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Goldman Sachs destaca ETF con grandes movimientos en días de la Reunión de la Fed. Sectores más impactados y estrategias clave para operar.

Goldman Sachs identifica 20 ETF con movimientos destacados en días de la Reunión de la Fed

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Market Summary

General

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Is Slightly Higher, Fed Releases Meeting Minutes, Gold And Silver Rise On Macro Uncertainty

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty as investors assess president-elect Trump's tariff policies.

NVDA

Benzinga Market Summary: NVIDIA Falls As Market Digests CES Announcements, S&P Slides As Yields Gain Following Economic Data, Gold And Silver Rise, Adobe Analytics Data Show Record Holiday Sales

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-23_08h02_56.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Profiting From Stock Market Hopium</h4>
An enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows Friday was an outside day.&nbsp; It is a bullish technical signal.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market hit the breakout line before bouncing.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI is close to oversold.</li>
<li>The set up shown on the chart is a good setup for a Santa Claus rally.</li>
<li>The chart shows the higher volume on Friday.&nbsp; This indicates conviction.</li>
<li>In the early trade, initially there was strong buying.&nbsp; As of this writing in the premarket, selling is coming in.</li>
<li>Momo gurus have a new narrative – after lower PCE data, the Fed will continue cutting rates.&nbsp; Momo gurus are urging their followers to ignore everything the FOMC said and everything Powell said in his press conference.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, in spite of bullish technical signals and bullish seasonality, investors should not ignore negative macro signals that arose from the FOMC decision and many investors in the stock market finally coming to the realization that the data does not support aggressive rate cuts.</li>
<li>Right now, the stock market is running up on hopium.&nbsp; Once Trump is inaugurated, the stock market will have to meet reality.</li>
<li>The Arora Report call is to consider taking partial profits on tactical positions between Christmas and New Years.&nbsp; Investors should be prepared to take more profits on tactical positions between New Year and Trump's inauguration.&nbsp; Open new tactical positions on dips and on new signals.</li>
<li>The Arora Report call is to continue to hold good strategic positions.</li>
<li>There is no change in the protection band.&nbsp; Please see details in the "Protection Band And What To Do Now" section below.&nbsp; For investors who are underinvested relative to the protection band and are aggressive, consider scaling in on strategic positions when they fall in the buy zones.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the ideal time to buy will be if there is a 6% &#8211; 10% correction.</li>
<li>Since Trump's election, across all services from The Arora Report, there have been 84 profit taking signals.&nbsp; This illustrates the power of combining tactical positions with taking partial profits on some strategic positions. Please see the Trade Management Guidelines for how to properly take partial profits.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C, Meta Platforms Inc, NVIDIA Corp, and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Trading Ideas

Bullish Technical Signal, Santa Claus Rally, Taking Advantage Of Hopium

As markets brace for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, scheduled at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, Goldman Sachs highlighted 20 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have historically shown outsized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">moves around Fed decision days</a>.
While a 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.50% is widely anticipated, the market's focus is on the Fed's forward guidance, particularly the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the updated &#8220;dot plot.&#8221;
Following December's expected cut, Goldman Sachs projects a more measured pace of easing next year, forecasting rate cuts in March, June, and September, with the terminal rate seen at 3.50%-3.75%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42554114/all-eyes-on-december-fed-meeting-as-traders-await-interest-rate-projections">All Eyes On December Fed Meeting As Traders Await Interest Rate Projections</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Dynamics Around Fed Days</h3>
U.S. equity markets have displayed strong short-term gains during Fed meeting weeks in 2024. 
Investors employing a simple strategy of buying the S&amp;P 500 index at market close before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and selling at close the following day have captured median returns of 1.1% across the past seven meetings.
Yet those extending the trade horizon to 15 sessions post-Fed meeting have enjoyed significantly larger average gains of 3.29%, more than double the short-term returns. Notably, every Fed meeting this year has resulted in positive 15-day returns.
"We observe that U.S. banking ETFs, such as SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), have seen unusually large moves on FOMC days since 2022" Goldman analysts wrote in a recent note.
For bond-focused investors, the report highlights consistent post-meeting gains in high-yield and investment-grade ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HYG#NYSE">HYG</a>) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>).
Meanwhile, energy-focused ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), have seen negative reactions. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs Showing Heightened Fed-Day Moves</h3>
Here's Goldman Sachs' list of 20 ETFs with the largest absolute moves – which include both positive and negative swing – on FOMC days:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>Focus</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move on FOMC since 2022</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move (Last 3 FOMC events)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF </td>
<td>Regional Banking</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>)</td>
<td>US Large Banks</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XBI#NYSE">XBI</a>)</td>
<td>Biotech</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>United States Oil Fund </td>
<td>Oil</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)</td>
<td>Technology</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>)</td>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)</td>
<td>Discretionary</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)</td>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>)</td>
<td>Financial</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)</td>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NASDAQ">EMB</a>)</td>
<td>EM Bond</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>HY Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>IG Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>7-10 Year Treasury</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TIP#NYSE">TIP</a>)</td>
<td>TIPS Bond</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Check Out: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42539116/fed-meetings-made-stock-traders-richer-in-2024-could-wednesday-bring-last-big-rally">Fed Meetings Made Stock Traders Richer In 2024: Could Wednesday Bring Last Big Rally?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-17_07h56_07.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Extreme Positive Sentiment</h4>
An enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock has gone parabolic.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent Arora buy signal.&nbsp; There is a 66.8% gain from the Arora buy signal in less than six weeks.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks tend to be susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>Yesterday's TSLA stock was ripping, in part, on rumors that Trump will change the law so that Tesla does not have to report car crashes to regulators.&nbsp; Regulators use this data to assess the safety of vehicles. To date, Tesla has had to report over 1500 crashes.</li>
<li>Investors are ignoring the news that the computers in Tesla's new cars are failing.&nbsp; TSLA stock should have been down on the news of the new car computers failing.&nbsp; Instead, TSLA stock ran higher.&nbsp; This is a prime example of what happens when sentiment is at the extreme positive.</li>
<li>TSLA stock is also moving higher in part because there is a new constituent of buyers for TSLA stock. These buyers are the ones who hate electric vehicles (EVs), are big Trump supporters, and are now buying TSLA stock because they see Tesla CEO Elon Musk with Trump.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, sales of EVs are going to fall.&nbsp; This is a risk to TSLA stock.&nbsp; However, bullish Tesla analysts already have a narrative – EVs no longer matter to Tesla because Tesla has Trump's support to change laws to benefit Tesla.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the future of Tesla is about autonomy, robotaxis, and robots; however, EVs are still very important to Tesla – robotaxis and autonomy are built on EVs.</li>
<li>Astute investors recognize that extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal.&nbsp; Profit taking by such investors in the early trade is overwhelming buying by the momo crowd.&nbsp; As we have written before, extreme positive sentiment is not a precise timing signal.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; The data is mixed; consumers are still aggressively buying cars but are pulling back on other purchases.&nbsp; Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>FOMC is starting its meeting today.&nbsp; The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C and Tesla.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Inc.,   Microsoft Corp, and NVIDIA Corp.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin continues to move higher as the rumor takes hold that Trump will announce the bitcoin reserve on day one.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

