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The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and depositary receipts of companies involved in the steel sector. Such companies may include small- and medium-capitalization companies and foreign and emerging market issuers. It may concentrate its investments in a particular industry or group of industries to the extent that the Steel Index concentrates in an industry or group of industries. The fund is non-diversified.

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Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) shares are trading lower premarket on Friday after the company disclosed that it plans to invest $1.2 billion (C$1.7 billion) to modernize its Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant in Alma, Quebec, which <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">has been operational since 1926</a>.
This represents Rio Tinto&#8217;s most significant investment in its hydroelectric assets since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-invests-to-modernise-century-old-hydroelectric-power-plant-in-quebec#:~:text=ALMA%2C%20Canada%2D%2D(BUSINESS%20WIRE,hydroelectric%20assets%20since%20the%201950s." rel="noreferrer noopener">the</a> 1950s.
This power plant modernization is crucial for the long-term viability of low-carbon aluminum production in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region, thereby securing jobs for employees throughout the area.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/45346924" rel="noreferrer noopener">Rio Tinto, Sumitomo Partner On $430 Million Copper-Gold Project In Australia</a>
The upgrade will secure Rio Tinto&#8217;s assets, improve renewable energy supply efficiency, safety, and reliability for its operations, and ensure safe working conditions for employees and the community.
The project, slated for completion by 2032, will involve over 300 workers at its peak.
The company&#8217;s key elements comprise replacing eight turbine-alternator units and their water intake/passages, constructing a northern extension and workshop, upgrading electrical and mechanical equipment, and modifying a spillway for reliable winter use.
In addition to earlier disclosed projects valued at a combined $183 million (C$252 million) for upgrading butterfly valves and two other turbine-alternator sets at the Isle-Maligne power station, Rio Tinto is making this new investment.
As one of Canada&#8217;s largest private hydroelectricity generators, Rio Tinto benefits from seven hydroelectric plants in Quebec and British Columbia.
These facilities offer a competitive advantage, allowing the company&#8217;s modern aluminum smelters to produce some of the lowest-emission aluminum globally.
Rio Tinto Aluminium&#8217;s Managing Director for Atlantic Operations, Sébastien Ross, said, &#8220;The Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant has been a strategic asset for Rio Tinto for 100 years, drawing on the expertise and dedication of multiple generations of employees and business partners.&#8221;
&#8220;This major investment to modernize our facilities will ensure the long-term future and competitivity of our low carbon aluminum production in Quebec for decades to come for our Canadian and American customers.&#8221;
On Monday, the company finalized joint venture agreements with&nbsp;Sumitomo Metal Mining&nbsp;(SMM) to advance the Winu copper-gold project&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/contracts/25/05/45346924/rio-tinto-sumitomo-join-forces-on-430-million-copper-gold-project-in-australia" rel="noreferrer noopener">Western Australia&#8217;s Great Sandy Desert</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are down 0.81% to $62.24 premarket at the last check on Friday.
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Equities

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ICOP

Rio Tinto Invests $1.2 Billion To Modernize Century-Old Quebec Hydropower Plant

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) shares are trading higher premarket on Monday after it finalized joint venture agreements with Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) to advance the Winu copper-gold project <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250511288741/en/Rio-Tinto-and-Sumitomo-Metal-Mining-sign-Definitive-Agreement-for-Winu-Project-joint-venture" rel="noreferrer noopener">in</a> Western Australia&#8217;s Great Sandy Desert.
According to the deal, Rio Tinto will remain responsible for the ongoing development and operation of the Winu project.
In return, Sumitomo Metal Mining will pay Rio Tinto up to $430.4 million for a 30% ownership stake in the project.
This includes an upfront payment of $195 million, with the potential for up to an additional $235.4 million in deferred payments contingent on achieving future project milestones.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/25/05/45163353/rio-tinto-stops-activist-campaign-explores-critical-minerals-opportunities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Rio Tinto Stops Activist Campaign, Explores Critical Minerals Opportunities</a>
The transaction is anticipated to be finalized in 2025, pending regulatory approvals and standard closing conditions.
The Winu project, discovered by Rio Tinto in 2017, is described as an attractive, low-risk, long-life copper-gold deposit with significant potential for expansion beyond its initial development plans.
Rio Tinto is maintaining its focus on partnerships with the Nyangumarta and Martu Traditional Owners, including ongoing Project Agreement negotiations.
The pre-feasibility study for the Winu project, outlining an initial processing capacity of up to 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), is expected to be finalized in 2025.
Rio Tinto Copper Chief Executive Katie Jackson said, &#8220;Our relationship with SMM began in 2000 with our partnership at the Northparkes mine in New South Wales and we look forward to bringing our combined experience and expertise to deliver the Winu project.&#8221;
&#8220;This partnership is an excellent fit for Rio Tinto and will strengthen the project as we continue to prioritize the strong and enduring partnerships built to date with the land&#8217;s Traditional Owners, the Nyangumarta and the Martu.&#8221;
Last week, Rio Tinto disclosed that it entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with&nbsp;AMG Metals &amp; Materials to explore the development of a large-scale,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/contracts/25/04/44869614/why-is-rio-tinto-betting-on-india-a-green-aluminium-gamble-could-reshape-supply-chains" rel="noreferrer noopener">low-carbon aluminum project in India</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 2.90% to $61.72 premarket at the last check on Monday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45163691/global-tensions-to-drive-a-two-year-copper-surplus-study-group-warns" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global Tensions To Drive Two-Year Copper Surplus, Study Group Warns</a></li>
</ul>
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Commodities

Movers

Rio Tinto, Sumitomo Partner On $430 Million Copper-Gold Project In Australia

VALE S.A.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VALE#NYSE">VALE</a>) shares are trading lower on Friday. On Thursday, the company reported <a target="_blank" href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/d48b666d-268f-8226-ffa4-8dae96818831?origin=2" rel="noreferrer noopener">a decline in first-quarter</a> net operating revenue of&nbsp;4%&nbsp;year over year (Y/Y) to&nbsp;$8.119 billion, beating the consensus of&nbsp;$8.03 billion.
Sales from Iron ore rose 4% year over year, copper grew 7% year over year, and nickel surged 18% year over year.
The company produced 67.7 million tonnes (Mt) of iron ore, which was down 4.5% year over year. Production in the Northern System <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44836101/vale-q1-mixed-iron-ore-output-falls-4-amid-heavy-rains-copper-and-nickel-output-gains" rel="noreferrer noopener">was constrained by heavy rainfall</a>.
The average realized iron ore fines price declined&nbsp;10%&nbsp;year over year to&nbsp;$90.8/t due to lower premium levels. Copper and nickel all-in costs stood at&nbsp;$1,212/t and&nbsp;$15,730/t, respectively, in the quarter.&nbsp;
Adjusted EPS of 33 cents missed&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">the consensus of 39 cents</a>. Proforma EBITDA declined&nbsp;8%&nbsp;Y/Y to&nbsp;$3.2 billion&nbsp;in the quarter due to lower iron ore and nickel prices.
Capital expenditure fell&nbsp;16%&nbsp;Y/Y to&nbsp;$1.2 billion&nbsp;in the quarter. As of March 31, cash and cash equivalent stood at&nbsp;$3.96 billion.
The company approved&nbsp;$1.979 billion&nbsp;in dividends and interest on capital.&nbsp;
Gustavo Pimenta, CEO, said,&nbsp;"Our value-accretive projects continue to progress, being essential elements towards enhancing our portfolio flexibility and improving operational and cost efficiency."
"Additionally, we have been consistently optimizing our balance sheet through asset-light solutions, such as the transaction that created the strategic joint venture at Alianca Energia, which will also help us deliver on our long-term decarbonization goals.
"The current macroeconomic environment and market volatility reinforce the importance of our Vale 2030 strategy, whereby we are building an even more competitive company that can thrive in any market condition."
Outlook: Vale continues to see iron ore production of 325-335 Mt for FY25 and 340-360 Mt&nbsp;in&nbsp;FY26, driven by the expected full capacity of Vargem Grande 1 and Capanema projects in the first half of 2026.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and&nbsp;IShares Latin America 40 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ILF#NYSE">ILF</a>).
Price Action: VALE&nbsp;shares&nbsp;are down 0.62%&nbsp;at&nbsp;$9.69 premarket at the last check Friday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44376666/high-yield-dividend-investor-making-12900-per-year-names-10-favorite-stocks-took-me-almost-3-years-to-get-to-this-point" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">High-Yield Dividend Investor Making $12,900 Per Year Names 10 Favorite Stocks – ‘Took Me Almost 3 Years To Get To This Point'</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by SERGIO V S RANGEL via Shutterstock

