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Futures traders are navigating a minefield <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">as new tariffs</a> send shockwaves across equities, commodities and Treasuries.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Hate Surprises — Especially This Big</h1>
Jim Cagnina, senior market analyst at NinjaTrader, isn't surprised by the ripple effect. "Markets are inherently averse to uncertainty — especially at the scale we&#8217;re seeing with the new tariff regime," he said in an exclusive interview with Benzinga.
With inflation, raw material volatility and global supply chain risks rising, the market&#8217;s mood has clearly shifted to "risk-off."
The S&amp;P 500 futures are already down nearly 15% from their February peak, and Treasuries are feeling the pressure too. "U.S. Treasuries are also selling off big time with the 10 year yield tapping 4.5% in overnight trading," Cagnina noted, calling out the "48-basis-point move" seen last week, as one of the sharpest he&#8217;s seen in years.
As volatility hits the bond market, ETFs like the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>) or ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) may help traders express views on yields and rate moves.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44782555/10-year-treasury-yields-touch-45-amid-growing-tariff-uncertainty">Treasury Yields Hit 3-Year Record Surge Amid Trump Tariff Fears: What Investors Should Know</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Crude, Diesel, Metals Are Suddenly Hot</h1>
While some investors retreat, others are leaning in. Cagnina sees an upside in chaos — particularly in energy and metals.
"This environment is creating real opportunities in the energy space — particularly in Crude Oil, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel and Gasoline futures," he said. Traders looking to ride the tariff-driven momentum in energy could consider the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) or Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>), which offer targeted access to oil and broad energy equities, respectively.
Precious metals are also coming alive. "The bullish case for silver is strong and gaining momentum," he added, pointing to persistent supply deficits. Gold, meanwhile, is "finally acting like the risk-off safe haven many investors have been waiting for."
With Cagnina bullish on silver and gold, ETFs like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) offer a liquid way to gain exposure without diving into futures directly.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Where's The Bottom? Watch These Numbers</h1>
For those brave enough to dip into equities, the magic number is 5000 for S&amp;P 500 futures. "The 5000 level has become a key level – sticky, yet still highly reactive," Cagnina explained. 
If it holds and daily price ranges tighten, that could suggest a bottom is in. Even stronger confirmation would come from a close above 5330, a key Fibonacci level that could flip sentiment from bearish to bullish, noted Cagnina.
For those eyeing a rebound in equities, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) remains the benchmark bet, while Invesco S&amp;P 500 Pure Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RPV#NYSE">RPV</a>) could appeal to bargain hunters anticipating a turnaround.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Every Day Is An Adventure</h1>
To time the turn, Cagnina recommends keeping an eye on the 8-period Exponential Moving Average near 5300. A close above it would be his green light to shift bullish. 
Until then? "Every day is an adventure,&#8221; he said.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44787818/sp-500-could-tank-to-4000-if-trump-put-fizzles-says-jpmorgan">S&amp;P 500 Could Tank To 4,000 If &#8216;Trump Put&#8217; Fizzles, Says JPMorgan</a></li>
</ul>
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ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury

EXCLUSIVE: Tariff Uncertainty Turns Traders Cautious — But Oil, Silver Might Be The Escape Hatch, Says Market Analyst

