El interés en corto de SPDR S&P Bank ETF da a los inversores una idea del grado en que los inversores apuestan por la caída de las acciones de SPDR S&P Bank ETF. Los datos de interés en corto se actualizan cada dos semanas.

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The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index tracks the performance of publicly traded national money centers and leading regional banks. It may invest in equity securities that are not included in the index, cash and cash equivalents or money market instruments, such as repurchase agreements and money market funds.

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Goldman Sachs destaca ETF con grandes movimientos en días de la Reunión de la Fed. Sectores más impactados y estrategias clave para operar.

Goldman Sachs identifica 20 ETF con movimientos destacados en días de la Reunión de la Fed

The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, according to a person familiar with the matter. A lawsuit is expected this week and could come as soon as Tuesday morning, the person said.
The Fed's stress test is an <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/26/fed-banks-stress-test-2024.html">annual ritual</a> that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.
After the market close on Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it is <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20241223a.htm">looking to make changes</a> to the bank stress tests and will be seeking public comment on what it calls "significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements."
The Fed said it made the determination to change the tests because of "the evolving legal landscape," pointing to changes in administrative laws in recent years. It didn't outline any specific changes to the framework of the annual stress tests.
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/24/biggest-banks-planning-to-sue-the-federal-reserve-over-annual-stress-tests.html" title="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/24/biggest-banks-planning-to-sue-the-federal-reserve-over-annual-stress-tests.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/24/biggest-banks-planning-to-sue-the-federal-reserve-over-annual-stress-tests.html</a>

News

'Biggest banks planning to sue the Federal Reserve over annual stress tests' - CNBC

<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20241223a.htm" title="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20241223a.htm">https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20241223a.htm</a>
&nbsp;

US Federal Reserve Announces Due To 'Evolving Legal Landscape,' It Will Soon Seek Comment On Changes To Bank Stress Tests To Improve Transparency And Reduce Volatility; Says Intends To Propose Changes Including Disclosing And Seeking Comment On Stress Test Models And Scenarios, And Averaging Results Over Two Years; Proposed Changes Not Designed To Materially Affect Overall Bank Capital Requirements

As markets brace for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, scheduled at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, Goldman Sachs highlighted 20 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have historically shown outsized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">moves around Fed decision days</a>.
While a 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.50% is widely anticipated, the market's focus is on the Fed's forward guidance, particularly the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the updated &#8220;dot plot.&#8221;
Following December's expected cut, Goldman Sachs projects a more measured pace of easing next year, forecasting rate cuts in March, June, and September, with the terminal rate seen at 3.50%-3.75%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42554114/all-eyes-on-december-fed-meeting-as-traders-await-interest-rate-projections">All Eyes On December Fed Meeting As Traders Await Interest Rate Projections</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Dynamics Around Fed Days</h3>
U.S. equity markets have displayed strong short-term gains during Fed meeting weeks in 2024. 
Investors employing a simple strategy of buying the S&amp;P 500 index at market close before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and selling at close the following day have captured median returns of 1.1% across the past seven meetings.
Yet those extending the trade horizon to 15 sessions post-Fed meeting have enjoyed significantly larger average gains of 3.29%, more than double the short-term returns. Notably, every Fed meeting this year has resulted in positive 15-day returns.
"We observe that U.S. banking ETFs, such as SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), have seen unusually large moves on FOMC days since 2022" Goldman analysts wrote in a recent note.
For bond-focused investors, the report highlights consistent post-meeting gains in high-yield and investment-grade ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HYG#NYSE">HYG</a>) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>).
Meanwhile, energy-focused ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), have seen negative reactions. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs Showing Heightened Fed-Day Moves</h3>
Here's Goldman Sachs' list of 20 ETFs with the largest absolute moves – which include both positive and negative swing – on FOMC days:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>Focus</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move on FOMC since 2022</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move (Last 3 FOMC events)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF </td>
<td>Regional Banking</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>)</td>
<td>US Large Banks</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XBI#NYSE">XBI</a>)</td>
<td>Biotech</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>United States Oil Fund </td>
<td>Oil</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)</td>
<td>Technology</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>)</td>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)</td>
<td>Discretionary</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)</td>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>)</td>
<td>Financial</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)</td>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NASDAQ">EMB</a>)</td>
<td>EM Bond</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>HY Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>IG Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>7-10 Year Treasury</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TIP#NYSE">TIP</a>)</td>
<td>TIPS Bond</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Check Out: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42539116/fed-meetings-made-stock-traders-richer-in-2024-could-wednesday-bring-last-big-rally">Fed Meetings Made Stock Traders Richer In 2024: Could Wednesday Bring Last Big Rally?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days

U.S. Treasury's Yellen Says Banking Supervision Is Critically Important To Reduce Risk Of Bank Failures, Financial Crises; Asked About Trump Considering Moves To Shrink Or Eliminate Bank Regulators, Says Current U.S. System Is Not Broken; Warns Against Interfering With Appropriate Regulation Of Bank Capital, Liquidity, Risk Taking To Ensure Sound Banking System