TSLA

Computers In New Tesla Cars Failing But Tesla Stock Rockets On Trump's Support

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1200" height="711" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7.png" alt="" class="wp-image-4139" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7.png 1200w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-300x178.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-1024x607.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-768x455.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Small Language Model</h4>
An enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows MSFT stock has climbed in December so far.</li>
<li>The chart shows support and resistance zones for MSFT.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows MSFT stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>The Arora Report previously shared with readers a major milestone in AI progress – human-like reasoning capabilities using chain link thinking in Model 4o from OpenAI.</li>
<li>ChatGPT-4o is a large language model.</li>
<li>In further AI progress, Microsoft has introduced Phi-4.&nbsp; Phi-4 is a small language model that outperforms GPT-4o in certain mathematical reasoning.&nbsp; Phi-4 is only a fraction of the size of GPT-4o.&nbsp; It appears that Phi-4 can do better in solving certain math problems compared to its teacher model GPT-4o.&nbsp; Also of note is that Microsoft trained Phi-4 mostly on synthetic data.</li>
<li>The foregoing is important for investors as investors need to get ahead of the curve.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, Phi-4 challenges the present belief that bigger is better.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, small language models such as Phi-4 have a very bright future.&nbsp; There is a fortune to be made in AI between now and 2030.&nbsp; However, it will not be in a straight line.&nbsp; At times, it will be treacherous.</li>
<li>There is excitement in the stock market this morning as it was announced Friday after the close that AI software company Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>) and big bitcoin holder MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) are being added to the Nasdaq 100.</li>
<li>The Arora Report has previously written that one of the things Trump can do to reduce inflation from his policies is to attract foreign investment to the U.S.&nbsp; In the first sign of success for Trump, Japan's SoftBank Group Corp &#8211; ADR (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SFTBY#OTC">SFTBY</a>) CEO Masayoshi Son will announce at Mar-a-Largo a $100B investment in the U.S. over the next four years.</li>
<li>There is also buying in the early trade as the market believes it is a certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates this week in spite of the data not supporting such a rate cut.</li>
<li>Markets in the U.S. are not being impacted by weakness in Europe and Asia as there was powerful pumping of stocks in the media over the weekend.&nbsp; Retail investors tend to be influenced by the weekend pump and buy on Monday morning.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">France</h4>
Moody's has cut France's credit rating.&nbsp; French stocks and bonds are falling.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">China</h4>
Markets all across the globe are being negatively impacted by weak retail sales data in China.
Retail sales in China came at 3.0% year-over-year vs 4.8% consensus.
Concern is building that the Chinese consumer is not spending in spite of stimulus measures by the government.
In The Arora Report analysis, investors should note the sharp contrast between U.S. consumers and Chinese consumers at this time.&nbsp; U.S. consumers are on a buying binge.&nbsp; Chinese consumers are holding back and are focused on savings.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc Class C , Meta Platforms Inc , NVIDIA Corp , and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Over the weekend, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) ran over $106,000 on a rumor that Trump will announce the bitcoin reserve on day 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Large Cap

$BTC

MSFT

MSTR

PLTR

SFTBY

AI Progress From Microsoft – Phi-4 Outperforms Human-like reasoner AI Model GPT-4o, Bitcoin Rumor

AVGO

COST

Benzinga Market Summary: Indexes Close Lower On Worse-Than-Expected PPI Data, Broadcom And Costco To Report After The Close, Gold And Silver Drop

