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ProShares Ultra S&P500

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The Fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the Daily Target. The Index is designed to measure the performance of the 500 largest companies listed and domiciled in the U.S. The top 500 companies based on market capitalization are included in the Index. These companies are then weighted based on market capitalization. The Indexs composition and the assigned weights are reevaluated every September with additional weight adjustments in March, June, and December. The Index is constructed and maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.

SIXTY SIX OILFIELD SER by Sixty Six Oilfield Services, Inc.

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Sunstock Inc

Wall Street is buzzing this week. A U.S. court decision has put a stop to President Donald Trump from<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45667775/trumps-tariff-refund-could-cost-us-10-billion-with-2-month-end-rebalance-impact-on-equities-in-case-of-an-appeal-uncertainty-is-back-front-and-center"> issuing broad tariffs through emergency authority</a>, and the market collectively breathed a sigh of relief. Mix that with NVIDIA Corp.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/05/45657660/nvidia-q1-highlights-china-export-ban-hits-results-but-jensen-huang-says-demand-incredibly-strong">solid earnings</a> and a temporary ceasefire in the U.S.-EU tariff battle, and you have the ideal recipe for a high-beta breakout.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">High-beta ETFs</a>, celebrated for their magnified swings, are perfect for bullish markets such as this one. When sentiment surges among investors, these funds don&#8217;t tread, they run. To explain in numbers, a beta of more than one means the ETF is more volatile than the market in general.
For a trader wanting to catch a ride on this short-term wave of momentum, consider the following three high-beta ETFs that may perform well in the coming week:
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Invesco S&amp;P 500 High Beta ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPHB#NYSE">SPHB</a>)</h1>
Beta: 1.42 SPHB monitors 100 of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s highest-beta stocks over the last year. It&#8217;s a handpicked portfolio of the market&#8217;s most volatile performers when the bulls are running.
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>
Sector Exposure: Heavy on tech (42.2%), followed by industrials and consumer discretionary.
Assets Under Management: $379.3 million
Expense Ratio: 0.25%
Why Now: Tech is leading the rebound, especially on Nvidia's AI blowout. The easing of trade tensions adds to the momentum of cyclical sectors.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/05/45679047/nvda-tsla-turbocharge-qqq-surge-toward-best-month-since-2023">NVDA, TSLA Turbocharge QQQ Surge Toward Best Month Since 2023</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">ProShares Ultra S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SSO#NYSE">SSO</a>)</h1>
Beta: 2.04 For those who want to go big or go home, SSO provides double the S&amp;P 500 daily return. It&#8217;s not for the faint of heart, but it&#8217;s a powerful weapon when momentum is decidedly upward. The strategy is to leverage derivatives to multiply S&amp;P 500 returns by 2x.
<ol start="2" class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>
Expense Ratio: 0.89%
Why Now: With tariff concerns on the wane and the AI bubble again in vogue, the S&amp;P 500 may have more to gain. SSO allows traders to amplify that gain.
Warning: This is a trade tool, not a long-term friend. The compounding effect can warp returns over longer holding periods.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FBCG#BATS">FBCG</a>)</h1>
Beta: 1.31 FBCG leans into growth heavy-hitters, mega-cap tech names that tend to be more volatile but pay off when the market goes risk-on.
<ol start="3" class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>
Top Holdings: Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Nvidia, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>): essentially, &#8220;The Avengers&#8221; of technology.
Expense Ratio: 0.59%
Why Now? With Nvidia&#8217;s AI-driven ramp-up igniting another wave in tech, FBCG is poised to profit. This ETF equates high-beta growth with a quality screen.
As opposed to leveraged plays, FBCG provides a more balanced strategy with a growth tilt, perfect when you&#8217;re optimistic but not fond of whiplash.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Bottom Line</h1>
With Trump&#8217;s tariff strategy running into the legal brick wall, Nvidia wowing the Street and transatlantic trade tensions being put on hold, risk appetite is back in play. For investors who want to bet on the rally, these three high-beta ETFs are presenting a trio of flavors of aggressive exposure to an increasingly bullish market.
Just keep in mind: what goes up quickly… can come down just as quickly. It is wise to don your seatbelt and trade safely.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/05/45676519/bullion-to-blockchain-why-gen-z-may-never-buy-a-gold-etf">Bullion To Blockchain: Why Gen Z May Never Buy A Gold ETF</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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3 High Beta ETFs To Consider As Wall Street Welcomes Court Ruling On Tariffs, Tech Rebound

News

Stock Split

TQQQ

UPRO

ProShares ETFs CSM, ROM, SSO, TQQQ, UCC, UPRO Trading Thursday Following Effect of 2:1 Forward Stock Split; UGE Trading Following Effect of 4:1 Forward Stock Split

Leveraged ETFs have traditionally been the domain of aggressive traders, hedge funds, and other institutional investors with an above-average risk tolerance.&nbsp;

	They have been introduced in variations that are typically two or three times the daily underlying or inverse price movement of a heavily traded index.

	Many of these established funds, such as the ProShares Ultra S&amp;P500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>), may be too risky for most conventional investors because the gains and losses are significantly magnified.&nbsp;

	However, Direxion Investments is seeking to bridge the gap between a boring index fund and a highly leveraged ETF with the release of four new &ldquo;lightly leveraged&rdquo; products.&nbsp; Last week marked the debut of the following funds:
<ul>
<li>
		Direxion Daily S&amp;P 500 Bull 1.25x Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/llsp#NYSE">LLSP</a>)</li>
<li>
		Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 1.25x Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/llsc#NYSE">LLSC</a>)</li>
<li>
		Direxion Daily FTSE Developed Markets Bull 1.25x Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lldm#NYSE">LLDM</a>)</li>
<li>
		Direxion Daily FTSE Emerging Markets Bull 1.25x Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/llem#NYSE">LLEM</a>)</li>
</ul>

	The new ETFs cover U.S. large cap, small cap, foreign developed, and emerging market stocks with a leverage ratio of 1.25x the underlying index.&nbsp;

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/15/01/5143503/silver-etfs-attempting-to-break-out-in-2015">Silver ETFs Attempting To Break Out In 2015</a></bzrelatedlink>

	The goal is to create a fund with more zip than a traditional index but with less downside risk than traditional leverage products.&nbsp;

	The net expense ratio of these new ETFs is 0.50 percent, which is far cheaper than the 0.95 percent management fee of funds such as the Direxion Daily S&amp;P 500 Bull ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spxl#NYSE">SPXL</a>).&nbsp;

	Investors considering a leveraged ETF for their portfolio should be aware that the underlying holdings are rebalanced daily.&nbsp; Thus, the cumulative return of the ETF over longer periods of time may not coincide with the stated leverage factor versus directly owning the basket of stocks in the index.&nbsp;

	By their nature, these new lightly leveraged funds should have lower compounding risk over time than a traditional 2x or 3x ETF.&nbsp;

	The addition of these four new funds bring the total menu of Direxion ETFs to 60, with the majority focused on 3x leverage across a wide span of asset classes, countries, and sectors.

