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Trump pausa aranceles, pero JPMorgan advierte riesgo de recesión. Conoce el impacto en el S&amp;P 500 y las oportunidades globales.

Qué dice JPMorgan sobre la pausa arancelaria de Trump y el futuro del S&amp;P 500

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El oro supera al S&amp;P 500 con su mejor rendimiento en 13 años. ¿Seguirá subiendo? Analistas ven potencial hasta $5000.

El oro brilla más que el S&amp;P 500: ¿Superciclo en camino?

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El SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) ha sido el líder del mercado por años, pero alternativas como VOO e IVV le están quitando protagonismo.

¿Sigue siendo el SPY la mejor opción para invertir en el S&amp;P 500?

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The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">90-day tariff pause</a> announced by President Donald Trump&#8216;s administration may offer temporary relief, but JPMorgan analyst Fabio Bassi warns that the macro backdrop remains fragile.
While countries that have not retaliated are spared for now, a 10% blanket tariff stays in place and tariffs on Chinese imports are jumping to 145%. That lifts the average U.S. tariff rate to around 30% &#8211; a significant economic headwind.
Bassi sees the recent move as a tactical timeout rather than a meaningful shift. Even under the unlikely scenario of China being removed entirely from the U.S. import equation, the average tariff rate would only fall back to the 10% level.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Pause, Not A Pivot As Recession Risk Looms</h2>
The size of the tariff-induced tax hike &#8211; estimated at over 3% of GDP &#8211; keeps recession fears alive. Bassi maintains a 60% probability of a U.S. and global recession. His 40% non-recession case hinges on a reversal of the China tariff escalation and a halt to further trade tensions elsewhere.
With sentiment weak and data mixed, macro headlines are set to dominate again. The so-called "Trump put," Bassi notes, was triggered by both a sharp equity selloff and a dysfunctional Treasury market, pushing the administration to ease up.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/25/04/44774273/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-expects-sp-500-growth-forecast-to-be-cut">JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Expects S&amp;P 500 Growth Forecast To Be Cut</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 Faces Binary Path</h2>
JPMorgan has trimmed its S&amp;P 500 year-end target to 5,200, but Bassi lays out a nearly binary risk-reward path. A drawn-out trade war could drag the index toward 4,000, while a meaningful trade breakthrough &#8211; with Europe, Japan and a softened stance on China &#8211; could launch a rally toward 5,800.
Investors in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) should remain wary of their holdings.
In the meantime, he expects markets to remain range-bound, with any short-term bounce vulnerable to fading if not backed by real policy clarity or Fed support.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Global Hedges: China Tech, India In Focus</h2>
As U.S. risks mount, Bassi highlights select opportunities abroad. China tech remains investable, especially given the likelihood of aggressive policy support from Beijing. ETFs like the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) and iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) offer exposure to that rebound theme.
India also gets a bullish nod, with potential policy tailwinds making it a compelling risk-on trade. U.S. investors may want to keep an eye on the iShares MSCI India ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INDA#NYSE">INDA</a>) as a way to diversify away from the choppy U.S. outlook.
Bassi's view is clear: the tariff pause is not a pivot. With macro risks still elevated and the market vulnerable, investors may want to hedge through global plays rather than rush back into the U.S. exceptionalism trade.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44748635/stocks-bounce-off-session-lows-after-trump-says-china-deal-is-going-to-work-out">China Deal Is &#8216;Going To Work Out,&#8217; Trump Says As Stocks Bounce From Session Lows</a></li>
</ul>
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S&P 500 Could Tank To 4,000 If 'Trump Put' Fizzles, Says JPMorgan

President Donald Trump's tariffs against America's trading partners and the subsequent retaliatory measures from China and Europe resulted in major losses for investors across the globe, with no end to volatility in sight. Trade tensions may ease amid expected deals between key countries, but prudent investors are rethinking their long-term strategies.
Dividend stocks have gained significance in this period of market turbulence because of their strong history. A March <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-sp500-dividend-aristocrats.pdf">report</a> from S&amp;P Global showed that dividends have accounted for about 31% of the total S&amp;P 500 returns since 1926.
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A few weeks ago, a dividend investor<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1jic07f/retired_in_2021/"> shared</a> his income report and portfolio details on r/Dividends — a Reddit community with over 700,000 followers. The portfolio screenshots shared by the investor showed he was making about $9,250 per month, or $111,100 annually, in dividends. His total portfolio yield was about 2.3%.&nbsp;
"Dividends and interest cover 60% of expenses. Decent growth without huge volatility," he said.
The investor, 58, said he was a software engineer in Silicon Valley and retired in 2021. He said his goal is to cover his expenses of $15,000 per month with dividends by 2030.&nbsp;
"YOLO'd tech stocks in my IRA," the investor said, referring to the social media slang for taking a bold, high-risk approach.
Trending: Hasbro, MGM, and Skechers trust this AI marketing firm — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/rad-intel">invest pre-IPO from $0.55 per share now</a>.
Let's take a look at some of the key holdings in the investor's portfolio.
iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF&nbsp;
The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHV#NASDAQ">SHV</a>) gives investors exposure to US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of one year or less. SHV is suitable for investors looking for low-risk funds to preserve capital and earn income.&nbsp; The investor said SHV accounted for about 5% of his total portfolio.
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) was another key bond ETF in the investor's portfolio.&nbsp; The fund tracks an index composed of investment-grade US bonds.
See Also: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.</a>
&nbsp;Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
The investor earning about $9,000 in monthly dividends had Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHD#NYSE">SCHD</a>) in his portfolio. Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index and provides exposure to some of the top dividend stocks trading in the U.S., including Verizon (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VZ#NYSE">VZ</a>), Coca-Cola (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), PepsiCo (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEP#NASDAQ">PEP</a>) and Chevron (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>).&nbsp;
iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF
The investor making $9,000 a month in dividends said about 60% of his portfolio was allocated to the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>). The fund tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index and yields about 1.2%. It provides investors exposure to some of the biggest companies in the world, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Apple (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Amazon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>, GOOGL)), among others.
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<li>Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart &amp; Target – <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mode-mobile-2">Many are rushing to grab 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.26/share!</a></li>
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Software Engineer Making $9,000 a Month in Dividends Shares Portfolio, Says He 'YOLO'd Tech Stocks in IRA'

Editor's Note: This article has been updated to reflect that the fund formerly known as the Invesco Defensive Equity ETF is now the Invesco Bloomberg Pricing Power ETF.
The S&amp;P 500's fireworks this week may have lit up Wall Street, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/jeremy-siegel">but Jeremy Siegel</a> isn't buying into the revelry just yet.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Pause Doesn&#8217;t Equal Peace: Trump's Tariff Timeout Isn't The Endgame</h1>
Despite a 9.5% one-day rally that put the index in rarefied post-World War II territory, Siegel <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/jeremy-siegel-says-stocks-are-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-due-to-difficult-china-negotiations-ahead.html">told</a> CNBC's Squawk Box that investors celebrating a tariff truce may be getting ahead of themselves. "We're not out of the woods," the WisdomTree chief economist warned, pointing to the looming uncertainty in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs sparked the market&#8217;s surge, but with the 10% tariff now permanent and China countering with 84% on U.S. goods, this is hardly a peace treaty. 
According to Siegel, investor sentiment remains shaky, still reeling from the initial tariff shock. That means the S&amp;P 500, down 11% from its highs and still negative for April, may struggle to reclaim its February peak anytime soon.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44730455/bearish-sentiment-hits-7-week-high-mimicking-35-year-old-record-which-marked-the-bottom-of-the-october-1990-bear-market">Bearish Sentiment Hits 7-Week High, Mimicking 35-Year Old Record Which Marked The Bottom Of The October 1990 Bear Market</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Next Stop: July 9 and More Trade Turbulence</h1>
The market's next inflection point? Likely July 9, when the next tariff round could escalate tensions further.
For investors riding the broader index rebound, ETFs like the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) have all surged — but Siegel suggests caution.
For investors looking to play defense, sector ETFs like the Invesco Bloomberg Pricing Power ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/POWA#NYSE">POWA</a>) or the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) may offer some shelter.
On the flip side, those still leaning into the rebound could watch the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYW#NYSE">IYW</a>) as tech has led past snapbacks, but remains exposed to global trade flows.
This isn't an "all clear" for risk-on strategies. Bulls may want to wait for more than just headlines before charging back in.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44734009/tech-sector-heading-into-a-period-of-mass-uncertainty-amid-tariffs-and-upcoming-earnings-season-says-dan-ives-the-damage-is-real">Tech Sector Entering A Period Of &#8216;Mass Uncertainty&#8217; Amid Tariffs And Upcoming Earnings Season, Says Dan Ives: &#8216;The Damage Is Real&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/zimmytws">zimmytws</a> via Shutterstock