Overdraft <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36272398/us-bank-slammed-for-illegally-collecting-millions-in-overdraft-fees-forced-to-pay-up-americans-are-f">issuers</a> including American Credit Unions, Consumer Bankers Association, American Bankers Association, and the Mississippi Bankers Association, have jointly filed a lawsuit challenging the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau&#8216;s new decision.
What Happened: The U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/consumer-financial-protection-bureau">watchdog agency for consumer finance</a> decided to cap the overdraft fees which can add up to $5 billion in annual fee savings to the consumers, or $225 per household that pays overdraft fees.
&#8220;For far too long, the largest banks have exploited a legal loophole that has drained billions of dollars from Americans&#8217; deposit accounts,&#8221; said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. &#8220;The CFPB is cracking down on these excessive junk fees and requiring big banks to come clean about the interest rate they&#8217;re charging on overdraft loans.&#8221;
However, banking and other lending institutions have opposed this move.
According to Consumer Bankers Association president and CEO Lindsey Johnson, &#8220;The CFPB's rule on overdraft services harms Americans who need it most—including the 26 million Americans who don&#8217;t have access to credit and thus stand to lose the most if overdraft services are restricted.&#8221;
The CBA includes JPMorgan Chase, Citi, TD Bank, BMO Bank, and Santander. American Bankers Association&#8217;s president and CEO Rob Nichols said, &#8220;CFPB's final overdraft rule exceeds the Bureau's statutory authority, ignores thoughtful industry and stakeholder feedback, and will harm the very consumers the CFPB claims to protect.&#8221;
&#8220;Financial hardships have serious consequences on families, and overdraft programs provide an affordable lifeline in these circumstances,&#8221; said America's Credit Unions president and CEO Jim Nussle. &#8220;The association is going to continue to fight through legal action to reverse this grave mistake from Director Chopra,&#8221; he added.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42454495/microsoft-expects-800-million-impairment-charge-due-to-gms-cruise-exit-but-analysts-say-its-a-step-in-the-right-direction-for-automaker">Microsoft Expects $800 Million Impairment Charge Due To GM&#8217;s Cruise Exit, Analyst Says It&#8217;s A &#8216;Step In The Right Direction&#8217; For Automaker</a>
Why It Matters: According to CFPB&#8217;s new rules, lending institutions would have to choose one of the three options when charging for overdrafts.
The first one is to cap their overdraft fee at $5 per instance, while the second option is to cap their fee at an amount that can cover costs and losses. The third option gives freedom to the institution to charge discretionary fees and disclose the terms of their overdraft loan just like other loans.
According to Chopra, &#8220;Consumers have paid an estimated $280 billion in overdraft fees over the past two decades, including roughly $9 billion in 2022.&#8221;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Many consumers have been hit by multiple fees in a day, because some banks have processed payments to trigger more and more overdraft fees. <a href="https://t.co/ItYPm1ZDnK">https://t.co/ItYPm1ZDnK</a>
&mdash; Rohit Chopra (@chopracfpb) <a href="https://twitter.com/chopracfpb/status/1867258208936472988?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Price Action: Several U.S. bank stocks took a hit on Thursday after the CFPB finalized the rule.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock</td>
<td>Closing price on Dec. 12, 2024</td>
<td>Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>)</td>
<td>$70.80</td>
<td>-1.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>)</td>
<td>$241.53</td>
<td>-0.82%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>)</td>
<td>$71.43</td>
<td>-0.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>)</td>
<td>$591.61</td>
<td>-0.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>)</td>
<td>$127.91</td>
<td>0.25%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>, the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) fell 1.1%, while the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) declined 1.2%.
Regional banks were affected, too.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock</td>
<td>Closing price on Dec. 12, 2024</td>
<td>Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Flagstar Financial Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLG#NYSE">FLG</a>)</td>
<td>$11.05</td>
<td>-2.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Citizens Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CFG#NYSE">CFG</a>)</td>
<td>$45.54</td>
<td>-1.49%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RF#NYSE">RF</a>)</td>
<td>$25.05</td>
<td>-1.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HBAN#NASDAQ">HBAN</a>)</td>
<td>$17.17</td>
<td>-1.27%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42460199/jpmorgan-reiterates-underweight-rating-on-supermicro-maintains-the-lowest-target-price-among-the-17-tracked-analysts">SMCI Stock Receives Harshest Price Target Among 17 Tracked Analysts As JPMorgan Maintains Underweight Rating On Super Micro: &#8216;No Significant Movement Of Orders&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Equities

Government

Regulations

General

HBAN

US Lenders File Joint Lawsuit Against Consumer Finance Watchdog For Capping Overdraft Fees: Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Citigroup Stocks In Focus

<a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/press-releases/2024/pr-20241206-presidents-speech-fourth-district-on-economy-and-monetary-policy" title="https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/press-releases/2024/pr-20241206-presidents-speech-fourth-district-on-economy-and-monetary-policy">https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/press-releases/2024/pr-20241206-presidents-speech-fourth-district-on-economy-and-monetary-policy</a>
&nbsp;

Fed's Hammack Says The Banking System Is In A Very Healthy Place; Consumers Really Supporting Economy, Household Balance Sheets Solid

