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SCILEX HOLDING CO

Scilex Holding

Scilex Holding Co is focused on acquiring, developing, and commercializing non-opioid pain management products for the treatment of acute and chronic pain. The Company's commercial product, ZTlido (lidocaine topical system), is a prescription lidocaine topical product for the relief of pain associated with postherpetic neuralgia, which is a form of post-shingles nerve pain. It is focused on commercializing Gloperba (colchicine USP) an oral solution, a prophylactic treatment for painful gout flares in adults. The Company's three product candidates are SP-102 or SEMDEXA viscous gel formulation of a used corticosteroid for epidural injections, SP-103 a Phase 2, triple-strength formulation of ZTlido, and SP-104, 4.5 mg Delayed Burst Release Low Dose Naltrexone Hydrochloride (DBR-LDN) Capsule.

Scilex Holding Co

JP Morgan analyst Robbie Marcus downgrades RxSight (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RXST#NASDAQ">RXST</a>) from Overweight to Underweight and lowers the price target from $40 to $17.

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JP Morgan Downgrades RxSight to Underweight, Lowers Price Target to $17

BP p.l.c. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BP#NYSE">BP</a>) shares are trading lower premarket on Friday. The company disclosed that its board has begun the process of selecting a <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-chair-announces-intention-to-step-down-board-launches-search-for-successor.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">new </a>chair following Helge Lund's decision to step down.
The succession process, led by Dame Amanda Blanc as senior independent director with board support, aims to ensure a smooth transition.
The selected candidate will join the board and work alongside Helge Lund before officially assuming the chair role, likely in 2026.
Helge stated, "Having fundamentally reset our strategy, bp's focus now is on delivering the strategy at pace, improving performance and growing shareholder value. Now is the right time to start the process to find my successor and enable an orderly and seamless handover."
The decision follows pressure from activist hedge fund Elliott Management, which has been pushing for further changes at BP, reported Reuters.
Notably, in February, Elliott Management reportedly acquired a stake in BP and had been advocating for substantial changes at the British oil <a target="_blank" href="https://in.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/02/43591241/whats-going-on-with-oil-giant-bp-stock-today" rel="noreferrer noopener">company to boost its performance</a>.
In the same month, BP reported that it missed fourth-quarter revenue and earnings estimates, with hydrocarbon production <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43618537/bp-q3-results-lower-revenue-rising-debt-but-175-billion-buyback-and-dividend-hike-impress" rel="noreferrer noopener">down 5.4% year-over-year</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;Precidian ETFs Trust BP plc ADRhedged&nbsp;(BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BPH#BATS">BPH</a>) and&nbsp;Texas Capital Funds Trust Texas Capital Texas Oil Index , ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILT#NYSE">OILT</a>).
Price Action: BP shares are down 4.72% at $29.86 premarket at the last check on Friday.
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</ul>

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BP Begins Hunt for New Chair As Elliott Management Pushes for Changes

Jefferies analyst Michael Sarcone downgrades Edap TMS (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDAP#NASDAQ">EDAP</a>) from Buy to Hold and lowers the price target from $8 to $2.