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Jeremy Siegel Sounds The Tariff Alarm: Bulls May Want To Be Cautious (UPDATED)

Ray Dalio may no longer be steering the investment ship at Bridgewater Associates, but his recent warning on X has left little doubt about <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ray-dalio">where he thinks</a> the world is headed. 
"We're witnessing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders," Dalio wrote, calling it a "once in a lifetime" phenomenon, the kind that "has happened many times in history, when similarly unsustainable conditions were in place."
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">At the moment, a huge amount of attention is rightly being paid to the newly announced tariffs and their significant impacts on markets and economies. But very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them—and to the even bigger disruptions likely still… <a href="https://t.co/wPIgzDscbk">https://t.co/wPIgzDscbk</a>
&mdash; Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) <a href="https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1909296359955460347?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
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The spark? Tariffs. But the fire, Dalio says, runs deeper.
&#8220;These tariff announcements are important developments. But most people are overlooking the much larger forces that are driving just about everything," Dalio said.
While he's not actively managing the fund, Bridgewater's latest 13F filing offers a glimpse into how the firm is positioning itself in the face of this macro upheaval.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44707736/expert-warns-of-perfect-storm-as-trump-tariffs-slam-global-stock-markets-advises-investors-to-seek-safety-in-gold-and-fixed-income-instruments">Expert Warns Of &#8216;Perfect Storm&#8217; As Trump Tariffs Slam Global Stock Markets — Advises Investors To Seek Safety In Gold And Fixed-Income Instruments</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs, Turmoil And A Bet On The Index</h2>
Despite Dalio's big-picture warning, Bridgewater's top holding as of the fourth quarter of 2024 was the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)—now a whopping 22.1% of the portfolio. Add iShares Core S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and iShares Emerging Markets (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>) and nearly half the firm's equity book is riding broad indices.
That's a defensive play wrapped in passive exposure, especially as markets wobble under new trade war concerns.
The fund didn't stop there. Among its top new buys were AT&amp;T Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>), eBay Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EBAY#NASDAQ">EBAY</a>) and PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PYPL#NASDAQ">PYPL</a>) &#8211; low-multiple names that look like classic recession hedges.
Applovin Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>) also made the list, a curious pick that may reflect a contrarian bet on adtech amid volatility.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From Tech Titans To Utility Muscle</h2>
Bridgewater has trimmed back tech allocations to the sector, which fell from 19.8% to 16.3% quarter over quarter. Still, it holds heavyweights like Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), albeit at lower portfolio weights than before.
Meanwhile, two quiet climbers in the portfolio are worth noting: Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CEG#NASDAQ">CEG</a>) and Vistra Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>), both utility players sitting comfortably in the top 10 holdings. In a world Dalio sees veering toward chaos, old-school stability may be back in fashion.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Macro Chaos, Micro Calculations</h2>
Dalio's post paints a stark picture of structural breakdown—"unsustainable conditions" colliding with a new era of tariffs and geopolitical chess. While Bridgewater's allocations don't scream panic, the tilt toward broad ETFs, dividend-value names and utilities suggests the firm is bracing for bumps ahead.
Whether or not the VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world Dalio describes becomes a reality, Bridgewater seems to be preparing for the long game &#8211; passive on the surface but deeply macro-aware under the hood.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/04/44705344/ray-dalio-says-dont-make-the-mistake-of-thinking-whats-happening-now-is-due-to-trump-tariffs">Ray Dalio Says Don&#8217;t Make The Mistake Of Thinking What&#8217;s Happening Now Is Due To Trump Tariffs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

EBAY

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IEMG

PYPL

Here's Where Bridgewater Is Placing Its Bets As Ray Dalio Warns Of 'Once-In-A-Lifetime' Breakdown

Wall Street just got a wake-up call. According to JPMorgan analyst Maia G. Crook, the probability of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/recession">a U.S. recession</a> has surged to 60%, up from 40% last month, thanks to the latest round of tariff hikes.
The "largest U.S. tax hike in nearly 60 years" is expected to hit household and business spending, drag down sentiment and disrupt global supply chains.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs &amp; Tumbling Sentiment</h2>
The tariff war escalated with a fresh 22% hike, pushing fears of retaliation and economic slowdowns to new highs. Crook warns of ripple effects, noting that the uncertainty around trade policies could further dampen business confidence. 
While there's still a 40% chance of avoiding a recession, she cautions that it hinges on "negotiations&#8221; that &#8220;will bring these announced rates down in the coming weeks."
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44456554/trade-wars-fed-moves-and-a-40-recession-risk-is-your-portfolio-ready">Trade Wars, Fed Moves And A 40% Recession Risk &#8211; Is Your Portfolio Ready?</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Markets On Edge: Where To Look Next?</h2>
With recession risk on the rise, broad market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) are under scrutiny.
Investors may look to defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples ETFs, such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) or Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44626085/biopharma-a-safe-haven-as-tariff-turmoil-rages-on">safe havens</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Will The Fed Step In?</h2>
Despite the ominous outlook, Crook sees a path to resilience if global negotiations ease tensions. However, she warns that the administration's approach to tariff calculations "raises questions around the basis for negotiations going forward."
With economic uncertainty mounting, investors may need to brace for volatility ahead.
For now, markets are on edge and recession risk is no longer a distant possibility &#8211; it's a very real threat.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44309742/recession-watch-small-caps-sound-the-alarm-but-credit-markets-shrug">Recession Watch: Small Caps Sound The Alarm, But Credit Markets Shrug</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Federal Reserve

JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk To 60% As 'Largest US Tax Hike' In 60 Years Hits Global Economy

March saw gold post a historic outperformance over U.S. equities, with the bullion on track to beat the S&amp;P 500 by its biggest margin in 13 years. Mounting concerns about trade tariffs, economic growth, and geopolitical instability drove the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">rotation into haven assets.</a>
Gold prices soared 9% in March, delivering their strongest monthly gain since July 2020, as the metal repeatedly notched fresh all-time highs throughout the month.
In contrast, the S&amp;P 500 tumbled 7.6%, creating a nearly 18-percentage-point performance gap—the widest monthly outperformance for gold over U.S. equities since August 2011. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Gold Notches Strongest 1-Month Leap Against S&amp;P 500</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-849317" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1536x793.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Investor appetite has mirrored the price action. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) saw inflows of $2.8 billion in March, building on February's $4 billion intake. 
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) witnessed a massive $18 billion in outflows—the heaviest drawdown since January 2024. However, while SPY bled capital, other S&amp;P 500 ETFs like the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) pulled in $6 billion and $21.6 billion, respectively.
"Investors have been adding gold to their portfolios to diversify, having shunned the precious metal in favor of tech stocks for many years," David Morrison, analyst at Trade Nation, said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is This The Start Of A Gold Supercycle?</h3>
While the rally may seem steep, some believe it's far from over. 
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, has been bullish on gold since mid-2024 and sees the metal hitting $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 in 2026.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven presented a scenario where gold could skyrocket even further.
In what the bank terms &#8220;tail-risk&#8221;—such as rising concerns about the Federal Reserve's political independence or questions around the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status—central banks could increase gold purchases to 110 tonnes per month. 
That type of demand pressure could drive up gold to $4,200 or even $4,500. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Q2 Outlook: What Seasonality, Technicals Tell Us</h3>
Looking ahead, the seasonality of gold provides a mixed picture. 
Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America, said that since 1975, gold has tended to trend flat in the second quarter. But over the past 10 years, Q2 has typically delivered a 3% gain from late April to late May, with the strongest week being April 4–11, during which gold has risen 0.9% on average.
Interestingly, an up March has often preceded a down June, with this sequence occurring 71% of the time. 
On equities, seasonal trends offer some hope. The S&amp;P 500 Index tends to post gains in the second quarter, averaging 2% into mid-June and 1% by quarter-end. April is often weak, but May brings recovery. 
From a technical perspective, Morrison also observed that gold is not as overbought now as it was six weeks ago, helping to ease concerns about a correction. 
"So far, profit-taking has led to shallow dips which have been met with fresh buying," he said. "But this only increases the probability that there will be a bigger pullback at some stage."
Read Now: 
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</ul>
 Image: Shutterstock