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

New ETFs

Emerging Market ETFs

Trading Ideas

LLDM

LLEM

LLSC

LLSP

SPXL

Direxion Debuts Lightly Leveraged ETFs

This week, BlackRock (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/blk#NYSE">BLK</a>) CEO Laurence Fink was <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-28/blackrock-s-fink-says-leveraged-etfs-could-blow-up-industry.html">quoted as saying</a> that leveraged ETFs are a structural problem and have the potential to &ldquo;blow up&rdquo; the industry.&nbsp;

	BlackRock is the parent company of ETF powerhouse iShares, which does not currently operate any leveraged ETFs.&nbsp; In fact, Fink went so far as to say that BlackRock &ldquo;would never do a leveraged ETF.&quot;

	While many industry experts agree that leveraged ETFs are not for the faint of heart, not many have been quoted as saying that they will cause catastrophic effects.&nbsp; They are generally regarded as aggressive investment vehicles for disciplined investors with short-term time horizons.&nbsp;

	The use of leverage within an ETF can compound both positive and negative returns very quickly.&nbsp; This is because the daily returns of the underlying index are magnified by two or three times, depending on the type of ETF.

	For example, the ProShares Ultra S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>) seeks investment results that correspond to two times the daily performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index. &nbsp;&nbsp;

	Simply put, if the S&amp;P 500 Index increases one percent in a single day, SSO will jump two percent.&nbsp; There are also a wide variety of inverse leveraged ETFs from ProShares and DirexionShares as well.&nbsp;

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/14/05/4594090/3-mlp-etfs-to-boost-portfolio-yield">3 MLP ETFs To Boost Portfolio Yield</a></bzrelatedlink>

	With total assets of over $3 billion in SSO, there is clearly demand for these fast-moving vehicles.&nbsp;&nbsp; However, there are also issues that can crop up when traders hold these vehicles for too long.&nbsp;

	One common issue with leverage is how its compounding effect erodes the tracking efficiency of the underlying index over time. Leveraged ETFs are only designed to track the daily price movement of a specified index. Thus, investors should not expect that a 10 percent move in an index for a 2x leveraged ETF over a three-month time frame is going to correlate perfectly to a 20 percent return.

	In addition, many leveraged ETFs use swaps, futures and other esoteric means to achieve their stated objectives.&nbsp; These types of non-traditional investments are much different than a <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/14/05/4579252/transport-etfs-keep-on-trucking-higher">conventional basket of underlying</a> stocks or bonds.&nbsp;

	Each investor should consider these risks before implementing a leveraged ETF in their portfolio.&nbsp; However, the majority of these funds have had a successful history of accomplishing their stated goals and rebalancing their underlying holdings on a daily basis to realize liquidity.

Are Leveraged ETFs Really Going To 'Blow Up'?

It is safe to say the current stock market is frustrating.

	But unlike 2013, when the environment favored the bulls for the vast majority of the year -- and it was the bears that wound up pounding their heads up against the wall -- in 2014, both teams appear to be experiencing some frustration.

	The bottom line is simple: From a big-picture standpoint, stocks won&#39;t go up, and yet the S&amp;P 500 can&#39;t seem to go down either.

	Related: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/general/education/14/05/4559239/cheer-up-a-portfolio-pep-talk-for-investors">Cheer Up! A Portfolio Pep Talk For Investors</a>

	While the S&amp;P 500 finished Friday at a fresh all-time high, it did so by the slimmest of margins. Take a look at the chart below. Is that a breakout? Or simply a set-up for another in a long string of &quot;fake-outs&quot;?

	S&amp;P 500 Daily&nbsp;

	<img alt="spx_daily_5-26-14.png" src="/files/images/2014/May/27/spx_daily_5-26-14.png" style="width: 540px; height: 398px;" />

	Usually, when such a question occurs, it pays to review the charts of the other major indices. In short, if the DJIA, NASDAQ and/or Russell 2000 confirm the move in question, it is safe to assume that a breakout is a breakout. However, in this case, nothing is clear.

	Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily&nbsp;

	<img alt="djia_daily_5-26-14.png" height="461" src="/files/images/2014/May/27/djia_daily_5-26-14.png" width="625" />

	In looking at the chart of the Dow, it is clear that there is no breakout confirmation evident. In fact, there is still some important resistance overhead to deal with.

	The NASDAQ, which was impacted by the recent momentum meltdown couldn&#39;t be farther from confirming an upside breakout either.

	NASDAQ Daily&nbsp;

	<img alt="nas_daily_5-26-14.png" height="461" src="/files/images/2014/May/27/nas_daily_5-26-14.png" width="625" />

	However, an argument can be made that the downtrend in the NASDAQ may have ended. In order to confirm that the worst of the decline is behind it, the NASDAQ will need to continue to move up in the coming week and, perhaps more importantly, NOT fall back below the 4150 area.

	On the other hand, the chart of the micro-caps, which bore the brunt of the mo-mo meltdown, continues to look ugly.

	iShares Micro-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iwc#NYSE">IWC</a>) Daily&nbsp;

	<img alt="iwc_daily_5-26-14.png" height="461" src="/files/images/2014/May/27/iwc_daily_5-26-14.png" width="625" />

	However, those seeing the glass as half-full will argue a base could be forming in the micro-cap space. And as one may recall, the key to the overall market moving up from here is for the micro-caps to STOP going down. They don&#39;t necessarily need to rebound. No, these beaten-down stocks just have to stabilize.

	So Is The Environment Improving, Or Not?

	Whenever this type of environment occurs, it is usually best to put one&#39;s emotions aside and review the readings of some market indicators. In short, it can be quite helpful to look at cold, hard numbers when things are &quot;iffy&quot;.

	To be clear, it is a good practice to review market indicators on a daily basis. However, looking at indicators over different time frames is an important way to diversify one&#39;s analysis.

	The &quot;State&quot; of the Market Environment

	Although there are some overlapping areas, the Weekly Environment Model is comprised of ten individual indicators or models. These ten can then be broken down into the following categories: tape, trend, sentiment, economic, monetary and the overall risk environment.

	In terms of weighting, the majority of the model weight is given to tape and trend indicators (60 percent) while the &quot;external&quot; factors account for 40 percent of the model. This fits with the view that one&#39;s overall objective is to stay in line with what the market IS doing.

	In short, whenever there are questions, the price/tape action of the market should always be viewed as the final arbiter. In addition, tape and trend indicators serve as excellent stop-loss signals for those times when the market&#39;s moves diverge from the &quot;logic&quot; of things like economics, news or earnings.

	Due to changes in data availability, the overall model was reworked at the end of 2011. However, the live performance hasn&#39;t been too bad. In 2012, using the leveraged ProShares Ultra S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>) when the model was positive, the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sh#NYSE">SH</a>) on negative signals, and a cash equivalent on neutral signals, the test of the model would have produced a return of 46.2 percent (compared to the S&amp;P 500 cash index return of 16.3 percent).

	Then in 2013, the model&#39;s return would have been 38.30 percent, versus S&amp;P 500&#39;s return of 33.26 percent. So while the history isn&#39;t long, it does seem worth watching what this model has to say each week.

	Since the explanation of the models and indicators that make up the weekly market environment model as well as the analysis of the current readings covers a fair amount of ground, the review will be broken up over the week.

	The Trend Indicators

	The weekly environment model contains three indicators that are dedicated to the trend of the overall market. For starters, it rates the&nbsp;short-term trend&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500. For the purposes of this model, short term is defined as between five and 15 trading days.

