis.
Labor market data supports that outlook. Total U.S. employment continues to grow steadily—an unusual pattern for a pre-recession environment. "The stock market's performance is generally tied to the strength of the job market," Bravos said. "A deterioration in employment would make us more worried about a significant correction in the S&amp;P 500, similar to 2001 and 2008. But we're not seeing evidence of that right now."
With no clear signs of labor weakness or financial stress, Bravos Research views the recent stock pullback not as a warning shot but as a tactical buying opportunity.
"Given we don't believe a recession will happen in 2025, we think by year-end this will have proven to be a buying opportunity," the firm said.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44563303/gold-beats-sp-500-by-widest-margin-since-2011-as-tariff-fears-trigger-rush-to-havens">Gold Beats S&amp;P 500 By Widest Margin Since 2011 As Tariff Fears Trigger Rush To Havens</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Treasury Bonds Have Lost 50% In 5 Years, Yet Reversal Signals Emerge In Q1: Could Tariffs Actually Push TLT Higher?

Stock and ETF investors, take note. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/peter-schiff">Peter Schiff </a>sees trouble ahead and he's not mincing words. The renowned investor warns that the government and financial media are &#8220;making the same mistake again&#8221; as they did before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Schiff wrote <a href="https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1906690596640600283">on</a> X.
The culprit this time? A toxic mix of tariffs, rising interest rates and misguided Federal Reserve policies that could unleash an economic firestorm.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs: A Recipe For Inflation, Rate Hikes</h2>
Schiff argues that tariffs won't just impact trade &#8211; they'll send shockwaves through the economy. &#8220;Tariffs mean fewer goods will come into the country, and fewer dollars will go out. More money chasing fewer goods means higher domestic prices. This is an economic certainty,&#8221; he said.
For investors, that translates to higher inflation, a weaker consumer and pressure on corporate margins.
But it doesn't stop there. &#8220;Lower trade deficits will result in fewer dollars being recycled into U.S. bonds, sending long-term interest rates higher.&#8221; With higher rates, borrowing costs rise for businesses and consumers alike, slowing growth and putting pressure on stocks—especially high-flying tech names.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44309742/recession-watch-small-caps-sound-the-alarm-but-credit-markets-shrug">Recession Watch: Small Caps Sound The Alarm, But Credit Markets Shrug</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fed To The Rescue? Not So Fast</h2>
Schiff sees the Federal Reserve making the wrong move when the economy starts showing signs of strain. &#8220;The Fed will respond to this &#8216;unexpected&#8217; economic weakness with rate cuts, ignoring the surge in consumer prices as a transitory effect of tariffs.&#8221; 
Translation? Inflation won't just persist &#8211; it could spiral. And if the Fed resorts to quantitative easing (QE) again, Schiff warns, &#8220;throwing gasoline on an already burning inflation fire&#8221; could create a crisis far worse than 1970s-style stagflation.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What It Means For Investors</h2>
If Schiff's prediction plays out, stock investors should brace for turbulence. High-growth and rate-sensitive sectors like technology, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), could face pressure. On the other hand, inflation-resistant assets &#8211; such as:
Commodities, as tracked by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBC#NYSE">DBC</a>); Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), and select energy stocks &#8211; may become safe havens.
Bond investors and those invested in popular Treasury tracking ETFs such as iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) and the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) beware: rising long-term rates could send Treasury prices tumbling.
Meanwhile, a &#8220;weaker dollar and larger budget deficits&#8221; could mean international ETFs and hard assets outperform U.S. equities.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is This The Next 2008?</h2>
Schiff isn't predicting a simple market correction &#8211; he's warning of something much worse. &#8220;This will not be 1970s-style stagflation. It will be something much worse.&#8221; 
If history is about to repeat itself, as he suggests, investors who ignore the warning signs could be caught in the fire. The question is: Are you ready?
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44456554/trade-wars-fed-moves-and-a-40-recession-risk-is-your-portfolio-ready">Trade Wars, Fed Moves And A 40% Recession Risk &#8211; Is Your Portfolio Ready?</a></li>
</ul>
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PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