EDAP

Jefferies Downgrades Edap TMS to Hold, Lowers Price Target to $2

Chinese electric scooter company Niu Technologies (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NIU#NASDAQ">NIU</a>) disclosed its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/04/g44642144/niu-technologies-provides-first-quarter-2025-sales-volume-update" rel="noreferrer noopener">sales volume results for the first-quarter</a>.
In the first quarter, the company sold a total of 203,313 units, comprising e-motorcycles, e-mopeds, e-bikes, kick-scooters, and e-bikes.
Of these, 183,065 units were sold in China, while 20,248 units were sold in international markets.
Driven primarily by domestic momentum, Niu saw sales increase 57% in the first-quarter, from the 129,139 units sold in the same period last year.
The share of the growth came from the Chinese market, where Niu&#8217;s sales jumped 66% compared to the first-quarter of 2024.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44643859" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg And Jensen Huang See $34 Billion Wiped Out In A Single Day: Here&#8217;s How Much Other &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; Billionaires Lost After Trump&#8217;s Liberation Day</a>
The company attributed the spike to its refreshed product line. The launch of its NX Pro model in late March was a standout success, drawing over 3.5 million live viewers and generating a flood of pre-orders in both online and offline channels.
International sales also edged higher by 6% year-over-year. Niu highlighted advances in its overseas electric motorcycle and micro mobility segments, indicating a broader market penetration throughout 2025.
Recently, Niu reported a 71.1% jump in fourth-quarter revenue to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/03/g44350753/niu-technologies-announces-unaudited-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">819.2&nbsp;million Chinese yuan&nbsp;($112.23 million)</a>.
The company expects first-quarter revenues&nbsp;to grow&nbsp;25% to 40% and sales volume of 1.3 million to 1.6 million units in 2025, a 40% to 70% increase on year.
NIU&#8217;s current product range is divided into two main categories, each featuring a variety of vehicle types. The first includes electric motorcycles, mopeds, and bicycles, such as the NQi, MQi, UQi, FQi series, among others.
The second category focuses on micro-mobility solutions, which consist of the KQi kick-scooter lineup and the BQi electric bike series.
Price Action: NIU shares traded lower by 16% at $3.21 in premarket at last check Friday.
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</ul>

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Niu Technologies Q1 Sales Volume Surge 57% On Solid China Demand

Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Michael Gaugler downgrades Middlesex Water (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSEX#NASDAQ">MSEX</a>) from Buy to Neutral.

MSEX

Janney Montgomery Scott Downgrades Middlesex Water to Neutral

Trump's administration has decided to back one of the key projects initiated by former President Joe Biden: the Lobito Corridor.
The transcontinental railway aims to link the resource-rich areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to Angola's Atlantic port of Lobito. This project would fortify the West's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43492445/critical-metal-demand-to-triple-by-2030-but-demographics-pose-risks" rel="noreferrer noopener">critical minerals supply chain</a>, shifting the regional export preference toward the Atlantic.
James Story, the U.S. chargé d'affaires and acting ambassador to Angola, clarified America's dedication to the project while leading a diplomatic tour along the 835-mile rail line.
"We are here to show our commitment to these projects. We will continue working with our partners," he said to reporters, according <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/trump-administration-backs-african-lobito-rail-plan-envoy-says?srnd=phx-markets" rel="noreferrer noopener">to</a> Bloomberg's report.
The Lobito Corridor is a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/02/37074505/african-rail-projects-become-battleground-for-us-china-competition-in-strategic-mineral-suppl" rel="noreferrer noopener">collaborative effort</a> involving the U.S., the European Union, and a group of private sector partners led by the commodities giant Trafigura.
Together, they plan to upgrade and expand the railway network to boost exports of copper and cobalt—key minerals needed for electric vehicles, AI data centers, and the global energy transition.
President Biden had promoted the corridor as part of a fresh approach to U.S.-Africa relations, focusing on commercial partnerships instead of traditional aid.
His administration had pledged nearly $4 billion for infrastructure, mining, and agriculture projects along the route. Although a hurricane delayed his only trip to Africa, Biden visited Angola in December, marking his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/24/10/41416913/bidens-farewell-to-africa-strategic-motives-behind-first-and-only-presidential-visit" rel="noreferrer noopener">first and last visit to the continent</a>, cementing the project's importance in his foreign policy legacy.
The fresh endorsement from Trump's administration hints at an investment-driven diplomacy in Africa. Despite the tariffs affecting Angola, Zambia, and the DRC, the White House made it clear that there are exemptions for essential minerals.
Adam Cortese, the CEO of U.S.-backed solar company Sun Africa, is optimistic about this trend. "There definitely seems to be a growing push for the U.S. to compete more with China," he said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/world/africa/trump-angola-lobito-corridor.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">for</a> the New York Times, pointing to the increasing interest in backing American businesses in Africa.
The Lobito Corridor is also part of a larger strategy for the U.S. in the region. Zambia is ramping up copper production, targeting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/04/38115830/zambia-mining-boom-the-road-to-1-million-tons-of-copper" rel="noreferrer noopener">one million tons</a>, led by large foreign firms like First Quantum Minerals (OTCPK: FQVLF), Barrick (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>), and Glencore (OTCPK: GLCNF).&nbsp;&nbsp;
Meanwhile, discussions are underway for multibillion-dollar investments in the DRC's mining, and officials are investigating a possible <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44216408/dr-congo-explores-a-minerals-for-security-deal-with-the-us" rel="noreferrer noopener">minerals-for-security deal</a> amid ongoing conflicts.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44636869/jp-morgan-turns-to-europe-sees-value-in-emea-mining-equities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">JPMorgan Turns Bullish On European Miners, Sees Copper Rally As Key Catalyst</a></li>
</ul>
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Trump's Administration Backs Biden's Legacy Project To Secure African Resources

Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterates Viant Technology (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DSP#NASDAQ">DSP</a>) with a Buy and maintains $21 price target.

Reiteration

Needham Reiterates Buy on Viant Technology, Maintains $21 Price Target

In this article, we explore the development of a systematic trading strategy for coffee futures (@KC), which are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York. Our goal is to diversify a trading portfolio by incorporating lesser-known assets compared to more commonly traded futures.
Coffee futures belong to a category known as "soft commodities," which also includes futures contracts for sugar, cocoa, cotton, and orange juice. This market offers several appealing characteristics, including significant intraday volatility, a low correlation with equity futures, and decent trading volumes.
To analyze this market, we employ a Trend-Following approach, a strategy that has historically performed well across various commodity markets. Our objective is to determine whether this approach is equally effective for trading coffee futures.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Logic and Code Behind a Trend-Following Strategy for Coffee Futures</h2>
The strategy we aim to develop follows a Trend-Following approach, based on the breakout of significant highs and lows.
Specifically, the system enters a long position when the price surpasses the highest high recorded over a given number of sessions, defined as Highest(High, n_sessions). Conversely, it enters a short position when the price breaks below the lowest low over a set number of sessions, denoted as Lowest(Low, n_sessions).
The system remains active throughout the entire trading session of Coffee futures, which runs from 4:15 AM to 1:30 PM (exchange time), Monday through Friday. Entries and exits occur within the same trading day, meaning that all positions are closed by the end of the session unless the stop loss is triggered earlier. For this initial analysis, we set the Stop Loss at $1,500.
We evaluate the performance of our trading system in a 15-minute timeframe (data1) for trade execution and a daily timeframe (data2) for calculating entry levels, with historical data spanning from early 2010 to the end of 2023.
This concept translates into a few concise lines of code:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
input:n_sessioni(5),mystop(1000),myprofit(0);
if EntriesToday(d)=0 then Buy next&nbsp; bar at Highest(High,n_sessioni)data2 stop;
if EntriesToday(d)=0 then Sellshort next bar at Lowest(Low,n_sessioni)data2 stop;
if mystop&gt;0 then setstoploss(mystop);
if myprofit&gt;0 then setprofittarget(myprofit);
setstopcontract;
setexitonclose;
</div>
</blockquote>
The first step in refining the strategy involves optimizing the number of sessions ("n_sessions") used to calculate breakout levels. To do this, we test values from 1 to 10 in increments of 1 and evaluate the impact on performance.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="154" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9723" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-300x66.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 1 – Optimization of the "n_sessions" input to identify the optimal number of sessions for calculating highs and lows.
The optimization reveals that as the number of sessions increases, net profit and overall performance metrics tend to deteriorate, except for maximum drawdown, which remains relatively stable. Based on this analysis, we select n_sessions = 2, meaning that our entry levels are calculated based on the past two sessions&#8217; highs and lows. A breakout of these levels triggers a position entry.
Examining the results from our first test, we observe a profitable and steadily growing equity curve, confirming that Coffee futures respond well to Trend-Following logic. While further refinements will be necessary, the initial results are promising, with an average trade of $62 and a net profit of $151,000. Not bad for an early-stage system without any additional filtering or optimizations!
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="143" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-3.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9725" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-3.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-3-300x62.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 2 – Detailed equity curve of the Trend Following strategy on Coffee futures.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="630" height="432" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9724" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1.jpg 630w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1-300x127.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px" /></figure>
Figure 3 – Strategy Performance Summary and Total Trade Analysis of the Trend Following strategy on Coffee futures.
To refine our Trend-Following trading system, the first step is to analyze whether adjusting the operational time window—rather than running the system for the full trading session—can lead to improved performance.