	Next is the&nbsp;intermediate-term trend&nbsp;of the market. Here the focus is primarily on the market relative to its 10-week weighted moving average (which is moved forward two periods). And finally, a&nbsp;cycle composite is examined, which is combination of the one-year seasonal, four-year presidential and ten-year decennial cycles.

	Currently, the short-term trend rating is moderately positive, as the S&amp;P is above its short-term moving averages, which themselves are also moving higher at this time. See the first chart in this report if there are any doubts about this rating.

	The rating of the intermediate-term trend is positive. A quick peek of the S&amp;P 500 weekly chart versus its 10-week moving average should confirm this rating.

	S&amp;P 500 Weekly&nbsp;

	<img alt="spx_weekly_5-26-14.png" height="500" src="/files/images/2014/May/27/spx_weekly_5-26-14.png" width="625" />

	And finally, the cycle composite suggests that stocks should move higher next week. So the rating for the cycle composite is positive.

	When assigning a score of +1 for positive readings, 0 for neutral readings and -1 for negative readings, the overall rating for the trend components comes in at +3 for the upcoming week.

	The Tape Indicators

	The weekly environment model incorporates three &quot;tape&quot; indicators. These are the indicators that reveal the internal health of the market and helps to determine the &quot;oomph&quot; behind a move in either direction. The tape indicators include a&nbsp;breadth-confirmation system, a review of the&nbsp;supply/demand volume and a model that rates the&nbsp;technical health of more than 100 S&amp;P industry groups.

	Currently the tape indicators remain fairly strong. The breadth-confirmation system is positive as both the trend of the market and of the stock-only advance/decline line are above their appropriate smoothings.

	Next, the supply/demand volume relationship indicator is neutral at this time. Although demand volume remains well above supply at this stage, the trend of demand volume is down.

	And finally, the model that rates the technical health of more than 100 industry groups is moderately positive at this time. So, while these indicators are all intermediate-term or longer in nature, the group as a whole is positive.

	The bottom line is that both the trend and tape components of the overall environment model are currently positive - albeit not strongly so.

	Positions in stocks mentioned: SPY

Education

Long Ideas

General

Does The S&P Have Anywhere To Move?

Okay, let&#39;s break it down.

	It&#39;s August. It&#39;s the height of the vacation season. The markets are going sideways. Volume is very light (SPY volume has been below average for 27 straight trading days).

	Earnings season has just about ended. There hasn&#39;t been an important piece of economic data in a week (although that will change soon). The computers have been in charge on an intraday basis. Sentiment is complacent at best and overly optimistic at worst. Valuations are debatable. And in short, it just &quot;feels&quot; like something bad is about to happen.

	Whenever this type of environment occurs, emotions should be put aside and market indicators should be examined. There is just something cathartic about looking at some cold, hard numbers when things are &quot;iffy.&quot;

	Looking at indicators over different time frames is an important way to diversify analysis. As such, both daily and weekly market environment models are utilized. Today, the intermediate term week long models will be examined.

	The &quot;State&quot; of the Market Environment

	Although there are some overlapping areas, the Weekly Environment Model is comprised of ten individual indicators or models. These ten can then be broken down into the following categories: tape, trend, sentiment, economic, monetary and the overall risk environment. In terms of weighting, the majority of the model weight is given to tape and trend indicators (60 percent) while the &quot;external&quot; factors account for 40 percent of the model.
This fits with the view that the price/tape action of the market should be the final arbiter of the action. In addition, tape and trend indicators serve as excellent stop-loss signals for those times when the market&#39;s moves diverges from the &quot;logic&quot; of things like economics, news or earnings.

	To give an incentive to continue reading, let&#39;s first review the performance of this particular model. Due to changes in data availability, the overall model was reworked at the end of 2011. However, the live performance hasn&#39;t been too bad. In 2012, using the leveraged ProShares Ultra S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>) when the model is positive, the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sh#NYSE">SH</a>) on negative signals, and a cash equivalent on neutral signals, the test of the model would have produced a return of +46.2 percent (compared to the S&amp;P 500 cash index return of +16.3 percent).

	And then, so far in 2013 (through August 9), the model&#39;s return would be +25.4 percent (versus S&amp;P 500: +19.7 percent). As such, the cumulative total return would have been +83.3 percent for the model since 2012 as compared to +34.5 percent for the S&amp;P 500. So, while its history isn&#39;t long, this model is watched closely each week.

	Since the explanation of the models and indicators that make up the weekly market environment model as well as the analysis of the current readings covers a fair amount of ground, we will break the review up this week. This morning we will take a look at the state of tape and trend indicators.

	The Trend Indicators

	Let&#39;s start with the easy stuff - the trend indicators. The weekly environment model contains three indicators that are dedicated to the trend of the overall market. For starters, the short-term trend of the S&amp;P 500 is rated. For the purposes of this model, short term is defined as between five and fifteen trading days.

	Next is the intermediate-term trend of the market. Here the focus is primarily on the market relative to its 10-week weighted moving average (which we move forward two periods). And finally, the&nbsp;cycle composite&nbsp;is examined, which is combination of the one-year seasonal, four-year presidential, and ten-year decennial cycles.

	Currently, the short-term trend rating is Neutral, for fairly obvious reasons. However, the rating of the intermediate-term trend is clearly positive. A quick peek of the S&amp;P 500 weekly chart versus its 10-week moving average should confirm this rating. And finally, the cycle composite suggests that stocks could struggle a bit next week.
So, the rating for the cycle composite is moderately negative. When assigning a score of +1 for positive readings, 0 for neutral readings and -1 for negative readings, the overall rating for our trend components is dead neutral for the upcoming week.

	The Tape Indicators

	The weekly environment model incorporates three &quot;tape&quot; indicators. Momentum-oriented indicators are included in this category. These are the indicators that reveal the internal health of the market and help to determine the &quot;oomph&quot; behind a move in either direction.
The tape indicators include a breadth-confirmation system, a review of the supply/demand volume, and a model that rates the technical health of more than 100 S&amp;P industry groups.

	Currently the tape indicators remain fairly strong. The breadth-confirmation system is positive as both the trend of the market and of the stock-only advance/decline line are above their appropriate smoothings. The supply/demand volume relationship indicator is also quite positive currently as demand volume remains well above supply at this stage.
And finally, the model that rates the technical health of more than 100 industry groups is moderately positive at this time. So, while these indicators are all intermediate-term or longer in nature, the group as a whole is positive.

	Spoiler Alert: While there are still a handful of model components left to review, the overall rating for the weekly environment model is currently moderately positive. This suggests to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt should things get sloppy in the near-term.
To clarify, this model does not attempt to &quot;predict&quot; what is going to happen in the market. No, the goal is to first identify and then stay on the right side of what &quot;is&quot; happening in the current environment.

	Current Market Drivers

	Success comes from understanding the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if one can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; it is unlikely one will be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. listed below are some of the driving forces of the current market (listed in order of importance).