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-12_07h55_05.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Inflation</h4>
An enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows the run up in TSLA stock.</li>
<li>The chart shows the Arora buy signal after the election.&nbsp; As of this writing, there is 50% gain in about five weeks from the Arora buy signal in TSLA.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows TSLA stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>The chart shows the nearest support zone.</li>
<li>TSLA stock has added $515B in value since Trump's election.&nbsp; The valuation of Tesla and SpaceX have been rising on the belief that Musk's close association with Trump will help his businesses. &nbsp; The rally in TSLA stock, along with the rising valuation of SpaceX, has made Elon Musk the first man ever to have a net worth of $400B.</li>
<li>The move yesterday in TSLA stock was initially triggered by General Motors Co&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) decision to stop development of robotaxis.&nbsp; The buying in TSLA stock on the GM news caused TSLA to breakout above the prior high.&nbsp; This brought in technically oriented buyers who buy the breakouts.&nbsp; The prior high was $414.49 on November 4, 2021.</li>
<li>After yesterday's sticky Consumer Price Index data that was not worse than expected, the market was certain the Fed will cut interest rates, so investors aggressively bought big tech stocks.&nbsp; Lower interest rates are good for big tech.</li>
<li>Producer Price Index (PPI) data came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reaction to PPI data is slight selling in stocks, bonds, and gold.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed is likely to ignore the hotter producer inflation data and cut interest rates next week.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 242K vs. 220K consensus. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed can use this data as an excuse to cut interest rates given the Fed's dual mandate.&nbsp;</li>
<li>To understand extreme positive sentiment right now, all a prudent investor needs to do is look at the valuation of Fartcoin (CRYPTO: FARTCOIN).&nbsp; Fartcoin is now worth $500M.&nbsp; What makes Fartcoin so valuable? It produces a digital fart sound on each transaction.</li>
<li>The positive sentiment is being enhanced this morning as President-elect Trump is going to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Switzerland</h4>
The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 50 bps, which was more than expected.&nbsp; This is the largest cut in nearly a decade.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h4>
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected.
Rate cuts in Europe influence the Fed to also cut interest rates.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is above $100,000.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

Hot Inflation Data But Fed Likely To Ignore It, Musk Becomes First $400 Billion Man

Gold and silver are trading higher. Middle East uncertainty may be lifting sentiment for safe-haven assets such as precious metals.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1200" height="739" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/09175329/image-5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3910" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/09175329/image-5.png 1200w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/09175329/image-5-300x185.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/09175329/image-5-1024x631.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/09175329/image-5-768x473.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Turkey Is Biggest Winner</h4>
An enlarged chart of iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TUR#NASDAQ">TUR</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;In Syria, the regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen after a lightning fast advance by rebels over 11 days. Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez al-Assad seized power in a military coup in November 1970.&nbsp; In a stunning development, the 54-year al-Assad rule of Syria has ended. Bashar al-Assad has been granted asylum in Russia.</li>
<li>Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's (HTS), the rebel group that captured Syria's capital Damascus, origin goes back to al-Qaeda.&nbsp; This group was essentially the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda.&nbsp; HTS is trying to rebrand itself with assurance to minorities and has so far, not engaged in violence. &nbsp;However, in The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should be aware that this is a rigid Islamist group that had once vowed to impose Sharia law.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is a power vacuum in Syria.&nbsp; The danger is the establishment of an Islamic caliphate.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the biggest winner from the situation in Syria is Turkey.</li>
<li>The chart shows stocks in Turkey are up.&nbsp; Foreign money is flowing into Turkish stocks this morning.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that Turkey ETF TUR is now at the top band of the resistance zone.</li>
<li>As clarity develops, there may be an opportunity in Turkey.&nbsp; The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging has continuously followed Turkey for 17 years.</li>
<li>Turkey is a member of NATO, but is also closely aligned with Russia.&nbsp; Turkey has also been a big supporter of Hamas in Gaza.</li>
<li>The U.S. relationship with Turkey lately has been tense.&nbsp; Now, Turkey will have more leverage against both the U.S. and Russia.</li>
<li>The U.S. has about 900 troops in Syria.&nbsp; The U.S. is conducting airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria to prevent ISIS from gaining power. &nbsp; Yesterday, the U.S. conducted 75 airstrikes in Syria.</li>
<li>The biggest losers are Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah.&nbsp; Russia has a naval base and an air base in Syria.&nbsp; The Russian naval base in Syria is Russia's only warm water naval base.</li>
<li>Due to the prospects of instability, investors are buying gold, silver, and oil.&nbsp; Investors are selling bitcoin and other cryptos.&nbsp; This again shows that bitcoin and cryptos are not a hedge against global instability.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, China is gearing up to fight Trump's potential tariffs.&nbsp; China has picked NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) as the first target.&nbsp; As a result, NVDA stock is seeing selling.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>China is promising stimulative monetary policy.&nbsp; Stocks in Hong Kong and Shanghai are jumping. &nbsp;Foreign money is flowing into China.&nbsp;</li>
<li>More inflation data is coming this week.&nbsp; Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday at 8:30am ET, and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; This data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is under $100K and seeing selling on Syria developments.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Emerging Markets

iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund

Power Vacuum In Syria Increases Geopolitical Instability, China Investigating Nvidia

