Both Michael Burry, the famed investor behind "The Big Short," and Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EL#NYSE">EL</a>) have strategically reduced their exposure to China – and Burry doubled his bet on the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/hedge-funds/25/06/45986798/michael-burry-saw-it-before-anyone-else-then-estee-lauders-story-took-a-dramatic-turn">global beauty giant.&nbsp;</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Burry Shorts China, Buys EL&nbsp;</h3>



According to its most recent SEC filing, Burry's hedge fund Scion Asset Management <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/05/45499101/big-short-legend-michael-burry-bets-big-on-lipstick-index-is-he-bracing-for-a-recession">doubled its stake</a> in Estee Lauder in the first quarter of 2025.&nbsp;



The firm purchased an additional 100,000 shares in the world&#8217;s second-largest cosmetics company, bringing its total holdings to 200,000 shares.&nbsp;



Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/07/46223791/elon-musks-stupid-actions-will-be-teslas-nail-in-the-coffin-ross-gerber-warns?utm_source=articleShare">Elon Musk&#8217;s &#8216;Stupid&#8217; Actions Will Be Tesla&#8217;s &#8216;Nail In The Coffin,&#8217; Ross Gerber Warns</a>



In the same quarter, Burry closed out all of Scion&#8217;s long positions in Chinese tech companies and opened short positions in several of the same stocks including Alibaba Group Holdings, Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) and JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>).&nbsp;



Burry moves <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/06/45909789/michael-burry-and-top-economist-agree-its-time-to-short-china">could indicate </a>concerns about weak domestic economic growth in China, escalating U.S.-China tensions and a negative outlook on the sector's near-term prospects.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Estee Lauder Reduces China Exposure</h3>



Estee Lauder is contending with its own set of challenges in China. The company reported weaker-than-expected China sales, citing sluggish consumer demand, increased competition from local brands, and a shift in consumer preferences toward domestic products.&nbsp;



Trade tensions and high tariffs have further complicated the landscape, prompting efforts to streamline operations and reduce exposure to China.&nbsp;



As younger Chinese consumers increasingly favor homegrown brands and experiences over foreign luxury goods, Estee Lauder has accelerated product launches and investing in new growth markets such as India.&nbsp;



Last week, Deutsche Bank upgraded Estee Lauder shares to a Buy and raised its price target <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/EL/analyst-ratings">on the stock</a> from $71 to $95. The analysts said that the company's overreliance on China has been addressed and noted evidence of diversified growth beyond China and travel retail.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Beauty And The Bear </h3>



For both Burry and Estee Lauder, China's shifting economic climate, trade uncertainties and evolving consumer habits have made the market less predictable and less profitable.&nbsp;



Estee Lauder's diversification efforts, cost-cutting and focus on new markets might have signaled to Burry that the company is well-placed to weather a downturn and benefit from a recovery, especially if Chinese consumer demand eventually returns.&nbsp;



EL Price Action: Estee Lauder shares have gained more than 25% over the past month, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/?gspk=YWRhbWVja2VydDUzMzY&amp;gsxid=zBMR4PKmcgBw">Benzinga Pro</a>.&nbsp;



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/07/46236537/openai-says-tokens-are-not-equity-no-partnership-with-robinhood-musk-says-ai-companys-equity-is-fake?utm_source=articleShare">OpenAI Says Tokens Are Not Equity, No Partnership With Robinhood: Musk Says AI Company&#8217;s Equity &#8216;Is Fake&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



This image was generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.&nbsp;

Hedge Funds

Movers

Trading Ideas

BABA

Beauty And The Bear: Michael Burry, Estee Lauder Snub China

The official U.S. jobs report for June delivered a surprisingly sharp turnaround from the gloom triggered by ADP private payroll data <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/07/46218795/labor-market-payrolls-june-interest-rates">just 24 hours earlier</a>.



Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, the strongest reading so far in 2025, up from an upwardly revised 144,000 in May and well above economists&#8217; expectations of 110,000. 



The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, also beating forecasts for a rise to 4.3%. It marks the lowest unemployment rate since January 2025. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Government Hiring Leads The Way, Private Sector Growth Slows </h3>



The largest surprise came from government hiring, which contributed 73,000 new jobs—the highest since March 2024. State governments added 47,000 positions, mostly in education, while local government education continued to rise with a 23,000-job increase. 



The federal government, however, shed 7,000 positions and remains 69,000 jobs below its January 2025 peak.



Private sector hiring was less impressive, with payrolls rising by 74,000—well below expectations of 105,000 and down from May's upwardly revised 134,000. Still, it avoided contraction and stood in contrast to the ADP report, which had shown a 33,000 decline.



Healthcare remained a steady driver, adding 39,000 jobs in June, close to its 12-month average. 



Hospitals and nursing facilities added 16,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively. Social assistance roles also grew by 19,000, led by individual and family services.