	&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1. The State of Fed/Global Central Bank Policies 
	&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2. The Outlook for the U.S./Global Economy 
	&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3. The State of the Budget (starting to come up on traders&#39; radar screens) 

	The State of the Trend

	It is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. Short-term is 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term is 3 weeks to 3 months and long-term is 3 months or more. Below are current ratings of the three primary trends:

	Short-Term Trend: Neutral 
	(Chart below is S&amp;P 500 daily over past 1 month)

	<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1m/^gspc" />

	Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive 
	(Chart below is S&amp;P 500 daily over past 6 months)

	<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/^gspc" />

	Long-Term Trend: Positive 
	(Chart below is S&amp;P 500 daily over past 12 months)

	<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/^gspc" />

	Key Technical Areas:

	Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the important levels to watch today:
<ul>
<li>
		Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&amp;P 500: 1680 </li>
<li>
		Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 1710 </li>
</ul>

	The State of the Tape

	Momentum indicators are designed to determine the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any &quot;oomph&quot; behind the move. Below are a handful of indicators relating to the market&#39;s &quot;mo&quot;...
<ul>
<li>
		Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator: Moderately Positive </li>
<li>
		Price Thrust Indicator: Positive </li>
<li>
		Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral </li>
<li>
		Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral </li>
<li>
		Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Positive </li>
<li>
		Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Moderately Positive </li>
</ul>

	The Early Warning Indicators

	Markets travel in cycles. Thus one must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide &quot;early warning signs&quot; that a trend change may be near.
<ul>
<li>
		Overbought/Oversold Condition: The S&amp;P 500 is neutral from a short-term perspective and is low neutral from an intermediate-term point of view.</li>
<li>
		Market Sentiment: The primary sentiment model is low neutral .</li>
</ul>

	&nbsp;

	The State of the Market Environment

	One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market&#39;s &quot;big picture&quot; environment in terms of risk versus reward because different market environments require different investing strategies. To help identify the current environment, we look to the longer-term State of the Markets Model. This model is designed to determine when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model reveals whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.

	Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Positive - The weekly model is positive. This suggests to continue to favor the bulls.

	If you are looking for a disciplined, rules-based system to help guide your market exposure, check out <a href="http://stateofthemarkets.marketfy.com/product/daily-decisions/">The Daily Decision System</a>.

	Turning To This Morning...

	It appears that the bears will get another shot at getting something going to the downside this morning. The much weaker than expected GDP data out of Japan as well as some renewed worry about yet another bailout in Greece is getting the blame for the mood. While Chinese markets were higher and neither the Japanese market nor the European bourses are down hard, U.S. futures traders are not happy in the early going as it appears that the bears may be threatening a break below important technical support at the open.

	Pre-Game Indicators

	Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

	Major Foreign Markets: 
	- Japan: -0.71% 
	- Hong Kong: +2.13% 
	- Shanghai: +2.38% 
	- London: -0.29% 
	- Germany: -0.48% 
	- France: -0.23% 
	- Italy: -0.27% 
	- Spain: -0.29%

	Crude Oil Futures: -$0.34 to $103.63

	Gold: +$12.40 to $1324.60

	Dollar: lower against the yen, higher vs. euro and pound

	10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.592%

	Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value): 
	- S&amp;P 500: -9.02 
	- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -60 
	- NASDAQ Composite: -12.42

	Thought For The Day...

	&ldquo;If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader&rdquo;-John Quincy Adams

	&nbsp;

	Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

	<img src="http://stateofthemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/DDM-2013-100x1511.jpg" />

	David D. Moenning 
	Founder and Chief Investment Strategist 
	StateoftheMarkets.com

	Positions in stocks mentioned: none

	Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them in the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets. <a href="http://stateofthemarkets.marketfy.com/product/daily-decisions/"> The Daily Decision System Can Help</a>

	For up to the minute updates on the market&#39;s driving forces, <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/StateDave">Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave</a> (Twitter is the new Ticker Tape)

	&nbsp;
<hr />

	&nbsp;

	The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, founder of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning&#39;s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of TopStockPortfolios and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment. 

	Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided. 

	The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided &ldquo;as is&rdquo; without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed. 

	The information contained in our websites and publications is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer. 

	Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice. 

	Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

What Do The Market Models Say?

Deutsche Bank upgrades ProShares Ultra S&amp;P500 ETF (ETF: SSO) from Sell to Hold and maintains $8.75 PT.

Upgrades

Analyst Ratings

Deutsche Bank Upgrades ProShares Ultra S&P500 ETF to Hold, Maintains $8.75 PT

Thought For The Day... Always and never are two words you should always remember never to use. - Wendell Johnson

It is safe to say that all eyes are on Cyprus Monday morning as the proposed tax on savings accounts (10 percent on accounts over 100K euros and 6.75 percent on accounts below 100K) has brought the European debt crisis back into focus. As usual, the key here is the situation with the banks. 

First, the banks in Cyprus. Second, the banks in Greece and then the eurozone. And finally, the banks around the globe. 

Who has lent what to whom? Which banks have exposure to big losses? And won't a tax on bank deposits just mean that savers will take their money and run? And then if other countries decide to adopt this type of tax in order to get help from the eurozone, aren't bank runs a serious possibility? In short, this is what today will be all about. 

But since the banks are closed in Cyprus today (and may stay closed for a while) and the bottom line is the proposal to basically grab money from the citizens of Cyprus still needs to be approved by the country's Parliament, the severity of the current problem remains unknown. (Note that new proposals such as Russia coming to the rescue in exchange for oil/natural gas exploration rights are coming fast and furious and the government in Cyprus is already backing off of the "levy" proposal to some degree.) 

So, while we will once again be focused on the headlines, comments, and rumors out of Europe, I think it is okay to return our attention to the bigger picture of the markets this morning.

Back To The Big Picture: How To Play The Coming Correction

Although the DJIA finished lower on Friday for the first time in eleven sessions (and was red for only the second time in the last 14 days), there was some good news. First, while everybody on the planet knows that this rally is a bit extended and vulnerable, the bears didn't really get much of anything going on Friday (and it remains to be seen how much damage the Cyprus situation will actually cause). 

And second, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/13/03/3420975/does-the-dows-winning-streak-mean-anything">as detailed on Thursday</a>, a 10-day winning streak on the Dow is (a) rare (17 prior occurrences since 1900) and (b) a relatively good harbinger for the bulls.

To review briefly, if the DJIA winds up with a gain over the next two weeks, history shows that the returns for 10-day periods after a 10-day winning streak are more than six times the average return for all 10-day periods. And if the DJIA can finish higher over the next month, the average return is five times higher than normal. 

Then the returns for the next eight weeks (assuming the Dow is up for the period) have averaged +5.71 percent, or more than 5.4 times the average 8-week return. In short, THIS is what market momentum is all about. In other words, when the bulls get on a roll like this, they tend to stay on a roll.

But everybody on the planet is nervous right now - especially now that Cyprus appears to be blowing up. The macro bears (including more than a few big hedge fund names) are more than a little concerned about those short positions that have been costing them big money this year. And then the bulls are nervous because everybody knows how this type of joyride to the upside tends to end. 

So, now that the Dow's 10-day winning streak is over and the S&amp;P 500 is within a stone's throw from a new high, it is probably time to take one of two tacks. (1) Investors can decide that they've got history on their side and bet that any corrective action that appears in the near-term will be short and shallow. Or (2) you can be proactive and decide to prepare for the coming bear raid.

For those choosing option one, there really isn't much to do here. Probably the biggest thing is to be prepared to watch the action closely during the upcoming correction. You will need to be on the lookout for signs that your thesis is wrong. We'd suggest watching key support levels such as 1480 on the S&amp;P 500. 