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar index. Trade war concerns and macro uncertainty could lift demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold surged past $3,100, setting a new intra-day high on Monday morning at $3,128 per ounce. Investors rush to safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, including President Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts and a new round of reciprocal tariffs set to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44502030/trump-may-slap-a-20-tariff-on-europe-yet-april-still-offers-rally-hopes-for-european-stocks" rel="noreferrer noopener"> take effect on April 2</a>.
"Tariff issues will continue driving (gold) prices higher until there is some finality to the tit-for-tat campaign," Edward Meier said per Reuters.
The yellow metal gained nearly 19% in 2025, propped by geopolitical concerns and central bank demand. Over the last 15 years, foreign ownership of US treasuries has converged with gold as a percent of central bank reserves. Treasury ownership sank from 25%, while gold reserves rose from 7% to reach the 15% mark.
As gold continues to break records, major financial institutions have revised their price forecasts upward. Goldman Sachs expects it to reach $3,300 per ounce by the end of the year, up from its previous target of $3,100.
Bank of America sees the yellow metal at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44499732/bank-of-america-sees-new-gold-as-a-buy-lifts-price-target-by-50" rel="noreferrer noopener">$3,063 per ounce in 2025 </a>and $3,350 per ounce in 2026, a significant increase from earlier projections of $2,750 and $2,625, respectively. Macquarie has similarly pointed to strong central bank demand and investor inflows as key drivers behind gold's bullish trend.
Despite silver's solid performance, it has not yet exceeded the high from last October, when it traded at $34.78 per ounce. The gold-to-silver ratio, a popular measure of metal's relative performance, has widened, reflecting gold's stronger momentum.
It now takes 91 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold, suggesting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43615367/peter-schiff-predicts-silvers-explosive-catch-up-move-as-the-gold-to-silver-ratio-crosses-901-analysts-foresee-silver-prices-to-touch-38-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">silver may be undervalued</a>. Historically, traders use this ratio to determine whether to favor gold or silver in their portfolios. When the ratio is high, some investors buy silver, expecting it to outperform gold in the future. Conversely, when the ratio is low, they may shift holdings into gold.
Still, pursuing this strategy doesn't require physical exchange and storage of metal. Trading the ratio is convenient through specialized ETFs that offer exposure to metals. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) provide direct exposure to gold, while iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) is a popular option for silver investors. A trader would buy the gold ETF when the ratio is at the lower historical levels and eventually swap for a stake in silver when it gets high.
More aggressive strategies might employ leveraged ETFs like ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UGL#NYSE">UGL</a>) and ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGQ#NYSE">AGQ</a>), which correspond to double the daily performance of the underlying benchmark.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44544885/record-high-gold-prices-start-to-scare-some-investors-as-inflation-anchor-crumbles" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">‘My Spidey Tingles' — Gold's Surge Has Some Investors On Edge</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

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News

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Media

Gold Surges Past $3,100 As Tariff Uncertainty Sets Silver Ratio Trade

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-03-19_08h15_02.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Dot Plot And Balance Sheet</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-agents-robots-nvidia-turkey-president-nvda-mc-03192025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after a much anticipated keynote speech by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, NVDA stock pulled back to the top band of the mini support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows aggressive buying ahead of Huang's speech in anticipation of NVDA stock going higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the momo crowd's expectations were not met.&nbsp; Those in the momo crowd who primarily buy call options are now sitting on large losses.</li>
<li>Huang's speech was excellent.&nbsp; Here are the key points from The Arora Report's analysis:
<ul>
<li>Nvidia is doing excellent as a company.&nbsp; There is a disconnect between NVDA stock price and Nvidia as a company.</li>
<li>The biggest market of all will be the market for robots.&nbsp; Nvidia is well positioned to provide AI intelligence and systems for robots.</li>
<li>Human-like AI agents are at the cusp of widespread adoption.&nbsp; These agents are based on reasoning models.&nbsp; Reasoning models need significantly more compute than regular models.&nbsp; AI agents will drive demand for Nvidia's chips.</li>
<li>Nvidia is moving into autonomous driving.&nbsp; Nvidia announced a deal with General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>).</li>
<li>Nvidia is widening its lead over competitors.</li>
<li>Nvidia is strengthening its moat.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Here is the question everyone is asking: In spite of so many positives, why did NVDA stock not rocket up?  </li>
<li>We have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44380831/the-opposite-of-what-wall-street-told-you-about-stocks-has-happened-key-nvidia-event-ahead">previously shared</a> with readers that the problem NVDA stock has is over-ownership.</li>
<li>Nvidia illustrates the beauty of the highly refined, multilayer methodology followed by members of The Arora Report.
<ul>
<li>The original core position in NVDA stock is long from $12.55 and most of the position is still being held.&nbsp; This illustrates the power of the ZYX Change Method to buy a stock when it is in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ppp-long-trade-ppp">stage one</a>.</li>
<li>The fact that most of the position is still being held, resulting in major gains, shows the foresight that comes from decades of experience.</li>
<li>Along the way, there have been successful, shorter term, trade around positions.</li>
<li>The core position is appropriately hedged to preserve the gains.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.  The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged.  We will be carefully analyzing the following:
<ul>
<li>The dot plot</li>
<li>The Fed's balance sheet, especially regarding QT</li>
<li>How Powell straddles the uncertainty caused by tariffs</li>
<li>The Fed's take on rising consumer inflation expectations.&nbsp; Rising consumer inflation expectations are the last thing the Fed wants to see.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The momo crowd's historical pattern is to buy ahead of the Fed meeting on hopium.&nbsp; This morning is no different.&nbsp; The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade hoping the Fed will help the market run up.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h4>
Prudent investors keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) due to the impact of the carry trade on stock markets across the globe including the U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks.
BOJ has been in the mode of raising interest rates.&nbsp; However, after its latest meeting, the BOJ left rates unchanged.&nbsp; This has stopped the rise of the yen.
The primary reason BOJ did not raise interest rates appears to be the potential fallout from U.S. tariffs.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Turkey</h4>
Turkey has detained the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu.&nbsp; He is the main rival to Turkish President Erdogan.&nbsp; The opposition is calling this "a coup against our next president."&nbsp; Before this development, Turkey had a lot going for it.
<ul>
<li>Turkey will benefit from increased spending in Europe.</li>
<li>Turkey will benefit from thawing relations between the U.S. and Russia.</li>
<li>Turkey has lately engaged in investor friendly policies.&nbsp; As a result, there is a lot of room for the Turkish market to run.</li>
</ul>
The detention of Erdogan's main rival has raised concerns about political upheaval.&nbsp; The Turkish lira crashed as much as 12% on the news.
A big dip in Turkey will likely be a buying opportunity. &nbsp;Turkey has been covered continuously in The Arora Reoprt&#8217;s ZYX Emerging for 18 years.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust :SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Equities