One sign of cooling came from wages. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% on the month, down from 0.4% in May and below the 0.3% expected. Year-over-year wage growth eased from 3.8% to 3.7%, undershooting the 3.9% forecast.



Also released Thursday, weekly unemployment claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending June 28, down 4,000 from the prior week and below the 240,000 expected. Continuing claims were slightly above forecasts at 1.694 million. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h2>



The U.S. dollar jumped after June's stronger-than-expected jobs report, as traders dialed back bets on a July rate cut—just a day after those expectations surged on weak ADP data.



The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, while gold tumbled over 1% to 3,315 per ounce. Equity futures saw gains, with contracts on the S&amp;P 500 up 0.2% to 6,285 points. 



On Wednesday the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) closed at 570.29 points, setting new record highs. 



Now Read:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46240810/us-stocks-likely-to-open-higher-as-trump-announces-vietnam-trade-deal-sp-500s-golden-cross-reason-to-expect-better-than-average-returns-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Higher As Trump Announces Vietnam Trade Deal: S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Golden Cross &#8216;Reason To Expect Better Than Average Returns,&#8217; Says Expert</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Equities

Macro Economic Events

Economics

Don't Bury The US Labor Market Just Yet: June Jobs Report Beats Every Forecast

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46226585/microsoft-cuts-9000-jobs-in-second-2025-layoff">cut 9,000 jobs in its second 2025 layoff round</a> while Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and OpenAI ignite a talent war with compensation packages reaching $20 million annually, creating stark contrasts in Silicon Valley&#8217;s artificial intelligence landscape.



What Happened: The layoffs affect less than 4% of Microsoft&#8217;s workforce across diverse teams and regions as the company maintains cost controls while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46226585/microsoft-cuts-9000-jobs-in-second-2025-layoff">investing $80 billion in AI data centers</a> this fiscal year. Microsoft&#8217;s gaming division, including Candy Crush parent King, eliminated 200 positions, marking the company&#8217;s continued workforce reduction following 6,000 cuts in May.



Meanwhile, Meta&#8217;s aggressive talent acquisition has sparked unprecedented compensation inflation. Deedy Das, an AI investor at Menlo Ventures, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/in-silicon-valley-it-is-the-summer-of-fomo-2025-6">told</a> Business Insider that three machine-learning engineers at OpenAI and Anthropic received offers between $8 million and $20 million annually from Meta. &#8220;There&#8217;s a ton of ripple effects I&#8217;m hearing in the Valley,&#8221; Das said, describing widespread &#8220;jealousy, envy, and helplessness&#8221; among tech workers not receiving such packages.



The bidding war intensified after Meta recruited Scale CEO Alexandr Wang in a $14.3 billion deal and poached six star researchers from OpenAI for its new Meta Superintelligence Labs. 



OpenAI CEO Sam Altman claimed Meta offered $100 million signing bonuses, though Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46157544/meta-exec-dismisses-openais-sam-altmans-claims-of-100-million-signing-bonuses-sam-is-just-being-dishonest-here">dismissed these claims as dishonest during a company meeting</a>.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46239998/dan-ives-hails-teslas-better-than-expected-q2-deliveries-says-fireworks-come-early-for-elon-musk-led-ev-giant">Dan Ives Hails Tesla&#8217;s Better Than Expected Q2 Deliveries, Says &#8216;Fireworks Come Early&#8217; For Elon Musk-Led EV Giant</a>



Why It Matters: Roy Bahat of Bloomberg Beta noted the talent shortage drives extreme valuations, with only approximately 2,000 researchers capable of building foundational AI models globally. &#8220;In my 20 years in tech, I have never seen as clearly defined a market for extraordinary talent,&#8221; Bahat said.



The competition extends to universities, where companies pressure Ph.D. interns to abandon studies. &#8220;They&#8217;re pressuring them to drop out of school,&#8221; said Bill Aulet of MIT&#8217;s Martin Trust Center for Entrepreneurship. Companies argue AI advances are happening so rapidly that graduation delays could cost career-defining opportunities.



Microsoft&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46226585/microsoft-cuts-9000-jobs-in-second-2025-layoff">third quarter revenue of $70.07 billion</a>, up 13% year-over-year, and Azure&#8217;s 33% growth demonstrate continued AI demand despite workforce reductions. 



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46239208/soham-parekh-accused-of-fooling-yc-startups-while-working-4-jobs-at-once-suhail-doshi-says-he-faked-his-resume-lied-about-his-location">Soham Parekh Accused Of Fooling YC Startups While Working 4 Jobs At Once: Suhail Doshi Says He Faked His Resume, Lied About His Location</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



Photo courtesy: Tada Images / Shutterstock.coma

Tech

MSFT

Microsoft Slashes 9,000 Jobs While Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Poaches $20 Million Worth Of AI Talent From OpenAI: Investor Warns Of 'Jealousy, Envy, And Helplessness' Among Tech Workers In Silicon Valley

U.S. stock futures were slightly higher on Thursday after a mixed close on Wednesday. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading higher.