A breach of this level would mean that the correction would be exceeding the five percent level (from Friday's closing price, that is), which would be a very simplistic method of confirming that the decline may be turning into something more than a garden-variety pullback within an ongoing bull move.

For those choosing option two, you will probably want to start taking proactive action - and soon. The reason for taking action sooner rather than later is simple: The next decline will likely involve a negative catalyst or trigger. As such, once the catalyst occurs, EVERYONE looking for such a trigger will jump on the short side at the same time. Thus, the time available to react to the move is likely to be very limited. 

Five Proactive Methods for the Upcoming Correction

1. Reduce Your Beta

The first way to play for the correction that nearly everybody in the game is looking for is to reduce the beta in your holdings. In English, this means that it is probably time to take your foot off the gas pedal a bit.

According to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance)">Wikipedia</a>, "beta" is defined as follows: In finance, the Beta of a portfolio is a number describing the correlated volatility of an asset in relation to the volatility of the benchmark that said asset is being compared to. This benchmark is generally the overall financial market and is often estimated via the use of representative indices, such as the S&amp;P 500.

If a portfolio strategy that you employ tends to outperform - especially during rising markets - then it is a safe bet that said strategy has a fairly high beta. The idea here is to reduce the beta of the strategy by raising some cash with the goal being to bring the beta down to 1 or below. 

Here's an example. In our "Insider Buying Strategy" we buy stocks that corporate insiders (employees that are required to notify the government when they buy their company's stock) are buying - but only when they are buying heavily. (In short, this tells us that something is "up" with the company.) We take a concentrated approach in this portfolio, meaning that each holding is a 10 percent position. Such an approach has performed quite well and has outperformed the market handily. 

However, we have also learned over time that such a concentrated approach will be much more volatile than the market - especially during corrections.

So, given this knowledge and the fact that the market is very overbought, we have been raising cash recently. Currently we have more than 30 percent on the sidelines. This is due in part to the market environment and the fact that there have been very few stocks that meet our buy criteria of late. 

The goal here is to "take the turbo" off of the portfolio for a while in an attempt to retain the healthy lead we've got on the S&amp;P index this year.

2. Put On a Hedge or Two

The second way to play is to put some hedges on in your portfolio. For the uninitiated, the idea is to buy stuff that goes up when the market goes down. Yes, this approach will indeed hurt your performance if the market roars higher from here. Thus, you need to understand that putting on a hedge is like buying homeowners insurance - it has a cost and only pays when something bad happens.

The question of how to hedge (i.e. what to buy) is tricky. A popular approach is to be "long premium" via the volatility index (aka the VIX). However, note that the ETFs designed to mimic the VIX do not do so consistently for a myriad of reasons. Thus, be very careful buying ETFs such as the VXX or the VXZ as they may not deliver what you are expecting.

You can also buy ETFs designed to hedge such as the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hdge#NYSE">HDGE</a>) or the ETRACS Fisher-Gartman Risk Off ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/off#NYSE">OFF</a>). But it is important to note that the HDGE is an actively managed ETF. Thus, the "bets" may not pay off as anticipated. In addition, before you bomb into the OFF, which is promoted by media darling Dennis Gartman, understand that this ETF is VERY thinly traded at times and that the "risk-on/risk-off" trade that was popular during 2010-2011 has become far less so these days.

But perhaps the most straightforward way to hedge a long-oriented portfolio strategy is to use inverse ETFs and/or leveraged inverse ETFs. Although there are many alternatives to choose from, my personal favorites are the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sh#NYSE">SH</a>), the ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sds#NYSE">SDS</a>), which is a leveraged ETF designed to deliver 2X the daily return of the index, and the ProShares UtraPro Short S&amp;P (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spxu#NYSE">SPXU</a>), which is a 3X leveraged short ETF.

However, given that the stated objective of these ETFs is to deliver the inverse (or some multiple thereof) on a DAILY basis, these may not be good long-term holdings. Studies show that shorting the long ETFs (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>), (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>), and (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/upro#NYSE">UPRO</a>) is a more sound approach for those comfortable with putting on actual short positions.

The strategy here is to either use cash in your portfolio to buy inverse ETF's in order to hedge the remaining long positions (which, we assume, you would want to hold onto during a garden-variety market pullback) or to sell short positions. Such an approach will produce profits in the portfolio during market declines, which should offset some or all of the losses on the remaining long positions. 

3. Sell Premium

The next idea is for those folks with stock portfolios. Assuming your portfolio is of sufficient size - meaning that you hold positions of 100 shares or more - you can "sell premium" on positions you want to continue to hold in order to produce some income for your portfolio. 

In short, the idea is to sell calls on positions you want to hold (i.e. sell a "covered call"). This approach is best when the pullback is expected to be shallow. And it is also important to note that selling covered calls may cause your long position to be "called away" if the bulls continue to run. However, this is a relatively low-risk way to help your stock portfolio weather an upcoming storm.

4. Play The Rotation Game

You can also reduce the beta in your portfolio by swapping out more volatile positions with some lower beta holdings. The idea here is to take profits on stocks that have been rocket ships lately (things like Home Depot (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hd#NYSE">HD</a>) or Google (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>)) and replace them with lower beta areas such as utilities or telecoms. 

However, it is VERY important to note that in declines - especially if they become severe - ALL stocks go down, it's just a question of degree. Thus, this approach probably provides the least amount of "defense" for your portfolio of the alternatives reviewed so far.

5. Hire a Pro (The Personal Favorite!)

Finally, you can hire a pro that specializes in long/short and/or active management strategies. This one is dear to my heart, so I'm definitely talking my book here. 

But another way to play for an upcoming correction is to hire a manager (or purchase a subscription service) that is adept at sidestepping declines and/or profiting from big corrections in the stock market, and then allocate a portion of your portfolio to this type of strategy. 

This is where my marketing team tells me that I should insert a shameless plug for our services. But, I'm not big on marketing and besides, I think you get the idea. But know that we're here to help if you are looking for some...

Follow Me on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/StateDave">@StateDave</a>

-----------------------------

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Hedge Funds

Financing

Events

Global

Economics

Markets

Movers

GOOG

HDGE

SPXU

Will Cyprus Be The Trigger? (And Ways to Play the Coming Correction)

Deutsche Bank downgrades ProShares Ultra S&amp;P500 ETF (ETF: SSO) from Hold to Sell.

Downgrades

Deutsche Bank Downgrades ProShares Ultra S&P500 ETF to Sell

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Wednesday August 22, 2012.

Keep an eye on the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/faz#NYSE">FAZ</a>).

Index play of the day: ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>).

The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) is looking good.

Emerging markets plays of the day: ProShares UltraShort Brazil (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bzq#NYSE">BZQ</a>), Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vnm#NYSE">VNM</a>) and the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>).

Forex play of the day: PowerShares DB Dollar Bearish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/udn#NYSE">UDN</a>).

Bond play of the day: Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hyd#NYSE">HYD</a>).