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iShares Trust S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund

VALE

VALE Q1 Revenue Slides, Profit Dips On Lower Iron Ore Prices

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) disclosed that it entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with AMG Metals &amp; Materials to explore the development of a large-scale, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">low-carbon aluminium project in India</a>.
The initiative aims to leverage renewable energy—specifically wind and solar, supported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250416657643/en/Rio-Tinto-and-AMG-Metals-Materials-to-assess-low-carbon-aluminium-project-in-India" rel="noreferrer noopener">by </a>pumped hydro storage to power the operations.
The partnership will assess the feasibility of establishing an integrated facility with a capacity for up to 1 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of primary aluminium and 2 Mtpa of alumina.
As a first step, the study will focus on a potential 500,000 tpa primary aluminium smelter at a strategically chosen location in India.
Rio Tinto Aluminium Chief Executive Jérôme Pécresse said, "This study is an important step in our ambition to grow our global, low-carbon aluminium footprint while exploring new project delivery approaches and opportunities in emerging markets.&#8221;
&#8221;With its rapid economic growth and strategic position, India is a compelling location for this potential project and aligns with our long-term vision for a globally more diverse and resilient aluminium business."
Group President of AMG Metals &amp; Materials and Greenko Mahesh Kolli added, "This MOU could deliver much needed low-carbon metal at scale to propel decarbonization initiatives in global supply chains across auto, construction, consumer packaging and many more segments."
On Wednesday, the company reported a decline in Pilbara iron ore production of 10%<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/04/44836973/cyclones-impact-rio-tinto-q1-pilbara-production-and-shipment-by-13-millions-tonnes-trigger-95-million-recovery-plan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> year-over-year (Y/Y) to 69.8Mt</a>.
Severe weather conditions impacted both production and shipment, with four cyclones collectively causing an estimated loss of&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">approximately 13 million tonnes</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and&nbsp;NEOS ETF Trust Mast Global Battery Recycling &amp; Production ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EV#NYSE">EV</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 1.77% at $58.17 at last check Thursday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44636869/jp-morgan-turns-to-europe-sees-value-in-emea-mining-equities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">JPMorgan Turns Bullish On European Miners, Sees Copper Rally As Key Catalyst</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Rahul Sapra/Shutterstock

Contracts

Why Is Rio Tinto Betting On India? A Green Aluminium Gamble Could Reshape Supply Chains

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) on Wednesday reported a decline in Pilbara iron ore production of 10% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">year-over-year (Y/Y) to 69.8Mt</a>.
Pilbara iron ore shipments (consolidated basis) decreased 8% Y/Y to 62.5Mt in the quarter.
Severe weather conditions impacted both production and shipment, with four cyclones collectively causing an estimated loss of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">approximately 13 million tonnes</a>.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/03/44223819/activist-renews-calls-for-listing-unification-as-rio-tinto-abandons-5-billion-equity-offering" rel="noreferrer noopener">Activist Renews Calls For Listing Unification As Rio Tinto Abandons $5 Billion Equity Offering</a>
Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-releases-first-quarter-2025-production-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">production</a> of Bauxite rose 12% Y/Y to 15.0MT and Alumina upped 3% Y/Y to 1.9Mt in the quarter.
Outlook: For FY25, Rio reiterated guidance for Bauxite production of 57 to 59MT and Alumina production of 7.4 to 7.8MT.
The company now projects Pilbara iron ore shipments to reach the lower end of the previously issued guidance of 323-338MT, primarily due to the losses sustained from four cyclones in the first quarter.
To address about half of this shortfall, the company has implemented mitigation strategies that will require an additional investment of roughly A$150 million ($95.5 million), covering rectification efforts and contracted mining services.
Moreover, the company continues to anticipate its share of capital investment of ~$11 billion in 2025.
Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm said, "We continued to see strong operational improvement with the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and our bauxite operations delivering record months for production in March. Production was affected, however, by extreme weather events that impacted our Pilbara iron ore operations."
"We achieved first iron ore at Western Range in the Pilbara and the Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea remains on track. After successful completion of the Arcadium acquisition in March, we are advancing to establish a world-class lithium business."
Last month, the company invested $1.8 billion to develop the Brockman Syncline&nbsp;1&nbsp;(BS1) mine<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/03/44161401/rio-tintos-1-8-billion-iron-ore-expansion-ramps-up-in-australia-details" rel="noreferrer noopener"> in Western Australia's West Pilbara</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and NEOS ETF Trust Mast Global Battery Recycling &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EV#NYSE">EV</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 0.45% to $57.52 premarket at the last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44709602/jpmorgans-mining-stock-picks-for-a-v-shaped-recovery-analyst-sees-50-returns-over-two-years" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">JPMorgan's Mining Stock Picks For A ‘V-Shaped Recovery,' Analyst Sees 50% Returns Over Two Years</a></li>
</ul>
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Cyclones Impact Rio Tinto Q1 Pilbara Production And Shipment By 13 Millions Tonnes, Trigger $95 Million Recovery Plan

VALE S.A. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VALE#NYSE">VALE</a>) reported the first-quarter FY25 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">production and sales performance</a> on Tuesday.
The company clocked iron ore production of 67.7 million tonnes (Mt), which was down 4.5% year over year (Y/Y), with production in the Northern System constrained by heavy rainfall.
Pellet production declined 15% Y/Y to 7.2 Mt primarily due to reduced availability of pellet feed in the quarter.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43795425/rio-tinto-vs-vale-a-mining-showdown-ahead-of-q4-earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">Rio Tinto Vs. Vale: Both Mining Stocks Show Bullish Technical Signals Ahead Of Q4 Earnings</a>
In the first quarter, Vale's iron ore sales increased 3.6% Y/Y to 66.1 million tonnes, aided by the sale of advanced inventories built-up in previous quarters.
The average realized price for iron ore fines was $90.8 per tonne (-9.8% Y/Y), primarily due to lower premium levels.
Similarly, the average pellet price declined 18.1% year over year to $140.8 per tonne, reflecting weaker contractual premiums during the quarter.
Meanwhile, Iron ore sales increased 4% year over year to 66.1 Mt, driven by an agile supply chain and strategic use of inventories.
Also, Copper production rose 11% Y/Y to 90.9 kt, with a strong performance from Salobo, Sossego, and Voisey's Bay thanks to the Salobo 3 and Voisey's Bay underground expansions.
Additionally, Nickel production surged 11% year over year to 43.9 kt, led by increased production at Onça Puma and solid results from Canadian operations, further enhanced by VBME's progress.
In February, Vale reported fourth-quarter net operating revenue decline of 22% Y/Y to $10.124 billion, beating&nbsp;the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43858670/vale-q4-lower-iron-ore-prices-weigh-on-earnings-approves-198-billion-in-dividends-interest-on-capital-renewed-buyback-program" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus of $10.117 billion</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ILF#NYSE">ILF</a>).
Price Action: VALE shares are up 0.22% at $9.15 premarket at the last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44243837/iron-ore-production-to-accelerate-until-2030-study-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Iron Ore Production To Accelerate Until 2030, Study Says</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by SERGIO V S RANGEL via Shutterstock