The stocks were higher following President Donald Trump&#8216;s announcement of a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46239985/peter-schiff-warns-americans-will-suffer-and-vietnamese-will-enjoy-after-trumps-trade-deal-with-hanoi">deal with Vietnam</a> on Thursday in A Truth Social post.



The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange will close at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and stay closed all day Friday. The U.S. bond market will also have an early close at 2 p.m. ET on July 3rd and remain closed on July 4th.



The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.25% and the two-year bond was at 3.76%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing a 74.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its July meeting. 



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.02%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.02%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>0.07%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>0.48%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were slightly higher in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.12% at $621.17, while the QQQ advanced 0.17% to $551.72, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Materials, information technology, and energy stocks led the gains on Wednesday, driving U.S. stocks mostly higher and pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a record high, buoyed by President Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement of a new trade agreement with Vietnam.



Conversely, health care and utilities stocks bucked the trend, finishing the session lower.



On the economic front, the ADP National Employment Report revealed a contraction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June 2025, marking the first monthly decline since March 2023.



In corporate news, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GBX#NYSE">GBX</a>) shares surged 21% on Wednesday following the release of their stronger-than-expected third-quarter results.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.94%</td><td>20,393.13</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.47%</td><td>6,227.42</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.024%</td><td>44,484.42</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>1.31%</td><td>2,226.38</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



Ryan Detrick from Carson Research highlighted &#8220;another bullish sign&#8221; in a recent X post. He pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 index saw a golden cross on Wednesday, July 2.



&#8220;This happens when the faster 50-day MA moves above the slower 200-day MA,&#8221; he explained.



Detrick added that &#8220;All things considered, this is yet another reason to expect better than average returns going forward.&#8221;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Yesterday saw a Golden Cross for the S&amp;P 500. This happens when the faster 50-day MA moves above the slower 200-day MA. All things considered, this is yet another reason to expect better than average returns going forward. <a href="https://t.co/8BwArsug7P">pic.twitter.com/8BwArsug7P</a>&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1940536802605256720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



However, the senior global strategist at Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, said that &#8220;Our feel is that stocks are ahead of themselves, and we are looking to trim positions in overvalued markets and sectors.&#8221;



Wren explained that most market strategists don't want to see the kind of market volatility the S&amp;P 500 Index has experienced over the past four months.



&#8220;But just when a bit of panic set into the minds of some investors, stocks turned seemingly on a dime and in less than three months gained back all that was lost and then some, setting a new record high to close out last week's trading.&#8221;



He also reiterated that Wells Fargo believes the Wall Street consensus is overly optimistic on the tariff outlook and thus the growth rate in calendar-year 2025.



&#8220;Investors could choose to hold those funds or reinvest in sectors more favorable in our work, which include Technology, Financials, Energy, Utilities, and Communications Services. But stocks are not cheap, and investors might also choose to hold those funds to reinvest if the downside volatility we expect develops,&#8221; he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday and Friday:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Initial jobless claims data for the week ended June 28, along with June&#8217;s employment, unemployment, hourly wages, and May&#8217;s trade deficit data, will all be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>June&#8217;s S&amp;P final U.S. services PMI will be released by 9:45 a.m., whereas ISM services data and May&#8217;s factory orders data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>Markets will be closed on Friday, July 4, for Independence Day.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Franklin Covey Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FC#NYSE">FC</a>) dropped 7.82% after reporting downbeat results for the third quarter and lowering its FY2025 sales guidance after the closing bell on Wednesday.</li>



<li>Xponential Fitness Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPOF#NYSE">XPOF</a>) surged 18.63% after the company disclosed in a Form 8 filing that the SEC concluded its investigation without action.</li>



<li>Banzai International Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNZI#NASDAQ">BNZI</a>) declined 3.96% after announcing a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.</li>



<li>FIEE Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MINM#NASDAQ">MINM</a>) zoomed 47.94% after entering into an asset purchase agreement with Suzhou Yixuntong to acquire intellectual property and fixed assets for $1.4 million.</li>



<li>National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FIZZ#NASDAQ">FIZZ</a>) was 0.16% lower after posting in-line earnings for its fourth quarter, while sales topped estimates.</li>



<li>Global Interactive Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GITS#NASDAQ">GITS</a>) skyrocketed 223.31% after it detailed events like CEO ousting, other leadership changes, a strategic divestiture, and unusual stock volatility in a recent filing.</li>



<li>Mira Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MIRA#NASDAQ">MIRA</a>) advanced by 33.87% after the announcement of Mira-55, a synthetic analog of marijuana, providing pain relief comparable to morphine.</li>



<li>Theratechnologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/THTX#NASDAQ">THTX</a>) gained 32.20% after entering into a definitive agreement to be acquired by CB Biotechnology, an affiliate of Future Pak, in a deal valued at up to $254 million.</li>



<li>Xponential Fitness Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPOF#NYSE">XPOF</a>) climbed 20.24% after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission concluded its investigation without any action.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.92% to hover around $66.83 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.13% to hover around $3,352.75 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was higher by 0.03% at the 96.8050 level.