Donald Trump&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/24/11/41968003/gold-drops-to-a-two-month-low-as-investors-turn-to-bitcoin-after-trumps-victory-but-this-economist-remains-confident-that-gold-will-surge">win is positive for the financial and energy sectors</a> as the &#8220;pro-growth effects of fiscal stimulus currently outweigh the inflationary risks in the near term​​​&#8221; according to an analyst. 
What Happened: Mario Georgiou, CFA and executive director, head of investments at InCred Global Wealth U.K., in an exclusive conversation with <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga</a>, described tax cuts and deregulation as tailwinds to the markets. He considers inflationary policies such as tariffs and immigration impacts as headwinds, leading to a steepening yield curve, and higher term premiums.
&#8220;Financials offer an attractive risk-reward and that this recent post-election rally has room to run,&#8221; added Georgiou. According to him &#8220;financials are not only well positioned to capture the benefits of the above-mentioned Trump tailwinds, but are also less impacted / would even benefit from the Trump headwinds.&#8221;
Despite a few dips, the equity markets have been trading higher than the pre-election levels after President-elect Trump&#8217;s victory. The S&amp;P 500 has increased by 3.22%, rising from $5,782.76 on Nov. 5 to $5,969.34 as of Friday&#8217;s close. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index has had a similar momentum, according to data from <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Meanwhile, Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ACRA: XLF), Vanguard Financials ETF (ACRA: VFH), iShares U.S. Financials ETF (ACRA: IYF), and SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (ACRA: KBE), have returned over 30% year-to-date in 2024 outperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index&#8217;s 26% run.
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42131911/donald-trump-appointed-doge-to-have-marginal-impact-saving-50-100-billion-says-analyst-as-elon-musk-aims-to-target-500-billion-plus-in-federal-expenditures">Donald Trump&#8217;s DOGE Initiative To Have &#8216;Marginal Impact&#8217; Says Analyst As Elon Musk Aims To Target Over $500B In Federal Expenditures</a>
Other sectors that Georgiou prefers, include energy. According to him &#8220;deregulation supporting oil production and geopolitical risks could sustain elevated oil prices and relative valuations are attractive.&#8221;
Even though the energy sector has underperformed the broader markets in 2024, &#8220;fundamentally, companies are shareholder friendly with 8-12% shareholder yields, have strong balance sheets with low net debt to EBITDA ratios and high free cash flow yields of 6.50% and above,&#8221; he adds.
Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF (ACRA: RSP), iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (ACRA: IWD), Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF (ACRA: VYM) and ProShares S&amp;P 500 Ex-Energy ETF (ACRA: SPXE) have all underperformed the S&amp;P 500 on a year-to-date basis.
Why It Matters: As markets hit their 51st record high of 2024 and the S&amp;P 500 Index crossed 6,000 points, some analysts caution that<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42134031/markets-got-it-wrong-after-elections-prospects-of-tariffs-not-good-for-equities-vs-dollar-says-ex-goldman-sachs-analyst"> tariffs could pose risks </a>to equities and suggest that the market may be overvalued.
&#8220;The prospect of tariffs isn't obviously good for equities, while it's clearly good for the Dollar," former Goldman Sachs FX strategist and senior fellow at Brookings Institution, Robin Brooks said in an X post. "Markets initially got this wrong, driving stocks up sharply right after Nov. 5,&#8221; he added.
However, Georgiou is &#8220;cautiously optimistic&#8221; about the markets, he said &#8220;a neutral to fully invested equity allocation is warranted, with a focus on sectors benefiting from Trump's policies, whilst always maintaining our core investment principles, which is a focus on fundamentals, quality, and risk management.&#8221;
<ul>
<li>Read next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42134031/markets-got-it-wrong-after-elections-prospects-of-tariffs-not-good-for-equities-vs-dollar-says-ex-goldman-sachs-analyst">Markets Misread Trump Win, Says Ex-Goldman Sachs Analyst: &#8216;Prospects Of Tariffs Not Good For Equities&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
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iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector Index Fund

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

SPXE

Donald Trump's Win Positive For Financials, Energy Sector As 'Pro-Growth Effects Will Outweigh Inflationary Pressures,' Says Analyst