Vale Q1 Iron Ore Output Falls 4.5% Amid Heavy Rains, Copper And Nickel Output Gain

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>) shares are trading lower premarket on Friday. On Thursday, the company guided for the first quarter of 2025 adjusted EPS loss of 53 cents &#8211; 49 cents vs. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/03/b44425492/united-states-steel-corporation-provides-first-quarter-2025-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus loss of 30 cents</a>.
Also, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of about $125 million in the first quarter of 2025, in line with prior&nbsp;first quarter&nbsp;outlook of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43353295" rel="noreferrer noopener">$100 million&nbsp;&#8211; $150 million.</a>
The company projects the Flat-Rolled segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA to be lower sequentially on typical seasonal logistics constraints in the mining sector, which is expected to unwind in the second quarter.
United States Steel expects higher average selling prices and higher volumes <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance">to partially offset this mining impact.</a>
Meanwhile, the company anticipates Mini Mill segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA to be higher Q/Q on higher shipments.
Apart from this, the European segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve Q/Q due to an increase in shipments, volume efficiencies, and favorable raw material pricing despite the challenging demand environment in Europe.
On the other hand, the company sees Tubular segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA to be higher Q/Q led by an increase in prime shipments and rise in average selling prices.
President and Chief Executive Officer David B. Burritt said, &#8221;BR2 is expected to make a significant contribution to our 2025 EBITDA, with run-rate throughput expected during the second half of 2025 and full run-rate capability in 2026.&#8221;
&#8220;We applaud President Trump&#8217;s leadership and advocacy for the American steel industry in his recent tariff announcements. We continue to assess the benefit we expect from these tariff policies.&#8221;
&#8221;Combined with the partnership with Nippon Steel, which includes investment commitments, technology transfer and innovation, U. S. Steel&#8217;s future is extremely bright.&#8221;
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: X shares are down 1.34% at $40.51 premarket at the last check Friday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/03/44423382/billionaire-stanley-druckenmiller-boosts-us-steel-stake-by-143-is-he-betting-on-merger" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Boosts US Steel Stake By 143%: Is He Betting On Merger?</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock.

US Steel Faces Q1 Pressures, But Eyes Long-Term Gains From BR2 & Nippon Partnership

As a rule of thumb, whenever <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44308014/gold-hits-record-highs-as-trade-war-fears-fuel-safe-haven-demand-mining-stocks-soar">gold prices skyrocket</a>, the underlying economic implications suggest that enterprises such as Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLD#NASDAQ">STLD</a>) may struggle. 
Soaring bullion demand indicates a shift away from cyclical and industrial plays toward safe-haven assets. Gold&#8217;s not generating earnings or paying dividends represents an indictment against risk-on behavior. Nevertheless, current unusual circumstances warrant a closer—and curiously optimistic—look at STLD stock.
To be sure, President Donald Trump's administration has ignited fears of a protracted and ugly trade war. While the tariffs that undergird the president's economic policies theoretically help domestic industries, it must be noted that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40219850/rising-us-china-trade-tension-triggers-companies-to-prepone-orders-intensifying-supply-chain-woes-pe">global supply chains</a> are exactly that — global. Retaliatory measures can hurt the U.S. economy and that's not something policymakers can easily ignore, given the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/03/37623381/americans-struggle-as-food-becomes-third-biggest-expense-for-household-budgets-see-how-your-budg">challenges American households face</a>.
Nevertheless, domestic steel producers cheered President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports implemented last week. Despite a swift retaliatory move by the European Union, the domestic sector has conspicuously swung higher. In the trailing five sessions, the VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) has gained nearly 5%.
That said, the dispute over the core industrial commodity is complex. Steel producers have argued that the Trump tariffs close loopholes, enabling a more favorable environment for domestic investments and production. However, due to higher costs, downstream demand could suffer.
Still, money talks — and the smart money is signaling optimistic winds ahead.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Unusual Options Activity Shines the Spotlight on STLD Stock</h2>
Among the key indicators that retail investors should monitor is Benzinga's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/unusual-options-activity">options scanner</a>, which highlights unusual activity in the derivatives market. Essentially, options represent the playground of sophisticated investors. Therefore, transaction context or volume that exceeds normal or expected parameters may represent leading signals.
Unlike technical indicators such as moving averages, smart money transactions suggest what could happen next — not what did happen. To be fair, professional and institutional traders can get their forecasts wrong. However, these players have access to the best resources and are putting serious money on the table. Therefore, unusual options activity represents weighted opinions.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/unusual-options-activity"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1017" height="285" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19145141/STLD-unusual-options-activity.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-832282" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19145141/STLD-unusual-options-activity.jpg 1017w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19145141/STLD-unusual-options-activity-300x84.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19145141/STLD-unusual-options-activity-768x215.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1017px) 100vw, 1017px" /></a></figure>
During the Tuesday session, STLD stock represented a key highlight in Benzinga's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/insights/options/25/03/44384499/looking-at-steel-dynamicss-recent-unusual-options-activity">unusual options screener</a>, with most of the major transactions carrying bullish sentiment. Arguably, most investors will focus on the acquisition of call options. Based on the strike price and the premium paid, it's reasonable to presume that STLD could poke its head above $139 by mid-May.
What's perhaps most intriguing, though, are the sold $140 puts, which expire on April 17. At the time of the transaction, the bid (or the premium received for the written/sold puts) was $14.60. Subtracting this figure from the strike price results in a breakeven price of $125.40. Stated differently, the put writer will take paper losses below this point (from an intrinsic value perspective).
Should STLD stock succumb to downside pressure, the put writer will naturally incur assignment risk. This setup strongly implies that the trader is comfortable owning Steel Dynamics stock at the perceived discounted price of $125.40 (the strike price minus the premium received). That's great intelligence for those who want to trade STLD straight up.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19144925/STLD-stock-probability-gambit-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-832281" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19144925/STLD-stock-probability-gambit-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19144925/STLD-stock-probability-gambit-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19144925/STLD-stock-probability-gambit-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19144925/STLD-stock-probability-gambit.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>
Finally, investors should recognize that STLD stock benefits from an upward bias. Using data since January 2019, a long position held for any given eight-week period has a 59.31% chance of rising. Under dynamic conditions of modest momentum — with STLD currently up 1.5% in the past five sessions — the probabilities don't materially change.
In fact, the empirical data suggests that the odds of long-side transactions improve.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Following the Smart Money to Profits</h2>
At this juncture, investors have two choices: heed the political warnings and avoid the steel industry altogether or follow the smart money flowing into STLD stock. Frankly, either approach has its set of justifications. Still, the adventurous type may want to consider the latter pathway.
Assuming that the bullish thesis pans out, a realistic upside target over the next four-and-a-half weeks is around $138. This forecast is based on median positive returns under baseline and dynamic conditions. Further, a market-realistic Monte Carlo simulation reveals a price projection of almost $136.
With the above market intelligence in mind, investors could buy the 130/135 bull call spread expiring April 17. This transaction involves buying the 130 call (at a time-of-writing ask of $400) and simultaneously selling the $135 call (at a bid of $210). The proceeds of the short call partially offset the debit paid for the long call, leading to a net cash outlay of $190, the most that can be lost in the trade.
To be clear, both calls are out the money (OTM); hence, the "cheap" net debit paid. Further, the trade prioritizes the statistical argument undergirding STLD stock and is even more aggressive than the smart money. However, the maximum payout of over 163% is extremely tempting.
For those who want to follow the institutional players more closely, the 125/130 bull spread expiring May 16 is available. However, the payout falls quite significantly to 85.2%. At the same time, it's arguably one of the most high-confidence trades one could make in the domestic steel market.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/03/44400742/nvidias-very-strong-roadmap-wins-praise-from-7-analysts-on-blackwell-robotics-ai-growth">Nvidia&#8217;s &#8216;Very Strong Roadmap&#8217; Wins Praise From 7 Analysts On Blackwell, Robotics, AI Growth</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Vladimir Mulder/Shutterstock.com