We modify the code by introducing a custom function and incorporating two new input parameters: "MyStartTrade" and "MyEndTrade", which specify the time window in which trades are allowed. We then proceed to optimize these parameters.
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
var:istartofsession(false);
istartofsession=_OHLCMulti5(0415,1330,ohlcvalues);
array:ohlcValues[23](0);
input: stoploss(1500), takeprofit(0);
input: MyStartTrade(415),MyEndTrade(1330);
input: n_sessioni(2);
//ingressi
if tw(MyStartTrade,MyEndTrade)
and EntriesToday(d)=0
then begin
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy next&nbsp; bar at Highest(High,n_sessioni)data2 stop;
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Sellshort next bar at lowest(Low,n_sessioni)data2 stop;
end;
if stoploss&gt;0 then setstoploss(stoploss);
if takeprofit&gt;0 then setprofittarget(takeprofit);
setstopcontract;
setexitonclose;
</div>
</blockquote>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="141" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9726" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-2.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-2-300x61.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 4 – Optimization of the "MyStartTrade" input to determine the best time to start trading.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="143" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-3.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9728" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-3.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-3-300x62.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 5 – Optimization of the "MyEndTrade" input to determine the best time to stop trading.
The optimization results indicate that shortening the trading window improves overall system performance. Specifically, adjusting the start time to 5:00 AM and the end time to 12:00 PM leads to a clear reduction in maximum drawdown from over $25,000 to less than $20,000.
This improvement likely occurs because early trading movements (immediately after the market opens) tend to be erratic and lack clear direction, while opening new trades after a certain time of the day makes little sense since all positions are closed by the end of the day.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Enhancing Performance: Implementing a Price Pattern Filter</h2>
To further refine our Trend-Following strategy, we now focus on one of the most crucial metrics for real-world trading: average trade value. For our system to be viable in live trading, this metric must be high enough to cover operational costs such as commissions and slippage. This is particularly relevant in the case of coffee futures, where each tick has a relatively high value of $18.75.
One possible enhancement is the addition of a filter based on the &#8220;Daily Factor&#8221; (DF)—a pattern that measures how much the prices of the prior day moved from the open to the close relative to their total daily range (high to low).
This pattern does not indicate market direction but provides information only about volatility: a low Daily Factor value suggests that prices moved very little relative to their total range, while a high Daily Factor value indicates strong price movement, signaling a clearly bullish or bearish session.
Once the Daily Factor ("DF") value is computed, we compare it against a predefined threshold ("DF_level") to determine whether or not to enter a trade. Both "DF" and "DF_level" range from 0 to 1.
To integrate this filter, we add the following lines to our script and optimize the "DF_level" parameter, testing values between 0.1 and 1 in increments of 0.05.
//Daily Factor
input:DF_level(1);
var: DF(0);
if (highs(1)-lows(1))&lt;&gt;0 then begin
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; DF=absvalue(opens(1)-closes(1))/(highs(1)-lows(1));
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; end;
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="251" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-5.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9731" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-5.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-5-300x108.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 6 – Optimization of the "DF_level" input to define the filter based on the Daily Factor pattern.
Based on the optimization, we choose a value of 0.8. In other words, we set the strategy so that it only opens a position if the previous session's body (Open-Close) is less than 80% of the range (High-Low). This approach increases our average trade by $20, pushing it above $80, while further reducing the maximum drawdown and boosting net profit.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Further Developments to Improve Performance: Weekdays</h2>
At this stage of our testing, we have a system that is significantly improved but still not ready for live trading with real funds. We need to identify effective solutions to continue refining our approach. One idea, for instance, is to exclude specific days of the week that, over the entire historical period analyzed, have consistently proven to be less profitable.