Howard Lutnick, chief executive officer of Cantor Fitzgerald &#8211; which has about $3.53 billion in holdings &#8211; has been named as the co-chair of President-elect Donald Trump&#8216;s transition team. Lutnick will lead the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Top Holdings Of Lutnick&#8217;s Firm: According <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024896/000092963824003880/0000929638-24-003880-index.html">to</a> Cantor Fitzgerald&#8217;s third-quarter 13F filings, top holdings of the firm include SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), GCM Grosvenor Inc.(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GCMG#NASDAQ">GCMG</a>), and Rumble Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RUM#NASDAQ">RUM</a>).
In the September quarter, Lutnick&#8217;s financial services firm purchased about 1.17 million shares of Tesla with 1.74 million put options in Q3. It bumped up its call options by 4,967% to 152,000 shares from the <a href="https://13f.info/13f/000092963824003880/compare/000092963824002803">quarter-ended in July</a>. The total value of the fund&#8217;s exposure to Tesla stood at $804 million in Q3.
Cantor Fitzgerald also increased its position in Nvidia by 7,015%, <a href="https://13f.info/13f/000092963824003880/compare/000092963824002803">compared to the second quarter</a>, with a total holding of 3.56 million shares in Q3. It increased Nvidia puts in Q3 by 1,268% to 5.46 million shares and Nvidia call options by 3,213% to 778,600 shares. The total exposure to Nvidia in value terms stood at $1.192 billion.
The fund had 1.23 million of put options and 600,000 call options on SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TR representing a total value of $1.05 billion in Q3. GCM Grosvenor and Rumble reflected 2.1% and 1.2% of the fund&#8217;s total holdings, valued at $73.03 million and $42.04 million, respectively.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/treasuries/24/11/42157400/economist-peter-schiff-criticizes-trumps-treasury-pick-scott-bessent-says-he-will-have-to-find-buyers-for-trillions-in-new-debt-each-year-his-job-is-to-continue-the-ponzi">Economist Peter Schiff Criticizes Trump&#8217;s Treasury Pick, Scott Bessent, Says He Will Have To Find Buyers For Trillions In New Debt Each Year</a>
Why It Matters: Lutnick was also considered as a top pick for the Secretary of Treasury along with Scott Bessent. Tesla CEO and Trump&#8217;s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) co-lead Elon Musk <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/24/11/42044642/trump-appears-frustrated-as-elon-musk-chimes-in-on-treasury-secretary-adds-more-names-to-a-list-of-potential-picks">rallied for Lutnick</a> in a post on his social media platform, X, calling on others to weigh in on the appointment.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Would be interesting to hear more people weigh in on this for <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@realDonaldTrump</a> to consider feedback. My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice, whereas <a href="https://twitter.com/howardlutnick?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@howardlutnick</a> will actually enact change. Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt, so we need change… <a href="https://t.co/igGLZOJ8wz">https://t.co/igGLZOJ8wz</a>
&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1857819784865362211?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2024</a></blockquote>
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However, Bessent was appointed the Treasury Secretary. According to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/41909846/trumps-treasury-pick-frontrunner-scott-bessent-could-shift-wall-street-crypto" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">betting markets</a>, Bessent was a frontrunner with an 82% probability of securing the nomination.
The third-quarter 13F filing from Bessent's Key Square Group fund shows that they have liquidated all their holding in the September quarter.
In the <a href="https://13f.info/13f/000117266124003417-key-square-capital-management-llc-q2-2024" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">second quarter</a>, the fund had a highly concentrated portfolio, with equal investments in two banking-focused ETFs: the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>), each making up 50% of the fund.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42150794/trump-picks-hedge-fund-exec-scott-bessent-as-treasury-secretary-what-president-elects-choice-means-for-americas-economic-future" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Picks Hedge Fund Exec Scott Bessent As Treasury Secretary: What President-Elect's Choice Means For America's Economic Future</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Cantor Fitzgerald

Politics

GCMG

NVDA

TSLA

Trump's Commerce Secretary Pick Howard Lutnick's Fund Owns $1.19B In Nvidia, $804M In Tesla: Here Is A Look At His Portfolio

Economist Peter Schiff has criticized President-elect Donald Trump&#8216;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42150794/trump-picks-hedge-fund-exec-scott-bessent-as-treasury-secretary-what-president-elects-choice-means-for-americas-economic-future">decision to pick</a> hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary.
What Happened: According to his post on X (formerly Twitter), Schiff took a jibe at Trump and quipped that Bessent should be called the &#8220;Secretary of the Debt&#8221; instead of &#8220;Secretary of the Treasury.&#8221;
Schiff said the new Treasury Secretary&#8217;s job would be &#8220;to continue the Ponzi,&#8221; because Trump has promised tax cuts during his tenure.
Reducing tax collections could lead to higher government borrowings in the debt market, however, Trump remains confident that his proposed task force DOGE or the Department of Government Efficiency would successfully <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42131911/donald-trump-appointed-doge-to-have-marginal-impact-saving-50-100-billion-says-analyst-as-elon-musk-aims-to-target-500-billion-plus-in-federal-expenditures">reduce &#8220;wasteful spending&#8221;</a> without the need to borrow more.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Trump picked Scott Bessent to be the new Secretary of the Treasury. But his actual title should be Secretary of the Debt. His job is to continue the Ponzi. He must find buyers for trillions in new Treasury debt each year and convince current holders to roll it over as it matures.
&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1860323656796185017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42150794/trump-picks-hedge-fund-exec-scott-bessent-as-treasury-secretary-what-president-elects-choice-means-for-americas-economic-future">Trump Picks Hedge Fund Exec Scott Bessent As Treasury Secretary: What President-Elect&#8217;s Choice Means For America&#8217;s Economic Future</a>
As Treasury Secretary, Bessent will replace outgoing Secretary Janet Yellen, overseeing financial institutions and combating financial crimes at a time when <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42140842/sp-500-faces-volatile-2025-as-inflation-boom-could-return-bank-of-america-strategist" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the national debt has ballooned to $36 trillion</a>.
It&#8217;s not just the ballooning deficit that is a cause of concern &#8211; the interest payments on this debt set the alarm bells ringing.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40934156/billionaire-ray-dalio-warns-fed-faces-tough-road-ahead-balancing-interest-rate-cuts-and-enormous-us">warned that the U.S.</a> may have to resort to monetizing its debt, similar to Japan&#8217;s approach. This could lead to depreciated currency values and lower bond yields.
&#8220;I see a big depreciation in the value of that debt through a combination of artificial low real rates, so you won&#8217;t be compensated,&#8221; Dalio said.
The government has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40869188/robert-kiyosaki-rings-alarm-bells-over-soaring-us-debt-the-dollar-is-trash">already spent $1 trillion</a> on footing the interest bill on its national debt this year.
Why It Matters: The role of Treasury Security has been previously criticized by other economists as well. Gordon Johnson, chief executive officer and founder at GLJ Research, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42088394/economist-gordon-johnson-slams-federal-reserve-for-asset-owner-centric-policies-says-fed-needs-to-focus-on-the-real-economy-over-stock-markets">recently said in a podcast</a> that there is constant intervention by the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen along with Federal Reserve's Chairman, Jerome Powell, whenever there is a spike in the benchmark yields.
"In early 2024, the Fed cut its pace of quantitative tightening by $30 billion a month, which is just the amount they were letting roll off. And recently, Janet Yellen announced that she is going to buy $4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds per week. There is just constant intervention by these entities whenever the yields start to spike. It's them trying to disallow any dysfunction or rather I would argue functioning in the Treasury markets."
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42088394/economist-gordon-johnson-slams-federal-reserve-for-asset-owner-centric-policies-says-fed-needs-to-focus-on-the-real-economy-over-stock-markets">Gordon Johnson Slams Federal Reserve For Asset-Owner Centric Policies, Says Jerome Powell Needs To Focus On &#8216;Real Economy&#8217;: &#8216;&#8230;The Stock Market Will Be Fine&#8217;</a>
In October, Bessent assured that a new Trump administration would <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41308042/trump-adviser-defends-ex-presidents-economic-policies-strong-dollar-would-natural" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">support a strong dollar</a>, countering previous suggestions of a weaker dollar to boost exports. According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/41909846/trumps-treasury-pick-frontrunner-scott-bessent-could-shift-wall-street-crypto" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">betting markets</a>, Bessent was a frontrunner with an 82% probability of securing the nomination. His appointment could significantly impact Wall Street and the crypto sector.
Scott Bessent&#8217;s Holdings As Per 13F Filings
The latest <a href="https://13f.info/13f/000117266124004716-key-square-capital-management-llc-q3-2024">third-quarter 13F filing</a> from Bessent's Key Square Group fund shows that they have liquidated all their holding in the September quarter.
In the <a href="https://13f.info/13f/000117266124003417-key-square-capital-management-llc-q2-2024">second quarter</a>, the fund had a highly concentrated portfolio, with equal investments in two banking-focused ETFs: the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>), each making up 50% of the fund.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/42137295/as-mstrs-michael-saylor-says-warren-buffett-is-destroying-berkshire-capital-analyst-suggests-overpricedhot-stock-market-could-be-the-reason-oracle-of-omaha-is-sitting-on-325b-cash">As MSTR&#8217;s Michael Saylor Says Warren Buffett Is &#8216;Destroying&#8217; Berkshire Capital, Analyst Suggests &#8216;Overpriced…Hot Stock Market&#8217; Could Be The Reason Oracle Of Omaha Is Sitting On $325B Cash</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Treasuries