Market Summary

Opinion

NVDA

Human-Like Reasoning AI Agents And Robots Are A Big Market For Nvidia, But Nvidia Stock Has A Problem

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the dollar.

Gold and silver are trading higher. Strength may be due to tariff uncertainty, which could drive a rotation into safe-haven assets.

SBSW

Shares of gold and silver stocks are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar. Trade uncertainty may also be lifting safe-haven assets.

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar index.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-26_09h15_32-1.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">King Nvidia Earnings Ahead</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-earnings-budget-plan-nvda-mc-02262025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not about an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows NVDA stock is below the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is neither overbought nor oversold.</li>
<li>The chart shows a nicely profitable recently completed trade around position on NVDA based on Arora signals.&nbsp; The NVDA trade around position was separate and distinct from the core NVDA position that is being held for $12.55.</li>
<li>Nvidia will report earnings today after the close.&nbsp; Nvidia earnings have the potential to move the stock market in either direction.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, we will be carefully listening for future demand.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is ignoring the potential risk to the downside and buying stocks ahead of Nvidia earnings.</li>
<li>The House has passed a plan for the budget.  Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>The plan calls for $1.5T &#8211; $2T in spending cuts over a decade.</li>
<li>The plan calls for $4T &#8211; $4.5T in tax cuts.</li>
<li>The plan calls for large cuts in Medicaid.&nbsp; Medicaid is a safety net health insurance program for low income people.</li>
<li>The stage is set for a showdown with the Senate.&nbsp; Senate Republicans want larger tax cuts.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The passage of the bill is generating excitement among investors, and they are aggressively buying stocks.&nbsp; As heartless as it sounds, irrespective of your opinion, in the early trade, there is aggressive buying in the stock market for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>Higher income people will benefit more from tax cuts.&nbsp; It is the higher income people who invest in stocks.</li>
<li>Lower income people who are on Medicaid will be adversely affected, but they are much less likely to invest in stocks.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Adding to the buying is news from China.&nbsp; Please see the section below.</li>
<li>Copper prices are moving higher on Trump's plan for tariffs on copper.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">China</h4>
China is injecting $55B into its largest banks.&nbsp; The purpose is to increase lending and spur the economy.&nbsp; Foreign money is flowing into Chinese stocks.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing selling pressure.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

TSLA

Stock Buying Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings On Potential Tax Cuts And Large Medicaid Cuts