Asian markets ended on a mixed note on Thursday, as India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Australia's ASX 200 indices fell. While South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225, and China&#8217;s CSI 300 indices rose. European markets were mixed in early trade.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46239376/nvidia-intel-broadcom-micron-amd-and-other-chipmakers-stand-to-benefit-as-trumps-tax-bill-increases-incentives-to-make-semiconductors-in-us">Nvidia, Intel, Broadcom, Micron, AMD And Other Chipmakers Stand To Benefit As Trump&#8217;s Tax Bill Increases Incentives To Make Semiconductors In US</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

BNZI

FIZZ

GITS

MINM

MIRA

THTX

XPOF

US Stocks Likely To Open Higher As Trump Announces Vietnam Trade Deal: S&P 500's Golden Cross 'Reason To Expect Better Than Average Returns,' Says Expert

CNBC commentator Jim Cramer pointed out that three tech behemoths, Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Meta (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), have closed the first half of the year at record highs, surpassing their &#8216;Magnificent Seven&#8217; counterparts.



What Happened:&nbsp;Cramer, on Tuesday, pointed out that these companies, which he referred to as the &#8220;M-N-Ms,&#8221; have outperformed their peers, CNBC&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/jim-cramer-says-microsoft-meta-and-nvidia-pulled-ahead-of-the-mag-7.html">reported</a>. He attributed their success to specific developments that occurred during the year.



Microsoft, despite disappointing Wall Street with its Azure cloud business growth in January, managed to turn things around by the end of April, reporting a 33% growth in the segment.



Nvidia, the AI titan, had a shaky start to the year due to competition fears from Chinese startup DeepSeek. Despite a subsequent drop in April due to U.S. government restrictions on its sales in China, the company bounced back strongly in the following months. Cramer attributed this to &#8220;semiconductor&nbsp;superiority and persistent demand from&nbsp;the hyperscalers.&#8221;



Meta, on the other hand, experienced a decline in its stock value at the beginning of the year, in line with the broader trend of growth stocks. However, the company&#8217;s strong advertising abilities, as evidenced by its April earnings, turned the tide.



"Not FANG. Not Magnificent Seven. Just M-N-Ms," stated Cramer. "The sole survivors of a brutal quarter from what used to be the most captivating group in the market,&#8221; he added. 



SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/07/46212089/jeff-bezos-sells-737-million-worth-of-amazon-stock-just-days-after-lavish-venetian-wedding" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeff Bezos Sells $737 Million Worth Of Amazon Stock Just Days After Lavish Venetian Wedding</a>



Why It Matters:&nbsp;Despite the initial setbacks, these companies have managed to bounce back and achieve record highs. This is indicative of the resilience and adaptability of these tech giants in the face of challenges, a quality that is crucial in the ever-evolving tech industry.



Additionally, the success of Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta is reflective of the overall performance of the tech sector. Despite concerns of a potential &#8220;tech wreck&#8221; earlier in the year, the sector has shown remarkable strength, as evidenced by the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46180484/nvidia-palantir-tech-stocks-to-buy-q3-2025-sectors">historic gains</a>&nbsp;made by tech darlings in the second quarter of 2025.



Furthermore, the continued growth and innovation in the AI sector, which has been a significant factor in the success of companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, have led Wedbush&#8217;s Dan Ives to predict that these companies are on track to achieve a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46188671/nvidia-microsoft-on-track-to-achieve-4-trillion-market-cap-says-analyst-dan-ives-tech-bull-market-is-still-early">$4 trillion market cap</a>&nbsp;in the near future.



However, it&#8217;s worth noting that even amid this success, companies like Microsoft have had to make tough decisions, such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46226585/microsoft-cuts-9000-jobs-in-second-2025-layoff">laying off</a> thousands of employees&nbsp;in a bid to control costs.



On a year-to-date basis, shares of Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia surged 19.08%, 17.32% and 13.69%, respectively as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>. 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46239376/nvidia-intel-broadcom-micron-amd-and-other-chipmakers-stand-to-benefit-as-trumps-tax-bill-increases-incentives-to-make-semiconductors-in-us">Nvidia, Intel, Broadcom, Micron, AMD And Other Chipmakers Stand To Benefit As Trump&#8217;s Tax Bill Increases Incentives To Make Semiconductors In US </a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

News

NVDA

'Not FANG. Not Magnificent Seven. Just M-N-Ms:' Jim Cramer Floats New Tech Acronym For These Stocks That Outpaced Peers

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some improvement in the overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the &#8220;Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday.



U.S. stocks settled mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 settling at a record high level during the session after President Donald Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam.



On the economic front, the ADP National Employment Report showed private employers shed 33,000 jobs in June 2025 — the first monthly contraction since March 2023. The sharp miss reinforced market bets that the Fed may ease policy sooner than expected. Economists now expect Friday&#8217;s official nonfarm payrolls report to show a slowdown from 139,000 to 110,000 jobs.