In parallel, we update our script by introducing two new inputs, "skipdaylong" and "skipdayshort," which designate the trading days to exclude from our strategy. We then optimize these inputs within a range from 1 to 6, since in the programming language of the MultiCharts platform, these values represent the days of the week, with 1 corresponding to Monday and 6 to Saturday.
input: skipdaylong(-1),skipdayshort(-1);
if dayofweek(d)&lt;&gt;skipdaylong then Buy next&nbsp; bar at Highest(High,len)data2 stop;
if dayofweek(d)&lt;&gt;skipdayshort then Sellshort next bar at Lowest(Low,len)data2 stop;
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="696" height="95" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-4.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9727" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-4.jpg 696w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-4-300x41.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" /></figure>
Figure 7 – Results of the optimization for the "skipdaylong" and "skipdayshort" inputs, sorted by average trade.
To validate our optimization results, we use a proprietary program that enables us to analyze the bias of each instrument at various levels—from intraday hourly bias to monthly and yearly bias. Examining Figure 8, we immediately notice that on Mondays (highlighted in the figure), Coffee futures tend to move sideways without a well-defined trend. In contrast, on the other days, the trend is clearer and generally bearish for this instrument. Furthermore, a Daily Factor measured on Fridays is evidently weaker than one measured on any other day. Based on these observations, we have decided to exclude Mondays from our trading operations, which helps us move closer to a $100 average trade.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="698" height="296" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9730" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1.jpg 698w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1-300x127.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px" /></figure>
Figure 8 – Results of the weekly bias analysis for Coffee futures, carried out using the proprietary Bias Finder software.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Strategy Exit Optimization and Final Performance</h2>
As the final step in our test, we perform our usual stop-loss optimization, which had previously been set to $1,500. At the same time, we introduce a profit target to assess whether it provides additional benefits. As a result of this final refinement, we choose $1,700 for both the stop-loss and the profit target.
The final metrics from our study include a net profit of $167,000, an average trade of $107, and a maximum drawdown of about $13,000.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="698" height="296" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9729" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1.jpg 698w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-1-300x127.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px" /></figure>
Figure 9 – Optimization of the Stop Loss value for the Trend Following strategy on Coffee futures.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="292" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-7.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9734" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-7.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-7-300x126.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 10 – Optimization of the Profit Target value for the Trend Following strategy on Coffee futures.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="384" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-6.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9732" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-6.jpg 697w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-6-300x165.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px" /></figure>
Figure 11 – Final equity curve of the strategy on Coffee futures.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="688" height="351" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9733" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-2.jpg 688w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/04091008/image-2-300x61.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px" /></figure>
Figure 12 – Final Performance Summary and Total Trade Analysis of the strategy on Coffee futures.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusions on the Trend Following Trading System for Coffee Futures</h2>
In short, the Trend Following approach described in this article has shown considerable promise for trading Coffee futures. This underscores the importance of exploring less familiar markets—beyond the more widely recognized ones—to achieve greater portfolio diversification. While this analysis has provided valuable insights, further refinement is necessary before transitioning to live trading. This includes identifying the most profitable trades and improving the average trade so it's sufficiently robust for real-world conditions.
Until next time, happy trading!
Andrea Unger