GOLD

OUNZ

SGOL

Gold and Silver are trading lower, possibly due to a delay in tariffs. Also, Trump-Russia talks may reduce safe-haven asset demand.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-06_07h50_21.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">10 Year In Focus</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-trump-focused-on-10-year-tlt-mc-02062025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows TLT had previously touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows yesterday TLT broke out above the top band of the support zone.  TLT took a leg up for two main reasons:
<ul>
<li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Trump wants to focus on the 10-year yield to reduce borrowing costs instead of the Fed's short term benchmark.</li>
<li>The details of the Treasury funding.  Yesterday, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In an important development, the Treasury announced&nbsp; $125B of securities, from 3 year to 30 year, to refund approximately $106B Treasuries maturing on February 15.&nbsp; So far, the stock market likes this development, and there is aggressive buying on this news.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Rallying bonds means lower yields.  Rallying bonds are also a positive for the stock market.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 213K consensus.  This data adds to the murky jobs picture.  The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.  The official jobs report may bring clarity to the murky jobs picture and the data may be market moving.</li>
<li>Arm Holdings American Depositary Shares (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) is a British company.  Its processor design is used in over 90% of smartphones, including iPhones.  In The Arora Report analysis, ARM stock is one of the bigger beneficiaries of the future AI move to the edge.  Arm is guiding $0.48 &#8211; $0.56 vs. $0.52 consensus, but whisper numbers have been much higher.  ARM stock is falling on guidance below whisper numbers. In The Arora Report analysis, Arm guidance is raising a concern that the growth of AI to the edge may be slower than the market currently expects.  However, Wall Street firms are coming to Arm's defense and raising targets on ARM stock.</li>
<li>Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>) earnings and guidance are better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  However, the stock is under pressure on slowing smartphone growth. As full disclosure, QCOM is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  As the stock market is focused on slowing smartphone growth, in The Arora Report analysis, investors should look forward as Qualcomm will be a major beneficiary of AI's move to the edge.</li>
<li>The reaction to earnings from Arm and Qualcomm demonstrates crosscurrents.  As a reader of The Arora Report, you have an advantage as The Arora Report is one of the rare resources that has a long track record of helping investors successfully navigate crosscurrents.</li>
<li>Dependence on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) has its perils.  Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWKS#NASDAQ">SWKS</a>) has been a main supplier of RF components to Apple.  SWKS stock is falling 28% on the news that Apple is going to shift some of its business to another vendor.  In The Arora Report analysis, the other vendor is likely Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>).  As full disclosure, there is a sympathy short trade on this news in Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QRVO#NASDAQ">QRVO</a>).  It is too late to short SWKS.  </li>
<li>Several food stocks have been under pressure, especially hard hit have been those impacted by rising prices of cocoa.  This morning, sentiment is lifting on these stocks as chocolate maker Hershey Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HSY#NYSE">HSY</a>) beat earnings.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) has been the best performing pharmaceutical stock due to the popularity of its weight loss drugs.  LLY beat the consensus and whisper numbers and provided a very positive update on the pipeline.   In the early trade, LLY stock is volatile in the premarket, having traded at low as $812.18 and as high as $875.  Prudent investors need to note that the wide range in a very short time seen in LLY stock this morning is becoming typical in many many stocks.  As a practical tip, in this market it is imperative to scale in and scale out.  As full disclosure, LLY is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  </li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

$BTC

AAPL

AMZN

AVGO

GOOG

MSFT

QCOM

QRVO

SWKS

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Trump Focused On 10-Year Yield And Not On The Fed, Slower AI Growth Fears Weigh On Arm Stock