Gold Beats S&P 500 By Widest Margin Since 2011 As Tariff Fears Trigger Rush To Havens

Wall Street stumbled Friday as investors hustled to reevaluate their expectations with a hotter-than-anticipated inflation report and growing worries about imminent trade tariffs. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs tracking the broad indexes</a> S&amp;P500 and Nasdaq 100, like SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), The iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), suffered losses as traders processed the most recent inflation reading and an alarming consumer sentiment report.
Inflation Halts Advancements Toward Rate Reduction
The Fed&#8217;s favored measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price gauge, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44535109/feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-rises-more-than-expected-in-february-casting-doubt-on-near-term-rate-cuts">rose 2.5% from the prior year, as expected</a>. Yet the core PCE that is watched most closely, adjusting for fidgety food and energy prices, gained 2.8%, beating expectations of 2.7% and its hottest level in more than a year.
LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach added that the increase in the core PCE print highlights <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44542821/inflation-will-accelerate-in-coming-months-if-april-2-tariffs-take-effect-economist-warns">lingering inflationary pressure</a>. He cited the rising savings rate, which hit 4.6%, as a sign that consumers are increasingly conservative about the outlook of the economy.
Comerica Bank&#8217;s chief economist, Bill Adams, seconded these fears, calling for a deceleration in consumer spending to weigh on real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025. 
Also Read:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44545009/big-moves-at-intelthese-3-etfs-stand-to-benefit"> Big Moves At Intel: These 3 ETFs Stand To Benefit</a>
Market Sell-Off: SPY, IVV And QQQ Take The Brunt
The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">latest inflation figures</a> fueled a widespread sell-off on Wall Street on Friday, as all three major indexes lost heavily. S&amp;P 500 lost 2%, with the Nasdaq 100 losing 2.6%. Consequently, the SPY, an ETF that follows the S&amp;P 500, lost 2%, with QQQ, which follows the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, losing 2.6% on Friday. IVV, another major ETF tracking the S&amp;P 500, also slumped 2%.
Tech stocks were hammered, with all of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44542620/inflation-fears-spark-risk-off-sentiment-as-magnificent-7-drop-whats-driving-markets-friday">Magnificent Seven trading in the red</a>. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) led the decline, dropping 4.3% and 4.9%, respectively. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), one of the highest holdings in SPY, wiped out its previous day&#8217;s gain, falling 3.4%.
Outlook: Volatility On The Horizon For SPY And QQQ
As inflation remained stickier than expected and the Federal Reserve increasingly under pressure to maintain higher rates, volatility in SPY and QQQ can be expected to continue. The slowdown in consumer spending, coupled with higher inflation and trade uncertainties, has created a vulnerable setup for the equity markets.
Though steady real disposable income growth could be a short-term buffer, as analyst Roach cautioned, any deceleration in pay growth would present an even bigger threat to the overall economy. Investors now look to the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next steps and the next steps in tariffs for more guidance in this uncharted economic climate.
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/03/44544012/auto-etfs-tumble-after-trumps-25-import-tariff-move-on-vehicles-made-overseas">Auto ETFs Tumble After Trump&#8217;s 25% Import Tariff Move On Vehicles Made Overseas</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

TSLA

Sticky Inflation Weighs On Markets — SPY, QQQ, Tech Stocks Take A Hit

The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) has long been the go-to choice for investors wanting broad exposure to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">the U.S. stock market</a>. 
But as markets gyrate with fresh economic and geopolitical developments, and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/etf">alternative ETFs gain traction</a>, is SPY still the best bet for your portfolio? Let's break it down.
SPY — a passively managed ETF that aims to mirror the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index — boasts a massive asset base of over $619.47 billion. That makes it the largest ETF of its kind.
Large-cap companies are those with market capitalizations above $10 billion. They tend to be stable and generate consistent cash flows. This makes SPY a relatively less risky investment than mid- or small-cap ETFs. 
As a blend ETF, it holds a mix of growth and value stocks, making it a balanced choice for investors looking for diversification.
Also Read: <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44074852/sp-500-correction-overdue-will-the-markets-sideways-dance-turn-into-a-tumble-focus-on-balance-and-diversification-recommends-analyst">S&amp;P 500 Correction &#8216;Overdue:&#8217; Will The Market&#8217;s &#8216;Sideways&#8217; Movement Turn Into A Tumble? &#8216;Focus On Balance And Diversification,&#8217; Says Analyst</a>
SPY&#8217;s underlying index, the S&amp;P 500, is composed of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies. It spans 25-plus industries.
So far in 2025, SPY is down 1.04%, but it has gained 13.5% over the past year, as of March 6, 10.38 a.m. EST.
In terms of risk, SPY has a beta of 1, making it a medium-risk investment whose performance is at par with broader market movements.
SPY has its largest exposure to the Information Technology sector, which makes up around 30.10% of the portfolio. Financials and Healthcare are the next two largest sectors.
The fund&#8217;s top 10 holdings account for about 36% of total assets. Therefore, a significant portion of its performance is tied to these top holdings: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), 7.18%; Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), 6.01%; and Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), 5.8%.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/01/43354861/vanguards-voo-set-to-overtake-spy-as-worlds-largest-etf-after-record-january-inflows">Vanguard&#8217;s VOO Set To Overtake SPY As World&#8217;s Largest ETF After Record January Inflows</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SPY's Challenged Leadership</h2>
After holding the title of the world's largest ETF for 32 years, SPY briefly lost its crown mid-February to the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), according to ETF.com. While SPY has since reclaimed the top spot, analysts believe it may not hold onto it for much longer, given the growing momentum in other ETFs. Back in 2011, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) momentarily surpassed SPY. However, a better comparison with SPY will be VOO as it offers identical exposure to SPY but at a much lower cost, giving it a major competitive edge.
Some experts even suggest SPY could fall to third place behind iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) later this year if trends persist, according to a report by ETF.com.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Costs Matter</h2>
When choosing an ETF, cost is a crucial factor. The good news? SPY is an affordable option, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.09%. Over the long run, lower fees can make a big difference in your overall returns. The fund also offers a trailing 12-month dividend yield of 1.22%, adding a layer of income potential for investors. However, VOO and IVV both offer a similar strategy at a much lower expense ratio of 0.03%, which are driving some investors to them. 
SPY has dominated the ETF market for decades, and its size and liquidity make it hard to ignore. But as investors become more cost-conscious, rivals like IVV and VOO are giving it stiff competition. If you prioritize liquidity and ease of trading, SPY remains a solid choice. However, if you&#8217;re focused on minimizing expenses, you might want to explore alternatives.
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Image: Shutterstock

SPY ETF Has Ruled For Decades, But Is It Still The Best Bet?