Sector ETFs

Short Ideas

Currency ETFs

Pre-Market Outlook

ETFs to Watch August 22, 2012 (BZQ, FAZ, HYD)

CME - S&amp;P 500 INDEX CASH– (JUNE) Daily
Near Term Trend: Positive to Neutral
Wednesday's Close: 1385.14 (- 5.70)

Ways to Play this: 


<ul><li>SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>)</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>)</li>
<li>ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sds#NYSE">SDS</a>)</li>
<li>ProShares UltraPro S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/upro#NYSE">UPRO</a>)</li></ul>

<img src="/files/images/2012/April/19/sp1.png" width="644" height="316" alt="sp1.png" />
 
UPDATE: Four weeks ago, we stated, “If the market approaches the 1410.00 region I would expect that area to be the upper limit of this move, and a retrace toward 1360.00 to follow”. 

Subsequently, the market collapsed once it hit just above 1410.00, and then retraced down to 1358.00, before bouncing higher.

We have been pretty much spot- on. In addition, I stated I would short the Index on a daily close below 1388.00- not before.

We did that on April 9th as the market settled at 1382.00. We are currently short with a daily stop close only at 1402.40. 

<img src="/files/images/2012/April/19/oil1.png" width="644" height="316" alt="oil1.png" />

NYMEX - CRUDE OIL (June) - Daily
Near Term Trend: Neutral to Negative
Wednesday's Close: $103.36 (+ $.24 cents)
 
Ways to Play – SPDR Gold TRUST (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>)
 
UPDATE: Over six weeks ago, we were clear in stating, “We still believe since a weekly settlement above $108.40 has not been posted we could see Crude retrace back toward $100.00”.
 
The price retraced to a low of $101.22, last week. 
 
Although a bounce above $105.00 took place three days ago, this market is still struggling for now. 

<img src="/files/images/2012/April/19/gold1.png" width="644" height="316" alt="gold1.png" />

NYMEX - GOLD – Daily
Near Term Trend: Negative
Wednesday's Trade: $1,642.10 (+ $3.30)
 
Ways to trade - United States Oil Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uso#NYSE">USO</a>)
 
UPDATE: Six weeks ago, as the market was trading near $1,710.00, we stated, “Overhead at $1,740.00 could hold, as the market could continue to retrace toward $1,635.00”. Since then, the low has been $1,612.40.

Three weeks ago, we clearly stated, “The challenge will be near term resistance at current levels, up to $1,694.00- resistance at the blue M.A. Line”. We were on point as the high following that statement was $1,697.00, as the market stalled and was hammered once again. &amp; volatility has died. support $1,600.00 is key
 


Editor's Note: Article and charts provided by Chart Lab Pro. Sign up for your FREE 30 day FREE Trial, use the promo code: Chartp2p8i. "The best automated platform for all level investors: <a href="http://www.chartlabpro.com">www.Chartlabpro.com</a>"

Commodities

Weekly S&P 500, Gold, and Oil Trends (USO, GLD, SPY)

We called 1275, don't get emotional. 
This past Tuesday we got news that the EcoFin (Finance Ministers) meeting was canceled for Wednesday. Then we find out from CNBC's Steve Liesman that the Ecofin meeting was actually never needed. Then it is reported, they will meet after the summit of EU leaders on Wednesday. Mid-Day Tuesday while the S&amp;P 500 was down 16 to 20 points trading in the 1230 to 1238 range, we told our readers to look for 1275 in the short term and don't fear the EU noise. This noise can make anyone insane. We told readers and members to stay the course for now and look for 1275 before reducing long positions and 1300 before selling more.
Last week, we put out an article on where we thought the S&amp;P 500 was going and the relationship between human behavior and historical price action. If you are a current reader of our publication or FREE news letter, you will recall, we were calling for 1255 on Monday the 17th with a potential parabolic move to 1300. This weekend we updated our price objective and stated we are looking for 1275 and if reached we are looking to reduce 20% of our long positions. This has been a sharp incline and would only be prudent to raise some cash at 1275.
Many of our trading and investment peers have repeatedly been non-believers in this 180 point rally off the intra-day low in the S&amp;P 500. DO NOT GET EMOTIONAL, if you are investing, emotions need to be removed from the equation. Whether the bears are right about the global fundamentals and the EU being a complete house of cards, it is irrelevant to the short term price action.
We believe this rally is purely constructed on human behavior – behavioral finance. You can see from the chart above the natural progression of human behavior in the markets: you have a cycle led by optimism, excitement, relief, anxiety, denial, panic, maximum amount of pain, and lastly, optimism. 
These human behaviors are purely based on primal survival instincts. Our theory is that we are approaching the excitement/relief phase with a now EU resolution. We will see the anxiety phase once the market questions the validity of the EU backstop package. 
So here we are, two days later hitting our price objective. For our readers, our S&amp;P 500 market call proved to be valuable. Our members received our 1275 price alert over a week ago. We also told readers to reduce some risk at 1275 in the short term. On Saturday, we told long term investors we were looking for 1300 in the short term (1 to 3 weeks) with a parabolic move. We have remained bullish since we told our members to get long the S&amp;P 500 On Sunday October 2nd at 1090. At this juncture, it would be prudent to take some profits if you caught this rally. Look to reduce risk at 1275 and 1300.
So why have we been bullish? Last week in our article, "Where is the market heading?", we demonstrated our theory on behavioral finance when applied to the current S&amp;P price action. Below is the chart we demonstrated this theory.
For our FREE S&amp;P 500 News letter visit <a href="http://www.thechartlab.com" title="www.thechartlab.com">www.thechartlab.com</a>

Intraday Update

We called 1275, don't get emotional. 

It is pretty sad when the only way to get the stock market to trade higher is by selling off the U.S. Dollar Index (DX Z1). The U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. Dollar versus six leading currencies such as the Euro 58.6%, Japanese Yen 12.6 %, Pound Sterling 11.9%, Canadian Dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, and the Swiss Franc 3.6%. When the world's reserve currency declines the major stock indexes will inflate and trade higher. Politicians continue to say that they want a strong U.S. Dollar Index, however, the Federal Reserve continues to create cash reserves at an alarming rate. Just look at how the U.S. Dollar Index has traded over the past 10 years and you will see the amount of capital that has been created over the same period.

Today, the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX Z1) are trading higher by 0.63 cents to $77.66 per contract. Traders can easily see how the the major stock indexes will trade higher when the U.S. Dollar Index declines and sells off. In other words, the stock markets are trading in an inverse lockstep relationship to the U.S. Dollar Index. This morning, the U.S. Dollar Index futures made a high around the $78.06 levels at 10:20 am EST. This was around the same time that the stock market indexes bottomed on the trading session. Every trader must keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index at this time.

Many investors have wondered what is so terrible about having a weak U.S. Dollar Index? The negative to a weak U.S. Dollar Index is higher food, and energy prices. A weak U.S. Dollar is also a direct tax on the American people, especially those that are on fixed incomes. Remember, when the U.S. Dollar declines goods that people need to survive become more expensive. 

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Technicals

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

Falling U.S. Dollar Saves The Day

The major stock indexes have soared sharply higher this afternoon. The catalyst for the rally according to the media is the fact that Germany's Angela Merkel, France's Nicolas Sarkozy, and Greece's George Papandreou all agree that Greece should be part of the European Union. Greek bond yields are now favoring that Greece will eventually have to default, however, many investors are now speculating that Europe will introduce its own form of the bank bailout plan called TARP. While this news may be positive for Greece it is really not positive for the rest of the European Union. Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and even France may need to be bailed out. This TARP program will need to be very large if this is going to work for a while.