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-01-28_08h07_13.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Largest Market Cap Loss Ever</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-largest-loss-deepseek-nvda-mc-01282025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the drop in NVDA stock stopped before it reached the mini support zone.</li>
<li>Volume shown on the chart is very heavy, indicating conviction in the pullback.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA is not oversold, indicating there is more room to the downside.</li>
<li>Yesterday, NVDA lost $589B in market cap.  This is the largest one day loss ever for any company.</li>
<li>Yesterday illustrates the importance of diversification and proper portfolio construction.  At this time, many retail investors are almost exclusively in AI stocks – such investors suffered massive losses yesterday.  The Arora Report Model Portfolios are illustrations of how to properly construct portfolios using over 50 different strategies.  </li>
<li>Wall Street is coming to Nvidia's defense. In The Arora Report analysis, further clarity is needed.  Nvidia issued a statement on DeepSeek, but the statement does not provide any clarity probably because Nvidia is in a quiet period prior to earnings.</li>
<li>Americans are willy-nilly installing DeepSeek without realizing it is opening their entire device to China.  DeepSeek is the most popular app in the Apple App Store.</li>
<li>Before the stock market opened yesterday, The Arora Report shared with you that Wall Street woke up after about a month after the prior version of DeepSeek was made available at Christmas time.  We also shared with you our skepticism about the cost of $6M for DeepSeek.</li>
<li>Upon further analysis, The Arora Report now has high conviction that the stated cost of DeepSeek is highly misleading.  This is important because it is the stated low cost figure that panicked Wall Street. </li>
<li>For the first time in 20 years, three remarkable things happened yesterday when S&amp;P 500 declined 1.5%:
<ul>
<li>The number of rising stocks far surpassed the number of declining stocks, 350 vs. 152.</li>
<li>Value stocks surged.</li>
<li>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Eql Wght ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSP#NYSE">RSP</a>) was little changed.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, instead of going into cash, investors exited AI stocks and bought value stocks.</li>
<li>Chips stocks are rising on a suggestion that Trump will place tariffs on imported chips.</li>
<li>There is also a report of Trump potentially imposing a universal tariff of at least 2.5%.</li>
<li>Those in the momo crowd who exclusively buy out of money call options on popular stocks have seen their accounts completely wiped out.  In our decades in the markets, we have seen this again and again – many in the momo crowd make a lot of money by recklessly buying options and then go on to lose their entire accounts.</li>
<li>Those in the momo crowd who still have money are aggressively buying NVDA, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Cameco Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCJ#NYSE">CCJ</a>), Oklo Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OKLO#NYSE">OKLO</a>), Nano Nuclear Energy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NNE#NASDAQ">NNE</a>), SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOFI#NASDAQ">SOFI</a>), Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>), Rigetti Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGTI#NASDAQ">RGTI</a>), Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QUBT#NASDAQ">QUBT</a>), and WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WIMI#NASDAQ">WIMI</a>).  WIMI announced it will use DeepSeek, catching the attention of the momo crowd.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, it is important to understand that irrespective of how cheap it may be, corporate America is not going to make a Chinese model like DeepSeek the backbone of their AI efforts.  </li>
<li>Looking forward, we will be careful listening to earnings calls from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) to see if they are making changes to their capital expenditure plans after DeepSeek.</li>
<li>Durable goods came weaker than expected.
<ul>
<li>Durable goods came at -2.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable goods ex-transportation came at 0.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
<li>The FOMC meeting starts today.  The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was first sold yesterday along with tech stocks.  The dip under $100K was bought.  As of this writing, bitcoin has stabilized over $100K.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Large Cap

OKLO

PLTR

QUBT

RGTI

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

SOFI

WIMI

Wall Street Comes To Nvidia's Defense After Biggest Loss Ever, Many Momos Wiped Out

General

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Is Slightly Higher, Fed Releases Meeting Minutes, Gold And Silver Rise On Macro Uncertainty

Gold and silver are trading higher amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty as investors assess president-elect Trump's tariff policies.

Benzinga Market Summary: NVIDIA Falls As Market Digests CES Announcements, S&P Slides As Yields Gain Following Economic Data, Gold And Silver Rise, Adobe Analytics Data Show Record Holiday Sales

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-23_08h02_56.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Profiting From Stock Market Hopium</h4>
An enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows Friday was an outside day.&nbsp; It is a bullish technical signal.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market hit the breakout line before bouncing.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI is close to oversold.</li>
<li>The set up shown on the chart is a good setup for a Santa Claus rally.</li>
<li>The chart shows the higher volume on Friday.&nbsp; This indicates conviction.</li>
<li>In the early trade, initially there was strong buying.&nbsp; As of this writing in the premarket, selling is coming in.</li>
<li>Momo gurus have a new narrative – after lower PCE data, the Fed will continue cutting rates.&nbsp; Momo gurus are urging their followers to ignore everything the FOMC said and everything Powell said in his press conference.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, in spite of bullish technical signals and bullish seasonality, investors should not ignore negative macro signals that arose from the FOMC decision and many investors in the stock market finally coming to the realization that the data does not support aggressive rate cuts.</li>
<li>Right now, the stock market is running up on hopium.&nbsp; Once Trump is inaugurated, the stock market will have to meet reality.</li>
<li>The Arora Report call is to consider taking partial profits on tactical positions between Christmas and New Years.&nbsp; Investors should be prepared to take more profits on tactical positions between New Year and Trump's inauguration.&nbsp; Open new tactical positions on dips and on new signals.</li>
<li>The Arora Report call is to continue to hold good strategic positions.</li>
<li>There is no change in the protection band.&nbsp; Please see details in the "Protection Band And What To Do Now" section below.&nbsp; For investors who are underinvested relative to the protection band and are aggressive, consider scaling in on strategic positions when they fall in the buy zones.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the ideal time to buy will be if there is a 6% &#8211; 10% correction.</li>
<li>Since Trump's election, across all services from The Arora Report, there have been 84 profit taking signals.&nbsp; This illustrates the power of combining tactical positions with taking partial profits on some strategic positions. Please see the Trade Management Guidelines for how to properly take partial profits.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C, Meta Platforms Inc, NVIDIA Corp, and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Bullish Technical Signal, Santa Claus Rally, Taking Advantage Of Hopium