Long Ideas

Macro Economic Events

Options

Politics

STLD

Options Corner: Smart Money Is Making Steel Dynamics Great Again

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called for increased activity in the commodity sector, urging industry leaders to seize opportunities on public lands. At the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on Wednesday, Burgum noted the need for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities" rel="noreferrer noopener">higher domestic production</a> and reduced dependence on foreign supply chains.
"If we're going to drill, baby, drill, then we've got to be asked to also mine, baby, mine," Burgum told the audience, according <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ceraweek-us-can-slash-20-30-regulation-boost-energy-interior-secretary-says-2025-03-12/" rel="noreferrer noopener">to</a> Reuters.
President Donald Trump's administration has actively pursued policies to bolster domestic supply chains, including a yet-to-be-signed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/44057033/this-is-something-that-president-trump-does-over-and-over-again-geopolitical-strategist-says-about-failed-rare-minerals-deal-with-ukraine-president-zelenskyy" rel="noreferrer noopener">agreement with Ukraine</a> for mineral resource cooperation. Additionally, Trump has proposed building critical mineral refining facilities on Pentagon-controlled military bases.
Burgum, a former governor of North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state, noted opportunities to generate government revenue. According to his estimates, the current administration could unwind 20% to 30% of existing production regulations, significantly lowering the cost of commodity extraction.
The Interior Secretary stressed the importance of strengthening critical minerals production, citing growing concerns about China's dominance in the sector.
"We put ourselves in a position of incredible risk, where we've allowed ourselves to have a major competitor control 80% of the processing for critical minerals," Burgum said.
He proposed leveraging the planned U.S. sovereign wealth fund and strengthening collaboration with allied nations to secure a stable supply of key minerals like lithium and nickel to counter this situation.
According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39870803/us-mine-development-delays-among-worlds-longest-second-only-to-zambia" rel="noreferrer noopener">last year's study</a>, the U.S. must find ways to cut the red tape on its mineral production. Its permitting process is the second-slowest in the world, taking as much as 29 years from discovery to production.
Still, there is a delicate balance between deregulation and environmental destruction. The Biden administration blocked one of the largest domestic projects, the Pebble Mine project in Alaska, citing environmental risks to the Bristol Bay watershed.
In response to Burgum's remarks, the National Parks Conservation Association <a target="_blank" href="https://act.npca.org/page/79022/action/1" rel="noreferrer noopener">opposed</a> increased drilling and mining near national monuments like Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante.
"If we lose these places to oil and gas development, we forfeit a century-old legacy that we will not pass on to our grandchildren," the association warned last month.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44271394/goldman-sees-copper-imports-frontrunning-tariffs-as-fcx-positions-to-benefit" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Goldman Sachs Sees Copper Imports Frontrunning Tariffs As FCX Positions To Benefit</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Government

Regulations

Markets

iShares Trust Dow Jones US Basic Materials Sector Index Fund

PowerShares Dynamic Basic Materials Sector Portfolio

Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Etf

REMX

Interior Secretary Calls For 'Mine, Baby, Mine,' Promising Cost Savings From Deregulation

When President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian aluminum and steel imports, it created a cloud of fear and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44269301/trumps-25-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum-imports-take-effect-eu-retaliates-us-steel-nucor-century-aluminum-and-other-domestic-stocks-cheer">uncertainty in the markets</a>. 
Stocks dropped as the 25% previously announced tariffs set to be implemented on Wednesday were anticipated to be doubled.
Trump later hinted at reconsideration after Ontario's premier suspended a surcharge on electricity exports. While domestic producers may benefit, higher costs could dent the profits of industries that rely heavily on these materials.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44253100/trump-slaps-50-tariff-on-canadian-steel-aluminum-threatens-auto-industry">Trump Slaps 50% Tariff On Canadian Steel &amp; Aluminum, Threatens Auto Industry</a>
This has presented a good opportunity to look into exchange-traded funds, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs, that may gain or lose</a>:
<ul>
<li>VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>): The ETF gained 1.3% on Tuesday. Its U.S. exposure is at 53.78%, with Brazil and Australia following at 14.65% and 10.71%, respectively. SLX has the least exposure to Canada at less than 1%. The ETF carries an expense ratio of 56 basis points. Tariffs on materials imports from Canada bode well for domestic producers. SLX has exposure to United States Steel Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>) and Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLD#NASDAQ">STLD</a>).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYM#NYSE">IYM</a>): This fund appeals to investors seeking a conservative way to gain aluminum exposure. The ETF&#8217;s exposure is spread out to base metals stocks and other materials sectors like chemicals and forestry products. This makes it a less speculative investment. This reduces risks from an aluminum market downturn. The ETF holds stocks of aluminum leaders such as Alcoa (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) and Reliance Steel &amp; Aluminum (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RS#NYSE">RS</a>). Both stand to gain if the tariffs are implemented.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Invesco Building &amp; Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKB#NYSE">PKB</a>): One of the outcomes of the 50% (or even 25%) tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada is that it will drive up materials prices in the U.S. Higher steel prices may weigh on the construction sector. This fund could face profitability issues as steel is a key raw material in the industry it is exposed to.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Invesco Food &amp; Beverage ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBJ#NYSE">PBJ</a>): This fund could see headwinds as higher aluminum costs may pressure the food and beverage bottling industry as well. Companies like Diageo (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DEO#NYSE">DEO</a>), Coca-Cola (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>), and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEP#NASDAQ">PEP</a>) likely to face increased costs.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Steel Industry Backs The Move</h2>
Despite the market jitters, U.S. steel manufacturers are largely in favor of the tariffs. In a <a href="https://www.steel.org/2025/03/five-steel-groups-pledge-support-for-steel-tariffs-applaud-actions/">letter </a>to the president, five steel industry executives, represented by American Iron and Steel Institute, expressed their strong support for the 25% tariffs. Moreover,&nbsp;Jesse Gary, the CEO of&nbsp;Century Aluminum&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CENX#NASDAQ">CENX</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44269301/trumps-25-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum-imports-take-effect-eu-retaliates-us-steel-nucor-century-aluminum-and-other-domestic-stocks-cheer">told the New York Times</a>, &#8220;The new tariffs will close those loopholes back up and enable us to begin investing again, and bring on more production here in the U.S.&#8221;
While steel producers in the U.S. are supportive, the aluminum industry has shown a mixed reaction. Alcoa CEO William Oplinger <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/alcoa-s-ceo-says-trump-tariffs-could-wipe-out-100-000-u-s-jobs-11686292">voiced </a>concerns that tariffs could hurt the U.S. aluminum sector due to the company's strong ties to Canadian operations.
The impact of tariffs will likely trickle down to consumers as well. Domestic steel prices have already surged from around $700 to nearly $1,000 per ton since Trump's initial announcement in February. A Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/trump-s-metal-tariffs-set-to-hit-favorites-like-baseball-bats-and-fishing-reels">report </a> said that higher costs could affect a range of products, from aluminum baseball bats to stainless steel cookware and fishing reels.
Investors should keep an eye on ETFs exposed to these sectors, as they may see significant movement in the coming weeks. Whether Trump follows through with the full 50% tariff or retreats from the threat, the ripple effects will be felt across multiple industries and investment tools.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/03/44285737/dailydelta-rolls-out-etfs-for-daily-nasdaq-100-index-movements">DailyDelta Rolls Out ETFs For Daily Nasdaq-100 Index Movements</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Midjourney