Futures

Technicals

Opinion

Signals

Trading Coffee Futures: Developing, Coding, and Optimizing a Trend-Following Strategy

CIBC analyst Paul Holden downgrades Bank of Montreal (TSX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMO#TSX">BMO</a>) from Outperformer to Neutral and lowers the price target from C$152 to C$141.

TSX:BMO

CIBC Downgrades Bank of Montreal to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to C$141

Needham analyst James Ricchiuti maintains Montrose Environmental Gr (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MEG#NYSE">MEG</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $39 to $28.

Needham Maintains Buy on Montrose Environmental Gr, Lowers Price Target to $28

Needham analyst Gil Blum reiterates I-MAB (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IMAB#NASDAQ">IMAB</a>) with a Buy and maintains $4 price target.

IMAB

Needham Reiterates Buy on I-MAB, Maintains $4 Price Target

HC Wainwright &amp; Co. analyst Andrew Fein maintains I-MAB (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IMAB#NASDAQ">IMAB</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $8 to $7.

HC Wainwright & Co. Maintains Buy on I-MAB, Lowers Price Target to $7

Two prominent voices in crypto investing—Arthur Hayes and Dan Tapiero—are framing the latest wave of U.S. tariffs as a symptom of deeper structural issues in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44631713/tariffs-will-provide-great-buying-opportunity-in-long-term-investors-must-first-cross-stagflatio">global financial system</a>, arguing that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) may stand to benefit from the resulting distortions.
The comments come amid heightened trade tensions following sweeping tariff announcements by the U.S., intended to counter foreign exchange manipulation, persistent trade deficits, and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44621408/market-access-has-a-price-trump-unveils-list-of-tariffs-countries-targeted">sluggish domestic growth</a>.
But for Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings and DTAP Capital, these are not isolated policy decisions—they reflect a system under pressure.
"I LOVE TARIFFS," Hayes <a href="https://x.com/cryptohayes/status/1907961898777391323?s=46">wrote</a> on X on Friday, sharing a chart showing the widening gap between the U.S. current account and financial account balances. "Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for $BTC."
The chart he referenced shows the long-term divergence between the U.S. current account balance, which has plunged deeper into deficit since the early 2000s, and the financial account balance, which has grown substantially—fueled by inflows of foreign capital. 
This pattern illustrates how the U.S. has increasingly relied on financing from abroad to fund its deficits, making the economy vulnerable to shifts in global capital flows.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44638067/anthony-pompliano-praises-trumps-tariffs-as-catalyst-for-crypto-innovation">Anthony Pompliano Praises Trump&#8217;s Tariffs As Catalyst For Crypto Innovation</a>
Tapiero <a href="https://x.com/dtapcap/status/1908031555290935666?s=46">echoed</a> the sentiment, writing: "Tariffs represent battle ongoing in the old analog world… Bitcoin stands outside this world. Free of legacy burdens."
He framed tariffs as a reactionary tool, attempting to fix long-standing problems with outdated mechanisms: "In an attempt to solve old problems—excess government spending, FX manipulation, weak growth, geopolitics—so much manipulation and interference."
While mainstream financial markets have viewed tariffs through the lens of trade friction and inflationary risk, Hayes and Tapiero suggest the deeper takeaway is the fragility of a global economic system sustained by imbalances that cannot be resolved by conventional tools. 
In their view, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44631522/bitcoin-as-trump-tariff-safe-haven-not-yet-but-might-decouple-over-time-expert-says">Bitcoin represents an exit from that paradigm</a>.
The endorsement of Bitcoin as a hedge against systemic risk fits into a broader narrative gaining traction among macro investors: that digital assets, especially Bitcoin, may be best understood not just as speculative instruments, but as structural alternatives to a weakening fiat-based system.
As the U.S. trade and fiscal picture deteriorates, with the current account deficit nearing historic lows, some investors see BTC as a potential long-term beneficiary—particularly if rising tariffs lead to currency devaluations and renewed money printing to offset economic shocks.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44631522/bitcoin-as-trump-tariff-safe-haven-not-yet-but-might-decouple-over-time-expert-says">Bitcoin As Trump Tariff Safe Haven? Not Yet, But &#8216;Might Decouple Over Time,&#8217; Expert Says</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

$BTC

Bitcoin Will Benefit From Tariff Chaos, Arthur Hayes Says

AFRI

Forafric Global Names CEO Khalid Assari As Chairman Of Board, Effective April 4, 2025, Replacing Saad Bendidi

Tradeweb Reports Record $59.6T March Trading Volume, ADV Jumps 49.9% YoY to $2.71T