The stock market just got a fresh jolt of turbulence, and traders are buckling up for more. Monday's rollercoaster session saw the S&amp;P 500 index wipe out a staggering $1.5 trillion in value as trade war fears reignited. 
ETFs tracking the index closed lower: the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed lower by 1.75% while the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) were down 1.72% on Monday close.
Related: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/03/44098232/markets-tank-after-trump-confirms-more-tariffs-heres-what-wall-street-is-saying">Markets Tank After Trump Confirms More Tariffs: Here&#8217;s What Wall Street Is Saying</a>
With tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China ramping up, volatility is officially back in business. The VIX has surged over 33% over the past month:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="696" height="449" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/04062926/Screenshot-2025-03-04-at-4.59.09-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-807881" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/04062926/Screenshot-2025-03-04-at-4.59.09-PM.png 696w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/04062926/Screenshot-2025-03-04-at-4.59.09-PM-300x194.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" /></figure>
Chart source: <a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiiwuP0qPCLAxV0Q2cHHSTZBhcQ3ecFegQIMhAX&amp;window=1M">Google Finance</a>
But for investors, chaos breeds opportunity &#8211; if you know how to play it.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. The VIX Is Screaming &#8211; Use It</h2>
The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is Wall Street's fear gauge, and when it spikes, traders take notice. With uncertainty surging, options-based strategies become lucrative. 
Investors can hedge against further market swings with the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UVXY#BATS">UVXY</a>) or the iPath Series B S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VXX#BATS">VXX</a>). 
But beware—these are short-term tools, not long-term holds.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Play Defense With Broad Market ETFs</h2>
When markets get rocky, smart money often rotates into low-volatility and defensive plays. 
The Invesco S&amp;P 500 Low Volatility ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPLV#NYSE">SPLV</a>) offers exposure to less turbulent stocks, while the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USMV#BATS">USMV</a>) helps cushion the downside. 
For those who expect more fireworks but want to stay long equities, the SPY remains a solid way to ride out the storm.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Don't Fight The Tape &#8211; Trade Trends</h2>
With uncertainty swirling, trend-following strategies gain an edge. Investors looking for short-term gains might consider the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SH#NYSE">SH</a>) for bearish exposure or the ProShares UltraPro Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPXU#NYSE">SPXU</a>) for amplified downside bets. 
Meanwhile, gold, often a safe-haven asset, is seeing renewed interest through ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).
With Trump hinting at more "big" announcements by Wednesday night, expect the volatility train to keep rolling. The question isn't whether markets will move &#8211; it's whether you're ready to trade the storm.
Read Next: 
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</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Specialty ETFs

PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio

SPLV

SPXU

USMV

UVXY

Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN

Tariffs, Trump, Tumult: How To Trade The Volatility Surge

ETFs are having a moment. According to a recent EY report, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">global ETF assets</a> under management (AUM) surged to $14.8 trillion last year, with net inflows hitting $1.88 trillion, the highest ever recorded. The U.S. market alone crossed the $10 trillion mark.
Continuing the stroke of fortune, January 2025 brought in an all-time high of $90.3 billion in net ETF <a href="https://etfgi.com/news/press-releases/2025/02/etfgi-reports-assets-invested-etfs-industry-united-states-reached-new">inflows </a>in the U.S. alone, according to research firm ETFGI. So, what's driving this boom?
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/02/43605412/as-trade-war-heats-up-these-etfs-offer-a-safe-harbor-for-investors">As Trade War Heats Up, These ETFs Offer A Safe Harbor For Investors</a>
The Tax Advantage 
A major reason ETFs are so popular in the U.S. is their tax efficiency. Nithin Kamath, CEO of Indian online brokerage platform Zerodha, recently pointed this out in a <a href="https://x.com/Nithin0dha/status/1892493951434969111">post </a>on X. He explained that mutual funds in the U.S. are required to distribute capital gains to investors, making them less tax-efficient. In contrast, ETFs use an ‘in-kind' creation/redemption process, which helps them avoid capital gains distributions, giving investors a clear tax advantage.
This tax efficiency is one of the most underrated reasons why ETFs have taken off in the U.S.
Big Money Is Flowing Into ETFs
Investors are pouring money into ETFs despite broader market volatility. Take what happened on February 24, even as markets declined, ETFs saw massive inflows. According to etf.com, SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) raked in $3.87 billion, iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) pulled in $1.02 billion, Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) saw $883.6 million inflow and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>) brought $365.6 million.
Overall, U.S. equity funds led the way with $3.59 billion in inflows, followed by fixed income ETFs with $1.78 billion and commodities ETFs adding $754.2 million, reported etf.com.
Innovation Is Key
Beyond tax advantages, the ETF industry is constantly evolving, offering investors a growing variety of options:
Active ETFs are on the rise, now accounting for 8% of U.S. ETF assets and attracting nearly half of all U.S. ETF inflows, per EY. According to Morningstar, U.S.-listed active ETFs attracting a record $43 billion in inflows in January. This growth follows 579 active ETF launches on Wall Street in 2024, according to Morningstar.
Single-stock ETFs, which allow investors to take leveraged bets on individual stocks, have grown to $7 billion in assets, said EY.
The outlet also reported that buffer ETFs, offering downside protection, now hold $45 billion, while digital asset ETFs, especially Bitcoin ETFs, have soared in popularity with the five largest products amassing $70 billion in AUM.
More Players Are Entering The ETF Space
As ETF assets continue to grow, more firms want a piece of the action. The EY report highlights that asset managers looking to enter the market typically take one of five routes — develop in-house ETF capabilities (best for large firms), acquire an existing ETF issuer, use white-label ETF providers to launch funds quickly, transform mutual funds into ETFs (57 mutual funds were converted to ETFs in 2024) and newer model in Europe where mutual funds offer ETF-like share classes.
The Road Ahead
With all these trends in motion, the global ETF industry is on track to hit $25 trillion in AUM by 2030, according to EY. 
Between tax advantages, product innovation, and rising retail adoption, ETFs look good to continue their unstoppable growth in the years ahead.
If the past year is anything to go by, the ETF revolution is far from over.
Read Next: 
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Photo: Shutterstock

News

ETFs Are Booming, Here's Why

Did you know there's a way to predict the S&amp;P 500 with an ~85% correlation?
Sounds insane, but it's true.
Here's the surprising logic behind my claim:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="621" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11.png" alt="" class="wp-image-6269" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11.png 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11-300x199.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11-768x510.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
When investors look for long-term bullish S&amp;P 500 signals, they look at:
U.S CPI
U.S. interest rates
U.S. M2 supply (relatively liquid assets in the U.S economy)
This is a mistake.
Although these metrics matter, there's something we commonly forget.
Unlike most countries, the U.S. stock market is global.
German citizens rarely invest in Japanese stocks.
But many will invest in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, etc.
When central banks print money, it enters the economy of that respective country.
A portion of that money goes to citizens who buy food, shelter, clothing, etc.
However, some of them will invest their cash into assets.
A sizable portion specifically goes into the S&amp;P or S&amp;P-included companies.
That's why, if you're investing in the S&amp;P, you can't just focus on U.S. liquidity.
You need to focus on global liquidity instead.
The problem is global liquidity is hard to measure.
Combining M2 and interest rate data from the world's central banks isn't easy.
That's why financial data platforms like Ycharts and TradingView don't have a global liquidity metric.
This is why investors typically track GL from the 5 biggest central banks.
Specifically the:
Bank of Japan
Federal Reserve
Bank of England
European Central Bank
People's Bank of China
These are the most important central banks in the world, and tracking their efforts isn't difficult.
This is where most investors go wrong, when they exclusively track the Fed's monetary policies to predict the S&amp;P's long-term outlook.
But the S&amp;P receives inflows from across the globe.
That's why the decisions of the BoJ, BoE, ECB, and PBoC collectively matter more than the Federal Reserve alone.
Thanks to the U.S. stock market&#8217;s global status, global liquidity is highly correlated.
Popular U.S. stock indexes like the NASDAQ, for example, have a 95% correlation.
Whereas the S&amp;P has an ~85% correlation.
This chart speaks volumes.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="520" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-6268" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2.jpeg 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2-300x167.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2-768x427.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
However, during bull markets, global liquidity sometimes decouples from the S&amp;P.
Particularly when there's particularly bullish news and the market gets excited.
Trump's election victory was a great example of this.
Politics aside, Trump has always been bullish for stocks.
The same can be said about bearish black swan events.
2008, the initial COVID scare, Yen carry trade, Deepseek, etc.
Bullish and bearish signals decouple the market from global liquidity.
But it always realigns.
It's important to remember that there's a delay between global liquidity and the stock market.
It takes time for liquidity to flow into assets and inflate prices.
Liquidity → stocks – fewer shares → lower supply → prices rise
What's the moral of the story?
Don't just analyze U.S. monetary policies.
Monitor the policies of the biggest central banks in the world.
With a delay, you can reliably predict the movements of major U.S. indexes.
&#x2A;&#x2A;
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Large Cap