Sector ETFs

ETFs

CENX

PowerShares ETF Trust Dynamic Building &nstruction Portfolio

Steel & Aluminum Import Tariff Threat: 4 ETFs Gaining & Losing In The Market Shake-Up

The global iron ore market could increase production over the next five years, with output surging as high as 2.92 billion tons by 2029. This trend could put additional pressure on leading <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/australia" rel="noreferrer noopener">exporters like Australia</a>, whose currency has declined by around 20% against the U.S. dollar since 2015.
Per Mining Weekly, BMI's latest <a target="_blank" href="https://www.miningweekly.com/article/iron-ore-production-to-accelerate-over-next-five-years-bmi-2025-03-11" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a> expects iron output to grow at an annual rate of 2.5% until 2029—more than double the 1.2% growth it saw over the previous five years. Expansion of existing mines and new projects, like Guinea's Simandou, which BMI highlights as a long-term milestone, should drive this growth.
However, the report also warns that geopolitical instability and resource nationalism could cause delays, and after 2029, a lower price environment could push production into stagnation.
Global iron ore exports increased by 2% in 2024, reaching approximately 1.6 billion tons. Australia maintained its position as the world's top exporter, shipping 866 million tons—an increase of 1.4% year-over-year.
Brazil followed with 390 million tons, marking a 2.6% rise, while South Africa shipped 61 million tons, up 3.4%. China, the world's largest importer, brought in a record 1.24 billion tons in 2024, a 4.9% increase driven by stable steel production and lower prices for Australian fines.
Major mining companies also saw production increases in 2024. BHP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) boosted output by 3% to 290 million tons, Fortescue Metals Group (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSUMF#OTC">FSUMF</a>) increased supply by 2% to 194 million tons, and Vale (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VALE#NYSE">VALE</a>) achieved a 2% rise to 328 million tons, its highest level since 2018.
Meanwhile, India's exports declined as domestic demand surged by 4% to 242 million tons, driven by growth in steel, pellet, and sponge iron production.
BMI has set an optimistic forecast for Brazil, expecting its ore production to rebound following a contraction around 2020. The firm forecasts a 3.1% average annual growth from 2025 to 2029, with output increasing from 463 million tons to 528.7 million tons.
This growth is expected to continue beyond 2030 as planned projects contribute to further expansion.
Still, China is expected to lag in market growth, boosting its output by 1% this year. Despite its effort to reduce reliance on ore imports, it faces a cost problem owing to lower-grade ore. India's iron ore production is projected to grow by 2% in 2024, reaching 284 million tons, but growth is expected to slow after 2025, with output forecasted to hit 306.5 million tons by 2034.
Australia, the global leader in iron ore, is set to increase output by 2.5% in 2025, with expansion projects such as Mineral Resources' Onslow Iron and Fortescue's Iron Bridge contributing to growth.
Yet, Rio Tinto has faced challenges due to resource depletion at Paraburdoo and adverse weather, with cyclones expected to impact shipments by 13 million tons in Q1 2025.
While cornerstone projects like Simandou offer a supply boost, declining prices and competitive pressures could reshape the industry – particularly if decarbonization efforts gain stronger momentum.
Price Watch: VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) is up 4.33% year-to-date.
Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44216408/dr-congo-explores-a-minerals-for-security-deal-with-the-us" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">DR Congo Explores Minerals-For-Security Deal With The US</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: BJP7Images via Shutterstock

Global

FSUMF

Iron Ore Production To Accelerate Until 2030, Study Says

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) disclosed that it is investing $1.8 billion to develop the Brockman Syncline <a target="_blank" href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-to-invest-1_8-billion-to-develop-brockman-mine-extension-in-western-australias-pilbara#:~:text=PERTH%2C%20Australia%2D%2D(BUSINESS%20WIRE,world%20class%20iron%20ore%20operations." rel="noreferrer noopener">1 </a>(BS1) mine in Western Australia&#8217;s West Pilbara.
With this, the company is aiming to extend the region&#8217;s mine life and maintaining iron ore production.
BS1 is part of a series of replacement projects, collectively aimed at achieving a total annual capacity of around 130Mtpa, reinforcing Rio Tinto&#8217;s long-term commitment to the Pilbara region.
It represents a major investment in the Brockman region, which includes Brockman 4 and Greater Nammuldi.
The project has secured all required State and Federal approvals and was developed in collaboration with the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura (PKKP) and Muntulgura Guruma Traditional Owners.
Rio Tinto Iron Ore Chief Executive Simon Trott said, &#8220;Brockman 4 produced 43 million tonnes of iron ore in 2024. Securing this project extends the life of the Brockman hub.&#8221;
&#8220;Rio Tinto has been mining iron ore in the Pilbara for almost six decades and our tranche of new mines will ensure we can continue to supply the globe&#8217;s ongoing need for iron ore, for decades to come.&#8221;
The project will be capable of processing up to 34 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of iron ore, utilizing existing facilities.
The first ore is now expected in 2027, ahead of the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.
The construction for the project is set to begin this year and will involve building a new primary crusher, an overland conveyor, a Non-Process Infrastructure precinct, and a temporary camp for construction workers.
The project will create around 1,000 jobs during construction, with a workforce of approximately 600 once operational.
In a separate release, Rio Tinto revealed the completion of the buyout of Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALTM#NYSE">ALTM</a>) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44158396" rel="noreferrer noopener">for $6.7 billion.</a>
The transaction will integrate Arcadium&#8217;s lithium operations into Rio Tinto&#8217;s portfolio. Arcadium boasts a production capacity of 75,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/24/10/41246302/major-tesla-supplier-arcadium-lithium-jumps-over-30-in-pre-market-after-rio-tinto-acquires-company-f" rel="noreferrer noopener">with plans to double by 2028</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to RIO via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and NEOS ETF Trust Mast Global Battery Recycling &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EV#NYSE">EV</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 0.33% at $63.96 premarket at the last check Thursday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/02/43864896/glencore-rio-tinto-ponder-leaving-london-stock-exchange-as-european-financial-hub-loses-luster" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glencore, Rio Tinto Ponder Leaving London Stock Exchange As European Financial Hub Loses Luster</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