Rate cut odds rose sharply. Markets now see a 25% chance of a July cut and fully price in a reduction by September. A second cut by December is also fully priced in.



The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GBX#NYSE">GBX</a>) shares jumped 21% on Wednesday after the company posted stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a positive note, with materials, information technology and energy stocks recording the biggest gains on Wednesday. However, health care and utilities stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.



The Dow Jones closed lower by over 10 points to 44,484.42 on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.47% to 6,227.42, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.94% to 20,393.13 during Wednesday's session.



What is CNN Business Fear &amp; Greed Index?



At a current reading of 63.2, the index remained in the &#8220;Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday, versus a prior reading of 61.3.



The Fear &amp; Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/07/46218519/jim-cramer-gives-utilities-stock-a-week-says-doge-not-done-clobbering-booz-allen">Jim Cramer Gives Utilities Stock &#8216;A Week,&#8217; Says DOGE &#8216;Not Done Clobbering&#8217; Booz Allen</a> </li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Pre-Market Outlook

S&P 500 Settles At Record High After Trump Announces Trade Deal With Vietnam: Fear Index Remains In 'Greed' Zone

Leading cryptocurrencies rallied sharply on Wednesday as institutional demand fuels optimism.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 10:20 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>+3.09%</td><td>$108,832.24</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+6.72%</td><td>$2,571.03</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+6.21%</td><td>$0.1680</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: Bitcoin rallied to an intraday high of $109,763.65 in the afternoon before profit-taking dragged it back to the $108,000 region.



The upsurge followed news that BlackRock&#8217;s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NASDAQ">IBIT</a>) is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46228970/blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-surpasses-sp-500-etf-in-revenue-as-xrp-dogecoin-etf-approval-predicted-to-follow-soon">now generating more in fees</a> than its flagship S&amp;P 500 fund.



Bitcoin's spike rubbed off on the rest of the market, with Ethereum and altcoins surging significantly.



The upsurge resulted in over $250 million in bearish short positions getting erased in the last 24 hours.&nbsp;



Bitcoin&#8217;s open interest powered 8.71% in the last 24 hours to $74 billion, indicating high speculative interest. Interestingly, over 68% of Binance traders with open BTC positions continued to be short as of this writing.



The "Greed" sentiment intensified from 63 to 73 in the last 24 hours, according to the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index.



Top Gainers (24 Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 10:20 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Bonk (BONK)</td><td>+19.97%</td><td>$0.0000164</td></tr><tr><td>Celestia (TIA)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+17.82%</td><td>$1.61</td></tr><tr><td>dogwifhat (WIF)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+16.87%</td><td>$0.9243 </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.36 trillion, surging 3.49% in the last 24 hours.



Major stock averages bumped during Wednesday's trading. The S&amp;P 500 climbed &nbsp;0.47% to close at a new record high of 6,227.42. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.94%, also closing at a record of 20,393.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the outlier, recording a minor dip to close at 44,484.42.&nbsp;



The rally comes after Trump announced that the U.S. struck a trade <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114784170652465525">deal </a>with Vietnam, a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/04/44726879/vietnam-a-hub-for-us-tech-giants-like-apple-and-nvidia-wants-to-talk-trade-after-trump-pauses-46-tariff">hub for tech giants</a> like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Blockchain analytics platform Santiment said Bitcoin's rally has sparked a FOMO on social media.



"Prices move opposite to retail traders&#8217; behavior, so don&#8217;t be surprised by a brief rally halt while greed is high," Santiment added.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&#x1f973; Bitcoin has jumped to $109.8K today with FOMO setting in across X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, BitcoinTalk, &amp; Farcaster. Prices move opposite to retail traders&#39; behavior, so don&#39;t be surprised by a brief rally halt while greed is high. &#x1f517; Link to chart: <a href="https://t.co/Ak3ITrgSay">https://t.co/Ak3ITrgSay</a> <a href="https://t.co/nG9LcIajEo">pic.twitter.com/nG9LcIajEo</a>&mdash; Santiment (@santimentfeed) <a href="https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1940499298468442591?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



On the other hand, widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader Ali Martinez found Bitcoin's daily chart "promising."



"A daily close above $109,000 could open the door to a rally toward $118,000," the analyst predicted.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Despite the broader quarterly outlook shared in this video, the daily chart for Bitcoin <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> looks promising. A daily close above $109,000 could open the door to a rally toward $118,000! <a href="https://t.co/6v8skxXj0P">https://t.co/6v8skxXj0P</a> <a href="https://t.co/Ohqh3THBIm">pic.twitter.com/Ohqh3THBIm</a>&mdash; Ali (@ali_charts) <a href="https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1940454912779047034?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Photo: Antonio Gravante On Shutterstock.com



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46215827/bitcoins-halving-cycle-is-over-standard-chartered-affirms-what-that-means-for-you">Bitcoin&#8217;s Halving Cycle Is &#8216;Over&#8217;, Standard Chartered Affirms: What That Means For You</a></li>
</ul>

Cryptocurrency

Markets

$BTC

$DOGE

$ETH

AAPL

IBIT

Bitcoin Nearly Hits $110,000 — Ethereum, Dogecoin Also Spike Amid ETF Buzz: Analyst Says Door Open For $118,000 BTC Rally

President Donald Trump has publicly demanded the resignation of&nbsp;Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This call comes in the wake of accusations from the&nbsp;Federal Housing Finance Agency Director, alleging that Powell provided misleading testimony.