Exclusives

General

There's a way to predict the S&P 500 with an 85% correlation!

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/george-soros">Billionaire investor George Soros</a> made some bold portfolio adjustments in the fourth quarter, signaling a shift toward growth while easing off defensive bets. 
Soros Fund Management's latest 13F filing shows fresh bets on Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) and small-cap stocks, alongside a significant reduction in its SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) put position.
Meanwhile, the fund trimmed its stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABAF#NYSE">BABAF</a>) and fully exited Oracle Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>), reflecting a shifting stance on Chinese tech.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Doubling Down On Alphabet, Small Caps</h2>
Alphabet emerged as one of Soros' biggest buys, with the fund increasing its stake by 2.55%. 
The firm also ramped up its exposure to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), a play on smaller, high-growth companies. 
This move suggests Soros is betting on a continued rebound in both mega-cap tech and smaller, more volatile stocks.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/02/43816112/hedge-fund-shake-up-tiger-appaloosa-soros-outperform-buffett-icahn-ackman">Hedge Fund Shake-Up: Tiger, Appaloosa, Soros Outperform Buffett, Icahn, Ackman</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cutting Market Hedges, Adding Fixed Income</h2>
Soros Fund slashed its SPY put position by nearly 15%, signaling reduced bearish sentiment on the broader market. &#8216;
The fund also trimmed holdings in The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>), while increasing exposure to Ford Motor Co&#8216;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) debt and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) calls — moves that hint at an evolving fixed-income strategy.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">China Exposure Shrinks As BABA Gets Trimmed</h2>
Alibaba stock took a hit in the fourth quarter as Soros scaled back his position, joining other investors in reassessing Chinese tech. 
Meanwhile, Smurfit WestRock PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SW#NYSE">SW</a>) remained the fund's top holding at 5.71% of the portfolio, with Alphabet and AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AZN#NASDAQ">AZN</a>) rounding out the top three.
Soros' latest moves suggest a more optimistic take on U.S. growth stocks while pulling back on market hedges and Chinese tech bets.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/02/43811538/5-top-tech-stocks-hedge-funds-have-been-bullish-on-in-q4-hint-its-not-nvidia">5 Top Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Have Been Bullish On In Q4 (Hint: It&#8217;s Not Nvidia)</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Hedge Funds

BABA

ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD by Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABAF

ORCL

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

George Soros Makes Fresh Bets On Alphabet, Small Caps: What About SPY Puts And Alibaba?

Following the recent comments from billionaire investor Ray Dalio on &#8220;expensive,&#8221; companies with high valuations, his fund Bridgewater Associates trimmed its positions in six of the &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks during the fourth quarter, while taking a fresh position in Elon Musk-led Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
What Happened: According to its 13-F filing with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission, the &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks witnessed a double-digit cut in their positions at Bridgewater, except Tesla.
<ul>
<li>Decreasing about 40% of its existing holdings, Apple Inc.&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) value in Bridgewater&#8217;s portfolio stood at the lowest among the &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks at $154.559 million, as of Dec. 31, 2024.</li>
<li>Bridgewater held the most Class A Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) shares in the said quarter among the &#8216;Magnificent 7,&#8217; trimming just 17% of its position from the third quarter, valued at $685.513 million.</li>
<li>Positions in Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) were also slashed in double digits from the third to the fourth quarter.</li>
<li>However, Dalio&#8217;s fund added 153,589 shares of Tesla to its portfolio for the first time in three years after the fourth quarter of 2021. It was valued at $62.025 million.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Company</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Sept. 30)</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Dec. 31)</td>
<td>Change (in %)</td>
<td>Value As Of Dec. 31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>)</td>
<td>4,379,337</td>
<td>3,621,308</td>
<td>-17%</td>
<td>$685.513 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>)</td>
<td>4,754,271</td>
<td>3,497,362</td>
<td>-26%</td>
<td>$469.660 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>)</td>
<td>802,202</td>
<td>621,088</td>
<td>-23%</td>
<td>$363.653 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)</td>
<td>870,178</td>
<td>667,036</td>
<td>-23%</td>
<td>$281.155 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)</td>
<td>1,411,643</td>
<td>919,786</td>
<td>-35%</td>
<td>$211.684 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)</td>
<td>1,031,856</td>
<td>617,203</td>
<td>-40%</td>
<td>$154.559 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>153,589</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>$62.025 million</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43431874/billionaire-ray-dalio-raises-valuation-concerns-as-deepseeks-new-model-hits-nvidia-stock-a-great-company-that-gets-expensive-is-much-worse-than-a-bad-company-thats-really-cheap">Billionaire Ray Dalio Raises Valuation Concerns As DeepSeek&#8217;s New Model Hits Nvidia Stock</a>
Why It Matters: Dalio, in a discussion with David Friedberg on the All-In Podcast, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43431874/billionaire-ray-dalio-raises-valuation-concerns-as-deepseeks-new-model-hits-nvidia-stock-a-great-company-that-gets-expensive-is-much-worse-than-a-bad-company-thats-really-cheap">cautioned against</a> solely focusing on &#8220;good&#8221; companies, following the tech stock rout after the popularity of Chinese AI firm DeepSeek. 
"A great company that gets expensive is much worse than a bad company that's really cheap," he warned. Dalio urged investors to prioritize value and consider pricing dynamics, especially in the current economic climate.
He expressed concerns about the &#8220;superscalars&#8221; like Nvidia, highlighting their potential risks. Instead, Dalio advised investors to prioritize productivity, innovation, and disruptive technologies, while carefully considering pricing and global economic trends. He emphasized investing in those developing and utilizing applications that drive positive change.
Despite the changes to &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks, exchange-traded funds took the highest position in the value terms in Bridgewater&#8217;s portfolio. The fund held $4.824 billion and $1.2 billion in ETFs tracking the S&amp;P 500 index and $922.163 million in the ETF tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>ETFs</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Sept. 30)</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Dec. 31)</td>
<td>Change (in %)</td>
<td>Value As Of Dec. 31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>836,965</td>
<td>8,232,049</td>
<td>884%</td>
<td>$4.824 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>)</td>
<td>2,222,834</td>
<td>2,039,343</td>
<td>-8%</td>
<td>$1.2 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>)</td>
<td>17,779,378</td>
<td>17,659,209</td>
<td>-1%</td>
<td>$922.163 million</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43762156/will-markets-be-closed-for-presidents-day-heres-what-investors-should-know">Will Markets Be Closed For Presidents Day? Here&#8217;s What Investors Should Know</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Market Summary

Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Trims Holdings In 6 Of 'Magnificent 7' Stocks Amid Valuation Concerns, Adds This Automotive Stock After 3 Years