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="628" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04201018/image-1024x628.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3818" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04201018/image-1024x628.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04201018/image-300x184.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04201018/image-768x471.png 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/04201018/image.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Making Money From Crowd Stampede</h4>
Chart of Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>). 
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of PLTR is being used to illustrate the point.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that PLTR stock has gone vertical.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that the Arora core position was bought at $20.15.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Arora trade around position signal was given.&nbsp; A trade around position is a technique used by billionaires and hedge funds that can dramatically increase returns and reduce risks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>As full disclosure, The Arora Report system is close to giving another signal for a new trade around position on PLTR.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Palantir is a defense contractor providing mostly AI-based software.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Being a defense contractor is a complex business.&nbsp; Historically, it has taken defense contractors a very long period, many acquisitions, and storied histories to become large.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>With Palantir, it is the first time that a company has become the largest defense contractor by market cap in the blink of an eye.&nbsp; More remarkable is that Palantir has achieved this feat not through a long storied history and not through acquisitions.&nbsp; Palantir has reached this status through a momo crowd and meme crowd stampede.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that money is to be made by taking advantage of momo crowd and meme crowd stampedes.&nbsp; Over the years, we have helped our members make money from these stampedes on a number of stocks.&nbsp; Of course, prudent investors should have risk controls in place and be patient.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>As full disclosure, PLTR was recently added to the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp;&nbsp;As full disclosure, Rtx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>)&nbsp;is also in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>RTX is the second largest defense contractor now by market cap.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Here is a comparison of a few key metrics between PLTR and RTX.
<ul>
<li>PLTR trailing PE is 354.&nbsp; RTX trailing PE is 34.</li>
<li>PLTR forward PE is 151.&nbsp; RTX forward PE is 19.&nbsp;</li>
<li>PLTR price/sales is 65.&nbsp; RTX price/sales is 2.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Based on the&nbsp;<a href="https://thearorareport.com/zyxmethod">ZYX Change Method</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://thearorareport.com/zyx-quantitative-screen">quantitative screen</a>, the highest reasonable valuation of PLTR is under $40.&nbsp; PLTR is trading at $71.74 as of this writing in the premarket.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The very long term Arora target for PLTR is $123 &#8211; $136.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The foregoing also illustrates the extreme positive sentiment in the stock market.&nbsp;</li>
<li>This morning, the stock market is front running Fed Chair Powell.&nbsp; Powell will be speaking later today.&nbsp; The hopium is that Powell will be dovish and indicate a rate cut is coming in spite of a large set of data showing that it is imprudent to cut rates at this time.</li>
<li>Buying in the early trade is largely focused on large cap tech stocks as well as speculative junk stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Also adding to the buying are comments on Salesforce Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NYSE">CRM</a>) and Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRVL#NASDAQ">MRVL</a>) conference calls regarding AI.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.&nbsp;
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp;&nbsp;The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

MRVL

Making Money From Crowd Stampede – Palantir Becomes Largest Defense Contractor In Blink Of An Eye

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-03_07h59_45.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Lack Of Sellers</h4>
Please click here for a chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that after a very shallow pullback, the stock market has moved higher.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that in this bullish environment, the breakout line acted as support.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume remains low during this rally.&nbsp; The interpretation in this case is that there are very few sellers. &nbsp;As a result, it does not take much for the market to go higher.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, here are the reasons for the lack of sellers:
<ul>
<li>Sellers want to wait until 2025 to book profits to defer paying taxes by one year.</li>
<li>Sentiment is extremely positive.</li>
<li>Complacency has set in among retail investors.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Professional traders and money managers are waiting for the year end chase by under performing money managers.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is overbought.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>China is responding to the latest U.S. sanctions on the export of certain semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>China has outright banned the export of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the U.S. &nbsp; China is also restricting export of graphite to the U.S.&nbsp; These materials are important in manufacturing certain semiconductors, night vision goggles, and certain parts of satellites.&nbsp; Among the beneficiaries of China's restrictions on exports to the U.S. is Mp Materials Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MP#NYSE">MP</a>).&nbsp; The stock is up about 13% as of this writing in the premarket.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>JOLTS jobs openings will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors are looking for clues to the jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report will play a major role in determining what the Fed does next.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).&nbsp;
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound, trading under $95,000.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Lack Of Sellers In The Stock Market, China Retaliates Against U.S.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-26_08h02_04.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying Opportunity Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-buying-opportunities-ahead-bitcoin-drop-bets-eww-mc-11262024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>President-elect Trump is threatening to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada using an executive order on his first day in office.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Mexico's president is responding by claiming that migrant caravans are no longer arriving at the U.S. border.&nbsp; She is also offering cooperation to stem the flow of drugs to the U.S.&nbsp;</li>
<li>If negotiations with Mexico do not go well, stocks in Mexico will be decimated.&nbsp; That will likely be an opportunity for long-term investors to back up the truck and buy stocks in Mexico.&nbsp; The reason is that there are simply not enough people in the U.S. to support economic growth and on-shoring of all of the manufacturing from China.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows Mexico ETF EWW is oversold.&nbsp; However, EWW can become more oversold.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Mexico ETF EWW can easily fall to the top support zone shown on the chart.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the back up the truck buying opportunity will tentatively occur if Mexico ETF EWW falls to the lower support zone shown on the chart.&nbsp; However, this is all data dependent.&nbsp; Investors should carefully follow the data points.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors need to look ahead and be prepared if the opportunity in Mexico arises.&nbsp; Mexico has been continuously covered in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging for 17 years.&nbsp; As full disclosure, if there is a back up the truck buying opportunity, a signal will be made in The Arora Report&#8217;s Real Time Feed of ZYX Emerging.&nbsp; In a buy signal, the support zone is only one of many factors.&nbsp; The algorithms used by The Arora Report are highly complex and combine the best elements of macro analysis, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and quantitative analysis with an overlay of change.&nbsp; Identifying change early and being prepared to capture opportunity leads to big gains.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Trump is also threatening Canada with steep tariffs.  If Canadian stocks are decimated, there will be an opportunity to buy Canada ETF iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>).  Again, investors need to be prepared ahead of time to capture the opportunity if it arises.  As full disclosure, a signal to buy Canadian stocks will be in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.  </li>
<li>Yesterday evening, when the news broke of Trump's tariff plan, stock futures were first quickly sold.&nbsp; Then, the momo crowd stepped in and has been aggressively buying the dip.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There are important developments in bitcoin.&nbsp; Please scroll down to the bitcoin section below.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and&nbsp;Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
At a time when almost everyone is bullish on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) and cryptos, money flows are at a record to short bitcoin.  As an example, money flows in ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (ARCA: SBIT) were at a record $18.8M yesterday.  Of course, money flows in short bets on bitcoin pale in comparison to money flows in long bets.  
Bitcoin whales took profits in the zone of $93,000 &#8211; $98,000, taking advantage of super excited retail investors.&nbsp; At a time when retail investors were converting their dollars into bitcoins, bitcoin whales were converting their bitcoins into dollars. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Back Up The Truck Buying Opportunities May Be Ahead, Record Bets On Bitcoin Drop