What Happened: Trump voiced his demand for Powell&#8217;s resignation on Wednesday via a post on Truth Social, first <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5382677-trump-calls-powell-resignation/">noted</a> on The Hill.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="601" height="226" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02202041/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-9.20.23.png" alt="" class="wp-image-971172" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02202041/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-9.20.23.png 601w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02202041/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-9.20.23-300x113.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 601px) 100vw, 601px" /></figure>



Screenshot from Donald Trump&#8217;s Truth Social Account



The call for resignation followed accusations from Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, a critic of Powell, who claimed that Powell had provided false information during a Senate Banking Committee testimony.



Pulte alleges that Powell lied about the specifics of renovations at the Federal Reserve&#8217;s Washington, D.C. headquarters, particularly a supposed $2.5 billion renovation plan. Powell had previously stated that extravagant features&nbsp;were part of older plans&nbsp;and have since been discarded, while other costs, such as elevator repairs and marble fixtures, were for basic maintenance.



See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46215030/dalai-lama-confirms-he-will-reincarnate-china-claims-approval-rights-over-future-spiritual-leader" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dalai Lama Confirms He Will Reincarnate: China Claims Approval Rights Over Future Spiritual Leader</a>



Pulte argued that Powell&#8217;s &#8220;deceptive&#8221; testimony was grounds for dismissal. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio),&nbsp;chair of the House Judiciary&nbsp;Committee, confirmed that lawmakers will consider calls to investigate Powell, according to the report.



Trump, who appointed Powell in 2017, has been critical of the Federal Reserve Chair for some time, even giving him the nickname &#8220;Too Late&#8221; in response to the Fed&#8217;s decision to maintain steady interest rates.



Why It Matters: This is not the first time Trump has criticized Powell. Last month, Trump accused Powell of keeping interest rates &#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46165110/donald-trump-calls-fed-chair-jerome-powell-a-bad-person-who-keeps-rates-artificially-high-says-benchmark-should-drop-by-half">artificially high</a>.&#8221;



On Wednesday, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, suggested that Trump&#8217;s criticism of Powell was a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46213361/trump-is-slamming-jerome-powell-because-he-wants-a-weaker-dollar-says-ed-yardeni-pounding-powell-pounding-the-dollar">strategic move</a> to weaken the U.S. dollar. 



Earlier, Powell indicated&nbsp;that Trump&#8217;s tariff strategy had <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/07/46213909/jerome-powell-says-trumps-tariffs-deterred-fed-from-easing-monetary-policy-july-decision-to-depend-on-data-wouldnt-take-any-meeting-off-the-table">deterred the Federal Reserve</a> from implementing a more lenient monetary policy. 



Photo Courtesy: Maxim Elramsisy On Shutterstock.com



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This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/shivdeep-dhaliwal" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shivdeep Dhaliwal</a>

Politics

General

Trump Says Jerome Powell Should 'Resign Immediately' After FHFA Director Alleges Fed Chair Lied About $2.5 Billion Renovation Plan

Robinhood Markets Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>) CEO Vlad Tenev clarified the nature of the company&#8217;s OpenAI token giveaway on Wednesday amid growing controversy about the nature of the equities.



What Happened:&nbsp;In an X post, Tenev talked about Robinhood&#8217;s recent crypto event, where it&nbsp;announced a limited &#8220;stock token&#8221;&nbsp;giveaway on OpenAI and SpaceX&nbsp;for eligible European customers. 



&#8220;While it is true that&nbsp;they aren't technically &#8216;equity&#8217;&#8230;&nbsp;the tokens effectively give retail&nbsp;investors exposure to these private&nbsp;assets,&#8221; Tenev stated.



He further added that the giveaway is a precursor to &#8220;something much bigger&#8221; and that many private companies have expressed interest in joining the &#8220;tokenization revolution&#8221; since the announcement.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">At our recent crypto event, we announced a limited Stock Token giveaway on OpenAI and SpaceX to eligible European customers. While it is true that they aren't technically "equity" (you can see the precise dynamics in our Terms for those interested), the tokens effectively give…&mdash; Vlad Tenev (@vladtenev) <a href="https://twitter.com/vladtenev/status/1940547859532612028?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46220570/how-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-could-create-a-big-beautiful-bull-run-for-bitcoin-ethereum-xr" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">How Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Big Beautiful Bill&#8217; Could Create A &#8216;Big Beautiful Bull Run&#8217; For Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP</a>



Why It Matters:&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/25/06/46174854/robinhood-just-made-crypto-simpler-and-way-more-powerful" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unveiled a suite of products</a>&nbsp;during its event in France for its European customers, the highlight of which was blockchain-powered tokenized equities of companies like OpenAI and SpaceX.