On Wednesday, T-Mobile US, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>) disclosed plans to raise 2.75 billion euros ($2.94 billion) by selling 3.150% Senior Notes due 2032, 3.500% Senior Notes due 2037, and 3.800% Senior Notes due 2045 under a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/b43480374/t-mobile-agrees-to-sell-2-75-billion-of-euro-denominated-senior-notes" rel="noreferrer noopener">secondary public offering</a>.
T-Mobile USA looks to utilize the offering proceeds for general corporate purposes, including share repurchases, dividends, and refinancing of existing indebtedness.
Last week, T-Mobile US reported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43300596/t-mobile-q4-earnings-beats-estimates-adds-1-9-million-postpaid-customers-targets-6-million-new-customers-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter revenue</a> of $21.87 billion (versus $20.48 billion Y/Y), topping the analyst estimate of $21.31 billion.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43475015/spotifys-strong-subscriber-growth-and-rising-margins-keep-analysts-bullish" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify Is Still One Of Top 4 Best Ideas For 2025: Analyst</a>
Earnings of $2.57 per share surpassed the&nbsp;consensus estimate of $2.26. However, T-Mobile US&#8217; adjusted free Cash flow of $4.1 billion declined by 5%.
After the quarterly print, at least nine Wall Street firms, including Wells Fargo, Scotiabank, JP Morgan, Benchmark, RBC Capital, BofA Securities, Oppenheimer, and Barclays, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TMUS/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">raised their price forecast</a> on T-Mobile US.
Scotiabank&#8217;s Maher Yaghi expects <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43342887/t-mobile-us-posts-strong-q4-with-subscriber-adds-beating-expectations-analysts-raise-forecasts-on-expectations-of-continued-momentum-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">continued service revenue</a> growth in fiscal 2025, helping generate $17 billion—$17.6 billion in free cash flow. This is backed by growth potential in the suburban, rural, and enterprise mobile segments and additional market share gains in broadband.
Last December, KeyBanc&nbsp;analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded T-Mobile US&#8217;s rating, citing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42470137/t-mobiles-premium-valuation-prompts-downgrade-growth-projections-decelerate" rel="noreferrer noopener">the company&#8217;s acquisitions</a> in the Fiber business at significant multiples that have yet to be proven.
The S&amp;P Telecom Select Industry Index gained 41% in the last 12 months, topping the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&#8217;s over 22% gain.
Telecom companies are known for their cash flow generation, which goes towards paying dividends and buybacks, driving ROE. T-Mobile US currently pays a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TMUS/dividends" rel="noreferrer noopener">quarterly dividend of</a> $3.52&nbsp;per year for a yield of&nbsp;1.48%.
Comcast Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMCSA#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>) raised its dividend&nbsp;by 6.5% Y/Y to $1.32 per share annually and approved a new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43335926/comcast-q4-earnings-beats-estimates-peacock-subscribers-surge-29-dividend-raised-15-billion-buyback-approved" rel="noreferrer noopener">share repurchase program</a> of $15 billion. AT&amp;T (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>) plans to return $20 billion in dividends and $20 billion in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42291862/att-boosts-2024-guidance-targets-22-billion-annual-capital-investment-through-2027-more" rel="noreferrer noopener">repurchases from 2025-2027</a>.
T-Mobile&#8217;s US stock surged over 46% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>).
Price Action:&nbsp;TMUS stock traded higher by 0.23% to $237.80 premarket at the last check on Wednesday.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43475080/paypal-beats-q4-estimates-as-transaction-margins-and-payment-volume-drive-growth-eyes-2025-growth-with-strong-tmd-eps-outlook-ahead-of-investor-day-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">PayPal Transaction Margins and Payment Volume Drive Growth, Eyes 2025 Growth With Strong TMD Ahead of Investor Day: Analyst</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by viewimage on Shutterstock

Financing

Offerings

CMCSA

TMUS

T-Mobile Raises $2.94 Billion To Fund Stock Buybacks, Dividends, and Debt Refinancing

A tectonic shift is underway in the global ETF rankings, as Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) is on the verge of surpassing State Street's SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">in assets under management. </a>
This unprecedented shift, which could materialize in the coming weeks, or even days, marks a pivotal moment in the trillion-dollar ETF industry.
VOO has recorded a staggering $20.5 billion in inflows month-to-date through Jan. 29, its largest single-month influx on record, according to data from ETFdb.com.
This surge in investor demand has extended VOO's streak of consecutive monthly inflows to 26, a rare feat that underscores growing confidence in the fund.
In stark contrast, VOO&#8217;s two main competitors have struggled to attract capital in January. 
SPY has suffered outflows of $10.68 billion, while BlackRock's iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) has lost $2.1 billion.
As a result, VOO's AUM has surged to $617 billion, closing in on SPY's $630 billion. If current trends persist, VOO could soon claim the title of the world's largest ETF.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>January 2025 flows ($ bn)</th>
<th>AUM ($ bn)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF </td>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>617.83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</td>
<td>-10.68</td>
<td>633.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>-2.09</td>
<td>599.57</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: ETFdb.com as of Jan. 29, 2025</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Is VOO Better Than SPY? </h3>
A major factor driving VOO's ascent is its ultra-low expense ratio of 0.03%, which significantly undercuts SPY's 0.09%. 
Cost-conscious investors have increasingly favored the cheaper Vanguard offering, leading to a sustained capital migration.
Since VOO's inception in September 2010, its total return performance has narrowly outpaced both SPY and IVV. 
VOO has gained 446% over this period, compared to IVV's 443% and SPY's 442%, demonstrating a slight but decisive edge.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: VOO Has Outperformed Key Competitors Since Its Inception</h4>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="503" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-1024x503.png" alt="" class="wp-image-758975" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-1024x503.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-768x377.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-1536x754.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">VOO Topped ETF Flows Ranking Over The Last Year</h3>
Over the past year, VOO has led the ETF industry in net inflows, attracting an astonishing $127 billion, according to TradingView data. This figure surpasses IVV's inflows by a margin of $50 billion. 
Meanwhile, the third-highest inflows have been recorded by the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) with $37.6 billion, followed by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>) at $30.5 billion. 
Notably, SPY ranks only fifth, drawing in $30.2 billion, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), the go-to vehicle for Nasdaq 100 exposure, stands in sixth place with $27.3 billion.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>Flows (1Y)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>127.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>77.37 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Bitcoin Trust</td>
<td>37.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF</td>
<td>30.53</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TRUST</td>
<td>30.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1</td>
<td>27.31</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView as of Jan. 29, 2025</figcaption></figure>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/43327699/mohamed-el-erian-says-fed-wants-to-fly-under-the-radar-expects-no-rate-cut-until-june-at-the-earliest">Mohamed El-Erian Says Fed Wants To &#8216;Fly Under The Radar,&#8217; Expects No Rate Cut Until June At The Earliest</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

IBIT

Vanguard's VOO Set To Overtake SPY As World's Largest ETF After Record January Inflows