As markets brace for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, scheduled at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, Goldman Sachs highlighted 20 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have historically shown outsized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">moves around Fed decision days</a>.
While a 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.50% is widely anticipated, the market's focus is on the Fed's forward guidance, particularly the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the updated &#8220;dot plot.&#8221;
Following December's expected cut, Goldman Sachs projects a more measured pace of easing next year, forecasting rate cuts in March, June, and September, with the terminal rate seen at 3.50%-3.75%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42554114/all-eyes-on-december-fed-meeting-as-traders-await-interest-rate-projections">All Eyes On December Fed Meeting As Traders Await Interest Rate Projections</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Dynamics Around Fed Days</h3>
U.S. equity markets have displayed strong short-term gains during Fed meeting weeks in 2024. 
Investors employing a simple strategy of buying the S&amp;P 500 index at market close before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and selling at close the following day have captured median returns of 1.1% across the past seven meetings.
Yet those extending the trade horizon to 15 sessions post-Fed meeting have enjoyed significantly larger average gains of 3.29%, more than double the short-term returns. Notably, every Fed meeting this year has resulted in positive 15-day returns.
"We observe that U.S. banking ETFs, such as SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), have seen unusually large moves on FOMC days since 2022" Goldman analysts wrote in a recent note.
For bond-focused investors, the report highlights consistent post-meeting gains in high-yield and investment-grade ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HYG#NYSE">HYG</a>) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>).
Meanwhile, energy-focused ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), have seen negative reactions. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs Showing Heightened Fed-Day Moves</h3>
Here's Goldman Sachs' list of 20 ETFs with the largest absolute moves – which include both positive and negative swing – on FOMC days:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>Focus</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move on FOMC since 2022</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move (Last 3 FOMC events)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF </td>
<td>Regional Banking</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>)</td>
<td>US Large Banks</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XBI#NYSE">XBI</a>)</td>
<td>Biotech</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>United States Oil Fund </td>
<td>Oil</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)</td>
<td>Technology</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>)</td>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)</td>
<td>Discretionary</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)</td>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>)</td>
<td>Financial</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)</td>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NASDAQ">EMB</a>)</td>
<td>EM Bond</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>HY Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>IG Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>7-10 Year Treasury</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TIP#NYSE">TIP</a>)</td>
<td>TIPS Bond</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Check Out: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42539116/fed-meetings-made-stock-traders-richer-in-2024-could-wednesday-bring-last-big-rally">Fed Meetings Made Stock Traders Richer In 2024: Could Wednesday Bring Last Big Rally?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-17_07h56_07.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Extreme Positive Sentiment</h4>
An enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock has gone parabolic.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent Arora buy signal.&nbsp; There is a 66.8% gain from the Arora buy signal in less than six weeks.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks tend to be susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>Yesterday's TSLA stock was ripping, in part, on rumors that Trump will change the law so that Tesla does not have to report car crashes to regulators.&nbsp; Regulators use this data to assess the safety of vehicles. To date, Tesla has had to report over 1500 crashes.</li>
<li>Investors are ignoring the news that the computers in Tesla's new cars are failing.&nbsp; TSLA stock should have been down on the news of the new car computers failing.&nbsp; Instead, TSLA stock ran higher.&nbsp; This is a prime example of what happens when sentiment is at the extreme positive.</li>
<li>TSLA stock is also moving higher in part because there is a new constituent of buyers for TSLA stock. These buyers are the ones who hate electric vehicles (EVs), are big Trump supporters, and are now buying TSLA stock because they see Tesla CEO Elon Musk with Trump.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, sales of EVs are going to fall.&nbsp; This is a risk to TSLA stock.&nbsp; However, bullish Tesla analysts already have a narrative – EVs no longer matter to Tesla because Tesla has Trump's support to change laws to benefit Tesla.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the future of Tesla is about autonomy, robotaxis, and robots; however, EVs are still very important to Tesla – robotaxis and autonomy are built on EVs.</li>
<li>Astute investors recognize that extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal.&nbsp; Profit taking by such investors in the early trade is overwhelming buying by the momo crowd.&nbsp; As we have written before, extreme positive sentiment is not a precise timing signal.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; The data is mixed; consumers are still aggressively buying cars but are pulling back on other purchases.&nbsp; Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>FOMC is starting its meeting today.&nbsp; The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C and Tesla.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Inc.,   Microsoft Corp, and NVIDIA Corp.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin continues to move higher as the rumor takes hold that Trump will announce the bitcoin reserve on day one.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Computers In New Tesla Cars Failing But Tesla Stock Rockets On Trump's Support