However, the novel initiative has run into controversy. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/07/46236537/openai-says-tokens-are-not-equity-no-partnership-with-robinhood-musk-says-ai-companys-equity-is-fake">OpenAI issued a statement</a>&nbsp;clarifying that the tokens offered by Robinhood are not OpenAI equity and that the company has no involvement with Robinhood regarding the product. The Sam Altman-founded firm further cautioned its users, stating that any transfer of its equity requires company approval, which was not granted in this case.



Elon Musk, who was also one of the co-founders, called OpenAI&#8217;s equity &#8220;fake.&#8221; 



The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group that represents the interests of financial institutions, <a href="https://www.sifma.org/resources/submissions/letters/requests-for-exemptive-relief-from-the-federal-securities-laws-for-tokenized-equities-and-other-digital-assets/">urged the SEC</a> to deny digital asset companies the opportunity to offer tokenized equities through specific exemptive relief and instead adopt an &#8220;open and transparent&#8221; process.



Price Action:&nbsp; Shares of Robinhood dipped 1.35% in after-hours trading after closing 6.12% higher at $97.98 during Wednesday&#8217;s regular trading session, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard?_gl=1&#x2A;380nj0&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;MTEyOTAyOTcxMy4xNzEzMzY0NTYy&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTcxNDk4MzIzMi42LjEuMTcxNDk4OTE0Ni4wLjAuMA.." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">data from Benzinga Pro</a>. Over the last week, the stock has surged more than 17%.



HOOD demonstrated high Momentum and Growth scores as of this writing. Want to know how this compares to the highest-weighted stock in your portfolio? Go to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="562" height="238" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02212423/image-32.png" alt="" class="wp-image-971198" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02212423/image-32.png 562w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02212423/image-32-300x127.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px" /></a></figure>



Photo: Bangla press / Shutterstock.



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46189081/what-are-stock-tokens-and-how-to-trade-them-robinhoods-new-offering-merges-owning-stocks-with-blockchain-tech-heres-how-it-works">What Are Stock Tokens And How To Trade Them? Robinhood&#8217;s New Offering Merges Owning Stocks With Blockchain Tech: Here&#8217;s How It Works</a></li>
</ul>



This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/apis?utm_source=benzinga.com&amp;utm_campaign=article-bottom" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"></a>

Fintech

HOOD

Vlad Tenev Says OpenAI, SpaceX Tokens Not 'Technically' Equity After ChatGPT Parent Questions Giveaway, Robinhood CEO Calls It 'Seed' For Something Bigger

Even as U.S. stocks trade at all-time highs, JPMorgan's new mid-year outlook suggests a quiet storm may be forming under the surface—one that could see gold soar, the dollar weaken, and markets reset in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">second half of 2025.</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 May Cool Off—But Not Crash</h3>



In a report shared Tuesday, the investment bank forecasted the S&amp;P 500 — as tracked by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) — to finish the year at 6,000, implying a modest 3.5% pullback from current levels around 6,220.



That would still mark a positive year overall, underpinned by a 12% increase in earnings, with further growth expected in 2026.



"The economy and consumers have shown resilience, and corporates delivered healthy pre-Liberation Day growth of 12% despite the implied aggregate tariff rate surpassing 20%," said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of Global Markets Strategy at JP Morgan.



Yet there are reasons for caution. "We remain open to the economy slowing in the second half of this year at a time when valuation is less supportive," he said, noting that the market may repeat the pattern seen in 2023–2024: narrow leadership and high concentration.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Growth Outlook Trimmed, Inflation Risks Rising</h3>



Inflation is expected to heat up again during the summer months. This could push the Fed's next rate cut to December, according to JPMorgan economists.



"We anticipate this [tariff] shock to generate a broad-based downshift in global growth and a rotation in inflation pressures toward the U.S.," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist. 



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46205961/bitcoin-vs-gold-which-is-better-in-2025">Gold Rarely Beats Bitcoin, But 2025 Could Be Another Blowout Year</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Rally Not Over—Could Hit $4,000 By 2026</h3>



Gold's bullish trend is far from over, with JPMorgan forecasting the metal to average $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 and potentially exceed $4,000 by the second half of 2026.



"For investors, we think gold remains one of the most optimal hedges for the unique combination of stagflation, recession, debasement and U.S. policy risks," said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy.



If JPMorgan&#8217;s gold forecast plays out, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) could climb another 10% by year-end and gain up to 20% more through mid-2026, tracking bullion's surge toward $4,000.