Economist Peter Schiff Criticizes Trump's Treasury Pick, Scott Bessent, Says He Will Have To Find Buyers For Trillions In New Debt Each Year: 'His Job Is To Continue The Ponzi'

President-elect Donald Trump has picked hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary.
What Happened: Bessent, 62 and founder of Key Square Group, was a leading candidate, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/42091821/could-donald-trumps-potential-treasury-secretary-be-out-of-his-depth-on-crypto-policy-polymarket-traders-just-cant-decide-on-a-favorite">competing with</a> former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and private equity executive Marc Rowan.
While sharing the decision on Friday via his social media platform Truth Social, Trump lauded Bessent as "one of the World's foremost International Investors and Geopolitical and Economic Strategists."
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/22205557/Screenshot-2024-11-23-at-7.25.49%E2%80%AFAM-900x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-661913" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Truth Social</figcaption></figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/24/11/42147981/trumps-hush-money-sentencing-delayed-as-legal-immunity-debate-escalates">Trump&#8217;s Hush Money Sentencing Delayed As Legal Immunity Debate Escalates</a>
Bessent is known for his support of gradual tariffs and deregulation, aligning with Trump&#8217;s economic vision, which includes reviving manufacturing and achieving energy independence.
Despite his previous role as chief investment officer for George Soros' fund, Trump expressed confidence in Bessent&#8217;s ability to improve U.S. competitiveness and address trade imbalances.
Why It Matters: As Treasury Secretary, Bessent will replace outgoing Secretary Janet Yellen, overseeing financial institutions and combating financial crimes at a time when <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42140842/sp-500-faces-volatile-2025-as-inflation-boom-could-return-bank-of-america-strategist">the national debt has ballooned to $36 trillion</a>.
According to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/41909846/trumps-treasury-pick-frontrunner-scott-bessent-could-shift-wall-street-crypto">betting markets</a>, Bessent was a frontrunner with an 82% probability of securing the nomination. His appointment could significantly impact Wall Street and the crypto sector.
In October, Bessent assured that a new Trump administration would <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41308042/trump-adviser-defends-ex-presidents-economic-policies-strong-dollar-would-natural">support a strong dollar</a>, countering previous suggestions of a weaker dollar to boost exports.
Despite Elon Musk&#8217;s support for Howard Lutnick, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/24/11/42044642/trump-appears-frustrated-as-elon-musk-chimes-in-on-treasury-secretary-adds-more-names-to-a-list-of-potential-picks">Trump favored Bessent&#8217;s</a> business-as-usual approach.
In July, Bessent gained attention for his optimistic stance on cryptocurrency, suggesting he might support digital assets if confirmed. &#8220;Crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay,&#8221; he stated at the time.
The latest 13F filing from Bessent&#8217;s Key Square Group fund shows a highly concentrated portfolio, with equal investments in two banking-focused ETFs: the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>), each making up 50% of the fund.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42146895/are-you-rich-enough-to-benefit-from-trumps-tax-breaks-heres-how-much-youd-need-to-be-part-of-the-top-5">Are You Rich Enough To Benefit From Trump&#8217;s Tax Breaks? Here&#8217;s How Much You&#8217;d Need To Be Part Of The Top 5%</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Trump Picks Hedge Fund Exec Scott Bessent As Treasury Secretary: What President-Elect's Choice Means For America's Economic Future