Peter Schiff Sounds The Alarm: 'Same Mistake Again' Could Trigger Economic Firestorm

A major credit rating firm said Wednesday that the U.S. economy is on track for a marked slowdown in 2025, even as inflation stays stubbornly high <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">amid ongoing tariff effects.</a>
The good news? A full-blown recession is still not the central scenario, easing fears that have permeated in recent weeks among investors.
In its latest quarterly outlook, S&amp;P Global said it expects real gross domestic product growth to fall to 1.9% in both 2025 and 2026, a sharp decline from the post-pandemic rebound pace of 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024. The agency anticipates growth to stabilize near 2.0% annually thereafter, marking a return to a slower long-run trajectory.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Driving The Slowdown?</h3>
A mix of weaker household income, receding fiscal support, higher interest rates, and a shifting trade environment marked by rising tariffs is dampening growth momentum. 
S&amp;P Global said these forces are acting in tandem to squeeze consumers and weigh on private-sector investment, while also increasing the cost of doing business across the economy.
The firm flagged that upcoming policy moves, including those from the Trump administration, could drag on growth before any stimulus effects from tax cuts or deregulation fully materialize. 
The front-loaded nature of "regressive" measures—such as tariff hikes and potential federal workforce layoffs—has already led to a soft patch earlier than initially expected.
&#8220;President Trump&#8217;s April 2 date for reciprocal tariffs will keep financial market trading choppy,&#8221; the report said. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Labor Market Set To Cool</h3>
S&amp;P expects the labor market to lose steam by mid-2025, with monthly job gains falling below 100,000, down from the current three-month average of 200,000. 
The unemployment rate, now at 4.1%, is projected to rise to 4.6% by mid-2026.
"Public sector hiring, which significantly supported payroll growth in the past two years, is likely to slow down," the report said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is A Recession Likely?</h3>
While the tone of the report suggests caution, S&amp;P is not predicting a recession as its base-case scenario. 
&#8220;We don&#8217;t see a recession as the most likely outcome yet,&#8221; the report said. 
The firm maintains a 25% probability of a downturn occurring within the next 12 months, citing growing uncertainty and cautious behavior from both consumers and businesses as factors that could tip the balance.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation And Interest Rates: What To Expect</h3>
Inflation isn't going away soon. While the Federal Reserve continues to target a 2% inflation rate, S&amp;P now sees price pressures lingering due to tariff pass-through effects. 
Core personal consumption expenditures—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—are expected to reach 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, pushed higher by rising supply chain costs and service price adjustments that have lagged goods inflation.
That said, S&amp;P views the tariff-induced inflation bump as temporary, expecting price growth to gradually ease to 2% by 2027.
In terms of monetary policy, the firm forecasts the Fed will cut interest rates only once in 2025, by 25 basis points, ending the year with a federal funds rate between 4.00%-4.25%. 
For longer-term rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to hover around 4.0%-4.5% in 2025, gradually falling toward 3.4%-3.6% by 2027-2028. 
Should bond yields drop as forecasted, Treasury investments such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) stand to deliver positive returns.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Could Turn The Tide?</h3>
S&amp;P sees growth rebounding in 2026, albeit after a slow start. That recovery is expected to come from easing trade tensions, further Fed policy support, and a stronger external backdrop, including improved eurozone demand that could boost U.S. exports.
Still, the path forward is far from certain. 
The firm noted a "high degree of unpredictability" around how the U.S. administration will implement its economic agenda—particularly when it comes to tariffs—and what ripple effects that might create for global supply chains and credit markets.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/25/03/44493432/elevated-consumer-inflation-expectations-raise-the-bar-for-possible-rate-cuts-this-year-goldman-sachs">Elevated Consumer Inflation Expectations &#8216;Raise The Bar For Possible Rate Cuts This Year&#8217;: Goldman Sachs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: janews/Shutterstock.com

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