T-Mobile US Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>) stock gained after it&nbsp;reported its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/01/b43298585/t-mobile-delivers-best-in-class-customer-results-in-2024-as-more-people-joined-the-un-carrier-than" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter results</a> on Wednesday premarket. Here&#8217;s a look at the key figures&nbsp;from the quarter.&nbsp;
The Details:&nbsp;T-Mobile reported quarterly earnings of $2.57 per share, which beat the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">analyst consensus estimate of $2.26</a>.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43230968/att-q4-earnings-307k-fiber-adds-projects-mid-teens-broadband-growth-in-2025" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">AT&amp;T Q4 Earnings: Revenue And EPS Beat, 307K Fiber Adds, Projects Mid-Teens Broadband Growth in 2025</a>
Quarterly revenue came in at $21.87 billion, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $21.31 billion. This is an increase over sales of $20.48 billion from last year.
<ul>
<li>Service revenues of $16.93 billion grew 6% year-over-year.</li>
<li>Postpaid service revenues of $13.50 billion grew 8% year-over-year.</li>
<li>Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $4.1 billion declined 5% year-over-year.</li>
<li>Postpaid net account additions were 263,000 in the quarter.</li>
<li>Postpaid net customer additions were 1.9 million.</li>
<li>Postpaid phone net customer additions were 903,000.</li>
<li>Postpaid phone churn was 0.92%.</li>
<li>High-speed Internet net customer additions were 428,000.</li>
</ul>
CEO Mike Sievert noted that in 2024, more new postpaid customers chose the Un-carrier than ever before, and the carrier had its lowest-ever full-year postpaid phone churn, leading to its third year of more than 3 million postpaid phone net additions. 
FY25 Outlook:&nbsp;T-Mobile expects 5.5 million-6.0 million <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">postpaid net customer additions</a>, a core adjusted EBITDA of $33.1 billion-$33.6 billion. The company sees net cash from operations of $26.8 billion-$27.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $17.3 billion-$18.0 billion.
T-Mobile US stock surged 36% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock through iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>).
TMUS Price Action: T-Mobile stock is up 6.5% at $235.50 premarket at last check Wednesday.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43189382/verizon-q4-earnings-revenue-beat-1-million-mobile-and-broadband-subscriber-adds-business-segment-margin-expands" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Verizon Q4 Earnings: Revenue Beat, 1 Million Mobile And Broadband Subscriber Adds, Business Segment Margin Expands</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Earnings

Guidance

T-Mobile Q4 Earnings: Beats Estimates, Adds 1.9 Million Postpaid Customers, Targets 6 Million New Customers In 2025

Donald Trump's first week in the Oval Office proved to be a blockbuster one for the markets. The S&amp;P 500 surged 1.7%, delivering its best first-week performance under a new presidency since Ronald Reagan <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43122112/us-stocks-likely-to-open-higher-as-president-trump-announces-500-billion-ai-project-oracle-netflix-nvidia-among-stocks-in-focus">took office in 1985</a>.
On Monday, Jan. 27, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43244872/tech-stocks-tumble-on-ai-nightmare-nvidia-eyes-worst-day-since-march-2020-bitcoin-drops-below-100000-whats-driving-markets-monday">tech stocks plummeted</a>. On Tuesday, Wall Street <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43283732/tech-rebounds-after-black-monday-nvidia-rallies-6-gm-plummets-whats-driving-markets-tuesday">attempted a rebound</a>.
Whether this market trajectory will deplete or restore optimism around the corporate earnings season remains to be seen. In the meantime, here&#8217;s a look at three exchange-traded funds that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">mirror the S&amp;P 500 Index</a>.
<ul>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) holds 504 stocks across multiple sectors, including information technology, financials, consumer discretionary, and health care. With an AUM of $549.97 billion, SPY charges 0.09% in annual expense fees.</li>
<li>The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), which comes with an expense ratio of a meager 0.02%, holds 505 stocks, and manages assets worth $472 billion.</li>
<li>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>), another popular choice, offers similar sector allocations and has an expense ratio of 0.03%.</li>
<li>Both VOO and IVV saw gains in line with SPY, as their diversified portfolios factored in the week's broader market rally.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What Moved The Markets?</h1>
Investors welcomed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/43219264/trumps-tariff-plans-ignite-market-rally-pushing-stocks-to-record-highs">Trump's proposal to cut the corporate tax rate</a> from 21% to 15%, expecting the move would drive business growth and investment within the U.S.
Trump also proposed raising taxes on businesses outside of the U.S., a move he said could bring "<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43170854/trump-outlines-economic-reset-at-davos-5-things-you-need-to-know">hundreds of billions, even trillions" of dollars</a> into the economy and boost domestic manufacturing and job creation. Trump also focused on energy, urging OPEC to boost production and lower prices, while signing executive orders to expand U.S. oil and gas production. 
The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/43135764/trumps-500-billion-stargate-ai-plan-puts-3-etfs-in-focus">Stargate AI Infrastructure Project </a>was also introduced, which, backed by OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>), plans to invest up to $500 billion in building AI infrastructure across the U.S., with an initial commitment of $100 billion. This project has the potential to create 100,000 jobs, Trump said.
A strong start to the corporate earnings season also played a big role in the rally.
But on Monday, U.S. tech stocks plunged as word spread of China&#8217;s DeepSeek R1, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43232316/deepseek-jitters-shatter-us-tech-stocks-wipe-out-12-trillion-on-wall-street-analyst-eyes-four-chinese-giants-set-to-benefit">shaking investor confidence</a>.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">The Stocks That Powered The ETFs</h1>
The ETFs saw gains across various sectors, but a handful of stocks stood out as top performers:
<ul>
<li>Moderna (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>): The pharmaceutical giant gained 21.6% last week, buoyed by its innovations in mRNA-based therapies.</li>
<li>Oracle: A key partner in the Stargate AI project, Oracle rose 14%.</li>
<li>Netflix (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFLX#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>): The streaming stalwart also jumped 14% on strong results and upward revision in guidance.</li>
<li>Vistra Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>): The energy company climbed 11.8%, benefiting from bullish sentiments in the energy sector.</li>
<li>Amphenol Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APH#NYSE">APH</a>): Known for its high-tech interconnect systems, Amphenol rose 11.2%, boosted by a positive earnings revision.</li>
</ul>
See Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/01/43253190/deepseek-ai-etfs-take-a-hard-hit-amid">DeepSeek AI Model Sends Shockwaves Through Nvidia, Slams ETFs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock.

MRNA

NFLX

3 ETFs Shine As Trump's First Week Sparks Record Gains Followed By Tech Slump

The first U.S. based exchange-traded fund turns 32 years old today and is one of the most<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs"> popular ETFs today.</a>
Here's a look at the history of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and how much an investment at launch would be worth today. What Happened: Launched with seed funding of $6.5 million, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/01/30529288/worlds-first-etf-turns-30-heres-how-much-money-youd-have-if-you-invested-1-000-when-it-launched" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> became the first U.S. ETF </a>on Jan. 22, 1993.
The ETF was approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission several years after&nbsp;State Street Corp.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STT#NYSE">STT</a>)&nbsp;applied for the fund.
Initial interest in the ETF was poor and the fund was almost closed before investors came around to the idea of using ETFs as investment vehicles.
The success of the SPY ETF led to other financial institutions launching similar ETFs that track the S&amp;P 500 Index, one of the largest and most well-known stock market indexes.
The&nbsp;iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 Index Fund ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)&nbsp;launched in 2000 and 2010, respectively.
Today, the three ETFs that track the S&amp;P 500 are the largest in the world according to&nbsp;<a href="https://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">ETFDB&nbsp;</a>with the following assets under management:
<ul>
<li>SPY:&nbsp;$623.5 million</li>
<li>VOO: $603.1 million</li>
<li>IVV: $594.2 million</li>
</ul>
After posting its worst one-year performance in more than a decade for the 2022 year, the S&amp;P 500 Index, which features 500 leading U.S. publicly traded companies, with a primary emphasis on market capitalization, saw outperformance in 2023, ending the year up over 20% and riding a streak of winning weeks. The ETF followed up the rebound with a 24.9% gain in 2024.
In 2024, the S&amp;P 500 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42678368/sp-500-hits-57-all-time-highs-in-record-breaking-2024-magnificent-7-drive-30-of-nasdaqs-surge">reached new all-time highs </a>on numerous occasions, boosted by soaring valuations for technology stocks.
Here are the current top&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">holdings&nbsp;</a>of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF at the time of writing:
<ol>
<li>Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>): 6.7%</li>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>): 6.6%</li>
<li>Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>): 6.2%</li>
<li>Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>): 4.2%</li>
<li>Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>): 2.6%</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>): 2.3%</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>): 2.3%</li>
<li>Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>): 2.2%</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>): 1.9%</li>
<li>Berkshire Hathaway Class B (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>): 1.7%</li>
</ol>
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43059744/exclusive-can-sp-500-repeat-large-gains-from-donald-trumps-first-term-a-second-time-around-readers-say-this-return-range-most-likely">EXCLUSIVE: Can S&amp;P 500 Repeat Large Gains From Donald Trump&#8217;s First Term A Second Time Around? Readers Say This Return Range Most Likely</a>
Investing $1,000 in SPY Stock:&nbsp;While the idea of ETFs was new at the time, investors who followed State Street into the idea of a new investment vehicle to track the S&amp;P 500 would have been pleasantly rewarded.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF traded at around $43.61 in its first days of trading. A $1,000 investment could have purchased 22.93 shares at the time.
The $1,000 investment would be worth $13,930.20 today based on a price of $607.51 for the SPY at the time of writing. This represents a hypothetical return of $1,293.0% over the past 32 years.
Investors who bought the SPY on Jan. 22, 1993, based on a price of $25.02 adjusted for dividends would have an even larger return. The SPY has an adjusted price of $25.02 when adjusted for dividends, which means a $1,000 investment could have purchased 39.97 shares.
The $1,000 investment would be worth $24,282.17 today. This represents a hypothetical return of 2,328.2% over the past 32 years.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="http://= https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/01/43041374/exclusive-how-high-will-sp-500-go-under-donald-trump-in-2025-readers-are-optimistic-26-say-this">EXCLUSIVE: How High Will S&amp;P 500 Go Under Donald Trump In 2025? Readers Are Optimistic, 26% Say This…</a></li>
</ul>
This article was previously published by Benzinga and has been updated.
Image: Shutterstock