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-25_08h01_16-scaled.jpg" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bessent Trade</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-shift-away-from-nvidia-bessent-trade-mstr-nvda-mc-11252024">click here</a> for a chart comparing NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>).&nbsp;
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows Microstrategy (MSTR) is up over 70% since Trump's re-election.</li>
<li>The chart shows Nvidia (NVDA) on the other hand is down about 2.5% since Trump's re-election.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is a sharp difference between Nvidia and Microstrategy.
<ul>
<li>Nvidia has developed world changing chips for artificial intelligence.</li>
<li>Microstrategy buys bitcoin and is a leveraged way to play bitcoin. At one time, MSTR market cap rose to over 300% of the value of the bitcoin it owned.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Traders have shifted from NVDA being their favorite stock to MSTR being their favorite stock. &nbsp;</li>
<li>Here is how Microstrategy's business model works:
<ul>
<li>Microstrategy raises money by selling stocks and bonds.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Microstrategy uses the proceeds to buy bitcoin.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Microstrategy highly publicizes its plans to buy bitcoin.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Microstrategy buying runs up bitcoin.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The run up in bitcoin prompts traders to super aggressively buy more MSTR stock.</li>
<li>The super aggressive buying runs up MSTR stock.</li>
<li>Microstrategy takes advantage of the run up in its stock to buy more bitcoin.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Microstrategy continues to repeat the process, and traders continue to buy more MSTR stock, running it up higher.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Nvidia's business model is to continuously innovate and progressively produce more powerful chips and software to advance AI.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>72.5% outperformance shown on the chart of MSTR over NVDA is a great indicator for prudent investors of the sentiment in this market.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors are buying stocks and cryptos with total abandon.&nbsp; If it was not for the positive seasonality and year end chase, this kind of reckless buying would have resulted in increasing the protection band because extreme positive sentiment is historically a sell signal. &nbsp;However, The Arora Report call remains to buy the dips because the year end chase is likely to trump all other factors.&nbsp; In year end chase, even bearish money managers aggressively buy stocks to keep up with their benchmarks.</li>
<li>Trump has picked Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary.&nbsp; Bessent is a Wall Street insider.&nbsp; Elon Musk had previously tweeted that the selection of Bessent would mean business as usual.&nbsp; Wall Street is celebrating Bessent's selection by starting to shift from the Trump trade to the Bessent trade. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, the Bessent trade and the Trump trade have some common elements, but they also have some opposing elements. &nbsp;Here is a summary of the Bessent trade:
<ul>
<li>Buy stocks, especially financial stocks and highly speculative stocks.</li>
<li>Buy bonds.&nbsp; Yields are falling across the board.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Sell the dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Sell gold and silver.</li>
<li>Sell oil.</li>
<li>Moderating manic buying in cryptos, including bitcoin.&nbsp; There are always crosscurrents.&nbsp; Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, is indicating that Microstrategy will be buying bitcoin today from the $3B raised from a bond sale. </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consumer confidence data will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, consumer confidence has risen after Trump's re-election.&nbsp; The consensus is 113.&nbsp; Expect the stock market to react positively to the number irrespective of what it comes at because of the extreme positive sentiment.&nbsp; When market sentiment is at an extreme positive, the stock market goes up even on bad news. &nbsp;</li>
<li>FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the minutes are not likely to show any surprise, and as such, the market reaction may be muted.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Shift From Nvidia To This Stock As The Favorite, Traders Moving From Trump Trade To Bessent Trade