ALTM

Rio Tinto's $1.8 Billion Iron Ore Expansion Ramps Up In Australia: Details

VALE S.A.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VALE#NYSE">VALE</a>) shares are surging on Thursday. On Wednesday, the company reported net operating revenues decline of 22% year over year to $10.124 billion, beating&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/ef08c06a-f29a-9272-3ba5-283e7e3c6617?origin=1" rel="noreferrer noopener">the</a> consensus of $10.117 billion.
Iron ore shipments declined by 9.1 Mt Y/Y due to portfolio optimization focusing on higher-margin products. The average realized iron ore fines price declined 21% Y/Y to $93/t due to lower benchmark prices.
Copper and nickel all-in costs stood at $1,098/t and $13,881/t, respectively—the lowest since fourth-quarter 2020 for copper and since first-quarter of 2022 for nickel.&nbsp;
Proforma EBITDA declined 40% Y/Y to $4.1 billion in the quarter due to a decline in iron ore prices and sales volumes. Adjusted EPS of 20 cents missed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the consensus of 43 cents</a>.
Capital expenditure fell 17% Y/Y to $1.77 billion in the quarter. As of December 31, cash and cash equivalent stood at $4.95 billion.
The company approved $1.984 billion in dividends and interest on capital, set for payment in March 2025, representing an annualized dividend yield of 10.4%.  Additionally, Vale renewed the share buyback program for 18 months, allowing for the repurchase of up to 120 million shares.
Gustavo Pimenta, CEO, said,&nbsp;"We are pleased to report a strong operational and financial performance in 2024, underscored by the highest iron ore production since 2018 and record copper production at Salobo. Our disciplined approach to cost and operational&nbsp;effeciency&nbsp;has driven significant improvements, with our C1 at&nbsp;US$ 18.8/t&nbsp;in Q4, the lowest level since 2022.&#8221;
&#8221;Regarding safety and dam management, we have made meaningful progress by eliminating four additional dams in 2024 and completing 57% of our dam&nbsp;decharacterization&nbsp;program. This year, we expect to remove the last dam at emergency level 3. We begin 2025 highly optimistic about our ability to meet our annual targets and advance our strategic priorities."
Outlook: Vale sees iron ore production of 325-335 Mt for FY25 and 340-360 Mt&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/37cb9949-5288-05dd-c822-c29e1b9fe0f4?origin=1" rel="noreferrer noopener">in</a> FY26, driven by project ramp-ups and the start-up of the Serra Sul +20 project.
For 2025, all-in costs&nbsp;are projected&nbsp;to be $53-$57/t, with a further decline to $50-$54/t in 2026. This reduction is owing to lower C1 cash costs, supported by efficiency improvements, increased production, and a shift&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">toward higher-quality products</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and&nbsp;IShares Latin America 40 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ILF#NYSE">ILF</a>).
Price Action: VALE sharse are up 3.75% at $10.11 at the last check Thursday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/02/43821214/trump-calls-for-more-tariffs-federal-reserve-minutes-on-deck-whats-driving-markets-wednesday" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Calls For More Tariffs, Federal Reserve Minutes On Deck: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Wednesday?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Dividends

Buybacks

VALE Q4: Lower Iron Ore Prices Weigh on Earnings, Stock Buyback Renewal And More

China's metal markets are waking up post-Lunar New Year, and JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane is tracking <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities">some eye-catching trends</a>.
Copper and iron ore prices are at four-month highs, steel output is the strongest since 2021, and base metal inventories are running at record-low seasonal levels. 
The takeaway? A tight physical market could be setting the stage for a bullish move—if China's demand kicks in.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43603930/tech-stocks-surge-steelmakers-jump-on-trumps-25-tariffs-copper-hits-9-month-highs-whats-driving-markets-monday">Tech Stocks Surge, Steelmakers Jump On Trump&#8217;s 25% Tariffs, Copper Hits 9-Month Highs: What&#8217;s Driving Markets</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Copper's Mixed Signals</h2>
Copper prices have climbed 5% in the last two weeks to around $9,500 per ton, but China's domestic demand isn't quite keeping pace. JPMorgan points out that physical copper demand is lagging seasonal norms, reflected in a 20% drop in China's copper premia. 
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/02/43432736/copper-stocks-on-shaky-ground-jpmorgan-analysts-say-tariffs-deepseek-cloud-outlook">Copper Stocks On Shaky Ground, JPMorgan Analysts Say: Tariffs, DeepSeek Cloud Outlook</a>
Still, O'Kane notes that global macro forces—like a strengthening yuan and anticipation of U.S. metal tariffs—are helping keep LME copper elevated. With inventories at five-year lows, JPMorgan sees copper climbing to $10,400 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2025.
For investors looking to capitalize, United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) and Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>) offer exposure to copper's momentum.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Iron Ore Rallies Amid Supply Disruptions</h2>
Iron ore prices have surged 10% since January to $105 per ton, fueled by cyclone-related supply hits in Western Australia. While steel rebar demand in China took a weather-related dip, steel production is running at the fastest pace since 2021. JPMorgan is watching China's annual National People's Congress (March 5) for potential policy support that could further boost steel and iron ore markets.
Investors eyeing the iron ore trade might look at VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>) for broad exposure.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Aluminium &amp; Zinc: Low Inventories, Limited Demand</h2>
Aluminium and zinc inventories are at multi-year lows, signaling tight supply. However, demand remains sluggish post-New Year, with aluminium inventories rising by 110kt last week. JPMorgan projects aluminium prices at $2,763 per ton for 2025, but stronger demand signals are needed for a sustained rally.
For those bullish on aluminium, iPath Series B Bloomberg Aluminum Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JJU#NYSE">JJU</a>) offers direct exposure.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Investors Await Next Big Move</h2>
China's metal markets are in flux—tight supplies and record-low inventories are colliding with sluggish post-holiday demand. 
JPMorgan's O'Kane sees China's upcoming policy moves as a key catalyst for the next leg in metal prices. 
With copper and iron ore already running hot, investors should keep an eye on ETFs like COPX, SLX, and PICK to position for the next big move.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43492445/critical-metal-demand-to-triple-by-2030-but-demographics-pose-risks">Critical Metal Demand To Triple By 2030, But Demographics Pose Risks</a></li>
</ul>

Analyst Color

Asia

Analyst Ratings

Trading Ideas

COPX

CPER

iPath DJ-UBS Aluminum Subindex Total Return ETN

PICK

China's Metal Markets Are Stirring - Here's What It Means for Commodity Investors

The latest round of tariffs on metal imports, announced by the Trump administration, is set to create significant investment opportunities in ETFs <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/02/43587918/donald-trumps-expected-tariffs-on-aluminum-steel-imports-may-impact-domestic-companies-heres-a-list-of-metal-etfs-that-could-be-affected">focused on U.S. steelmakers. </a>
With a 25% tariff now set to be imposed on all steel and aluminum imports, domestic steel producers are expected to gain market share and see rising profitability. A KeyBanc Capital Markets report shows how these tariffs could reshape the steel market, reducing finished steel imports by 14% year-over-year in 2025, primarily impacting sheet and plate steel. 
Analysts anticipate U.S. steel mills capturing market share previously held by foreign competitors, reinforcing the bullish outlook for U.S. steel companies-focused ETFs.
Three <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">standout ETFs</a> are VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>), SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>), and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAVE#BATS">PAVE</a>).
VanEck Steel ETF 
This is a direct play on the steel sector, offering concentrated exposure to leading steel manufacturers. With holdings in Nucor (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUE#NYSE">NUE</a>), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>), Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLD#NASDAQ">STLD</a>), and United States Steel Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>), the fund is well-positioned to benefit from higher domestic steel prices.
The new tariffs are expected to curb foreign steel imports, which accounted for a substantial share of the U.S. market. This will increase demand for domestically produced steel, boosting revenue for companies within SLX&#8217;s portfolio.
As steel prices rise, profit margins for U.S. steel producers will expand, which might be a boost for stock valuations.
Also Read: <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43613133/trumps-25-tarrifs-a-self-inflicted-wound-says-economist-amid-warnings-of-fewer-american-jobs-peter-schiff-says-youll-pay-more-for-cars-and-homes">Trump&#8217;s 25% Tarrifs A &#8216;Self-Inflicted Wound,&#8217; Says Economist Amid Warnings Of Fewer American Jobs — Peter Schiff Says You&#8217;ll Pay More For Cars And Homes</a>
SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF
XME provides broader exposure to the metals and mining sector but is still heavily weighted toward steel stocks like Steel Dynamics, Nucor and United States Steel Corp.
The tariff-induced price hikes on imported steel will force industries relying on metal, such as construction, automotive, and energy, to turn to U.S.-based suppliers. Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Nucor stand to gain from increased domestic sales, while higher scrap prices further support pricing power.
Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF
PAVE is a more diversified play, offering exposure to the broader infrastructure sector, which is a major consumer of steel. Infrastructure companies like Trane Technologies (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TT#NYSE">TT</a>) and Eaton Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ETN#NYSE">ETN</a>) are part of the ETF&#8217;s portfolio.
With increased steel demand for construction projects and infrastructure spending, U.S. steel producers will see long-term growth.
Supply And Demand Shift
KeyBanc projects U.S. real carbon steel demand to grow by around 2% in 2025 (compared to a 1-2% decline in 2024), supported by rebounds in oil &amp; gas, industrial, and construction sectors. Moreover, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices are expected to rise from $750 per ton to $810 per ton in 2025, buoyed by tariff-driven demand shifts and rising scrap prices.
KeyBanc analysts also upgraded Steel Dynamics to Overweight, citing improved operational efficiencies and pricing tailwinds.
The Trump administration's aggressive trade stance is designed to protect U.S. steelmakers from cheap foreign imports. KeyBanc said that analysts anticipate a boost in domestic steel production, with sector utilization rising to 78% in 2025.
Earnings Growth for Steel Stocks
Steel Dynamics: KeyBanc raised the estimated 2025 EBITDA to $2.57 billion from $2.13 billion, driven by higher utilization and rising steel prices.
Cleveland-Cliffs: The research firm raised EBITDA expectation to $1.034 billion amid improved demand for U.S.-made steel.
Nucor: Holding a Sector Weight rating, NUE's diversified steel operations make it a stable long-term play.
Parting Thoughts
The tariffs are set to create a favorable market for domestic steelmakers, and ETFs with significant exposure to U.S. steel stocks stand to gain. With KeyBanc's bullish outlook on steel demand and pricing, the ETFs discussed in this piece could see substantial upside in the months ahead.
Read Next:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43635740/eu-president-vows-firm-and-proportionate-countermeasures-after-trump-imposes-steel-aluminum-tariffs"> </a>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43635740/eu-president-vows-firm-and-proportionate-countermeasures-after-trump-imposes-steel-aluminum-tariffs">EU President Vows &#8216;Firm And Proportionate Countermeasures&#8217; After Trump Imposes Steel, Aluminum Tariffs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Vladimir Mulder/Shutterstock.com