Prominent macro hedge fund manager Scott Bessent is emerging as the frontrunner for Treasury Secretary in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">President-elect Donald Trump's administration.</a>
According to betting markets, Bessent has surged well ahead of other contenders, positioning him as a top pick for the critical role at the Treasury.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Betting Markets Favor Bessent For Treasury</h3>
As of Nov. 12, betting odds on CFTC-regulated platform Kalshi show Bessent with an 82% probability of securing the nomination, followed by John Paulson at 7% and Jay Clayton at 3%. 
Bessent's background as a successful hedge fund manager with a macroeconomic focus appears to resonate with Trump's key advisers.
Bessent currently leads Key Square Group, a Connecticut-based hedge fund with assets under management (AUM) of approximately $307 million. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bessent's Take On Crypto: &#8216;Crypto Is About Freedom&#8217;</h3>
In July, Bessent made headlines with his bullish views on cryptocurrency, signaling he could be an advocate for digital assets if appointed. 
Speaking on Fox Business, he praised crypto for attracting a new generation of investors, especially those disillusioned by traditional markets after the 2008 financial crisis.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Here are the full comments on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#crypto</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#bitcoin</a> Bessent made on <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxBusiness?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FoxBusiness</a> in July. <a href="https://t.co/3O09jKZLJD">https://t.co/3O09jKZLJD</a> <a href="https://t.co/ggeLHs5JVc">pic.twitter.com/ggeLHs5JVc</a>
&mdash; Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) <a href="https://twitter.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1856204133901963512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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"Crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay," Bessent said.
"One of the most exciting things about Bitcoin is it's bringing in young people, people who haven't participated in markets before. A strong market culture in the U.S., with people believing the markets work for them, is a cornerstone of capitalism."
With Bessent at the Treasury, crypto advocates might hope for a more favorable regulatory environment. 
His positive views could align with policies that encourage innovation in digital assets, potentially supporting the growth and the rate of penatration of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) and other cryptocurrencies.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Impact: Bessent&#8217;s Banking Playbook</h3>
Bessent's investment portfolio at Key Square Group offers insights into his potential impact on Wall Street. 
According to Key Square&#8217;s latest 13F filing, the fund held highly concentrated positions in two banking-focused ETFs: the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>), each representing 50% of the fund&#8217;s portfolio.
Since the election results indicated a Trump victory and Republican control of Congress, the KRE ETF has rallied by 15.2%, and the KBE ETF has surged 13.5%, reflecting optimism about banking-friendly policies under the incoming administration.
Year-to-date, the KRE ETF is up 27%, while KBE has gained 34%.
For Wall Street, Bessent&#8217;s appointment might signal a Treasury more open to financial innovation, deregulation, and support for small and mid-sized banks. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/24/11/41900128/trump-vs-powell-dec-18-fed-meeting-sets-stage-for-new-tensions">Trump Vs. Powell: Dec. 18 Fed Meeting Sets Stage For New Tensions</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

Hedge Funds

$BTC

Trump's Treasury Pick Frontrunner Scott Bessent Could Shift Wall Street, Crypto

Shares of major U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) and Wells Fargo &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>) surged on Wednesday following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election. Investors are betting on the potential for softer regulations under a GOP-led administration. Here&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election">what you need to know.</a>
What To Know: The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) saw a rise of more than 11%, while the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), which focuses on smaller banks, surged over 13%, both hitting new 52-week highs on Wednesday.
Following Trump's election win this week, Wall Street analysts have noted a potential shift in the regulatory environment for the banking industry, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/06/bank-stocks-advance-in-overnight-trading-as-robinhood-traders-bet-on-less-regulation-with-trump.html">CNBC</a>.
Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala called the election outcome "positive for bank stocks" and predicted a "more balanced regulatory backdrop."
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/11/41783392/jamie-dimon-doesnt-plans-to-join-trump-administration-affirms-commitment-to-jpmorgan">Jamie Dimon Doesn&#8217;t Plan To Join Trump Administration, Affirms Commitment to JPMorgan</a>
Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen, noted that a Trump presidency could mean reduced scrutiny from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).
&#8220;Donald Trump is the candidate where you ignore what he says and focus on what you expect him to do," Seiberg wrote in a client note, adding that Trump's regulators would likely scale back on CFPB enforcement and reassess capital requirements for big banks.
Seiberg also pointed out that banks might benefit from lower capital requirements, stable credit card fee policies and friendlier crypto regulations. However, he cautioned that Trump's stance on tariffs and immigration could create inflationary pressures.
Price Action: JPMorgan Chase shares closed Wednesday up 11.5% at $247.06, Bank of America shares closed up 8.38% at $45.39 and Wells Fargo shares closed the day up 13.2% at $72.54 according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro.</a>
Photo: Shutterstock.