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-22_07h31_01-scaled.jpg" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">AI Frenzy Shifts</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-ai-frenzy-shift-software-stocks-igv-smh-mc-11222024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart comparing VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>) and iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IGV#BATS">IGV</a>).&nbsp;
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The Arora Report previously shared with readers that the next stage of AI would benefit software stocks.&nbsp; This is beginning to happen now.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows software ETF IGV has moved up since the presidential election.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that IGV has outperformed semiconductor ETF SMH by about 10% since the election.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The Arora Report algorithms show money is flowing out of semiconductors and into software.</li>
<li>AI allows work processes to be totally reimagined compared to work processes of today.&nbsp; Work processes of today are implemented with legacy software.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, it is an order of magnitude more efficient to use reimagined processes with AI native software.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is a battle brewing among software companies for market share when it comes to AI capabilities.&nbsp; Legacy software companies have existing customers and cash to invest in AI.&nbsp; Legacy software companies are bolting on AI offerings.&nbsp; AI native software companies have an edge technologically.&nbsp; However, they do not have an existing market share.&nbsp; Promising AI native software companies are privately held.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The foregoing tells us that AI will end up decimating some software companies while others will go to new heights.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors need to look forward.&nbsp; Right now, most investors who are investing in software companies are looking backwards.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Looking forward to 2030, the best way to capture AI opportunities in software companies is to combine the following three:
<ul>
<li>Profiting from a base position in a software ETF.&nbsp; The Arora Report's software ETF of choice is IGV.&nbsp; As full disclosure, IGV is in The Arora Report's ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Profiting from individual software company stocks that are evolving and keeping pace with AI developments and retaining and attracting customers.&nbsp; An example is PLTR and as full disclosure, PLTR was recently added to The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Profiting from shorting software companies whose business models are being hurt by AI.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>A judicious combination of the foregoing will produce significantly higher risk adjusted returns, compared to using only one of the three in your investments.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is aggressively buying junk stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
Chinese stocks are ultra cheap.&nbsp; The rally in Chinese stock has stalled after Trump's re-election.&nbsp; Trump wants to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.&nbsp; In the face of Trump's threat, China's 10 year note auction saw strong demand.&nbsp; The pricing was close to the record low yield.&nbsp; This data point indicates that investors believe China will manage just fine with Trump's tariffs.&nbsp;&nbsp;
In The Arora Report analysis, it is important to keep track of such data points. &nbsp;If there are more such data points, it will be time to step into Chinese stocks because they are so cheap.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).&nbsp;
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is approaching $100K. SEC Chair Gensler has said that he will resign on Trump's inauguration day.&nbsp; Gensler has been anti-bitcoin.&nbsp; Even though Gensler's resignation was expected, as Trump has said he would replace Gensler, buying came into bitcoin on the news.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Opportunities For Investors As AI Frenzy Shifts From Semiconductors To Software

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-21_08h52_20.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nvidia Dips Aggressively Bought</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-nvidia-earnings-nvda-mc-11212024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point. As full disclosure, NVDA is part of The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dip in NVDA stock has been aggressively bought.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA stock dipped into the support zone after earnings.&nbsp; The buying in NVDA this morning has been extremely aggressive as illustrated by the fact that NVDA traded as high as $149.40 vs. the prior high of $149.77.</li>
<li>The chart shows the NVDA bounced from the support zone to the resistance zone.</li>
<li>As of this writing, NVDA stock is very volatile.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, a tell for the stock market will be to see if NVDA stock breaks out or retraces back to the support zone.</li>
<li>Nvidia reported earnings better than the consensus numbers, better than some whisper numbers, but less than the top end of the whisper numbers.</li>
<li>Overheating was a big concern going into earnings.&nbsp; It appears that most of the overheating issues have been resolved.&nbsp; Here are the key points from Nvidia earnings:
<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said, "The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to Nvidia computing."</li>
<li>Blackwell demand is likely to exceed supply in FY26.</li>
<li>Hopper demand is also very strong.</li>
<li>Nvidia is working on the next data center architecture that will improve production yields.</li>
<li>Nvidia expects enterprise AI, industrial AI, and robotics to continue to increase.</li>
<li>Nvidia beat on revenue.
<ul>
<li>Data center revenue and automotive revenue hit records.</li>
<li>Gaming revenue increased 15% from last year.</li>
<li>Professional visualization revenue increased 17% from last year.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The fact that NVDA dips are being aggressively bought is helping the overall stock market.</li>
<li>Also helping the stock market this morning is Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) approaching $100K.</li>
<li>Sentiment is extremely positive.</li>
<li>Investors are buying stocks and cryptos with total abandon.&nbsp; If it was not for the positive seasonality and year end chase, this kind of reckless buying would have resulted in increasing the protection band because extreme positive sentiment is historically a sell signal.&nbsp; However, The Arora Report call remains to buy the dips because the year end chase is likely to trump all other factors.&nbsp; In year end chase, even bearish money managers aggressively buy stocks to keep up with their benchmarks.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 213K vs. 221K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the job market is very strong.&nbsp; This is another data point that shows that the Fed should not have been cutting interest rates as aggressively as it did. In the short term, the Fed's actions have poured gasoline over the fire to aggressively buy stocks and cryptos.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">First ICBM Fired</h3>
The first operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was developed by Russia in 1957, followed by development by the U.S. in 1959.&nbsp; To the best of our knowledge, Russia has fired the first ICBM in battle since its invention.&nbsp; This is Russia's response to Ukraine firing U.S. and British long range missiles on Russian territory.
In The Arora Report analysis, both Russia and Ukraine are escalating the conflict to gain an advantage before Trump stops the war.&nbsp; These developments have major implications for investors.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Problem For India</h3>
Gautam Adani is the most important industrialist in India.&nbsp; He is also very closely allied with India&#8217;s Prime Minister Modi.&nbsp; The U.S. Department of Justice has just indicted Adani for bribes in solar contracts.
The Indian stock market has fallen on the news.  In The Arora Report analysis, some foreign money is going to flow out of India on this development.  The Arora Report call has been to steadily take partial profits on India positions Fairfax India Holdings Corp (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFXDF#OTC">FFXDF</a>), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>), iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>), and VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>).  The Arora Report&#8217;s call yesterday evening was to take more partial profits on India positions.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin is approaching $100K.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