Education

AVGO

Happy Birthday S&P 500 SPY ETF! If You Invested $1,000 In SPY At Launch, Here's How Much You'd Have Today

The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETF market is never dull</a>, and 2025 promises to be no exception. 
In a podcast discussion on Bloomberg, The ETF Store, Inc. President Nate Geraci, along with Bloomberg&#8217;s Eric Balchunas and Vilna Hyek shared their thoughts on what lies ahead. Here's a look at the predictions shaping the conversation.
First up: A fee war. Geraci believes we're about to see some serious competition among the biggest S&amp;P 500 ETFs. Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) are duking it out to become the market favorite. 
With fees already thin at 0.02% and 0.03% respectively, any further cuts could make headlines. "It's about capturing that top spot," said Geraci. Vanguard has a history of passing cost savings to investors as funds grow. It's a win for consumers, but it could squeeze margins for providers.
Also See: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/43001690/exclusive-crypto-commodities-take-center-stage-volatility-2025-direxion-ceo">EXCLUSIVE: Direxion CEO Predicts Crypto, Commodities Will Take Center Stage Amid Volatility In 2025</a>
Coming to the second prediction, Geraci is optimistic that 2025 will bring a wave of approvals for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with some altcoin-focused funds. Why now? The regulatory environment looks set to become more crypto-friendly, especially with potential leadership changes at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 
If Geraci is right, expect a flood of new options for investors looking to ride the crypto wave through ETFs.
Not every innovation, however, is a perfect fit for ETFs. Take private credit ETFs, for instance. While they sound intriguing, Geraci is skeptical. The biggest issue? Private credit is illiquid, and ETFs promise daily liquidity. Throw in potential conflicts of interest — like fund managers acting as both liquidity providers and valuation sources — and it's a recipe for disaster. "The structure just doesn't match the asset," he warned.
Tax efficiency is another trend that's gaining traction. Among those gaining popularity are structures like 351 exchanges, which let investors contribute stocks whose prices have appreciated, to an ETF, without triggering capital gains taxes. These setups aren't just about saving money — they also make ETFs a smarter tool for long-term planning.
Of course, the conversation wouldn't be complete without a word of caution. Leveraged single-stock ETFs have been grabbing attention, but they carry significant risks. Geraci is blunt about it: "It's only a matter of time before one of these implodes." Leveraged ETFs built around sensitive stocks are one sharp dip away from falling off the cliff.
So, what does all this mean for 2025? It's clear that the ETF market is evolving rapidly, with innovation and competition driving the next phase of growth. But as always, investors should keep an eye on the risks. As Geraci put it, "These aren't just investment calls — they're predictions about the forces reshaping the ETF industry." 
Here's hoping 2025 lives up to the hype.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/content/43076066/top-etfs-that-beat-the-market-in-2024-and-could-do-it-again">Top ETFs That Beat the Market in 2024 and Could Do It Again</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

ETFs In 2025: Fee Wars, Crypto Booms, And The Risks Ahead

Intel Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) stock gained Friday on reports claiming that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/intel" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the struggling chipmaker</a> is an acquisition target. The stock has plunged 54% in the last 12 months.
Charlie Demerjian of SemiAccurate claimed an email about a resourceful company trying to <a href="https://www.semiaccurate.com/2025/01/17/sources-say-intel-is-an-acquisition-target/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">acquire Intel wholly</a>. However, the report did not disclose the name of the acquirer or the purchase consideration for Intel.
Reportedly, CFO Dave Zinsner had acknowledged the possibility of selling Intel&#8217;s factory and product development divisions. Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus became <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/01/43004444/intel-plans-to-spin-off-5-billion-venture-capital-segment-will-remain-anchor-investor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Intel&#8217;s interim co-CEO</a> after the company fired veteran chief Pat Gelsinger as his turnaround efforts failed to impress the board.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/01/43025761/ai-chip-stocks-gain-momentum-on-taiwan-semiconductor-performance-bidens-semiconductor-sanctions-kick-in" rel="noreferrer noopener">AI Chip Stocks Gain Momentum On Taiwan Semiconductor Performance; Biden&#8217;s Semiconductor Sanctions Kick In</a>
Benzinga has reached out to Intel for comments and will update on receiving their response.
Unlike Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) and Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Intel has failed to capitalize on the AI technology boom.
Intel also failed to make a mark with its AI accelerator business after the Gaudi chip lost out to competitors like Nvidia.
Intel also lost out on the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42826372/intel-struggles-to-compete-with-amd-and-nvidia-in-data-centers-and-ai-chips" rel="noreferrer noopener">PC gaming market</a> to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>).
Under Gelsinger&#8217;s supervision, Intel restructured smaller divisions over the past two years and reduced its workforce in 2024.
Intel is spinning off its Altera chip division, aiming to make it a publicly traded company. However, it continues to own Mobileye Global Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MBLY#NASDAQ">MBLY</a>), Israel&#8217;s autonomous driving firm.
In 2024, Intel also sought to transform its foundry business into an independent unit.
Also this week, Intel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43004444" rel="noreferrer noopener">announced plans</a> to spin off Intel Capital into a standalone fund for greater independence and capital attraction.
Standalone Intel Capital will operate under a new name in late 2025, with Intel as an anchor investor.
Intel showcased&nbsp;an electric vehicle platform&nbsp;with AI and cloud tools at CES 2025, bagging&nbsp;Stellantis (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>), Stellantis Motorsports, and Karma Automotive as clients.
Investors can gain exposure to Intel through Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>).
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Intel Stock Prediction For 2025</h2>
Equity research can be a valuable source of information for learning about a company's fundamentals. Analysts create financial models based on the fundamentals and expected future earnings of a company to arrive at a price target and recommendation for the stock.
Shares of Intel have an average 1-year price target of $22.9, representing an expected upside of 7.56%.
Because of differences in assumptions, analysts can arrive at very different price targets and recommendations. 3 analysts have bearish recommendations on Intel, while 1 analysts have bullish ratings. The street high price target from Northland Capital Markets is $28.0, while the street low from Rosenblatt is $17.0.
Price Action: Intel stock is up 8.47% to $21.35 at the last check on Friday.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/01/43038361/nvidia-continues-strong-demand-for-taiwan-semiconductors-advanced-packaging-despite-technology-shifts" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nvidia Continues Strong Demand for Taiwan Semiconductor&#8217;s Advanced Packaging Despite Technology Shifts</a></li>
</ul>

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