Movers

JPMorgan, Bank Of America And Wells Fargo Shares Surged Wednesday: Here's Why

- American Bankers Association Event, <a href="https://www.aba.com/training-events/conferences/annual-convention/program" title="https://www.aba.com/training-events/conferences/annual-convention/program">https://www.aba.com/training-events/conferences/annual-convention/program</a>

U.S. Treasury's Yellen Says Have Been Hearing From Banks That Burdens Of Regulatory Compliance Have Become Quite Extraordinary; Predisposed Towards Robust Capital And Liquidity Requirements To Ensure That Banking System Can Support The Economy; Sound Banking System Helped U.S. To Weather Covid-Related Financial Turbulence; Hopes Tailoring Of Regulations Can Help Reduce Compliance Burdens For Smaller Banks

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
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<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Direction</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-king-nvidia-technicals-asml-earnings-nvda-mc-10162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after a strong rally NVDA stock entered the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The rally was triggered by Jensen Huang's comment that the demand for Blackwell was insane.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA was not able to penetrate the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows when NVDA started backing off from the resistance zone, aggressive selling came in.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA is now below the bottom band of the resistance zone but still considerably above the mini support zone shown on the chart.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA stock had become extremely overbought. Overbought stocks tend to pullback. This is exactly what happened. The chart shows the pullback has relieved the extreme overbought condition.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume on the pullback was not low. This indicates that investors should not dismiss this pullback.</li>
<li>In addition to the technical reason for the pullback, there is a fundamental reason. The fundamental reason is earnings from Dutch semiconductor equipment company ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASML#NASDAQ">ASML</a>). ASML has an almost monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment needed for manufacturing Nvidia's chips. ASML stock fell 16% on the heaviest volume in 10 years. The big disappointment in ASML earnings was that ASML is forecasting 2025 sales of 30B &#8211; 35B euros vs. consensus of 35.8B euros.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the reaction in NVDA stock to ASML's forecast is an overreaction.  ASML is seeing strong AI demand. The weakness is from other chip segments.  </li>
<li>It is important to note that the demand for Blackwell is so strong that Nvidia is fully booked for the next 12 months.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>To a large degree, what happens to NVDA next will determine the fate of tech stocks until big tech earnings come along.&nbsp; If NVDA stock breaks above the resistance zone, it will be positive not only for tech stocks but for the entire stock market.</li>
<li>Most semiconductor stocks have been hit. Semiconductor bears are questioning the staying power of the semiconductor rally.</li>
<li>Among earnings of note, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>) reported earnings better than the consensus. MS earnings are important because MS has large investment banking, trading, and wealth management businesses. Previously Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) also reported good earnings. This indicates that the fundamentals of the financial sector are strong. As most investors are focused on tech, prudent investors should have some diversification in the financial sector.  As full disclosure, JPM and BAC are in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. Bank ETF SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you the rising yields on long bonds. Now, it is spilling into mortgage rates. Mortgage rates hit the highest since August.  Mortgage refinancing demand fell 26% week-to-week. Refinancing is very sensitive to interest rates.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with you that Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) was going nuclear to obtain power for AI data centers.&nbsp; Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) is now signing an agreement with Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/D#NYSE">D</a>) to explore developing a small modular reactor near North Anna nuclear station.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">U.K.</h3>
In the U.K., new data shows that inflation is running below 2% for the first time since 2021.
<ul>
<li>CPI came at 0.0% month-over-month vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>CPI came at 1.7% year-over-year vs. 1.9% consensus.</li>
</ul>
Historically, the U.K. has preceded the U.S. by several months. For this reason, it is important to pay attention to U.K. economic data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) bulls are excited.&nbsp; Bitcoin gurus are proclaiming that this time bitcoin is going to breakout and rocket to $100K.&nbsp; Bitcoin is trading above $67K as of this writing.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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King Nvidia Technicals Will Determine The Stock Market Direction — Overreaction To ASML Earnings

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), issued a stark warning about challenges that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/10/41122659/jamie-dimon-slams-early-career-private-equity-moves-saying-it-puts-us-in-a-bad-position">could affect the U.S. economy</a>.
What Happened: In the bank&#8217;s third-quarter earnings release, Dimon highlighted several critical global risks that could disrupt both economic and geopolitical stability.
Dimon, who heads the nation&#8217;s largest bank, noted concerns around slowing inflation, fiscal deficits, and global trade disruptions, and warned that geopolitical instability could have profound long-term consequences, Fox Business <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jamie-dimon-warns-critical-issues-could-affect-us-economy">reports</a>. He noted the importance of preparing for unpredictable outcomes.
Dimon also pointed to the need for a robust approach to handling infrastructure needs and warned that remilitarization efforts globally could increase instability.
&#8220;We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time, and recent events show that conditions are treacherous and getting worse,&#8221; Dimon said in the news release.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/10/41291074/dimon-calls-out-red-tape-says-its-deeply-frustrating-america-isnt-solving-its-problems">Dimon Calls Out Red Tape – Says It&#8217;s &#8216;Deeply Frustrating&#8217; America Isn&#8217;t Solving Its Problems</a>
&#8220;There is significant human suffering, and the outcome of these situations could have far-reaching effects on both short-term economic outcomes and more importantly on the course of history,&#8221; he added. 
While acknowledging the resilience of the U.S. economy, Dimon – who has been floated as a possible future Treasury secretary or Federal Reserve chair – said that the U.S. must get its fiscal house in order.
&#8220;Additionally, while&nbsp;inflation is slowing&nbsp;and the U.S. economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,&#8217; Dimon said. 
&#8220;While we hope for the best, these events and the prevailing uncertainty demonstrate why we must be prepared for any environment,&#8221; he added. 
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/10/41192406/jamie-dimon-rejects-trump-endorsement-claim-casting-doubt-on-treasury-rumors">Jamie Dimon Rejects Trump Endorsement Claim, Casting Doubt On Treasury Rumors</a>
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Jamie Dimon Warns Of Global Risks To Economy: 'Treacherous And Getting Worse'