Today, the major stock indexes in the United States bottomed out around 10:20 am EST, this was the same exact time that the U.S. Dollar Index(DXY) topped out. Once the U.S. Dollar Index began to decline and sell off the stock markets started to soar higher. Nothing has changed over the past ten years, when the U.S. Dollar Index declines the stock markets inflate and trade higher. If you look at a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index you will see that the DXY is trading in an inverse lockstep relationship to the major stock indexes since the opening bell. Every trader should be watching the U.S. Dollar Index extremely closely at this time. Should the U.S. Dollar Index begin to rally or trade higher this stock market will likely decline very quickly. It is the U.S. Dollar that moves markets, not the news that is coming out of Europe. 

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Forget The European Ménage à trois Here Is The Reason For The Rally

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke will give a speech to the Economic Club of Minneapolis. Many traders and investors are wondering if Chairman Bernanke will hint at another round of stimulus via more U.S. Treasury purchases or perhaps his latest concoction called Operation Twist.

Traders must remember that the last round of quantitative easing ended in late June 2011. Last year before the Federal Reserve implemented its latest round of stimulus called QE-2 they said the reason was because the central bank had a mandate to increase jobs. Unfortunately, the latest job results have been very limited. In the month of August, the U.S. Labor Department posted that there was no new jobs created. Many investors are simply wondering if the last QE-2 program was simply a way to further capitalize the large banks that are too big to fail.

This time around the Bernank may need to wait a while before trying to inflate the stock market and the economy back up as he did in 2009. Since 2001, the central bank of the United States has kept the Fed funds rate extremely low. Many investors can now point to the low Fed funds rate as the cause for the housing and credit bubble of 2008. It is important to note that the Federal Reserve Bank now has rates at an all time low. The Fed funds rate has been at zero to a quarter percent (0.0 – 0.25%) since December 2008.

Traders should expect some volatility after the speech this afternoon by Chairman Bernanke. All of the major stock indexes are trading higher this morning, reversing a gap lower open. Traders are obviously optimistic that Chairman Bernanke will say something that will help lift stocks and not disrupt the markets.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks.com

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

Does The Bernank Have Another Ace Up His Sleeve?

The house will be voting this evening on the John Boehner plan. There are questions on whether or not it will pass. Should it pass, the debt ceiling will be raised within days. Slight optimism is keeping this market higher today. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>) is trading at $131.59, +0.99 (+0.76%). Many investors were ready to jump out of the window yesteday, as fears of a default spread. Always avoid emotion and trade off logic. This was the key to buying longs yesterday and maximizing profits today.

Yesterday, I wrote a blog entry discussing why, how and when a budget and debt ceiling agreement would be reached. Understanding this helped avoid the fear that so many other amateur traders were swept up with. It also allowed me to enter long plays on Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bac#NYSE">BAC</a>) at $9.70, Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cree#NASDAQ">CREE</a>) at $32.15 and ProShares Ultra S&amp;P500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>) at $51.85. These were posted and time stamped to Research Center members. All three plays are rocking it today. CREE is up 10% on the day, hitting a high of the day at $34.44 after the alert to buy at $32.25. Bank of America is trading at $9.80, +0.12 (+1.24%) and the ETF SSO, which is two times long the S&amp;P 500 is trading at $52.32, +0.63 (+1.22%) after the buy alert was triggered at $51.85.

As profits continue to pile up, it is important to recognize why and how? First, avoid the Wall Street hype and focus on reality. Ignore emotion and use logic. By doing that you would clearly understand that the debt ceiling will be raised and the markets will rally. The next step is to focus on the charts and find the appropriate buy levels. This was done on all three trades yesterday. This helps maximize profit.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com

CREE

Kill Emotion Then Profit: Stock Markets Rise 

Conditions in the global economy appear to be deteriorating. Is this a temporary "<a href="http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2011/06/13/new-romney-ad-bump-in-the-road/">bump in the road,</a>" as President Obama described, or are we due for something much worse?

It is perfectly possible that the economy could turn. As of yet undiscovered technological improvements, impossible to predict, could greatly increase the global rate of productivity. It is also possible that central bankers and politicians around the world are conducting a first rate job, and that the economy will grow in the second half of the year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has predicted.

Yet, ominous clouds appear to be forming over the world's economies; it seems as if the world is teetering on the brink of collapse. 

Unfortunately, it appears as though we may be headed for a major global depression, far worse than the aftermath of 2008.

Following the crisis of 2008, the emerging markets of the world—particularly China—were able to continue to grow at an accelerated pace. The developed countries of the world, mainly the United States and Western Europe, prevented a complete break down of their economies through quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus.

In order to conduct these stimulative programs, developed nations had to take on massive debt loads. Although right-wing critics harshly objected, these programs had little affect on prices in the economy, and inflation remained subdued. Emerging economies, flush with reserves, were able to foot the bill for the fiscal programs, and they bought the U.S. dollar to prevent run-away inflation.

Yet, now it seems as though the emerging market is breaking down, while growth in the developed world has stagnated. 

China is backed into a corner. Despite raising interest rates and reserve requirements, inflation is spiraling out of control in the economy. At this point, the Chinese may have no choice but to pull their yuan off its U.S. dollar peg. Migrant workers, struggling to afford food, have begun to riot in China. In terms of brutality, the Chinese government can hang with the best of them, but at some point it seems inevitable that the protests will spiral out of control.

Of course, if the <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/commodities/11/06/1146695/chinese-could-alter-entire-forex-market-in-next-few-weeks">Chinese pull their peg</a>, their currency is likely to appreciate significantly. That might put a stop to rampant inflation, but it will effectively make all those factories in China designed to produce American goods worthless overnight. If the price of Chinese manufactured toys doubles, many Americans may be unable to afford them. The Chinese could always buy them with their appreciated yuan, but do Chinese kids really want Barbie dolls? Will the Chinese buy the plastic American flags produced in Chinese factories?

Simultaneously, nearby nations like Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan have become integrally tied to the Chinese economy. If China implodes, those nations might follow suit.

On the other side of the Eastern Hemisphere, Europe is struggling. Despite rhetoric from European government officials, it appears as though Greece may default. The potential ramifications of a Greek default would be utterly massive.

Greece may have to <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/06/1175288/how-germany-could-inadvertantly-destroy-the-euro-and-doom-their-economy">abandon the euro</a>. In that case, the euro may cease to exist, as other debt straddled nations like Portugal and Ireland exit in quick succession. Even if euro stays intact, the effect a Greece default would have on the European financial system is hard to quantify. Which banks are holding Greece's debt? How about credit default swaps?

If Greece takes down Europe and China takes down Asia, who will be left standing? The United States, Canada, and Latin America?

If the Japanese tsunami has demonstrated anything, it is that global supply chains are <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/commodities/11/06/1150937/it-is-all-japans-fault">increasingly interdependent</a>. If the economies of the Eastern Hemisphere go down, how will the economies in the Americas prosper?

The price of oil and other industrial commodities might fall in such a scenario, but where would economic demand come from?

In that case, there's the possibility of government-backed stimulus. However, with many Western nations wallowing in debt, there might simply not be the funds available with which to stimulate with.