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1200" height="711" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7.png" alt="" class="wp-image-4139" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7.png 1200w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-300x178.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-1024x607.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-768x455.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Small Language Model</h4>
An enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows MSFT stock has climbed in December so far.</li>
<li>The chart shows support and resistance zones for MSFT.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows MSFT stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>The Arora Report previously shared with readers a major milestone in AI progress – human-like reasoning capabilities using chain link thinking in Model 4o from OpenAI.</li>
<li>ChatGPT-4o is a large language model.</li>
<li>In further AI progress, Microsoft has introduced Phi-4.&nbsp; Phi-4 is a small language model that outperforms GPT-4o in certain mathematical reasoning.&nbsp; Phi-4 is only a fraction of the size of GPT-4o.&nbsp; It appears that Phi-4 can do better in solving certain math problems compared to its teacher model GPT-4o.&nbsp; Also of note is that Microsoft trained Phi-4 mostly on synthetic data.</li>
<li>The foregoing is important for investors as investors need to get ahead of the curve.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, Phi-4 challenges the present belief that bigger is better.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, small language models such as Phi-4 have a very bright future.&nbsp; There is a fortune to be made in AI between now and 2030.&nbsp; However, it will not be in a straight line.&nbsp; At times, it will be treacherous.</li>
<li>There is excitement in the stock market this morning as it was announced Friday after the close that AI software company Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>) and big bitcoin holder MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) are being added to the Nasdaq 100.</li>
<li>The Arora Report has previously written that one of the things Trump can do to reduce inflation from his policies is to attract foreign investment to the U.S.&nbsp; In the first sign of success for Trump, Japan's SoftBank Group Corp &#8211; ADR (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SFTBY#OTC">SFTBY</a>) CEO Masayoshi Son will announce at Mar-a-Largo a $100B investment in the U.S. over the next four years.</li>
<li>There is also buying in the early trade as the market believes it is a certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates this week in spite of the data not supporting such a rate cut.</li>
<li>Markets in the U.S. are not being impacted by weakness in Europe and Asia as there was powerful pumping of stocks in the media over the weekend.&nbsp; Retail investors tend to be influenced by the weekend pump and buy on Monday morning.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">France</h4>
Moody's has cut France's credit rating.&nbsp; French stocks and bonds are falling.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">China</h4>
Markets all across the globe are being negatively impacted by weak retail sales data in China.
Retail sales in China came at 3.0% year-over-year vs 4.8% consensus.
Concern is building that the Chinese consumer is not spending in spite of stimulus measures by the government.
In The Arora Report analysis, investors should note the sharp contrast between U.S. consumers and Chinese consumers at this time.&nbsp; U.S. consumers are on a buying binge.&nbsp; Chinese consumers are holding back and are focused on savings.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc Class C , Meta Platforms Inc , NVIDIA Corp , and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Over the weekend, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) ran over $106,000 on a rumor that Trump will announce the bitcoin reserve on day 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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