Meanwhile, oil prices are likely to stay subdued due to a growing supply surplus. Kaneva said JPMorgan sees Brent crude trading in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel through the end of the year, barring a severe Middle East escalation.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Weaker Dollar Supports EM Currencies</h3>



JPMorgan remains bearish on the U.S. dollar amid shifting global dynamics. "The main anchors of our bearish USD view remain unchanged," said Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy.



Chandan pointed to fading U.S. growth exceptionalism, expensive valuations, and a buildup of liabilities relative to the rest of the world. 



"Several key conditions seem to define the onset of a USD bear cycle&#8230; Plus, past experience indicates that once initiated, dollar bear cycles can persist for a while," she said.



This environment supports emerging market currencies, which are expected to outperform in the second half. 



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46171994/emerging-markets-stocks-dollar-outlook">A Weaker Dollar Just Unlocked A Surprise 2025 Winner — And Smart Money Is Moving In </a></li>
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Image: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Large Cap

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Specialty ETFs

Commodities

Econ #s

Federal Reserve

ETFs

Something Big Is Brewing In Gold, Stocks, And The Dollar: JPMorgan's Half-Year 2025 Outlook

Alphabet Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>), one of the most dominant players in the Magnificent 7 tech group, is now trading at a price-to-earnings ratio that's historically associated with powerful stock rallies, setting up what could be<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets"> a rare buying opportunity.</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Is A P/E Ratio And Why Does It Matter?</h2>



The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's profit. 



A lower P/E can signal that a stock is undervalued relative to its earnings, especially when compared to its historical average or industry peers.



As of July 2, Alphabet trades at 19.8 times its trailing 12-month earnings. That&#8217;s 16% below its 20-year average of 32, putting it near valuation levels rarely seen over the past two decades. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How Rare Is This Valuation Level For Alphabet?</h2>



The last time Alphabet traded at this low a P/E ratio was in May 2025, when it briefly touched 17.1x. That was just shy of the record low of 16.2x seen on November 12, 2008, during the depths of the financial crisis.



Other low-P/E episodes include June 2011, March 2012 and September 2022. 



Each of those moments came before significant long-term rallies in the stock.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02112640/image-31-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-970679" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02112640/image-31-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02112640/image-31-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02112640/image-31-768x397.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02112640/image-31-1536x794.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/02112640/image-31-2048x1059.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Happened To Alphabet Stock After Previous Low P/E Readings?</h2>



Historical data suggests that buying Alphabet at discounted valuations has been a profitable long-term strategy.



Every time its price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) fell below 20 in the past two decades, investors who stayed the course for a year or more reaped far better returns than usual.



After hitting its record-low valuation in 2008, Alphabet returned 88% in just one year and 68.1% over the next two years. The post-2011 and 2012 recoveries were also strong, delivering gains of 73.2% and 71%, respectively, over the two years.



Even after the September 2022 dip, when Alphabet fell into a bear market with a P/E ratio of nearly 19, the stock rallied 32% over the next 12 months and 51.2% within 24 months.



Across the four historical periods when Alphabet traded below 20 times earnings, the average 2-year return was a remarkable 65.9%, while the 1-year gain averaged 38.5%—more than double its 20-year annualized return of 17.3%.



In contrast, short-term performance was mixed. One-month returns after low P/E events averaged -1.6%, while three-month gains averaged just 2.7%. The real upside consistently showed up after one year or more.



A look at Alphabet's past performance shows a clear pattern: the bigger gains came with patience. 



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Date</th><th>$GOOGL Price</th><th>1-Month (%)</th><th>3-Month (%)</th><th>6-Month (%)</th><th>12-Month (%)</th><th>24-Month (%)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>November 12, 2008</td><td>$7.28</td><td>4.5</td><td>20.2</td><td>32.1</td><td>88.0</td><td>68.1</td></tr><tr><td>June 10, 2011</td><td>$12.75</td><td>2.6</td><td>3.1</td><td>21.7</td><td>11.0</td><td>73.2</td></tr><tr><td>March 30, 2012</td><td>$16.05</td><td>-7.2</td><td>-10.9</td><td>16.9</td><td>22.9</td><td>71.0</td></tr><tr><td>September 14, 2022</td><td>$105.00</td><td>-8.1</td><td>-9.1</td><td>-10.1</td><td>32.0</td><td>51.2</td></tr><tr><td>March 28, 2025</td><td>$154.33</td><td>0.1</td><td>10.2</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>—</td><td>-1.6</td><td>2.7</td><td>15.2</td><td>38.5</td><td>65.9</td></tr><tr><td>Google 20-Year Annualized Return</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>—</td><td>17.3</td><td>—</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Author&#8217;s own elaboration based on TradingView data</figcaption></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is Alphabet Stock Set To Rally Again?</h2>



On March 28, 2025, Alphabet was trading at $154.33 with a P/E of around 17.1. Since then, the stock has posted a modest 10.2% gain over the past three months.



While past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results, the data suggests that patient investors buying at these discounted multiples have often been rewarded.



Read now: 



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