PAVE

Trump's Metal Tariffs Set Stage For US Steel ETF Gains

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday vowed "firm and proportionate countermeasures" in response to President Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariffs on steel <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/forex/25/02/43617885/asia-markets-and-europe-mixed-gold-near-all-time-high-global-markets-today-while-us-slept">and aluminum imports.&nbsp;</a>
The Details: "Unjustified tariffs on the E.U. will not go unanswered — they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures," Von der Leyen said in a statement.
Von der Leyen did not detail which countermeasures are being considered, though it is expected that the E.U. will move<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43613133/trumps-25-tarrifs-a-self-inflicted-wound-says-economist-amid-warnings-of-fewer-american-jobs-peter-schiff-says-youll-pay-more-for-cars-and-homes"> to protect</a> its domestic steel and aluminum industries.&nbsp;
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/02/43600652/super-micro-computer-q2-earnings-preview-accounting-updates-nasdaq-deadline-on-watch">Super Micro Computer Q2 Earnings Preview: Accounting Updates, Nasdaq Deadline On Watch&nbsp;</a>
Maroš Šefčovič, European Commissioner on trade and economic security, called Trump's tariffs "a lose-lose scenario" and that the "time has come" for Europe to respond.&nbsp;&nbsp;
"We are currently assessing the scope of the measures announced overnight and will be responding in a firm and proportionate way by counter measures," he told members of the European Parliament on Tuesday.&nbsp;
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, the U.S. imported approximately four million metric tons of steel and 283,000 metric tons of aluminum from Europe in 2022.
Stock To Watch: Shares of steel companies, including United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLD#NYSE">STLD</a>) and Nucor Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUE#NYSE">NUE</a>), have reacted positively to Trump's tariffs set to take effect in March.&nbsp;
Investors can also monitor the steel industry through the VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) which provides targeted exposure to the steel sector.
Shares of aluminum companies like Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) and Century Aluminum Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CENX#NYSE">CENX</a>)&nbsp; are gaining Tuesday as investors digest the news.&nbsp;
Century Aluminum released <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/g43611888/century-aluminum-applauds-president-trumps-decisive-action-to-strengthen-section-232-tariffs">a statement</a> on Monday in support of the new tariff structure.&nbsp;
"Today's executive order implements a 25% tariff on all primary aluminum imports into the U.S. from all foreign countries and closes a loophole in the existing tariff that allowed nearly 75% of imports to avoid the tariff," the company said. 
"Closing these loopholes will protect good American jobs and our national security."
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/02/43535256/palantir-adds-elon-musks-ai-chatbot-grok-to-aip">Palantir Adds Elon Musk&#8217;s AI Chatbot Grok To AIP</a></li>
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Image: Shutterstock

Economics

EU President Vows 'Firm And Proportionate Countermeasures' After Trump Imposes Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he will impose new 25% <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43583123/trump-to-announce-25-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-economist-warns-president-is-making-us-manufacturing-globally-uncompetitive">tariffs</a> on all steel and aluminum imports, adding to existing duties, in a further escalation of his trade policy. While this could impact domestic steel and aluminum companies, investors can consider the following list of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to trade following the development.
What Happened: On his way to the NFL Super Bowl in New Orleans, Trump spoke to reporters on Air Force One, and said he would reveal the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43583123/trump-to-announce-25-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-economist-warns-president-is-making-us-manufacturing-globally-uncompetitive">new tariffs</a> on Monday, followed by reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, matching the rates imposed by other countries.
Tariffs impact domestic companies by influencing costs, competitiveness, and supply chains
According to a report by the First National Bank of Omaha and the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, the negative effects of tariffs include increased input costs, reduced competitiveness, disruption in supply chains, retaliation, diversion in investment, and reduced consumer spending. On the positive side, tariffs may temporarily protect domestic industries and generate government revenue.
Investors should look out for the following metal ETFs as Trump is likely to impose tariffs on imports.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Fund Name</td>
<td>AUM</td>
<td>Expense Ratio</td>
<td>Six Month Returns</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>)</td>
<td>$75.23 million</td>
<td>0.56%</td>
<td>-4.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBB#NYSE">DBB</a>)</td>
<td>$112.4 million</td>
<td>0.79%</td>
<td>2.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYM#NYSE">IYM</a>)</td>
<td>$534.51 million</td>
<td>0.39%</td>
<td>-0.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>)</td>
<td>$1623.5 million</td>
<td>0.35%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Iron ore, a key ingredient in steelmaking, saw its prices rise 0.71% in Singapore around 3:43 p.m. local time, while aluminum futures on the Comex gained 0.49%.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43583123/trump-to-announce-25-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-economist-warns-president-is-making-us-manufacturing-globally-uncompetitive">Trump To Announce 25% Steel And Aluminum Tariffs — Economist Warns President Is &#8216;Making US Manufacturing Globally Uncompetitive&#8217;</a> 
Why It Matters: Although Trump initially paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he has renewed threats by specifically targeting metals in his media interactions on Sunday.
According to the American Iron and Steel Institute&#8217;s January <a href="https://www.steel.org/2025/02/aisi-releases-january-sima-imports-data-4/">data</a>, the U.S. gets most of its imported steel from Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, followed by South Korea and Vietnam. 
&#8220;Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the U.S., from defence, shipbuilding, and auto,&#8221; said the Canadian Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, Francois-Philippe Champagne, in an X post.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Let's all be clear. Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the U.S. from defence, shipbuilding and auto. This is making North America more competitive and secure. We will continue to stand up for Canada, our workers, and our industries. <a href="https://t.co/NBFeU6Y8zN">pic.twitter.com/NBFeU6Y8zN</a>
&mdash; François-Philippe Champagne (FPC) &#x1f1e8;&#x1f1e6; (@FP_Champagne) <a href="https://twitter.com/FP_Champagne/status/1888754195727106310?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Citing the risks of these metal tariffs, Joseph Brusuelas, the principal and chief economist at RSM US said that other countries could follow to protect their economies, and a much larger trade war could ensue after these impositions by Trump.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">US-China Trade War: With Trump set to announce 25% tariffs on aluminum &amp; steel imports and the Chinese imposing $14 billion on trade taxes on U.S. good it is likely that a series of tit-for-tat retaliation has begun. A look at relative yield differentials between the US and… <a href="https://t.co/ACWRKgzlmg">pic.twitter.com/ACWRKgzlmg</a>
&mdash; Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) <a href="https://twitter.com/joebrusuelas/status/1888728283392667924?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/02/43521806/deepseeks-hedge-fund-owner-had-multiple-top-projects-before-creating-the-firm-that-fueled-1-trillion-market-cap-erosion-of-ai-stocks">DeepSeek&#8217;s Hedge Fund Owner Had Multiple Top Projects Before Creating The Firm That Fueled $1 Trillion Market Cap Erosion Of AI Stocks</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Donald Trump's Expected Tariffs On Aluminum, Steel Imports May Impact Domestic Companies: Here's A List Of Metal ETFs That Could Be Affected