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) shares are trading lower premarket on Friday. The oil giant anticipates changes in oil prices to add first-quarter Upstream earnings&nbsp;quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/secfilings/25/04/44636947/exxon-mobil-corp-general-corporate-statement-form8-0000034088-25-000017" rel="noreferrer noopener">by&nbsp;</a>$0.0&nbsp;billion to&nbsp;$0.4 billion.
Also, changes in gas prices are expected to add to its Upstream results by $0.0&nbsp;billion&nbsp;and&nbsp;$0.4 billion compared to the fourth quarter.
Also, Exxon Mobil projects that variations in industry margins will positively impact Energy Products <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">earnings by&nbsp;$0.3 billion –&nbsp;$0.7 billion</a>.
On the other hand, the company expects change in industry margins to impact Chemical Products earnings by&nbsp;$(0.1)&nbsp;billion –&nbsp;$0.1 billion and Specialty Products earnings by&nbsp;$(0.3)&nbsp;billion –&nbsp;$(0.1)&nbsp;billion.
Moreover, changes in timing effects are expected to positively impact both Upstream and Energy Products earnings by $0.1 billion – $0.5 billion each.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/03/44477467/trumps-tariffs-on-buyers-of-venezuelan-oil-could-boost-energy-sector-exxon-mobil-stock" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s Tariffs On Buyers Of Venezuelan Oil Could Boost Energy Sector, Exxon Mobil Stock</a>
Apart from this, changes in scheduled maintenance are projected to affect Upstream results by $0.0 billion –&nbsp;$0.2 billion, Energy Products by $(0.3) billion –&nbsp;$(0.1) billion, Chemical Products by $(0.1) billion –&nbsp;$0.1 billion and Specialty Products by $(0.1) billion –&nbsp;$0.1 billion.
According to&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>, analysts estimate Exxon Mobil to report&nbsp;first -quarter adjusted earnings per share of&nbsp;$1.70 and revenues of&nbsp;$86.09 billion.
Last month, the company disclosed that it is preparing to increase its isopropyl alcohol (IPA)&nbsp;production, aiming to produce 99.999% ultra-pure IPA to meet the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44497833/exxon-mobil-eyes-semiconductor-boom-with-99-999-pure-isopropyl-alcohol-production-expansion-details" rel="noreferrer noopener">growing needs of the semiconductor sector</a>.
Exxon's Baton Rouge facility will undergo upgrades to manufacture this high-purity IPA to meet the growing demand by 2027.
Investors can gain exposure to XOM via&nbsp;THOR Equal Weight Low Volatility ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/THLV#NYSE">THLV</a>) and ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQL#NYSE">EQL</a>).
Price Action: XOM shares are down 3.53% at $108.46 premarket at the last check Friday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44560678/chevron-exxon-hess-lead-as-tech-giants-stumble-in-q1-2025" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chevron, Exxon, Hess Lead As Tech Giants Stumble In Q1 2025</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock.

Guidance

THOR Financial Technologies Trust THOR Low Volatility ETF

THLV

Exxon Mobil Projects Sequential Earnings Bump On Energy Price Swings Ahead Of Q1 Report

American Shared Hospital (AMEX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMS#AMEX">AMS</a>) reported quarterly losses of $(0.20) per share. This is a 433.33 percent decrease over earnings of $0.06 per share from the same period last year. The company reported $9.07 million in sales this quarter. This is a 59.16 percent increase over sales of $5.70 million the same period last year.

Earnings

American Shared Hospital Q4 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.20) Down From $0.06 YoY, Sales $9.07M Up From $5.70M YoY

NGVC

Natural Grocers Launches Three New Non-GMO Peruvian Chip Varieties Under Store Brand

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American Shared Hospital Services Appoints Gary Delanois As CEO

"This transaction will strengthen the company's investment grade balance sheet by reducing our borrowings and unlocking the unrecognized value of critical assets," said Glenn Brandt, Chief Financial Officer. "With this transaction, Rogers will have issued an aggregate $9 billion of equity-valued capital since year-end, which is expected to reduce leverage by almost 1 turn."