News

FFXDF

GLIN

SMIN

Nvidia Aggressively Bought, Russia Fires First Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, Adani Indicted

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-18_08h07_41-scaled.jpg" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Trump Trade</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-trump-tesla-dogecoin-xbi-mc-11182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart comparing SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XBI#NYSE">XBI</a>) to Dogecoin to United States Dollar (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that biotech XBI has lost 5.35% since Trump's election.&nbsp; Companies in this ETF are producing innovative life saving drugs, employ brilliant scientists, own significant intellectual property, and are often bought out at large premiums.</li>
<li>The chart shows that Dogecoin has gained 48.78% since Trump's election.&nbsp; Dogecoin was initially developed as a joke.&nbsp; At one time, it was endorsed by Elon Musk; its name is the same as the acronym of Trump's Department of Government Efficiency.&nbsp; The main use of Dogecoin is speculation by the meme crowd.&nbsp; Dogecoin has an active meme crowd community behind it.</li>
<li>The contrast between the performance of XBI and Dogecoin shown on the chart is emblematic of, in large part, what investors are buying and selling in the wake of Trump's re-election.</li>
<li>On top of investors rushing into speculative assets, sentiment is extremely positive.&nbsp; Historically, extremely positive sentiment is a contrary indicator.&nbsp; In plain English, it means sell.&nbsp; As we have previously stated, sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.</li>
<li>In spite of all the warning signals, The Arora Report call remains to buy the dips.&nbsp; There are two main reasons:
<ul>
<li>There is an old saying on Wall Street that no one has ever been fired for losing clients' money.&nbsp; However, money managers get fired for lagging far behind their benchmarks.&nbsp; No money manager, irrespective of his/her view of the market, wants to commit career suicide by not chasing the market at the year end. Bearish money managers who have missed out on this rally are likely to buy the dips and chase the stock market into the year end.</li>
<li>Right now, hopium is at an extreme.&nbsp; There is nothing in the way of hopium.&nbsp; Since Trump is not yet president, there is no reality to confront hopium.&nbsp; Right now, the momo crowd is buying based on the best case of all of the positives that may come out of Trump's policies, and they are ignoring all of the negatives.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The plan is to start taking profits on new buys before hopium meets reality between Christmas and Trump's inauguration.&nbsp;</li>
<li>As a note of caution, this is not a call for wholesale buying.&nbsp; This is a call to buy on the margin based on the protection band.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Trump's transition team is starting the work to help those who helped Trump get elected.&nbsp; An example is the Trump team wanting to change the rules around self-driving cars in the U.S. to help Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).&nbsp; Musk has been a big supporter of Trump.&nbsp; Over a period of time, expect many such moves from Trump's team.&nbsp; As a full disclosure, The Arora Report gave a signal to buy TSLA after Trump's win.&nbsp; The trade has been nicely profitable.&nbsp; The system has also triggered a signal for a trade around position in TSLA, but publication of the signal may be delayed because TSLA stock has gapped up significantly.</li>
<li>Trump has appointed Chris Wright as the next Department of Energy Secretary.&nbsp; Wright is the CEO of Liberty Energy Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LBRT#NYSE">LBRT</a>).&nbsp; Liberty Energy is engaged in fracking. Wright is also on the board of smart modular reactor company Oklo Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OKLO#NYSE">OKLO</a>) that is backed by OpenAI founder Sam Altman.&nbsp; Money is flowing into gas and nuclear stocks on Wright's appointment.</li>
<li>The most important event for the market this week is NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) earnings that will be released on Wednesday after the close.&nbsp; This morning, NVDA is seeing aggressive selling because of a report of Blackwell chips heating up in data centers.</li>
<li>In the early trade, retail investors are aggressively buying Trump stocks based on the weekend pump.&nbsp; Professional investors are front running retail investors as they hope to sell at higher prices to retail investors later.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), TSLA, and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

$DOGE

LBRT

OKLO

A Must See Chart For Prudent Investors, Trump To Help Tesla Dominate, Nvidia Heat Problem