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>) shares are trading lower Monday after the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/b43431003/cleveland-cliffs-provides-preliminary-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results" rel="noreferrer noopener"> company reported preliminary results</a>.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, Cleveland-Cliffs expects steel shipments of 3.8 million net tons, with revenues of around $4.30 billion <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">(vs. consensus of $4.49 billion)</a>.
Also, the company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $85 million in the quarter.
For 2024, steel shipments are expected to reach 15.6 million net tons, with revenues around $19.2 billion (vs. street view of $19.37 billion) and adjusted EBITDA of around $775 million.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/41690362">Including Stelco</a>, the pro-forma adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be about $1.2 billion.
Cleveland-Cliffs attributed its weaker results, particularly in fourth-quarter, to subdued demand from the North American automotive sector.
Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs&#8217; Chairman, President, and CEO, said, &#8221;So far into this new year, we have already seen improvements in our order book, both automotive and non-automotive, and are confident that the manufacturing-friendly items on President Trump&#8217;s agenda will have an outsized benefit on Cleveland-Cliffs.&#8221;
&#8221;This includes the recently announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China and the expectation that there is more to come on steel specifically. Stelco has been a major contributor since day 1 and a substantial portion of our expected synergies are already in motion. Based on their experience in 2018, we expect Stelco will benefit from steel tariffs as well. We look forward to the success in 2025 that all of these developments will ultimately bring.&#8221;
&#8220;We applaud President Trump for taking decisive action on tariffs. Cleveland-Cliffs is a firm believer in the long-term positive impact that tariffs can play to make America a manufacturing superpower once again.&#8221;
Apart from this, Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed its intention to offer $750 million in Senior Guaranteed Notes due 2031, subject to market <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/b43431022/cleveland-cliffs-inc-announces-proposed-offering-of-750-million-of-senior-unsecured-guaranteed-not" rel="noreferrer noopener">conditions and other factors</a>.
The company plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, which includes the repayment of borrowings under its asset-based credit facility.
The company plans to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">results on February 24, 2025</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) and VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>).
Price Action: CLF shares are down 2.64% at $9.97 at the last check Monday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43230432/ancora-holdings-readies-proxy-fight-at-us-steel-amid-merger-chaos" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ancora Holdings Readies Proxy Fight At US Steel Amid Merger Chaos</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Vladimir Mulder/Shutterstock.com.

Mid Cap

Cleveland-Cliffs Predicts Q4 Revenue Miss & EBITDA Loss, CEO Applauds Trump's Tariffs For 2025 Boost

GLJ Research analyst Gordon L. Johnson II upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>) to Buy from Sell rating with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/clf/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a price forecast of $14.27</a>.
The analyst notes the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many acknowledge. With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, and his pro-tariff policies likely impacting sectors like steel, the analyst foresee a potential rise in U.S. HRC prices in the near term.
In particular, the analyst says that following Trump&#8217;s win (November 2016), and Joe Biden&#8217;s win (November 2020), U.S. HRC spot prices rose by +25.5% and +65.9%, respectively, three months out. However, since Trump&#8217;s win on November 5, 2024, U.S. HRC spot prices have declined by 6.9%.
Also, the positive seasonality typically seen in the U.S. steel sector from January to April, and CLF&#8217;s stock performance in particular, raises the question: &#8220;Is now an opportune time to dip one&#8217;s feet back into the &#8216;long-U.S.-
steel-stocks pool&#8217;?&#8221; adds the analyst.
Notably, Johnson II states that from the month Trump was first elected to the month he lost to Biden, U.S. steel imports fell by a significant -51.1%, from 2.5 million tons to 1.2 million tons. This decline is often attributed to Trump&#8217;s pro-U.S. steel policies.
Incorporating Stelco&#8217;s additional tons into CLF&#8217;s 2025 estimated output, and assuming U.S. HRC prices rise to $900/ton in May 2025 before falling to $705/ton by July, the analyst estimate CLF&#8217;s 2025 aggregated steel price to be $1,055/ton, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $1,050.22/ton.
For 2026, Johnson II forecast an average price of $1,068/ton, reflecting a +1.2% year-over-year increase, vs. the consensus estimate of $1,084.42/ton.
Consequently, the analyst project 2025 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $945 million and -$0.56, respectively, vs. consensus estimates of $1.32 billion and -$0.09.
In 2026, the analyst expects adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $1.804 billion and $1.06, respectively, while the consensus estimates are $1.884 million and $0.69.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: CLF shares are up 1.26% at $10.03 at the last check Tuesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42825094/us-steel-nippon-steel-sue-biden-administration-cleveland-cliffs-union-in-response-to-blocked-merger" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Steel, Nippon Steel Sue Biden Administration, Cleveland-Cliffs, Union In Response To Blocked Merger</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by QinJin on Shutterstock.

Upgrades

Price Target

Analyst Sees US Steel Price Rebound Under Trump's Pro-Tariff Stance, Upgrades Cleveland-Cliffs Stock

Nucor Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUE#NYSE">NUE</a>) shares are trading lower premarket today. On Monday, the company provided fourth-quarter guidance, expecting EPS of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/12/n42519618/nucor-announces-guidance-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2024-earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">$0.55 &#8211; $0.65 vs. the consensus of $0.86</a>.
The primary factor driving the expected earnings decline is lower earnings in the steel mills segment due to decreased<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener"> volumes and lower average selling prices</a>.
The company projects earnings in the steel products segment to decline, reflecting the same trends. However, the raw materials segment is anticipated to see an increase in earnings, excluding the impairment charge from the third quarter of 2024.
Nucor reported net earnings of&nbsp;$1.05&nbsp;per share in the&nbsp;third quarter&nbsp;of 2024 and&nbsp;$3.16&nbsp;per share in the&nbsp;fourth quarter&nbsp;of 2023.
Notably, during the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/41439525" rel="noreferrer noopener">third-quarter earnings release</a>, Nucor stated that it expects the fourth quarter&nbsp;earnings per share to decrease compared to $1.05&nbsp;reported for the&nbsp;third quarter amid decreased steel mill segment earnings caused by lower average selling prices and decreased volumes.
In the fourth quarter, Nucor repurchased around 2.1 million shares at an average price of $149.81 per share, bringing the total year-to-date repurchases to 13.1 million shares at an average price of $168.75 per share.
Nucor has returned over $2.73 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividend payments so far this year.
In October, the company reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.49 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.47 and revenue of $7.44 billion, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $7.28 billion.
Nucor plans to release its fourth-quarter results on&nbsp;Monday, January 27, 2025.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>)&nbsp;and First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXZ#NYSE">FXZ</a>).
Price Action: NUE shares are down 1.51% at $122.29 premarket at the last check Tuesday.
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