The central banks could always print the money to finance the programs, but if China and other emerging markets are not there to <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/commodities/11/06/1171109/is-ben-bernanke-sabotaging-the-chinese-economy">mop-up the liquidity</a>, inflation could rapidly spiral out of control. Entire fiat currencies might outright collapse. With little demand, there would be no velocity of money due to economic growth. However, if economic agents believed that the central banks would print forever, confidence in the currencies might vanish.

Hopefully, such a scenario never plays out. But it seems more possible everyday.

Action Items

Bullish: Traders who believe that the global economy will emerge from the present rut largely intact might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>Buy Pro Shares Ultra S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>) in a long play on U.S. equities. U.S. equities might do well in a global recovery, and SSO could benefit.</li><li>Buy United States Oil Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uso#NYSE">USO</a>) in a long play on oil. USO may rally if oil increases in price, on increased global demand.</li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that the global economy is heading down a dangerous path may consider taking positions in the following: 

<ul><li>SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) is a long play on gold. Gold has traditionally done well in times of economic crisis. Traders may run to the save-haven of gold, if the global economy collapses.</li><li>Pro Shares Ultra Short Dow 30 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxd#NYSE">DXD</a>) is a short play on the Dow Jones. If the U.S. market tanks, DXD may do well.</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Politics

Previews

Forex

The Case for a Global Depression

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rallied as comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy indicated that a new bailout package for Greece worth nearly 150 billion euros would come sometime in July, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/17/us-markets-stocks-idUSTRE75512M20110617">Reuters</a> reported.

The markets moved higher on the news. In the U.S., the Dow Jones jumped nearly 1%, while Greece's Athens Composite Index rallied nearly 5%. The EUR/USD bounced back slightly. <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/06/1176391/as-greece-burns-traders-run-to-the-greenback">The pair</a> sustained heavy losses <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/06/1175288/how-germany-could-inadvertantly-destroy-the-euro-and-doom-their-economy">on Thursday</a> when a report indicated that Germany planned to delay a new Greek bailout until September.

At present, the Greek government only has the funding to <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/06/1163378/greece-just-got-greeced">stay solvent</a> for approximately one more month. Athens has been relying on aide from the International Monetary Fund to stay afloat.

According to <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jun/16/imf-forced-germany-to-guarantee-greek-bailout">The Guardian</a>, John Lipsky—the acting director of the IMF—threatened to pull the IMF's support of Greece (and thereby trigger a sovereign default) unless Germany was willing to pledge its full support.

Is the rally in the euro and the markets justified?

Alan Greenspan does not think so. On Thursday night, the former Federal Reserve Chairman stated that it was "almost certain" that Greece would default, according to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/default-by-greece-almost-certain-greenspan.html">Bloomberg</a>.

Further, the new plan hinted at by Merkel and Sarkozy was based on a few assumptions.

The plan will require existing bond holders to be willing to roll over their debts. While it is possible that some bond holders would be willing to oblige to avoid losing their investments, others may prefer not to continue propping the troubled nation up.

Additionally, the plan will look to private investors to participate on a "voluntary basis," <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110617-705463.html">The Wall Street Journal</a> reports. Some private institutions certainly <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/05/1119055/who-in-the-private-sector-will-bailout-greece">could lose out</a> in a Greek default, and thereby may be willing to lend aide, but will there be enough interest in the private markets?

At the present time, the new agreement to bailout the Greeks appears to be <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/05/1112637/greeces-exit-from-the-euro-is-on-the-table">questionable at best</a>. Investors should be wary before moving back into the euro.

Action Items

Bullish: Traders who believe that Merkel and Sarkozy are sincere, and that Greece will be bailed out successfully, might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>Buy Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Euro ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eu#NYSE">EU</a>) in a long play on the euro. EU is up Friday, and may rally further if the euro appreciates.</li><li>Buy Pro Shares Ultra S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>) in a long play on U.S. equities. If problems subside in the Eurozone, that might be good for the broader global economy, including U.S. markets.</li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that Greece will inevitably default, either completely or partially, may consider taking positions in the following: 

<ul><li>Power Shares DB US Dollar Bullish Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>) is a long play on the dollar. The dollar index rallied sharply on Thursday when Germany's desire to push back the bailout to September surfaced. The U.S. dollar might be seen as a safe-haven amid European turmoil.</li><li>SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) in a long play on gold. The yellow metal may rally if the euro begins to tank.</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Wall Street Journal

Movers & Shakers

How Gullible Are the Markets? EUR/USD Says Very Much So

When the May jobs report was released it was <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eyFiClAzq8">the end of the world as we know it</a>.

And on top of that, we learned <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM-KOwS_hOw" class="ticker">SPY</a>), an exchange-traded fund that generally correspond to the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index. To add some leverage, an investor can use ProShares Ultra S&amp;P500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sso#NYSE">SSO</a>), which seeks results that are equivalent to twice (200%) the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index.

For investors who believe technology was unduly hammered, use the 2x Nasdaq bull ProShares QQQ (Nasdaq: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/qqq#Nasdaq">QQQ</a>), equivalent to twice the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index.

And investors wishing to go long the U.S. dollar can buy PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>). To short the euro, investors can buy the 2x leveraged Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/drr#NYSE">DRR</a>) or the 2x leveraged ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/euo#NYSE">EUO</a>).

Betting the May Jobs Report Is Not the End of the World

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Based on the success of LinkedIn's (LNKD) IPO. Bigger than Google in Russia Yandex, internet company, holds 64% of the market and Google's 22% market for internet search, due to price its IPO later in New York, plans to sell shares at between $24 and $25 each, compared to an earlier $20 to $22 range.
<a href="http://ceoworld.biz/ceo/tag/lnkd">LinkedIn</a> (LNKD) is trading at a price of $88.30, a dramatic change of -4.79 with % change of -5.15% from its previous day's close. Currently, the company has a Market capitalization (total value of a company in the stock market) of approximately 8.34B.
<a href="http://ceoworld.biz/ceo/tag/goog">Google</a> (GOOG) is trading at a price of $518.39, a dramatic change of -5.64 with % change of (-1.08% from its previous day's close. Currently, the company has a Market capitalization (total value of a company in the stock market) of approximately 167.05B.
<a href="http://ceoworld.biz/ceo/tag/yandex">Yandex</a> would be the biggest float by an internet firm since Google raised $1.67 billion in 2004. It will list on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol YNDX. At $24 a share, Yandex would be valued at $7.71 billion, making it the fourth largest IPO year-to-date after HCA (HCA), Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Nielsen (NLSN). Russian Internet giant Mail.ru Group Ltd. (MAIL) made its public trading debut on the London Stock Exchange last year.
Morgan Stanley (MS), Deutsche Bank (DB) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are the lead underwriters for the offering.  LinkedIn (LNKD) dropped hard on Monday due to negative press over the weekend. I don't feel LNKD is a good investment right now but will be trading it on major pullbacks. Support is $80.
<a href="http://ceoworld.biz/ceo/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/yandex.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15986" title="yandex" src="http://ceoworld.biz/ceo/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/yandex.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="243" /></a>
ETF's To Watch: iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (ETF)(TZA), iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)(QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQQ), ProShares Ultra QQQ (ETF)(QLD), SPDR S&amp;P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY), SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares Ultra S&amp;P500 (ETF)(SSO), ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF) (SRS)
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