Rogers to Use C$7B Investment From Blackstone-Led Group To Repay Debt And Boost Balance Sheet

Press Releases

Scilex Holding Company Announces that It Will Be Filing Today of a Supplemental New Drug Application with the FDA for ELYXYB® in Acute Pain Indication

Scilex Holding Company Announces that Its Note Holders Intend to Participate in the Funding and Licensing of Gloperba® Ex-U.S. Commercialization Rights from Romeg Therapeutics, LLC

Contracts

Scilex Holding Company Announces Extension of the Maturity Date of its Secured Promissory Note Issued to Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. to December 31, 2025

Scilex Holding Company Announces that It Regains Nasdaq Compliance Under Listing Rule 5250(c)(1)

Scilex Holding Company Announces that the U.S. FDA Has Acknowledged the Submission of Our Supplemental New Drug Application for ELYXYB® in Acute Pain Indication

Dividends

Scilex Holding Company Announces that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court has Extended the Lockup Period on Shares of Scilex Dividend Stock Previously Distributed by Sorrento to its Stockholders as a Dividend to April 14, 2025

Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination

Scilex Holding Company Announces Change in Record Date for its Previously Announced Dividend of Preferred Stock Exchangeable for up to 10% of Scilex's Ownership Interest in Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc., its Wholly Owned Subsidiary from January 28, 2025 to April 11, 2025

Scilex Holding Company Has Appealed Lower Court Decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, DC and Will Continue to Vigorously Pursue its Infringement Action Against Aveva

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SCYNEXIS

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Telomir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - Common Stock

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Ventyx Biosciences

D. Boral Capital

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B. Riley Securities

Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc., A Wholly Owned Subsidiary Of Scilex Holding Company, Announces Today The Filing Of A Registration Statement On Form S-4 by Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. With The Securities And Exchange Commission Relating To The Previously Announced Proposed Business Combination Between Semnur And Denali

Skyscrapers,Cityscape,Downtown,View,,Nashville,Skyline,Buildings.,Beautiful,Real,Estate.

Scilex Holding Company Announces Signing Of A $50 Million Registered Convertible Financing To Refinance And Restructure Existing Debt &amp; Further Strengthens Financial Profile

United,States,Bankruptcy,Court,Sign

Biotech

SRNEQ

Scilex Holding Company Announces That The U.S. Bankruptcy Court Has Extended The Lockup Period On Shares Of Scilex Dividend Stock Previously Distributed By Sorrento To Its Stockholders As A Dividend To January 31, 2025

Business,Analyst,Checking,In,Financial,Statement,For,Audit,Internal,Control

Scilex Holding Company Provides Certain Preliminary Unaudited Financial Results for the Month Ended July 31, 2024

Hand,Of,Human,Holding,Crystal,Globe,Ball,With,Tree,For

Scilex Holding Company Announces Publication of Its Inaugural Sustainability Report

Business,Man,Sign,A,Contract,Investment,Professional,Document,Agreement.,Meeting

Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Scilex Holding Company, and Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: DECA) Enter into a Letter of Intent for a Proposed Business Combination

Businessmen,Making,Handshake,With,Partner,,Greeting,,Dealing,,Merger,And,Acquisition,

Scilex Holding Company Partners With New National Distributor, Endeavor Distribution LLC.

Muscular,Man,Suffering,From,Back,And,Neck,Pain.,Incorrect,Sitting

Scilex Holding Company Announces Publication In PAIN Journal Regarding Phase 3 Results Of The Pivotal Registration Trial Of SP-102 (SEMDEXA™) In Lumbosacral Radicular Pain (Sciatica)

Outside,Of,Logistics,Warehouse,With,Open,Door,,Delivery,Van,Loaded

Scilex Holding Company Announces That Many National Pharmacy Chains And Independent Pharmacies Have Begun Stocking GLOPERBA®

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Scilex Holding Company Announces Stocking Of GLOPERBA® Is Underway In All Of The Wholesalers With Which Scilex Has Stocking Arrangements Throughout The U.S.

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