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-15_08h38_46.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Powell Speaks The Truth</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-powell-speech-trump-appointments-spy-mc-11152024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp; Our sole job is to help our members extract the maximum amount of money out of the markets with the least possible risk.</li>
<li>The price action on the chart shows that the rip roaring Trump rally is taking a breather.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is still above the breakout line.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market has pulled back, reflecting a loss of momentum. The stock market is still overbought.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume remains low.&nbsp; This indicates that institutional investors are not rushing to buy stocks.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Powell spoke that truth – the market did not like it.&nbsp; Powell said, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates."&nbsp; Powell elaborated, "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."</li>
<li>Powell's remarks brought some selling into stocks and bonds.</li>
<li>This morning, in the early trade, selling continues.</li>
<li>The reason for some selling is that the prevailing wisdom on Wall Street has been that another rate cut in December was a sure thing.&nbsp; The Arora Report has been questioning Wall Street's wisdom and sharing with you that the data does not support another rate cut.</li>
<li>Some conservative commentators are upset believing that the reason Powell started rate cuts with a 50 bps cut was to help Kamala Harris get elected.&nbsp; Now that Trump has been elected, Powell is in no hurry to cut rates.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, even though the data does not support a rate cut in December, Powell is going to feel pressure from Trump and Republicans to cut rates.&nbsp; There is also a significant amount of data between now and the December Fed meeting.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, based on a 360 degree view, including the political pressure and the pressure from Wall Street to cut rates, the probability of a rate cut in December is now about 60%.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is consternation about several Trump picks.&nbsp; Impacting the market most are Trump's picks of RKF Jr, Matt Gaetz, and Pete Hegseth.&nbsp; These picks are bringing selling in vaccine makers such as Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>), BioNTech SE ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNTX#NASDAQ">BNTX</a>), Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVAX#NASDAQ">NVAX</a>), Merck &amp; Co Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRK#NYSE">MRK</a>), and Pfizer Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PFE#NYSE">PFE</a>).&nbsp; There is also selling in other healthcare stocks, including weight loss drug companies Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>), and packaged food stocks such as The Kraft Heinz Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KHC#NASDAQ">KHC</a>).&nbsp; There is also selling in defense stocks such as Boeing Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOC#NYSE">NOC</a>), and Rtx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>).&nbsp; There is also selling in big tech stocks.</li>
<li>The latest economic data is strong.&nbsp; The U.S. economy is about 70% consumer based.&nbsp; For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.&nbsp; Here are the details of the just released data:
<ul>
<li>Retail sales came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>There are hundreds of indicators.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, the system has been refined through decades of research to share with you only those indicators that matter.&nbsp; Normally, we do not mention the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index.&nbsp; Today, we are mentioning it due to its exceptional strength.&nbsp; The index came at 31.2 vs. 3.3 consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that manufacturing in the New York area has picked up steam. &nbsp; If similar strength is happening in the rest of the country, that would argue against further cutting interest rates. The problem for investors is that stock valuations are so high that to sustain them, rate cuts are needed.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Even the slightest dips in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) are being bought.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Politics

BNTX

MRNA

NVAX

Powell Speaks The Truth - Market Does Not Like It, Consternation About Kennedy, Gaetz, And Hegseth

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-13_08h38_15.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Extreme Sentiment</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-inflation-data-cpi-government-efficiency-tlt-mc-11132024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, bonds have the potential to spoil the stock market's party.&nbsp; Prudent investors need to keep an eye on bonds.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that yields are pulling back in the early trade after the release of the Consumer Price Index.</li>
<li>The chart shows that on Trump's win, TLT approached the high band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the momo crowd ran TLT up back into the bottom resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TLT failed to breakout above the bottom resistance zone and has now pulled back below the bottom band of the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows two spot on Arora calls:
<ul>
<li>Contrary Arora call that bonds will fall when the Fed cut rates. This call was made at a time when everyone was buying bonds.</li>
<li>Arora call on the impact of the election on bonds</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Inflation data came inline with consensus. &nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to the fact that the 0.3% core inflation rate is 3.6% annualized.&nbsp; The Fed's stated target is 2%.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The extreme positive sentiment is evident from the following this morning in the early trade:
<ul>
<li>Bonds rose and yields fell on inflation data.</li>
<li>Stock futures were lower prior to the data. Aggressive buying came into stocks after the data.&nbsp; Buying is aggressive in Trump linked stocks such as Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).</li>
<li>&nbsp;Bitcoin was pulling back before CPI was released.&nbsp; Aggressive buying came in after the release of the data.</li>
<li>None of the foregoing would make sense based on the data alone, but Wall Street's thinking is that the Fed will be under pressure from Trump to cut rates in December – the fact that the data does not support a rate cut does not matter because of the political pressure.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Momo gurus are already out with a new reason to buy stocks – inflation was hot but not worse than expected.</li>
<li>Trump has announced that Musk and Ramaswamy will head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).&nbsp; On a lighter note, Doge is the crypto coin that was developed as a joke and subsequently championed by Musk.&nbsp; An indication of extreme sentiment is that the joke coin is now worth more than Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>).&nbsp; On a serious note, if Musk is truly able to cut $2T out of the federal budget, expect a recession and a 20% &#8211; 40% drop in the stock market.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the primary driving force behind this stock market rise is the excess money in the system.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims and Producer Price Index will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and maybe market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
There is a sigh of relief in Chinese and Asian markets in that even though Trump is appointing China hawks, he has not appointed extreme China hawks so far.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>),&nbsp;Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing aggressive buying.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Buying In Stocks On Inflation Data, Musk And Ramaswamy Doge

China's economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, accelerating from 4.6% in the third quarter and beating expectations of 5%.

China's GDP Data Beat Expectations Of 5%

The gold and silver EFP market has been in the news quite a bit over the past few weeks.

Gold And Silver Futures And The EFP Market Explained

Gold grabs third straight weekly gain on safe-haven demand ahead of Trump tariffs

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Metal Markets Report For Thursday, Jan 16

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds steady after three consecutive days of gains, trading near $30.80 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Maintains Position Above $30.50 Amid Strong Chinese Data

Are Silver Markets Sleepwalking Into A Supply Shortage?

Stock market sentiment, trends, and money flows all seem to be warning of one last, big rally -- or that a stock market crash could start.

A Pivotal Turning Point For The Stock Market

Investors are rejoicing after a second round of slightly cooler inflation figures. Stocks are surging, gold and silver are rallying, and interest rates and the dollar are dropping.

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