Bank of America has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/09/41003610/veteran-investor-mark-moss-predicts-bitcoin-to-surge-to-300k-if-donald-trump-wins-the-elec">spotlighted three sectors</a> that could benefit from the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rare dual approach of rate cuts and rising corporate profits.
What Happened: Savita Subramanian, BofA&#8217;s head of U.S. equity and strategy, referred to this situation as a &#8220;rare double whammy of stimulus&#8221; during her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-vbFcslt8Q">appearance</a> on CNBC on Monday. 
She recommended investors focus on value stocks in real estate, financials, and energy sectors.
Subramanian noted that value stocks, which trade below their fundamental value, tend to outperform when profits rise and rates fall. This scenario reduces the need for hedging and encourages investment in higher-upside names.
&#8220;I think about where these assets sitting in retiree accounts and money market funds are going; I think they&#8217;re going into safe, stable income. That&#8217;s more value than growth,&#8221; she said.
Real estate benefits from significant investments in data centers, crucial for artificial intelligence infrastructure, while financials and energy sectors have improved their quality and capital returns since the last decade. 
Subramanian emphasized the appeal of high dividends in these sectors as short-term yields decline, making dividend-yielding stocks attractive for income-seeking investors.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/09/41081939/trump-wants-us-to-be-bitcoin-mining-capital-of-the-world-core-scientifics-move-to-buy-chip?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Wants US To Be Bitcoin Mining Capital Of The World</a>
The following ETFs are notable performers within their respective sectors. In the real estate category, iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USRT#NYSE">USRT</a>), Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>), and SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RWR#NYSE">RWR</a>) stand out as top options.
In the financial sector, SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAT#NYSE">IAT</a>), and SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) have emerged as leading performers. 
For those looking into energy investments, Direxion Energy Bull 2X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ERX#NYSE">ERX</a>), Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FENY#NYSE">FENY</a>), and SPDR Select Sector Fund &#8211; Energy Select Sector (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) represent some of the top options.
Why It Matters: The identification of these value sectors comes at a time of significant economic and political uncertainty. Investors are currently grappling with U.S. economic uncertainty, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming presidential election.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a key gauge for measuring protection against <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/09/40796352/trump-vs-harris-u-s-stock-market-faces-rising-risks-amid-economic-uncertainty-and-2024-election">stock market fluctuations</a>, has climbed to around 20, a significant rise from its 2024 average of 14.8. This surge in volatility is a typical pattern during election years, as investors weigh the market implications of policy proposals from candidates.
Steve Eisman, known for his role in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40951546/big-short-fame-investor-drops-previous-prediction-of-trump-victory-the-market-is-going-straight-">predicting the 2008 financial crisis</a>, recently withdrew his prediction of a Trump victory, adding uncertainty to market forecasts. 
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/41097541/amazon-apple-tesla-brace-for-supply-chain-disruptions-as-potential-east-coast-dockworkers-strike?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Amazon, Apple, Tesla Brace For Supply Chain Disruptions As Potential East Coast Dockworkers Strike Nears</a></li>
</ul>
Image Via Shutterstock 
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Long Ideas

Trading Ideas

FENY

iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks Index Fund

SCHH

USRT

BofA Highlights 3 Value Sectors Amid Fed's 'Rare Double Whammy' Of Stimulus

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen Says Banking System Is Well Capitalized

Macro Notification

China's Financial Regulator Says Banks Are Encouraged To Support Loan Renewals For Borrowers Facing Temporary Financial Difficulties; Medium-Sized Firms With Working Capital Loans Due By Sept 30, 2027, May Receive Renewal Support Similar To That Available For Small And Micro Firms

FDIC Board Votes 3-2 To Adopt Bank Merger Guidance

Financials allocations top all-time high – BofA's Global FMS

Despite Fed's hawkish tone, Wells Fargo forecasts 'solid growth in 2025'

2025 Perspectives: Optimism Through The Obstacles

Unusual total active option classes on open include: iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index Fund (IWF), SPDR S&P Bank (KBE), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), A...

Unusually active option classes on open December 20th

SPDR S&P Bank ETF declares quarterly distribution of $0.3384

Mapping Out The 2025 Investment Landscape Across Asset Classes

Fed mulls major changes to bank stress tests due to 'evolving legal landscape'

Top-rated Bank stocks by SA Quant metrics: WFC, PBAM, TCBX, and more

Banks: Rising Bond Yields Give Cause For Concern

S&P 500 Earnings Update: Q3 '24 Earnings Were Solid; Q4 '24 Looks Even Stronger

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